Weekly Bankroll Builder: October 23 Stronach 5 Play
October 21, 2020 | By Brian Nadeau
Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, and we’ve got another 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park Race 8 (4:18 ET) – 3up AOC (35k/N2X) at 6 furlongs
Speed, speed, and more speed, so unless scratches decimate the field, I’m looking for someone to come from off the pace, which lands me on #7 Awesome D J, #8 Buddy’s Run, and #2 Charge to Victory, who all have the ability to stalk early and punch late, and all enter in good form as well.
Pk5 A horses: 7,8,2 (listed in order of preference)
Post position says #4 The Cairo Kid is in a better spot than #1 Stroll Smokin, so I’ll use them in that order, but it’s tough to think either lasts if they hook up early and often, which is why they are on the second line, even though their recent form is as good as anyone else’s here.
Pk5 B horses: 4,1
Potential B add-ins: #5 Steadytillready
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park West Race 9 (4:32 ET) – 3up 12.5k MCL at 5 furlongs (turf)
Since I can see them building an ark outside my window as I type this late Wednesday afternoon here in Fort Lauderdale, I’m going to assume this one if going to be OFF the turf, and so I’ll handicap it that way. (I will also give turf selections down below, just in case). Being outside the other speed—and dropping out of a N2L—should help #8 He’s Royalty, so he gets a tepid top vote over the dropping #1 Discreet Tune and #2 R Uncle Eric, and lightly raced #3 Shortlister, in a race that you’re going to need to pay close attention to the scratches.
Pk5 A horses: 8,1,2,3
I may come back and add #4 Cold Warrior and/or #7 Maquiavelo, if more than one or two are scratches above, but if the field stays in tact I’m OK not using either, since they are both 0-for-13 with no upside, even though both have a bit of dirt form to fall back on.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #4 Cold Warrior, #7 Maquiavelo
Leg 3: Laurel Park Race 8 (4:50 ET) – 3upfm SAL (16k/8k) at 5 ½ furlongs (turf)
I’ll handicap this one for the turf, but it too could come off, so make sure to pay attention to the surface and scratches. Provided we’re on the grass, it looks like the outside attack post and tactical speed of #9 La Piu Bella will make her tough, and a repeat of the Del 2nd last time would too, while getting back to the turf should help #7 Bath and Tennis, as she has some big form here earlier this year against similar.
Pk5 A horses: 9,7
There are mixed signals with #10 Olive Kat, as Gorham is 29% off the claim, but 0-for-23 in turf sprints, and he’s trying to move this one up from Ness, so while she fits on paper, I’m a bit leery too. The same can be said for #6 Algodonal, who should like getting back to the turf but didn’t fire in a trio on the dirt, yet has run well on the main in the past, which could suggest he’s going the wrong way.
Pk5 B horses: 10,6 (to keep the cost of the B ticket down I’ll be singling #3 City Rage in Leg 4)
Potential B add-ins: #3 Caterina One, #1 Madame X.
Leg 4: Santa Anita Race 3 (5:00 ET) – 3up 50k starter-allowance at 1 mile (turf)
With just six entered tactics will be at a premium, and the versatile style of #3 City Rage gives him an edge on the closing style of #6 Liberal, so if you need to narrow, you may want to single the former. With that being said, I’ll use them both, as there is some speed signed on, and if ‘Rage gets caught up in it, then the advantage swings heavily to Liberal, who will be sitting back and licking his chops.
Pk5 A horses: 3,6
I’m worried that #4 Rip City is the one who will be caught between a rock and a hard place, as he could be in a pace sandwich, which is why he’s a B, and it’s worth noting his win over ‘Rage last time might have been more a product of the latter’s tough start than the former’s good work.
Pk5 B horses: 4
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields Race 3 (5:15 ET) – 3upfm MSW at 5 ½ furlongs
Can’t say I have much feel for the finale but a big post swap makes #4 Sweet and Softly a huge threat, as she was inside #1 With Open Eyes last time and tired late, but (presumably) gets to be the presser today, which might enable her to turn the tables, while going second-off the break too. If they both duel each other into the ground then #3 Perfect Stories is the one to fear late, and she figures to be tighter second-off the long break, and gets a better post too.
Pk5 A horses: 4,3
You have to use #1 With Open Eyes, and she could easily be on the top line too, but the post is a worry, and she figures to take all the worst of it, so I’m going to limit her use to a supporting actress today.
