Sunday 10/18/2020 Comps/Bonus Plays,Trends, Betting Info, Etc

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

Good luck! rxb@ll

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

103KANSAS CITY -104 BUFFALO
KANSAS CITY is 14-4 ATS (9.6 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

251CHICAGO -252 CAROLINA
CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) vs. poor defenses (>=5.65 YPP) over the last 2 seasons.

253DETROIT -254 JACKSONVILLE
DETROIT is 7-27 ATS (-22.7 Units) vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game since 1992.

255ATLANTA -256 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 30-15 ATS (13.5 Units) in home games vs. bad defenses (>24 PPG) since 1992.

257HOUSTON -258 TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE is 22-44 ATS (-26.4 Units) in home games as a favorite of 3.5-10.5 pts. since 1992.

259WASHINGTON -260 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf in the last 3 seasons.

261CLEVELAND -262 PITTSBURGH
CLEVELAND is 13-35 ATS (-25.5 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=3.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.

263BALTIMORE -264 PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 35-17 ATS (16.3 Units) vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game since 1992.

265CINCINNATI -266 INDIANAPOLIS
CINCINNATI is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) vs. good defenses (<17 PPG) since 1992.

267NY JETS -268 LA CHARGERS
NY JETS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the last 3 seasons.

269MIAMI -270 DENVER
MIAMI is 43-19 ATS (22.1 Units) against the AFC West since 1992.

271GREEN BAY -272 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season in the last 3 seasons.

273LA RAMS -274 SAN FRANCISCO
LA RAMS are 150-193 ATS (-62.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

Sunday, October 18

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CHICAGO (4 - 1) at CAROLINA (2 - 2) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (1 - 3) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 3) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (0 - 4) at MINNESOTA (1 - 3) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (0 - 4) at TENNESSEE (3 - 0) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 34-56 ATS (-27.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 125-161 ATS (-52.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (1 - 3) at NY GIANTS (0 - 4) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (3 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 0) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 111-81 ATS (+21.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 65-37 ATS (+24.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 74-44 ATS (+25.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (3 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 2 - 1) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (1 - 2 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 1) - 10/18/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 42-64 ATS (-28.4 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (0 - 4) at LA CHARGERS (1 - 3) - 10/18/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS are 51-30 ATS (+18.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (1 - 3) at DENVER (1 - 3) - 10/18/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 43-19 ATS (+22.1 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
DENVER is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GREEN BAY (4 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 2) - 10/18/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 201-146 ATS (+40.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 38-64 ATS (-32.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (3 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 2) - 10/18/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 150-193 ATS (-62.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 77-107 ATS (-40.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 19

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ARIZONA (2 - 2) at DALLAS (1 - 3) - 10/19/2020, 8:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

NFL

Week 6

Bears (4-1) @ Carolina (3-2)
— Bears’ four wins are all by 4 or fewer points.
— Chicago won its two road games, 27-23/30-26.
— Bears are 8-13-1 ATS in last 22 games as a road dog, but 2-0 this year.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 8-3 ATS.

— Carolina won its last three games, outscoring foes 59-21 in first half.
— Panthers are 10-13 ATS in last 23 games as a home favorite; this is first time this season they’re favored.
— Carolina scored 30-31 points in splitting its two home games.
— NFC South non-divisional home teams are 0-4-1 ATS; NFC South favorites are 2-4-1 ATS outside the division.

— Home side won five of last six series games.
— Bears lost three of last four visits here, last of which was 2014.
— Chicago won four of last five games overall vs Carolina.

Lions (1-3) @ Jacksonville (1-4)
— Detroit covered 7 of its last 8 post-bye games.
— Lions gave up 31.8 ppg in their 1-3 start, giving up 15 TD’s on 37 drives.
— Last 4+ years, Detroit is 3-4-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Three of their four games this year went over the total.
— NFC North teams are 8-4 ATS outside their division, 0-0 as road favorites.

— Jaguars lost their last four games, giving up 30+ points in all four.
— Jacksonville allowed 9.1/9.9 yards/pass attempt in last two games.
— Jaguars are 5-3-1 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.
— Jacksonville has been outsacked 17-5 this season.
— AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 0-4 ATS.

— Teams split six meetings; home side won four of the six games.
— Lions won last visit here 31-14 in 2012, their only win in three visits.
— Four of six series games were decided by 15+ points.

Falcons (2-2) @ Minnesota (1-4)
— Falcons fired their coach Sunday, after an 0-5 start.
— Interim coach Morris went 17-31 coaching the Bucs from 2009-11.
— Falcons were outscored 40-10 in first half of last two games.
— Atlanta is 6-8 ATS in its last 14 games as a road underdog.
— NFC South teams are 4-7-1 ATS outside the division, 4-3 on road, 2-3 as underdogs.

— Minnesota is 1-4; their last two losses were both by a point.
— Vikings outscored last three opponents 47-15 in first half, but were outscored 66-40 in second half.
— Minnesota is 18-9-2 ATS in last 29 games as a home favorite.
— Three of their last four games stayed under.
— NFC North teams are 8-4 ATS outside their division, 1-1 as home favorites.

— Minnesota won last four series games, three of them by 10+ points.
— Falcons lost three of last four visits here, losing 41-28/28-12 in last two.

Texans (1-4) @ Tennessee (4-0)
— Texans won 30-14 in first game under interim coach Crennel.
— Houston ran ball for 129 yards LW, after averaging 73.5 mpg in first four games.
— Texans got their first two takeaways of season last week; they’re -5 in turnovers.
— Under is 3-1-1 in their games this season.
— Texans are 7-6-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog, 0-2 this year.

— Titans beat Buffalo 42-16 at home Tuesday, their first game in 16 days.
— In four games, Tennessee already has six TD drives of 30 or fewer drives.
— Tennessee has a +8 turnover ratio, best ratio in the NFL.
— Titans are 3-6-1 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite.

— Home teams won six of last eight series games; these teams split their season series the last four years.
— Texans lost three of last four visits to Nashville, losing by 7-11-3 points.

Washington (1-4) @ NJ Giants (0-5)
— Washington lost its last four games, giving up 31.3 ppg.
— QB Kyle Allen is expected to start; he is 6-8 as an NFL starter.
— Last three games, Washington was outscored 39-7 in second half.
— Last 4+ years, Redskins are 15-12 ATS as a road dog, but 0-2 TY.
— Washington lost its two road games, 30-15/34-20.

— Giants lost all five games, scoring five TD’s on 46 drives.
— Giants are favored for first time this year; they’re 2-4-1 ATS in last seven games as a home favorite.
— Big Blue lost its two home games this year, 26-16/36-9.
— Divisional home favorites are 9-8 ATS in the NFL this year.

— Giants won last three series games, winning 41-35 in OT in last meeting.
— Teams split last four games played here.

Browns (4-1) @ Pittsburgh (4-0)
— Cleveland won its last four games, scoring 37.5 ppg.
— Browns have run ball for 187 yards/game this year.
— Cleveland is also giving up 33.8 ppg.
— Their last four games went over the total.
— Cleveland is 11-18-1 ATS in its last 30 games as a road underdog.

— Steelers had an unexpected bye LW, because of Tennessee’s COVID issues.
— Pittsburgh won its first four games (3-1 ATS), scoring 29.5 ppg.
— Last three Steeler games went over the total.
— Steelers are 3-0 at home this year, winning by 5-7-9 points.
— Pittsburgh is 11-13 ATS in last 24 games as a home favorite.

— Steelers are 12-2-1 in last fifteen series games.
— Browns lost their last 16 visits to Steel City; three of their last four losses here were by 7 or fewer points.

Ravens (4-1) @ Philadelphia (1-3-1)
— Ravens’ four wins are all by 14+ points; they were held to 70 passing yards in their only loss, to the Chiefs.
— Baltimore won its two road games, 33-16/31-17; they’re 7-0-1 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite.
— Four of their five games stayed under the total.
— NFC North non-divisional favorites are 7-2 ATS this year.

— Eagles’ three losses this year are all by 9+ points.
— Last 4+ years, Philly is 5-4 ATS as a home underdog.
— Thru five games, Eagles are minus-6 in turnovers.
— Underdogs covered four of their five games this year.
— NFC East teams are 3-13 ATS outside the division, 0-4 as home underdogs.

— Home side is 4-0-1 in last five series games.
— Ravens lost 15-10/24-23 in last two visits to Philly.

Bengals (1-3-1) @ Indianapolis (3-2)
— Bengals are 3-1-1 vs spread this year, with road losses by 5-24 points and a tie in Philadelphia.
— Cincy is 15-9 ATS in its last 24 games as a road underdog.
— Bengals converted only 10 of last 40 third down plays.
— Cincy allowed 155+ rushing yards in four of its five games.
— AFC North teams are 10-2-1 ATS outside their division, 2-0 as road dogs.

— Colts won their two home games, 28-11/36-7; they’re 11-6-1 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite.
— Indy allowed 27-32 points in its losses, a total of 29 points in its three wins.
— Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— AFC South teams are 4-8 outside their division, 2-2 as home favorites.

— Bengals won four of last six series games, winning last two, 24-23/34-23.
— Cincy lost eight of last nine visits here, winning 34-23 in last visit, in 2018.

