NFL bad beat: Jake Elliott's missed 29-yard field goal cost a bettor about $238,000

TheComputerGroup · Oct 23, 2020

A 29-yard field goal for a professional kicker — or a college kicker or most high-school kickers — should be automatic. Keep that in mind.

On Thursday, a bettor made a big play on the Philadelphia Eagles-New York Giants game. He or she put $250,000 on the Eagles -3 in the first half. The payout would have been $488,095.25.

OK, back to the 29-yard field goal.

The Eagles made some mistakes in an up-and-down first half, most notably Carson Wentz’s baffling interception to the end zone that cost the Eagles some points. Still, Philadelphia led 10-7, and a fumble by Giants running back Dion Lewis set up a chip-shot field goal with less than 30 seconds left before halftime. That big bet was basically a gimme.

Eagles kicker Jake Elliott lined up, with that huge bet in the balance ... and missed. Wide left.

Eagles coach Doug Pederson was dumbfounded. Elliott looked shocked. But their disappointment didn’t directly cost either of them a $238,095.25 win.

The Eagles won the first half 10-7. The bet on Philadelphia -3 was a push. The bettor got his $250,000 bet back, so it wasn’t a total debacle. But an easy field goal attempt was pushed wide left, costing a bettor a little less than a quarter of a million dollars.

How was your Thursday night?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/sports...oal-cost-a-bettor-about-238000-020121246.html

Willie99 · Oct 23, 2020

It's not often a team dominates a game statistically AND wins the turnover battle 3-1 AND commits fewer penalties AND doesn't cover a short line

PoundFoolish · Oct 23, 2020

exploited17 · Oct 23, 2020

Willie99 said:
It's not often a team dominates a game statistically AND wins the turnover battle 3-1 AND commits fewer penalties AND doesn't cover a short line

But they didn't
Giants took a 21-10 lead with 7 minutes left
Eagles then proceeded to outgain them 149-19 in the last 7 minutes

That means Giants 306 yards 293 yards for the first 53 minutes

The team that wins the turnover margin(especially by 2 or more) almost always win. Doesn't mean they cover though

PatsFanatic · Oct 23, 2020

It cost me $200, but a push is better than a loss...

sucks for that guy though

phdinsports · Oct 23, 2020

exploited17 said:
But they didn't
Giants took a 21-10 lead with 7 minutes left
Eagles then proceeded to outgain them 149-19 in the last 7 minutes

That means Giants 306 yards 293 yards for the first 53 minutes

The team that wins the turnover margin(especially by 2 or more) almost always win. Doesn't mean they cover though

But they did. The Eagles nearly outgained them by a 2 to 1 margin in the first 33 minutes, 227 yards to 116! Yet they only led by 3. Willie is dead on, rarely you see a team out gain their opponent by greater than 100 yards are plus 2 in TO and have less penalties and cannot cover a low spread.

exploited17 · Oct 24, 2020

phdinsports said:
But they did. The Eagles nearly outgained them by a 2 to 1 margin in the first 33 minutes, 227 yards to 116! Yet they only led by 3. Willie is dead on, rarely you see a team out gain their opponent by greater than 100 yards are plus 2 in TO and have less penalties and cannot cover a low spread.

I thought he was talking about the game not half
It was only a 2-1 TO margin in the first half
196 to 125 in yards. Not quite dominant though

Why you brought up the first 33 minutes is beyond me

But yes they should have been up by more than 3. If you miss a short FG which is made over 90% of the time. But when dealing with shit teams they find a way

If one wants to break down anything we should be looking at why Giants cover on the road and not home. Specifically on grass
I could only assume a team(especially a bad one) feels they have to give more effort on the road than at home if they have a chance to win. Ir might not even be intentional That mentality just manifests by situation But it seems to be

phdinsports · Oct 24, 2020

exploited17 said:
I thought he was talking about the game not half
It was only a 2-1 TO margin in the first half
196 to 125 in yards. Not quite dominant though

Why you brought up the first 33 minutes is beyond me

But yes they should have been up by more than 3. If you miss a short FG which is made over 90% of the time. But when dealing with shit teams they find a way

If one wants to break down anything we should be looking at why Giants cover on the road and not home. Specifically on grass
I could only assume a team(especially a bad one) feels they have to give more effort on the road than at home if they have a chance to win. Ir might not even be intentional That mentality just manifests by situation But it seems to be

Cherry picking just like you did. At the 33 minute mark before their long run, Eagles where dominating in yards. At the end of the game they had 100 plus more yards. It not like their fourth quarter run came against soft zone defenses. Bottom line Willie was correct. A lot more yards, plus 2 in TO less penalties and cannot cover a low number. Rarely happens

exploited17 · Oct 24, 2020

phdinsports said:
Cherry picking just like you did. At the 33 minute mark before their long run, Eagles where dominating in yards. At the end of the game they had 100 plus more yards. It not like their fourth quarter run came against soft zone defenses. Bottom line Willie was correct. A lot more yards, plus 2 in TO less penalties and cannot cover a low number. Rarely happens

Not cherry picking. I referenced a 60 minute game and stated it was even for 53 minutes. Makes sense since you can't dominate when the yardage was slightly ahead for other team and they led by 11 until 7 minutes left

You referenced a 30 minute half and needed to add on three irrelvant minutes to make your point

But...anyway.....

phdinsports · Oct 24, 2020

exploited17 said:
Not cherry picking. I referenced a 60 minute game and stated it was even for 53 minutes. Makes sense since you can't dominate when the yardage was slightly ahead for other team and they led by 11 until 7 minutes left

You referenced a 30 minute half and needed to add on three irrelvant minutes to make your point

But...anyway.....

Actually those numbers were 37 minutes into the game. At the half the yards were 216 to 110. Bottom line is you're wrong Willie's right. To counter Willie's point you need to provide a few examples of a team out gaining a team by 100 plus yards plus 2 in TO's and less penalties and not covering a four point spread.

NFL bad beat: Jake Elliott's missed 29-yard field goal cost a bettor about $238,000

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