Pk5 B horses: 1
Potential B add-ins: #6 I’ll Do It for You
The tickets:
Main Ticket: 7,8,2 with 8,1,2,3 with 9,7 with 3,6 with 4,3 = $96
Leg 1 B Backup: 4,1 with 8,1,2,3 with 9,7 with 3,6 with 4,3 = $64
Leg 3 B Backup: 7,8,2 with 8,1,2,3 with 10,6 with 3 with 4,3 = $48
Leg 4 B Backup: 7,8,2 with 8,1,2,3 with 9,7 with 4 with 4,3 = $48
Leg 5 B Backup: 7,8,2 with 8,1,2,3 with 9,7 with 3,6 with 1 = $48
October 21, 2020 | By Brian Nadeau
Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, and we’ve got another 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park Race 8 (4:18 ET) – 3up AOC (35k/N2X) at 6 furlongs
Speed, speed, and more speed, so unless scratches decimate the field, I’m looking for someone to come from off the pace, which lands me on #7 Awesome D J, #8 Buddy’s Run, and #2 Charge to Victory, who all have the ability to stalk early and punch late, and all enter in good form as well.
Pk5 A horses: 7,8,2 (listed in order of preference)
Post position says #4 The Cairo Kid is in a better spot than #1 Stroll Smokin, so I’ll use them in that order, but it’s tough to think either lasts if they hook up early and often, which is why they are on the second line, even though their recent form is as good as anyone else’s here.
Pk5 B horses: 4,1
Potential B add-ins: #5 Steadytillready
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park West Race 9 (4:32 ET) – 3up 12.5k MCL at 5 furlongs (turf)
Since I can see them building an ark outside my window as I type this late Wednesday afternoon here in Fort Lauderdale, I’m going to assume this one if going to be OFF the turf, and so I’ll handicap it that way. (I will also give turf selections down below, just in case). Being outside the other speed—and dropping out of a N2L—should help #8 He’s Royalty, so he gets a tepid top vote over the dropping #1 Discreet Tune and #2 R Uncle Eric, and lightly raced #3 Shortlister, in a race that you’re going to need to pay close attention to the scratches.
Pk5 A horses: 8,1,2,3
I may come back and add #4 Cold Warrior and/or #7 Maquiavelo, if more than one or two are scratches above, but if the field stays in tact I’m OK not using either, since they are both 0-for-13 with no upside, even though both have a bit of dirt form to fall back on.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #4 Cold Warrior, #7 Maquiavelo
Leg 3: Laurel Park Race 8 (4:50 ET) – 3upfm SAL (16k/8k) at 5 ½ furlongs (turf)
I’ll handicap this one for the turf, but it too could come off, so make sure to pay attention to the surface and scratches. Provided we’re on the grass, it looks like the outside attack post and tactical speed of #9 La Piu Bella will make her tough, and a repeat of the Del 2nd last time would too, while getting back to the turf should help #7 Bath and Tennis, as she has some big form here earlier this year against similar.
Pk5 A horses: 9,7
There are mixed signals with #10 Olive Kat, as Gorham is 29% off the claim, but 0-for-23 in turf sprints, and he’s trying to move this one up from Ness, so while she fits on paper, I’m a bit leery too. The same can be said for #6 Algodonal, who should like getting back to the turf but didn’t fire in a trio on the dirt, yet has run well on the main in the past, which could suggest he’s going the wrong way.
Pk5 B horses: 10,6 (to keep the cost of the B ticket down I’ll be singling #3 City Rage in Leg 4)
Potential B add-ins: #3 Caterina One, #1 Madame X.
Leg 4: Santa Anita Race 3 (5:00 ET) – 3up 50k starter-allowance at 1 mile (turf)
With just six entered tactics will be at a premium, and the versatile style of #3 City Rage gives him an edge on the closing style of #6 Liberal, so if you need to narrow, you may want to single the former. With that being said, I’ll use them both, as there is some speed signed on, and if ‘Rage gets caught up in it, then the advantage swings heavily to Liberal, who will be sitting back and licking his chops.
Pk5 A horses: 3,6
I’m worried that #4 Rip City is the one who will be caught between a rock and a hard place, as he could be in a pace sandwich, which is why he’s a B, and it’s worth noting his win over ‘Rage last time might have been more a product of the latter’s tough start than the former’s good work.
Pk5 B horses: 4
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields Race 3 (5:15 ET) – 3upfm MSW at 5 ½ furlongs
Can’t say I have much feel for the finale but a big post swap makes #4 Sweet and Softly a huge threat, as she was inside #1 With Open Eyes last time and tired late, but (presumably) gets to be the presser today, which might enable her to turn the tables, while going second-off the break too. If they both duel each other into the ground then #3 Perfect Stories is the one to fear late, and she figures to be tighter second-off the long break, and gets a better post too.