Packers (4-0) @ Tampa Bay (3-2)
— Green Bay won its first four games, scoring 38 ppg.
— Packers have gone 3/out only one time on 35 drives, with 17 TD’s.
— Last 4+ years, Green Bay is 6-7 ATS as a road favorite.
— Three of their four games went over the total.
— Packers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five post-bye games.
— NFC North teams are 8-4 ATS outside their division, 0-0 as road favorites.

— Tampa Bay won its first two home games, 31-17/38-31
— Buccaneers have allowed only 58.4 rushing yards/game this year.
— Tampa Bay is 5-12-3 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 1-0-1 this year.
— NFC South non-divisional home teams are 0-4-1 ATS; underdogs are 1-4 ATS.

— Packers won last three series games, by 9-17-6 points- last meeting was in 2017.
— Teams split last four meetings here.

Chiefs (4-1) @ Buffalo (4-1)
— Chiefs were upset at home by the Raiders this week, their first loss in five games.
— Chiefs won both their road games, 23-20OT/34-20.
— KC is 10-7 ATS in last 17 games following a SU loss.
— Under is 3-1-1 in their games this season.
— Chiefs are 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.
— NFC West squads are 11-6 outside the divisional, 2-1 as underdogs.

— Buffalo lost 42-16 in Tennessee Tuesday, its first loss in five games.
— Bills won both its home games, 27-17/35-32.
— Buffalo is 5-9 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog.
— All five Buffalo games went over the total.

— Chiefs won three of last four series games; last meeting was 2017.
— Chiefs won last two visits to Buffalo; last one was in 2014.

NJ Jets (0-5) @ Miami (2-3)
— Jets lost their first five games (0-5 ATS), giving up 32.2 ppg.
— Jets have been outscored 93-29 in first half of games.
— Gang Green lost its two road games, 27-17/36-7.
— Jets are 8-18-2 ATS in last 28 games as a road underdog.

— Miami scored 31-43 points in its wins, 20.7 ppg in its losses.
— Dolphins lost both their home games, 31-28/31-23.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— Miami is favored for first time this year; they’re 5-1-1 ATS in last seven games as a home favorite (last time- week 16, 2018)

— Miami won four of last five series games.
— Jets lost last three visits to South Beach, by by 3-7-8 points.

LA Rams (4-1) @ San Francisco (2-3)
— Rams won four of first five games; this is their 4th road game in five weeks.
— LA scored 30+ points in three of its last four games.
— Rams have outscored opponents 69-23 in second half.
— Under McVay, LA is 14-8 ATS as a road favorite.

— 49ers used three QB’s in their last two games, 25-20/43-17 home losses.
— Road team won all five of their games; Niners are 0-3 at home.
— San Francisco turned ball over six times (-6) in last two games.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— 49ers are underdog for first time this year; they’re 7-10 ATS in last 17 games as a home underdog.

— Teams split last six series games.
— Rams won two of last three visits here (average total, 65).

Broncos (1-3) @ New England (2-2)
— Broncos started three different QB’s in their 1-3 start.
— Denver lost three of first four games, but covered three of the four.
— Broncos have only two takeaways, are minus-6 in turnovers.
— Denver is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog.
— AFC West teams are 8-4-2 ATS outside the division.

— Unclear who will play QB; probably Stidham getting his first NFL start.
— Short week for Patriots, who’ve run ball for 179.8 yards/game.
— New England had two empty trips to red zone LW, which prompted the QB change.
— Patriots are 26-13-1 ATS in last 40 games as a home favorite.
— AFC East non-divisional favorites are 3-1 ATS.

— Patriots are 7-3 in last ten series games; last meeting was 2017.
— Broncos lost last five visits to Foxboro; their last visit here was 2014.
— Both teams had last week off; Patriots had COVID issues.

Cardinals (3-2) @ Dallas (2-3)
— Third straight week on road for Arizona; they’re 2-1 on road so far.
— Arizona allowed 26-31 points in its losses; 20-15-10 in its wins.
— Cardinals have only one takeaway (-4) in their last three games.
— Four of their five games stayed under the total.
— NFC West squads are 11-6 outside the divisional, 2-1 as underdogs.

— Dalton makes his first start for Dallas; he was 70-61-2 as a starter for the Bengals, over his nine years in Cincinnati.
— Cowboys had 440+ passing yards three weeks in row before last week- they’re averaging 76.2 snaps/game, most in NFL- will they keep up that pace?
— Last four games, Dallas has allowed 39-38-49-34 points.
— Last 4+ years, Cowboys are 4-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— NFC East teams are 3-13 ATS outside their division, 0-8 at home.

— Home side won 13 of last 15 series games.
— Cardinals lost four of last five visits here; they won 28-17 last time they played here, in 2014.

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

NFL

Week 6

Trend Report

Sunday, October 18

Atlanta @ Minnesota
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
Minnesota is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

Houston @ Tennessee
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Baltimore @ Philadelphia
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 9 games at home
Philadelphia is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

Detroit @ Jacksonville
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games
Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Detroit

Washington @ NY Giants
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Washington's last 17 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of NY Giants's last 17 games when playing at home against Washington

Chicago @ Carolina
Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

NY Jets @ LA Chargers
NY Jets
NY Jets is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
NY Jets is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 9 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets

Miami @ Denver
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Denver
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Denver's last 17 games at home
Denver is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games

Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Green Bay

LA Rams @ San Francisco
LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games on the road
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco
San Francisco is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Rams

Monday, October 19

Kansas City @ Buffalo
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games

Arizona @ Dallas
Arizona
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
Dallas is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Arizona

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

Betting Recap - Week 5
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Raiders (+10.5, ML +575) at Chiefs, 40-32
Dolphins (+8, ML +300) at 49ers, 43-17
Bears (+3.5, ML +170) vs. Buccaneers, 20-19
Panthers (+2.5, ML +110) at Falcons, 23-16

The largest favorites to cover

Ravens (-12.5) vs. Bengals, 27-3
Steelers (-7.5) vs. Eagles, 38-29
Cardinals (-7) at Jets, 30-10
Rams (-7) at Washington, 30-10
Texans (-6.5) vs. Jaguars, 30-14

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Minnesota Vikings-Seattle Seahawks game on Sunday Night Football was a strange game. For bettors, it was a roller coaster ride full of emotions, good or bad depending on which side of the line or total you were on.

The Vikings (+7) opened up a 13-0 lead at halftime, and moneyline bettors (+263) and 'under' (54) were both feeling really good about themselves. Seattle head coach Pete Carroll said something super inspiring at halftime, because the Seahawks came on out the break on fire. They scored 21 unanswered points in a span of 113 seconds, opening up a 21-13 lead at the midway point of the third quarter. Suddenly, under bettors weren't feeling very good, Minnesota moneyline bettors and side bettors were feeling awful, and the Seahawks were covering for the first time all evening.

The good feeling for Seattle side bettors was short-lived, though. While the struggles of Vikings QB Kirk Cousins in primetime games is well documented, he had a pretty good evening, throwing for 249 yards and two touchdowns. He needed to pick up his play, too, as oft-injured star RB Dalvin Cook went down with a groin injury in the third quarter and was unable to return. That was one of the biggest injuries in all of Week 5, but not THE biggest (see below). Anyway, it's uncertain how long Cook will be sidelined.

The Vikings answered back with 13 unanswered points of their own, taking a 26-21 lead. Then, late in the fourth quarter, head coach Mike Zimmer made a quizzical move. Rather than kicking a field goal, inside the red zone on a 4th and 1, he elected to go for it. Mind you, Cook, their backfield hammer was sidelined. And to be fair, RB Alexander Mattison filled in admirably, even hitting triple digits in a reserve role. But the Vikings were stuffed trying to run it, rather than make it an eight-point game.

The Seahawks have MVP candidate QB Russell Wilson under center, and he calmly and coolly led the team down the field. With 15 seconds remaining, Wilson hit WR DK Metcalf in the right corner of the end zone for a touchdown, as Seattle took a 27-26 lead. For Vikings moneyline bettors, their heart was broken, and it was like losing a second time, after they blew a big lead earlier. For over bettors, they sat on the edge of their seats during the two-point conversion. It didn't happen, though, and wasn't even close. The Vikings never really threatened when they got the ball back with 15 seconds, and under bettors all cashed, regardless if they bet the number early in the week in the high 50's, or at the close of 54. All under tickets were winners.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board among the Sunday slate was the Philadelphia Eagles-Pittsburgh Steelers (44) game. This Keystone State battle ended up being a wild affair featuring plenty of scoring. Steelers rookie WR Chase Claypool became just the third rookie in NFL history to record four touchdowns in a single game, scoring all but one of the home team's touchdowns. This game saw each team score at least seven points in every quarter, totaling 67 in all. With the exception of the New York Giants-Dallas Cowboys (52) game, the Eagles-Steelers was the highest-scoring game on Sunday.

The highest total on Sunday's board was the Jacksonville Jaguars-Houston Texans (54.5) game. The Texans made a change at the top spot, firing Bill O'Brien after last week's disappointing loss to the Vikings. The Texans looked like a brand new team under interim head coach Romeo Crennel, firing off a 30-14 victory as the 'under' connected. The two teams played a scoreless first quarter, one of just two scoreless quarters either on Thursday or Sunday in NFL Week 5. Believe it or not, the Las Vegas Raiders-Kansas City Chiefs game (54.5) featured the other one. The Raiders fired off a 40-32 win, so it was rather surprising that one of the quarters saw zero total points. Of course, the game-total over and first-half over was helped out by 38 total points in a wild second quarter.

The two primetime games in Week 5 saw the 'under' connect in both. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Chicago Bears (44) game saw just 39 total points thanks to 12 total points in the final 30 minutes. At least first-half total (22.5) bettors hit the over with 27 points. We already covered the SNF game, which also went under, with the Los Angeles Chargers-New Orleans Saints (50) game still to be played. Technically the Buffalo Bills-Tennessee Titans (53) game, scheduled for Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET is also going to be in primetime now.

So far this season the over is 6-9 (40.0%) across 15 primetime games. In 2019, the 'over' was just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during primetime games.

Injury Report

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys quarterback was having an MVP caliber season heading into Week 5. He became the first player in NFL history to throw for 450 or more yards in three consecutive games last week. In Sunday's game, he was making headlines for another reason. He suffered a major right ankle injury, and there were reports the bone poked through the skin. He was taken immediately to a hospital and has already underwent successful surgery to repair a dislocation and fracture. It sounds like he'll miss a significant amount of time, and QB Andy Dalton will not take over as the signal caller. The former Bengals QB led the team to a comeback win against the New York Giants, 34-31, but it will be interesting to see if there is a stark drop-off on offense. The Cowboys are +3500 in the future odds to win the Super Bowl, as of Monday morning.

Looking Ahead to Week 6

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Bears and Panthers opened with the lowest total on the Week 6 board at 44 points. Chicago hits the road for the second time this season where they have seen the 'over' connect in both outings, going 2-0 SU/ATS while averaging 28.5 points per game. They have allowed 24.5 PPG in those two outings. The Panthers head into this one on a three-game heater, including a 31-21 win and cover as three-point 'dogs in their most recent home game. The 'under' has hit in their past three outings, going 3-0 SU/ATS. They're averaging 25.0 PPG on offense during their three-game win streak, but allowing just 17.7 PPG.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Browns are on their first four-game winning streak since 2009, and they're 4-1 for the first time since the 1994, and they are 3-0 at home to start a season for the first time since 2004. And they scored 32 points in their nine-point win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, giving them 30 or more points in four straight games for the first time since 1968. All of that scoring will be necessary if they want to cool of the equally hot Steelers, who have fired out to a 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS start, including 'over' results in each of the past three. The Browns are on a 4-0 'over' run.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The 49ers were drummed at home by a 43-17 score against the Miami Dolphins of all teams, slipping as eight-point favorites for the second consecutive week. QB Jimmy Garoppolo returned from injury, but was lifted at halftime with the team facing a 30-7 deficit. QB C.J. Beathard finished up, and at least led the team to 10 points. It appears there might be a quarterback controversy brewing in Frisco, or at least a situation worth watching very, very closely. The Rams improved to 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS with a 30-10 road win over Washington, and they might be a perfect 5-0 if not for a phantom DPI against the Buffalo Bills in Week 3. The Rams hit the under for the first time in three road games in Week 5. L.A. is allowing just 9.5 PPG over the past two games, and they have yielded 19 or fewer points in four of their five outings.

Arizona Cowboys at Dallas Cowboys (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Cowboys will take on the 'new-look' Cowboys, as Dalton makes his first start on Monday night. At least he gets one more day to get prepared for his first starting assignment. Dallas enters this game 2-3 SU/0-5 ATS overall, and they have hit the 'over' in four straight outings. Dallas has registered 31 or more points in four straight while giving up 34 or more during the same span. It will be interesting to see if Dalton can keep up the good production on offense. He has GIANT shoes to fill. The Cardinals got well on the road against the hapless Jets, 30-10, and the Cardinals remained the only team in the NFL to hit the 'under' in all five of its first five games.

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

NFL odds Week 6: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Josh Allen and the Bills stand atop the AFC East at 4-0 SU (3-1 SU), but they've got a tough Week 6 challenge against the Chiefs. The SuperBook opened Kansas City a 3-point road favorite.

There are still two NFL Week 5 games on the docket, but NFL Week 6 odds are on the betting board and already getting action. Among the noteworthy matchups, the Kansas City Chiefs meet the Buffalo Bills, and the Dallas Cowboys – minus injured QB Dak Prescott – host the Arizona Cardinals.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 6 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 6 odds

These are the current NFL Week 6 odds, as of October 13.

Teams on bye: Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints

Chiefs at Bills odds

Opening line
Bills +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This matchup was supposed to be the Week 6 Thursday night game. However, it was moved to next Monday, because the Bills are scheduled to play the Titans on Tuesday night, in a game delayed due to Tennessee's COVID situation. The SuperBook moved forward with posting the Chiefs-Bills line, making Kansas City -3 in the wake of its stunning home loss to the Raiders.

"Outside of their destruction of the Ravens a couple weeks ago, the Chiefs have looked very vulnerable," Murray said. "We haven’t moved off the opener here. I think people are hesitant to weigh in on this game, with so many question marks."

Bears at Panthers odds

Opening line
Panthers -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Carolina nabbed a 23-16 win at Atlanta on Sunday, while Chicago claimed a 20-19 Thursday night home win over Tampa Bay. The SuperBook opened the Panthers -3, and the first move was toward the Bears, as the line ticked to Carolina -2.5 Sunday night.

Lions at Jaguars odds

Opening line
Jaguars +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Jaguars got dumped on the road 30-14 Sunday by the previously winless Texans, while the Lions are coming off their bye week. That was enough for The SuperBook to open Detroit 3-point road chalk, and although the number didn't move, the Lions' price at -3 ticked up to -120.

Falcons at Vikings odds

Opening line
Vikings -3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Atlanta finally fired coach Dan Quinn, after Sunday's 23-16 home loss to Carolina left the Falcons at 0-5. Minnesota, meanwhile, gave unbeaten Seattle all it could handle and probably should've won the game, if not for a questionable late decision by coach Mike Zimmer. Instead, the Vikings lost 27-26.

Still, the Vikings are not in Atlanta-like disarray, so The SuperBook opened Minnesota -3.5. Per standard procedure, the line came off the board once the Vikes kicked off at Seattle, and this game will go back up Monday morning.

Texans at Titans odds

Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF

Why the line moved
The Titans are still trying to battle through their COVID-19 issues, and if all goes well, they'll host the Bills on Tuesday night. So the Texans-Titans line won't hit the board until after the Bills-Titans game.

Washington at Giants odds

Opening line
Giants -3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Giants, who nearly pulled off an upset at Dallas on Sunday, opened -3.5 against Washington, and there was no movement Sunday night.

Browns at Steelers odds

Opening line
Steelers -4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The unbeaten Steelers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) opened -4.5 Sunday evening at The SuperBook. However, the game came off the board soon afterward, due to the uncertain status of Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield.

"We closed this one when it looked like Mayfield (was hurt) late in the win over the Colts," Murray said, alluding to a rib injury that the QB said wouldn't sideline him this week. "Both teams have been impressive. Look for good two-way write here."

Ravens at Eagles odds

Opening line
Eagles +7, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Ravens had no trouble with the Bengals on Sunday, while the Eagles gave the Steelers a good go but fell short. The SuperBook opened Baltimore -7 Sunday evening and moved to -7.5 shortly thereafter.

"Philly looked frisky today in Pittsburgh, but that won’t deter the public," Murray said. "We will need the Eagles again next Sunday."

Bengals at Colts odds

Opening line
Colts -9.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Indianapolis fell to Cleveland 32-23, but that was more respectable than Cincinnati's 27-3 loss to Baltimore, so The SuperBook opened the Colts nearly double-digit favorites. There was no line movement Sunday night.

Jets at Dolphins odds

Opening line
Dolphins -8, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Miami posted an impressive 43-17 road beatdown of defending NFC champion San Francisco, so the Dolphins opened -8 against the hapless Jets. There was no line movement Sunday night.

Broncos at Patriots odds

Opening line
Patriots -9.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This game was supposed to take place in Week 5, first on Sunday, then on Monday. But COVID issues in New England booted the matchup to Week 6 Sunday. It's unclear whether Cam Newton will be cleared to start in the aftermath of his COVID diagnosis. The SuperBook opened the Patriots -9.5, and the first move was a full point toward Denver, with New England dipping to -8.5.

Packers at Buccaneers odds

Opening line
Buccaneers +1, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Green Bay is coming off a bye, while Tampa Bay was dealt a Week 5 Thursday night loss at Chicago. The SuperBook opened the Packers -1 and moved to -1.5 Sunday evening.

"I'd expect the public to abandon the Bucs in a hurry after that loss to the Bears," Murray said. "The Packers have been coming through for the public all season. We will need the Bucs."

Rams at 49ers odds

Opening line
49ers +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The SuperBook opened the Rams 3-point road favorites against the defending NFC champion 49ers, who are struggling at 2-3 SU and ATS after getting boatraced by visiting Miam, 43-17.

"The Rams are quietly 4–1, and the 49ers are a mess. If anything, that score today was misleading. Miami dominated them even worse than the score indicated," Murray said. "It’s really hard to handicap the 49ers right now. So many question marks. The public will be happy to lay the Rams here. This game may close even higher, given the schedule spot on Sunday night."

Cardinals at Cowboys odds

Opening line
Cowboys +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Dallas suffered a huge loss during Sunday's 37-34 victory over the Giants, as Dak Prescott broke and dislocated his right ankle, ending his season. With the Cowboys undermanned, The SuperBook opened Arizona a 3-point road favorite, with the first move to Arizona -2.5.

"No Dak, and the injuries are starting to pile up for Dallas," Murray said. "The public has been in love with the Cardinals for weeks. It will be weird needing Dallas as a home 'dog to Arizona in this game, but that will likely be our position next Monday night."

With a healthy Prescott, Murray said the Cowboys would've opened a short favorite against the Cardinals.

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

NFL betting tips for Week 6: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns are a combined 7-2 Over/Under to start the 2020 NFL season and meet in Week 6 with a Over/Under total of 50 points.

Planning ahead has been tough to do in 2020, with the COVID-19 pandemic leaving a lot up in the air. That’s been the case for the NFL season the past few weeks, with the schedule shaken up in reaction to coronavirus outbreaks.

But even with plenty of unknowns, you want to stay ahead of the action with the sharpest NFL betting strategy. And that means getting the best numbers now or waiting for the market to move in your favor.

Here are our NFL betting tips for the Week 6 odds to bet now and bet later.

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bet now

It didn’t take long for this line to start moving away from the Bucs after their bumbling loss in Chicago on Thursday. Tampa Bay opened strong, holding a 13-0 lead in the second quarter before the Bears defense found its claws. Chicago wouldn’t allow a single point more and the Bears beleaguered offense would do just enough to get the 20-13 victory.

The Packers enjoyed a bye in Week 5 but return to action with a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS mark entering this road stop in Florida. Aaron Rodgers is hoping to have top target Davante Adams back after missing two games (hamstring) and the Green Bay rushing attack continues to chew up the turf behind RB Aaron Jones. The Buccaneers do get that mini bye to lick their many wounds and should have some bodies back on offense. However, the defense lost its linchpin in veteran DL Vita Vea (broken leg) for the season.

This spread opened as big as Bucs -2.5 on Saturday at select books and was quickly steamed over the fence to Packers -1.5. Once the betting public starts looking at Week 6 odds Monday morning, there could be more movement toward the Cheeseheads, so get them as low as you can right now.

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (+2.5): Bet later

Dak Prescott’s ankle injury was as gruesome as it was deflating. The Cowboys captain will be out for the remainder of the season, leaving quarterback duties in the hands of veteran Andy Dalton. Losing Dak is bad but not devastating to the Dallas offense due to the surplus of skill players around Dalton (who’s a pretty solid option at No. 2).

The Cowboys try to move forward after Sunday’s sour win over the Giants when Arizona comes to AT&T Stadium. The Cardinals snuffed a two-game slide by chewing up a cupcake in the New York Jets Sunday and play their third straight road game in Dallas in Week 6. Arizona's defense may be without pass rush specialist Chandler Jones (biceps) for an extended period of time.

This spread hit the board as high as Cowboys +3, but most books are dealing +2.5. The sharp money may be on Dallas early, but the public is going to play against the Cowboys without Prescott. I say wait it out and see if this one goes back to three or higher.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Over 50): Bet now

These AFC North rivalries used to be about hard-nosed defensive football, but this Week 6 divisional matchup is boasting a butt-load of points with an opening total at 50. Both the Browns and the Steelers have plenty of options on offense and are averaging 31.2 and 29.5 points per game respectively.

Cleveland is walking tall after a convincing win over the Indianapolis Colts, hanging 32 points on the NFL’s top-ranked defense. And while Baker Mayfield had X-rays on his ribs following the victory, the results were negative and he sounded fine in postgame interviews. Pittsburgh didn’t show any rust from its sudden bye week (due to Tennessee's COVID outbreak), out-punching Philadelphia 38-29. Combined, these foes have a 7-2 Over/Under record so far in 2020.

If you like the Over in this game – and why wouldn’t you – jump on it now. Those 50-point totals aren’t going to last long and, as of Sunday night, some 50.5 O/U's are popping up.

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (Under 44): Bet later

The Bears got their groove back on defense in Thursday’s win over Tampa Bay. For the first time in two seasons, Chicago caused chaos with three sacks, two forced fumbles (one recovered) and knocked around Tom Brady so bad he couldn’t remember what down it was. As for the Bears offense, it scored 20 or fewer points for the third time this season and the 13th time in the past 21 games.

The Panthers continue to play above expectations, improving to 3-2 SU and ATS with a victory over the floundering Falcons in Week 5. While QB Teddy Bridgewater, offensive coordinator Joe Brady and the Carolina offense get the love for this turnaround, the Panthers stop unit has made it easy. The defense has allowed its last three opponents to muster scores of 16, 21, and 16, playing Under the number in each of those wins.

This total opened at 43.5 points and jumped to 44 with the first action coming in on the Under. We’ve seen some early Over money on Carolina games already this season, so if you like the Under wait it out and get a little greedy. See if you can get an extra half point on this Over/Under before firing away.

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

NFL Week 6 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Sunday's home victory over the Giants. Prescott's injury led The SuperBook to open Dallas +3 at home against Arizona.

NFL Week 5 is almost wrapped up, NFL Week 6 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury news, most notably the atypically gruesome injury that shelved Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for the season.

This week’s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for that information and more.

Week 6 Injuries

Dallas Cowboys: Prescott suffered a broken and dislocated right ankle during Sunday’s home win over the Giants. He had surgery Sunday night and won’t return this season. That led The SuperBook at Westgate to open the Cowboys as 3-point home underdogs to Arizona in the Monday night game, though Arizona quickly dipped to -2.5. With Prescott in the lineup, SuperBook executive director John Murray said Dallas would’ve been a short favorite.

Dallas also lost starting defensive tackle Trysten Hill to a torn ACL.

Kansas City Chiefs: Wideout Sammy Watkins (hamstring) won’t play this week at Buffalo, and might be out beyond that. The SuperBook opened the Chiefs -3 and the total at 55, and neither budged Monday.

Cleveland Browns: QB Baker Mayfield had X-rays on his ribs, following an injury suffered in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s win over Indianapolis. The X-rays came back negative, and Mayfield vowed to play this week at Pittsburgh. The Browns opened +4.5 at The SuperBook, and the first move Monday was to Browns +3.5. The total was steady at 51.

Week 6 Weather

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: The early-week forecast called for a 40 percent chance of rain, but the wind might be the more noteworthy issue, at 17 mph from the east/northeast. The SuperBook opened the total at 50 and was down to 48.5 Monday.

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

Hot & Not Report - Week 6
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 6 Betting Angles

It was interesting to see mostly more of the same regarding last week's scenarios, as teams before their SNF or MNF showcase went 2-2 ATS (3-1 SU).

But more importantly, those readers that had the balls to stick with the trend of fading teams pre-TNF in the outright market were rewarded handsomely if they stuck with fading the Kansas City Chiefs.

Kansas City's game may have already been moved from Thursday Night Football, but they technically still classified as being in that scheduling spot where teams have not performed well this year.

That Raiders win was by far the best result, and it's something that is more likely to continue in Week 6 with the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles slated to open Week 7 with a TNF game.
Both of those NFC East teams are at home this week, as it's their division of atrocity that gets the light shone on it a bit today.

Who's Hot

NFC West teams are a combined 8-2 ATS on the road; Only one division game played so 7-2 ATS on the road vs rest of the league

Quite the run for these NFC West teams away from home, and that's with the defending NFC Champions (San Francisco) sitting with a losing record SU overall right now. But the 49ers are 2-0 ATS away from home this year, as are the Seahawks.

Los Angeles and Arizona both sit at 2-1 ATS on the road, but that Rams loss came up in Buffalo in a contest that could have easily worked out in LA's favor.

Who do you follow?

Cardinals
Rams
49ers
Seahawks

Coming into the year you had to wonder if road teams would achieve even marginally more success with the lack of opposing crowds to deal with, and so far it has been this NFC West division to make the most of the opportunity.

But given that this division has represented the last two NFC Champions and has had a QB on the 3rd team that has been in the MVP conversation in both of those years, continuity was always going to be valuable this year and it's shown in this division.

Week 6 has the Rams in San Francisco on SNF to deal with a reeling 49ers team that's in desperate need of a win, while Arizona's out in Dallas for MNF the following evening. Both are sitting as small road favorites right now which brings a whole other can of worms to the party with popular road chalk in prime time, but it's hard to stand in the way of any of these teams when they are away from home.

The recent successes of Seattle, Los Angeles, and San Francisco have taught those organizations that winning on the road is a must in this league, and this is a trend I would expect to continue to perform rather well long term this season.

Who's Not

NFC East teams are a combined 2-8 ATS at home this year; 2-6 ATS outside of division games

As if some bettors needed another reason to want to fade the Dallas Cowboys yet again, but here we've got Dallas hosting Week 6's MNF game with the NFC West Arizona Cardinals coming into town.

On top of the awful defense the Cowboys have, and the devastating injury situation with quarterback Dak Prescott, this run of futility for NFC East teams at home only adds more fuel to the fire of a market that's likely going to be excited about fading this Dallas Cowboys team already.

How interesting that line gets throughout the week is something to keep an eye on.

Who do you fade?

Cowboys
Giants
Eagles
Football Team

But the Cowboys aren't the only team from this division at home in Week 6, as the Eagels host Baltimore, and the Giants are hosting Washington.

In fact, it's the combination of Dallas/NYG/Philadelphia that accounts for all eight of those ATS losses at home for this division (0-8 ATS combined), and it's Dallas and Philly – the two teams expected to ultimately fight for this division – who are the ones catching points this week.

Maybe the market has finally caught up to these teams, although who knows where the masses sit on the Cowboys now that Prescott is out.

Dallas is always going to be a public team, but as one that's done nothing but burn money in all roles this year, you've got to imagine a good chunk of that support waivers with those results and a backup QB in Andy Dalton now at the helm.

The Eagles are in tough against Baltimore, and the Washington/Giants game is one New York should be able to find a way to get into the win column for the first time this year.

These poor ATS numbers are more then likely to get better for all these NFC East teams at home, but it would still need to be a good spot to back them as well. All four of these teams are still below-average football teams overall, and you don't really want to be going to war with them week after week.

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

Tech Trends - Week 6
Bruce Marshall

Week 6 of the NFL season kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 18 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Sunday, Oct. 18

CHICAGO at CAROLINA

Bears have won and covered first two on road in 2020 after dropping last six vs. spread away from Soldier Field in 2019.
Rhule has won and covered last three in 2020.
Chicago on 20-8 “under” run since late 2018 (“over” first 2 away, however), though Panthers on 7-3-1 “over” run since mid 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to Panthers and “under,” based on team and extended “totals” trends.

DETROIT at JACKSONVILLE

Lions 1-12 SU last 13, Patricia no covers last four as chalk.
Jags 3-2 as home dog since LY Lions “over” 13-7 last 20.

Tech Edge: Jags, especially if dog, and slight to “over” based on team and “totals” trends.

ATLANTA at MINNESOTA

Falcs still winless 0-5 SU in 2020, but did have a five-game road spread cover streak finally stopped by Pack last Monday.
Atlanta “over” 6-3 last nine away.
Vikes “over” 11-5 last 16 reg-season games after Seattle last Sunday night.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

HOUSTON at TENNESSEE

Titans were the odd 3-0 SU/0-3 vs. line first three games of 2020 into Bills on Tuesday.
Tennessee 12-4 SU in Tannehill’s first 16 games as a starter.
Texans closed the O’Brien era dropping last five SU and against line but did win and cover for Crennel last week against Jags.
Titans also “over” 12-4 in Tannehill’s first 16 starts. “Overs” 7-2 last nine in series.

Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Titans, based on “totals” and team trends.

WASHINGTON at N.Y. GIANTS

WFT on 6-2 “over” run since late 2019.
G-Men have won and covered 4 of last 5 in series, though just 1-8 vs. line last 9 at MetLife.

Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Football Team, based on recent “totals” and team trends.

CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH

Home team has covered last four in series.
Browns “over” 7-2 since late 2019.
Prior to covers in last three, Cleveland was on 5-12-1 spread skid.

Tech Edge: Steelers and “over,” based on series and recent “totals” trends.

BALTIMORE at PHILADELPHIA

Ravens on 16-1 SU run in reg season and 6-0-1 vs. spread last seven as visitor.
Eagles on 3-9 spread skid since mid 2019, also 1-6 vs. spread last seven at Linc.

Tech Edge: Ravens, based on team trends.

CINCINNATI at INDIANAPOLIS

Bengals have covered three of last four in 2020 after opener vs. Chargers.
Cincy 6-4 vs. line last nine as visitor (not counting vs. Rams in London LY).
Colts have won and covered three of last four in 2020 and “under” three of those, now “under” 5-3 since late 2019.
Bengals, however, on 6-3 “over” run.

Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on team trends.

DENVER at NEW ENGLAND

Belichick 15-6 vs. line as reg season home chalk since early 2017 (2-0 in 2020).
Broncos 7-3 last ten as dog for Fangio.

Tech Edge: Slight to Patriots, based on team trends.

N.Y. JETS AT MIAMI

Dolphins have covered last four meetings.
Jets no covers first five in 2020, now on 2-8 spread skid since late 2019.
Miami now on 12-5 spread uptick since early 2019.

Tech Edge: Dolphins, based on team trends.

GREEN BAY at TAMPA BAY

Pack 4-0 SU and vs. line, GB also “over” 5-1 last six since late 2019.
If Pack a dog note 5-2 mark in role since LY (both losses last season vs 49ers).
Bucs “over” 3-2 in 2020, Arians teams now “over” 30-14 since mid 2016 with Cards & Bucs.

Tech Edge: “Over” and Packers, based on “totals” and team trends.

L.A. RAMS at SAN FRANCISCO

Rams 11-3 vs. number last 14 as visitor, have also won last three and covered last two at Levi’s.
Rams also “over” four of last five on road.
Niners no covers first three as host in 2020 and 12-6 “over” since early 2019.

Tech Edge: Rams and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Monday, Oct. 19

KANSAS CITY at BUFFALO

After loss to LV, KC now 13-1 SU, 12-2 vs. line last 14 since mid 2019.
Bills 6-3-1 last ten as dog and also “over” first four in 2020 into Titans game on Tuesday.

Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs and “over,” based on recent trends.

ARIZONA at DALLAS

Cards have covered last four as dog for Kingsbury (1-0 TY), 11-4-1 in role since 2019.
Cowboys no covers first five in 2020, also on 17-7 “over” run since late in 2018.

Tech Edge: Cards and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

1/ST INDEX Picks: Sunday's Mandatory GGF Rainbow 6

October 17, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
Closing day of the current Golden Gate Fields racing meet Sunday will produce a mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 jackpot wager. The carryover going into the weekend was $302,135 on the 20-cent base wager. Whether you’re a regular to the circuit or dropping by for the big carryover, the 1/ST BET app can help you bridge the gap with a data-driven process.

Selections provided by the 1/ST INDEX measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

1/ST handicapper Jeremy Plonk provides his human insights to the AI picks for the Rainbow 6 at Golden Gate Fields.

RACE 5 (6:27PM ET) // CLAIMING // 1 1/16 MILES (TURF)

#3 RED BUNTING (6/5) // 25% Win
#4 SURFACE (5/2) // 21% Win
#2 BREAKING THE CODE (10/1) // 20% Win
#6 ALWAYS IN VEGAS (9/2) // 16% Win

Jeremy’s Take: Heavy favorite Red Bunting drops in class and moves to high percentage John Martin barn that’s been hot of late as well. There should be enough early speed (#2,5,6) to set it up for late runner. Single here takes guts, but remember you need all 6 and busting in any leg pays the same.

RACE 6 (6:58PM ET) // MAIDEN CLAIMING // 5 1/2 FURLONGS (ALL WEATHER)

#2 MARK WHATS MINE (5/2) // 23% Win
#5 GOOD TIME DOLLY (7/2) // 17% Win
#8 RACHEL’S LADY (8/1) // 11% Win
#7 SHOUT IT OUT (10/1) // 9% Win

Jeremy’s Take: Just 5 total starts from these 9 juveniles, so there’s not much to go by. 1/ST INDEX algorithm can’t account for some of the first-time starters beyond pedigrees and connections. You’ll want to include Manhattan Grace among the debut runners for leading trainer Jonathan Wong, as well as class-dropping Pretty Mischief. Spread your net in this race.

RACE 7 (7:29PM ET) // STARTER ALLOWANCE // 1 1/6 MILES (TURF)

#3 FABRIANA (1/1) // 30% Win
#5 ON THE WINGS (5/1) // 18% Win
#1 HARDY CHISEL (20/1) // 16% Win
#2 SIMPLY CHARMING (7/2) // 15% Win

Jeremy’s Take: The 30% rate and 12-point spread are both second-largest in the Rainbow 6 races today. Fabriano has won 3 straight, the last 2 almost identical to this, and should be very difficult to defeat. She’s also the best finisher in a race with plenty of early pace. Single.

RACE 8 (8:00PM ET) // MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT // 5 1/2 FURLONGS (ALL WEATHER)

#2 LA PANZANELLA (12/1) // 20% Win
#12 MALIBU JEWEL (8/1) // 18% Win
#4 QUEENS MAP (9/2) // 10% Win
#3 SCARRAZANO (15/1) // 6% Win

Jeremy’s Take: Similar to Race 6, these are lightly raced 2-year-olds with 7 first-time starters in a 12-horse field. 1/ST INDEX longshot pick La Panzanella adds blinkers, tries Tapeta for the first time, and ran into a promising local buzzsaw in prior tries at Emerald Downs. She’s definitely playable for trainer Blaine Wright. Use these 4 along with first-time starters Watchful Eye, All and New Ways to Dream.

RACE 9 (8:30PM ET) // ALLOWANCE // 5 1/2 FURLONGS (ALL WEATHER)

#6 SADIE BLUEGRASS (7/5) // 31% Win
#5 BLACK DROP (4/1) // 17% Win
#7 PEARL DRAGON (10/1) // 13% Win
#3 MIDNIGHT SUNRISE (7/2) // 12% Win

Jeremy’s Take: The 31% rate and 14-point spread for Sadie Bluegrass is the biggest in the Rainbow 6 sequence today. She’s won 4 of her last 5 races (and 5 of her last 7), and knows the way home. The algorithm snubbed Woke Up to Aces, who travels north with mixed results, but appears capable on her best. Single Sadie Bluegrass on budget-conscious tickets; adding Woke Up to Aces immediately doubles your cost, and I’m not sure that’s prudent.

RACE 10 (9:00PM ET) // CLAIMING // 1 MILE (TURF)

#7 OCEAN FURY (5/2) // 22% Win
#6 TOP OF THE GAME (7/2) // 18% Win
#4 TOUGH IT OUT (3/1) // 15% Win
#3 MR. MAGICO (5/1) // 11% Win

Jeremy’s Take: Ocean Furty takes a hefty class drop for the meet’s top trainer and jockey, making a formidable favorite that looks shorter than the 5-2 morning line. Tough It Out also makes a big class drop and fits with these. Top of the Game was beaten favorite last out vs. similar, but was claimed by sharp turn-around trainer Isidro Tamayo. A 3-deep approach should suffice.

20-cent Rainbow 6 Recommendation:

3 with 2,4,5,6,7,8 with 3 with 1,2,3,4,7,11,12 with 6 with 7,6,4 ($25.20 for 20 cents)

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 10/18/20

October 18, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Seeking Refuge; 7-Honos Man

Click to View Video Analysis

Forecast: Seeking Refuge missed by a neck in a restricted $32,000 claiming turf miler at Del Mar in late August in a race that produced a career top speed figure. Freshened for nearly two months but sporting a strong, healthy series of recent workouts, the D. O’Neill-trained colt retains U. Rispoli and should run at least as well if not better today. From his comfortable inside draw, he’ll likely draft into a second flight, ground-saving position and then have every chance with a proper patient ride to produce the last run. Honos Man exits an open $32,000 affair over this course and distance 16 days ago (was fifth, beaten two lengths) and today drops into a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 affair while facing significantly easier foes. The Afleet Alex gelding also shows the blinkers-off angle that we like and switches to F. Prat, so there are several reasons to believe that the P. Miller-trained gelding is primed for a major effort as the 2-1 morning line favorite. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Seeking Refuge on top.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Use: 2-As Time Goes By; 3-Himiko

Click to View Video Analysis

Forecast: The B. Baffert barn holds the aces with a pair of talented daughters of American Pharoah in this five-runner maiden special weight sprint for older fillies and mares. As Time Goes By, listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite, displayed considerable promise in her debut at Del Mar in August when she overcame a slow break to wind up third while earning a solid speed figure. Most of the maidens from this stable display improvement in their second outing so this well-regarded 3-year-old is very likely to step forward considerably. Himiko has had three chances, finishing second in her last pair, and is listed as the strong second choice at 6/5. On pure numbers she’s faster than her stablemate and will race without blinkers for the first time, though we suspect As Time Goes By has a bit more upside. In a race that probably is best left alone, we’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying As Time Goes By on top.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Mulligan; 4-Lucia’s Design

Click to View Video Analysis

Forecast: Mulligan won at first asking while displaying a good late turn of foot (although not changing leads) sprinting on turf at Del Mar and today gets an extra half furlong to work with while moving into the first-level allowance ranks. She’ll need improvement in the speed figure department to be successful on the raise, but there’s no reason to think this daughter Trappe Shot won’t move forward as she gains added experience. With some help up front, the R. Baltas-trained 3-year-old may be hard to contain in the final furlong. Lucia’s Design has been routing much of her career, so it’s tough to be certain how she’ll perform in this abbreviated grass dash. She’s a major player based strictly on her two-turn figures and has a prior win over the course, so the C. Lewis-trained daughter of Strong Mandate has to be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-Wilshire Dude

Click to View Video Analysis

Forecast: Wilshire Dude is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite and on paper certainly looks like a logical short-priced top pick. A decent third place effort in a tougher spot over this track and distance last month after cutting out extremely fast fractions was better than the line shows, and against this five-runner field of $16,000 claiming older horses the S. Knapp-trained gelding can exert his superiority while either on the front end or from a stalking position. You can make him a short-priced rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:11 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Deuce; 4-Much More Halo

Click to View Video Analysis

Forecast: As an eight-race maiden with five runner-up performances, Much More Halo certainly isn’t one to trust but after failing as the favorite in his last pair the B. Baffert-trained colt may have finally found a field he can beat. The son of More Than Ready, freshened since mid-August, likes to settle in mid-pack and then grind way through the lane, and against this group he should have every chance to produce a winning late kick. However, at 8/5 on the morning line he won’t be offering much wagering value. Deuce is a bit intriguing and is worth including somewhere on your ticket. Away for a full year and returning as a first-time gelding, the son of Into Mischief has trained fairly well for his comeback and could easily be a better type this time around. The D. Hofmans-trained 5-year-old has run well over this course and distance in the past and should find himself on or near the early lead.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:42 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Handsome Cat; 4-Bronn; 6-Gate Speed

Click to View Video Analysis

Forecast: Handsome Cat earned a career top speed figure when winning a state-bred first-level allowance race over this track and distance two weeks ago and if he can repeat that type of performance off short rest he certainly can win right back. However, that’s a big if. Gate Speed, away since March, has dangerous early speed but always is susceptible under pressure in the final furlong. His form over the Santa Anita main track is good – first or second in three of four career outings – and on pure numbers he’s a fit, so as the projected controlling speed he looks dangerous. Bronn showed some moxie when winning a $50,000 claiming main track miler restricted to 3-year-olds last month and today tackles older foes while dropping back to a one-turn race. A bullet half mile workout 46 3/5, fastest of 32) certainly indicates he’s at least maintaining his form if not continuing to improve. All three should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that looks somewhat chaotic.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:13 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Miss Fraulein; 8-Breakfast Ball

Click to View Video Analysis

Forecast: Let’s go with a price chance in this turf sprint for $32,000 claiming fillies and mares. Breakfast Ball turns back from a series of route races and will need a considerable boost in the speed figure department but she continues to train well while dropping a notch below her claim level so we suspect the daughter of Bayern is ready for a career top effort. She’ll likely be doing her best work from off the pace, and with clear sailing combined with a contested pace scenario she could produce a winning late kick at 10-1 on the morning line. Miss Fraulein is the likely choice and one to beat after finishing a close third (beaten a half-length) in a first-level allowance dash over this course and distance just eight days ago. The quick turnaround and the drop into a seller are a bit concerning, but on paper she’s clearly the controlling speed, and with this switch to F. Prat she could easily go lower than her morning line of 8/5.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Forest Caraway; 5-Queengol

Click to View Video Analysis

Forecast: Queengol didn’t receive much action in her debut at 9-1 but her clever, highly-rated victory was hardly a fluke. The daughter of Flashback displayed good stalking speed outside and gradually wore down Kalypso close home to win quite cleverly. She’s trained well since, lands the cozy outside box, retains F. Prat, and should have every chance to score again in this year’s edition of the Anoakia S. for juvenile fillies. Forest Caraway also won nicely in her debut at Del Mar and then verified that favorable initial impression when winding up a distant second in the Del Mar Debutante behind the unbeaten Princess Noor. P. Miller-trained daughter of Bodemeister adds blinkers and may be the one to fear most, though based strictly on speed figures she’ll need to step forward considerably to compete with our top pick. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Queengol on top.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:15 PT Grade: B (Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 2-Express Train; 7-Scarto

Click to View Video Analysis

Forecast: The Twilight Derby-G2 is a contentious nine furlong grass event for 3-year-olds containing a nice mixture of proven stakes performers with a few talented up-and-comers. It’s the latter group that most intrigues us. Though he was beaten as the odds-on favorite when runner-up in a first-level allowance main track miler last month, Express Train could easily make his mark in this graded stakes at a nice price (he’s 6-1 on the morning line). The son of Union Rags earned a huge speed figure even in defeat in that race while facing tough, seasoned, older horses and today returns to his own age group while stretching out in trip and switching to grass for the first time. In a race that doesn’t have a whole lot of pace signed on, the J. Shirreffs-trained colt should be forwardly placed throughout under regular rider M. Smith and then have his chance to produce an upset over a nine furlong trip that she’s certainly bred to enjoy. Scarto has won two straight over lesser foes in visually pleasing style while earning numbers that are close to being competitive with this tougher group. Based on his late pace numbers he’ll handle the extra distance just fine, so with continued improvement the gelded son of Paynter could easily outrun his 8-1 morning line. Both should be included in your rolling exotics with preference on top to Express Train.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 9: Post 5:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Woke Up to Aces; 6-Sadie Bluegrass

Forecast: Southern California shipper Woke Up to Aces looks extremely well-meant in this first-level allowance abbreviated sprint for 3-year-old fillies. The M. McCarthy-trained daughter of The Factor has trained like she’s much better than her poor run on grass at Del Mar last month, and if she can duplicate her sharp maiden win from last winter to the local all-weather surface she should be tough to beat. The barn’s Bay Area “go-to” rider J. Couton takes the call. Sadie Bluegrass is plenty quick but can stalk and pounce if the race flow requires so we suspect she’ll settle into a pace-prompting position just outside of ‘Aces and then take her best shot from the top of the lane to the wire. She’s the 7/5 morning line favorite for the high-percentage J. Wong barn and deserves to be. We’ll give Woke Up to Aces a very slight edge on top but include both in our Golden Hour Pick-4
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RACE 10: Post: 5:45 PT Grade: B+ (Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 6-Private Mission; 8-Full of Laughs

Click to View Video Analysis

Forecast: Private Mission has trained like a good thing for B. Baffert and seems certain to receive a ton of tote action in this maiden juvenile filly sprint. The daughter of Into Mischief brought $750,000 as a Saratoga yearling and has done everything in the morning like a “win now” type. She’s 9/5 on the morning line and seems certain to go lower. Full of Laughs, a first-timer by Exaggerator out of an unraced half-sister to Belmont Futurity winner Engage, has looked good in the a.m. for M. McCarthy, though we suspect she won’t show her best until tried over a distance of ground. We’ll watch her for future reference and perhaps include her on a ticket or two as a saver or a back-up, but the main push certainly will go to Private Mission.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 6:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Tough It Out; 7-Ocean Fury

Forecast: The finale is a middle distance claimer for $6,250 older horses. Tough It Out has seen better days but at this level he could get his confidence back. His form over the local lawn is excellent (two prior wins) and his recent numbers are solid, so despite the big class drop from $20,000 the veteran gelding should be set for a major effort. Ocean Fury also hits rock bottom after finishing a respectable third (beaten less than a length) in the same race Tough It Out just finished fifth in. His class drop seems a bit more suspicious, but anything close that effort today will make the J. Wong-trained gelding tough to beat. These are the two we’ll be using in our Golden Hour Pick-4.

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Golden Hour Pick 4 Ticket for Sunday

October 17, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
The Grade 2 Twilight Derby from Santa Anita is a good way to kick off the Golden Hour Pick 4 on Sunday, and there’s nothing easy about it.

The 1 1-8th-mile race (with a $200,000 purse) brings together a field of nine, and it’s difficult not to see this as a spread-out race.

This week’s suggested Golden Hour Pick 4 ticket amounts to $64 and includes four horses in the Twilight (SA 9, Leg 1 of Golden Hour Pick 4, 8 p.m. ET). The popular sequence, which has a 15-percent takeout rate, includes the last two from Santa Anita and the last two from Golden Gate Fields.

MARGOT’S BOY lost a heartbreaker in the G2 Del Mar Derby when he came up short by a head to Pixelate. He stalked the leaders, took the lead in midstretch and just failed to hold off the 6-5 favorite. Trainer Craig Lewis has him in top form and he should be difficult to beat here.

KISS TODAY GOODBYE was fifth in the Del Mar Derby and gets a jockey change to Victor Espinoza, one of the greatest money riders in the game. This one was allowed to drop too far back and will probable engage in the action earlier this time.

SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT had the lead in the G2 American Turf on Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs but tired in the late going and finished fourth. Prior to that he was a convincing winner in the Grade 3 La Jolla Handicap at Del Mar. He also was ready for his closeup as he won the Grade 3 Cecil B. DeMille Stakes at Del Mar last year.

FIELD PASS finished third, just ahead of SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT, in the American Turf, and he’s been effective from just off the pace in the Grade 3 Transylvania at Keeneland and Grade 3 JR Steaks at Turfway. Trainer Mike Maker always warrants attention and this one can probably adjust to any pace.

Here’s a look at the remaining three races of the Golden Hour Pick 4 on Sunday’s card:

Golden Gate Fields Race 9 (8:15 p.m. ET, allowance optional claiming)

WOKE UP TO ACES broke her maiden on turf two back at Santa Anita was extremely quick in two of three races.

MIDNIGHT SUNRISE was second in a similar spot at Golden Gate last out and has won two over the strip.

BLACK DROP has been effective from off the pace and if allowed to drop back in this one can be effective late in the game. Was a fast closing third over this track last out.

SADIE BLUEGRASS is one of several that like to be on the front end, and she would be the quickest. She won her last three Golden Gate appearances, once on turf and twice on the Tapeta.

Santa Anita Race 10 (8:30 p.m. ET, maidens)

PRIVATE MISSION and FROSTERIA are a pair a Bob Baffert-trainer first-time starters, and in most similar occasions, it’s either one of the other of his stable reps in West Coast maiden races. Only two entrants in the field have started, and both finished far back.

PRIVATE MISSION was a $750,000 purchase as a year, and the Into Mischief filly has a long string of mostly very good works. FROSTERIA, a Godolphin homebred by Frosted, also has had her fair share of attention-getting works.

Golden Gate Fields Race 10 (8:45 p.m., ET, claiming)

TYLER’S TEK was winless in three at Canterbury Park, having had a second and third in three tries. Horses from the Minnesota track often do well when they try other turf courses. He has a good closing move and can be effective late if he gets a decent pace in front of him.

OCEAN FURY looks like the best of the class droppers here and comes off a third. Trainer Jonathan Wong is good as running them where they can win and is hitting 26 percent locally.

Here’s the suggested ticket for $1 Golden Hour Pick 4 on Sunday:
SA 9) #3 Margot’s Boy, #4 Kiss Today Goodbye, #6 Smooth Like Strait, #9 Field Pass.
GG 9) #2 Woke Up to Aces, #3 Midnight Sunrise, #5 Black Drop, #6 Sadie Bluegrass.
SA 10) #6 Private Mission, #7 Frosteria.
GG 10) #1 Tyler’s Tek, #7 Ocean Fury,
$1 Golden Hour Pick 4: 3-4-6-9 with 2-3-5-6 with 6-7 with 1-7 ($64).

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

Cappers Access
NFL Bears+1
NFL Browns+3
NFL Bucs+1
NFL 49ers+3

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

Gridiron Angles - Week 6
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: Baltimore at Philadelphia
-- The Ravens are 15-0 ATS (10.90 ppg) since Jan 12, 2013 on the road coming off a win where they ran for at least 150 yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Atlanta at Minnesota
-- The Falcons are 0-11 ATS (-8.91 ppg) since Oct 25, 2015 coming off a loss where they allowed at least 300 passing yards.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: Baltimore at Philadelphia
-- The Ravens are 8-0 ATS (13.69 ppg) since Sep 22, 2019 coming off a win where Mark Andrews had a receiving touchdown.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Green Bay at Tampa Bay
-- The Packers are 10-0-1 OU (5.59 ppg) since Sep 28, 2014 on the road coming off a game where they allowed at least seven points less than expected based on the team total.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: Denver at New England
-- The Patriots are 0-12 OU (-8.88 ppg) since Dec 04, 2016 coming off a road game that went under the total by at least six points.

NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Atlanta at Minnesota
-- The Vikings are 10-0-1 ATS (8.68 ppg) since Dec 20, 2015 at home coming off a game where they committed at least two turnovers.

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

Vegas Money Moves - Week 6
Micah Roberts

NFC West Matchup receives attention

The biggest line move of NFL Week 6 action started 10 days ago when the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted their early Week 6 numbers with the San Francisco 49ers as three-point home favorites over the Los Angeles Rams.

But following the Week 5 results, the SuperBook immediately posted the Rams as favorites (-3), which was mostly based on the 49ers eye-opening 43-17 home loss to the Miami Dolphins.

Bettors thought so low of the 49ers after quartreback Jimmy Garoppolo’s return to the lineup was a disaster that they thought the 7-point move wasn’t enough and bet the Rams to -3.5 on Monday morning.

On Wednesday, 49ers money showed up pushing the Rams down to -3 (-120).

On Thursday, they bet the 49ers again pushing the game to Rams -3 flat. But by Friday afternoon it was back up to Rams -3 -120.

At the South Point, sportsbook director Chris Andrews says it’s one of those sharp-public divide games. You can guess who the public likes. The Rams are 4-1 with a top-4 defense coming off a wire-to-wire 30-10 win and cover (-7) at Washington. Meanwhile, the 49ers have two straight bad losses as 8.5-point home favorites over the Eagles and Dolphins, and the public liked the 49ers in both and got burned. They’ve learned their lesson and refuse to be burned again by the 49ers.

But the way the San Francisco reporters are talking, this game is a defining moment for Garoppolo. He’s at a crossroads. This could be it and he might be playing for his job and home. He should be motivated, so if you like the 49ers, you have the desperation narrative going for you. And it’s a home game on a Sunday night although the 49ers have gone winless at Levi Stadium (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) which hasn’t had any fans attend this season yet.

The 49ers won both meetings last season, the Rams have covered three of the last four. The road team has covered four of the past five meetings.

Week 6 - Largest Public Leans

Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore Ravens
Green Bay Packers

SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay says the Rams are one of their top public plays this week, along with the Ravens (-7.5 at Philadelphia), and Packers (PK at Tampa Bay). Those are the same top-3 public plays at the South Point.

Battle of the Bays

Up north in Reno, Atlantis sportsbook director Marc Nelson also has the Packers as their top public team. The first five weeks of the season the Buccaneers were a very popular public team as people transferred QB Tom Brady’s success with the Patriots into continuous trends for 2020.

But when the Chicago Bears (+3.5) beat the Bucs, 20-19, last Thursday night, most bettors had seen enough and flipped.

The Packers are 4-0 both SU and ATS, the type of run the public loves to press until it eventually loses. Plus, Green Bay and star QB Aaron Rodgers will be playing with rest after having a bye in Week 5.

However, BetMGM VP of trading Jason Scott says their biggest liability so far through Friday afternoon was on the Buccaneers.

The SuperBook early number had the Bucs -3 (EVEN) and after the loss to the Bears, it was readjusted to Packers -1.5. But despite all the public play, there’s enough respected money on the Bucs to keep the SuperBook at pick ‘em.

Sharp Report

The Ravens are part of the most popular 3-team parlay this week, but unlike the other two, wise guys have not shown their hand on the other side with the Eagles yet and it was sitting Ravens -7.5 all week until the SuperBook moved to -8 on Thursday. On Friday, respected money came on the Ravens to push them to -9.5 and then back to -9. BetMGM is also at -9.

Kornegay said their sharp play is on the Cowboys (-1 vs Cardinals on Monday), Browns (+3.5 at Pittsburgh), and Texans (+3.5 at Tennessee) while Andrews says the South Point’s biggest sharp risk is the Bears (+1.5 at Carolina), Jaguars (+3 vs. Lions), and 49ers.

Nelson says the Atlantis’ top wise guy plays are the Browns, Bucs, and Broncos (+9 at New England).

The Patriots canceled practice on Friday after a player tested positive for COVID-19 and there were some concerns in Indianapolis for their home game against the Bengals (+7.5) but reopened their facility Friday after tests came back negative.

Both games are still on the board, but bettors do have concerns.

“No big players (yet), covid has everyone spooked,” said BetMGM’s Scott.

Nevada’s BetMGM high rollers (whales) usually arrive Friday or Saturday night.

AFC South Trap?

The game that surprises me the most that the public isn’t on, or at least as much as the other three, is the undefeated Titans (-3.5) at home against the Texans who finally won last week. Wynn sportsbook director Doug Castaneda says the Titans are their biggest risk thus far, but they’ve got the type of players where one bet means the entire day's success. Kornegay has sharp money on the Texans.

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

Rams vs. 49ers Week 6 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

For the third straight week it's the NFC West that gets some part of the Sunday Night Football spotlight, and the San Francisco 49ers are hoping this home date turns out better than their last one.

That was a tough 25-20 home loss to the Eagles as heavy home chalk, and now two weeks later they are catching a field goal with the division rival Los Angeles Rams in town.

Who ends up playing (and even playing well) for the 49ers at QB is a huge question coming into the game and they are an easy target to be picked on right now because of it.

The 49ers upcoming schedule is about as rough as it gets, so this could spiral downwards in a heartbeat, but a counted out former champ can be tough to completely dispose of.

Betting Resources

Week 6 Matchup: NFC West
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Date: Sunday, Oct. 18, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC

The San Francisco 49ers have struggled at Levi's Stadium this season, going 0-3 both SU and ATS. (AP)

Line Movements

The Rams know all about the post-Super Bowl struggles a team like the 49ers appear to be dealing with, as that was the Rams at the beginning of last year.

Starting out this year with a 4-1 SU record is great, but when all four of those wins have come against NFC East teams, you know there are going to be questions about resume quality.

Beating the defending conference champs regardless of what state they are currently in can't hurt the Rams resume going forward, but have they done enough to be a road favorite for this game?

Spread: Los Angeles -3.5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -165 San Francisco +145
Total: 51.5

2020 Betting Stats

Los Angeles

Overall: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U
Road: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 27.2 (Rank 14)
Defense PPG: 18.0 (Rank 3)
Offense YPG: 403.6 (Rank 4)
Defense YPG: 304.2 (Rank 4)

San Francisco

Overall: 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U
Home: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 24.8 (Rank 18)
Defense PPG: 22.8 (Rank 11)
Offense YPG: 364.2 (Rank 21)
Defense YPG: 323 (Rank 5)

Handicapping the Total

Not knowing the starter under center for the Niners for certain makes it tough to be confident in either side of this total.

I would argue that the quarterback trio we've seen from San Francisco are all closer to being equal in overall skill set than they aren't, but that is more helpful in determining a side rather than a total. Chemistry between whomever is throwing the ball and the pass catchers are out there does change based on the name.

But this is still a Rams team that's run through weak NFC East competition so far, although they did hold Dallas to just 17 points. But their game against Buffalo saw the Bills finish with 35, and no matter who the 49ers go with at QB, it's still going to be better than most of what LA saw from the Giants or Washington.

This is also going to be one of the first halfway decent defenses the Rams will have seen this year, as again, their 2020 has consisted of beating up on the NFC East. It's been a division rivalry where the winner has put up at least 30 in five of the past six meetings, and I'm not sure the Rams can get there, but them getting to that number wouldn't be surprising either. Buffalo's shown to be one of the better defenses the Rams have played and they hung 30+ on the Bills.

Long way of saying that this total is probably right where it should be, and it's a series where I think flipping the total result in the rematch might be the better way to approach the two games these two play this year. Too much uncertainty here on both ends, and we'll have a much better profile of each squad when they meet again at the end of November.

Head-to-Head History

Dec. 21, 2019 - San Francisco 34 vs. Los Angeles 31, 49ers -7, Over 45.5
Oct. 13, 2019 - San Francisco 20 vs. Los Angeles 7, 49ers +3, Under 50
Dec. 30, 2018 - Los Angeles 48 vs. San Francisco 32, Rams -10.5, Over 50
Oct. 21, 2018 - Los Angeles 39 at San Francisco 10, Rams -9, Under 52

Handicapping the Side

I might not be able to call a one-point win for the home side like last week, but with me lumping all of the 49ers QB options into a group I can expect what to get from, siding with the underdog and the points as I did a week ago is the play once again.

I do think the Rams are an above average team this year, but their 4-1 SU record doesn't hold nearly the same weight that some other four-win teams have at this point in the year. It's inflating their stock just ever so slightly, and when paired with a 49ers stock that's about as low as it can get right now, it just doesn't seem like this line is completely correct.

Had Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners just got beat at home last week against Miami – not utterly demolished from start to finish – I don't think the perception of this 49ers team is as low as it currently seems to be.

Last week's play isn't necessarily a good thing for the Niners long term this year, as they may be an average team that simply overachieved last year, but in a spot where it's got to feel like the direction of their season is on the line, I think we get the best versions of whomever is out there on the field in San Fran colors.

All three QB options for the 49ers have recent starting experience with this team so there are minimal worries there, and it was just a few weeks ago that the Rams were a two-point road dog vs Philly, while the 49ers were laying -8.5 at home against that same Eagles team a couple of weeks later. The drastically different results for those teams in those games isn't quite worth the adjustment here in my view, and the Rams record could get somewhat exposed here.

San Francisco is on a 5-1 ATS run as an underdog – a role they've yet to be in this season – and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight against a winning team. I believe the 49ers play up to the level of their competition in this spot, and facing a familiar foe who they swept last year might allow the Niners to play more on instinct and not have them try to overthink their way out of this funk.

I may not be sure about who ultimately takes the field for San Francisco in this game, but I'm also not sure about what this Rams team truly is in 2020. Until they show me a more definitive picture one way or the other, I just don't think I can agree with this picture being painted of the Rams being worthy road favorites in this spot. I don't even think they win the game.

Key Injuries

Los Angeles

LB Ogbonnia Okoronkwo: Elbow - Out
S Jordan Fuller: Shoulder - Out
LB Micah Kiser: Groin - Questionable
OT Bobby Evans: Shoulder - Probable

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Ankle - Probable
RB Jeff Wilson Jr.: Calf
S Marcell Harris: Ankle
CB Emmanuel Moseley: Concussion - Questionable
CB Dontae Johnson: Groin - Out
CB K'Waun Williams: Knee - Out
LB Kwon Alexander: Anle - Out

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

MLB line movement October 18
Patrick Everson

The Los Angeles Dodgers grabbed a Game 6 victory, forcing a winner-take-all Game 7 against the Atlanta Braves. Los Angeles opened as -135 favorites at The SuperBook for Sunday's game.

MLB betting odds are up and getting attention for the lone matchup on the Sunday schedule, Game 7 of the NLCS. The Los Angeles Dodgers look to complete their comeback from a 3-1 series deficit when they face the Atlanta Braves, with the Tampa Bay Rays waiting in the World Series.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s game. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement through game time.

MLB line movement

The Dodgers got back-to-back solo home runs from Corey Seager and Justin Turner as part of a three-run first inning Saturday, and that held up the rest of the way in a 3-1 Game 6 win over the Braves. That sets up a decisive Game 7, with first pitch at 8:15 p.m. ET Sunday.

Atlanta plans to start Ian Anderson, who is 2-0 with a perfect 0.00 ERA in three starts this postseason. Los Angeles’ starter wasn’t determined by late Saturday night, but The SuperBook went ahead and posted a line of Dodgers -135/Braves +125, with a total of 8.

ConleyPicks · Oct 18, 2020

909ATLANTA -910 LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 40-26 SU (12.5 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.

Sunday 10/18/2020 Comps/Bonus Plays,Trends, Betting Info, Etc

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