Pk5 A horses: 4,3
You have to use #1 With Open Eyes, and she could easily be on the top line too, but the post is a worry, and she figures to take all the worst of it, so I’m going to limit her use to a supporting actress today.
Pk5 B horses: 1
Potential B add-ins: #6 I’ll Do It for You
The tickets:
Main Ticket: 7,8,2 with 8,1,2,3 with 9,7 with 3,6 with 4,3 = $96
Leg 1 B Backup: 4,1 with 8,1,2,3 with 9,7 with 3,6 with 4,3 = $64
Leg 3 B Backup: 7,8,2 with 8,1,2,3 with 10,6 with 3 with 4,3 = $48
Leg 4 B Backup: 7,8,2 with 8,1,2,3 with 9,7 with 4 with 4,3 = $48
Leg 5 B Backup: 7,8,2 with 8,1,2,3 with 9,7 with 3,6 with 1 = $48
Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Late Pick 4 Analysis
October 23, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
The Meadowlands has 13 races set to go this evening. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 10, the sequence has a 15% takeout and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 10
1-Broadway Bruiser (9/2)-Took the long way around from the 10-hole in last to finish 2nd. Not sure trying to set the pace will help chances but can be forwardly placed. Big chance with the right trip.
3-Trixie Dust (8-1)-Like #1 had a tough trip but kept coming to get a 2nd place check. Should get a better journey and could improve in 3rd straight Big M start.
7-Shady McCoy (10-1)-Is only 2-17 on an off track but did race big in the slop last week. Tried hard in both Big M starts and looks like a player but is 0-22 this year. East Rutherford record, 11 wins in 66 starts, is cause for hope.
10-Chiplosive (3-1)-Smoked everyone last week from the 10-hole and drew off by 4 lengths on a "good" track. Form has been good in last 2 efforts and did notch 1st Big M win. This post will make it tough but best to respect.
Race 11
2-Teal Hanover (3-1)-Drops back to a better level. In last start followed cover and was not a threat but did pace a quick 2nd half. Looking for similar but needs the right steer and to follow live cover.
3-Shellie De Vie (9/2)-Shellie was better when dropped to this level but did not get the best of trips. Should be put in play early and may leave to get the top.
4-Sudden Passing (7/2)-Burke trainee ships in from Philly and faces easier. Allard will likely have the pedal down from the start and it will be a question of how far this 5-year-old mare can carry her speed.
Race 12
1-Commanding Officer (3-1)-Returns from the Red Mile to a class were this colt had 2 straight wins. Has been off almost 2 weeks so will look for a return to better form on a track where his record has been a perfect 2-2.
4-JK Objection (4-1)-Has been idle since 8/4 but tuned up nicely with a 56.2 back half in a qualifier at the Big M. This will be the 1st start for Takter for a freshman who has shown very good speed.
Race 13
2-Muay Hanover (15-1)-Will toss last start on a sloppy track from the 9-hole and record on an off track is 1-24. Bailey can leave from this post and get sucked around. So, will look for a repeat of 10/9 win when faced 4 from this field.
4-Explosive (10-1)-Will overlook last on a sloppy track. In previous start raced wide and had a rough trip but kept coming and that was the 1st start in 5 weeks. Could be sitting on a big try in 3rd local start and should be a nice price.
0.50 Late Pick 4
1,3,7,10/2,3,4/1,4/2,4
Total Bet=$24
October 23, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
The Meadowlands has 13 races set to go this evening. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 10, the sequence has a 15% takeout and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 10
1-Broadway Bruiser (9/2)-Took the long way around from the 10-hole in last to finish 2nd. Not sure trying to set the pace will help chances but can be forwardly placed. Big chance with the right trip.
3-Trixie Dust (8-1)-Like #1 had a tough trip but kept coming to get a 2nd place check. Should get a better journey and could improve in 3rd straight Big M start.
7-Shady McCoy (10-1)-Is only 2-17 on an off track but did race big in the slop last week. Tried hard in both Big M starts and looks like a player but is 0-22 this year. East Rutherford record, 11 wins in 66 starts, is cause for hope.
10-Chiplosive (3-1)-Smoked everyone last week from the 10-hole and drew off by 4 lengths on a "good" track. Form has been good in last 2 efforts and did notch 1st Big M win. This post will make it tough but best to respect.
Race 11
2-Teal Hanover (3-1)-Drops back to a better level. In last start followed cover and was not a threat but did pace a quick 2nd half. Looking for similar but needs the right steer and to follow live cover.
3-Shellie De Vie (9/2)-Shellie was better when dropped to this level but did not get the best of trips. Should be put in play early and may leave to get the top.
4-Sudden Passing (7/2)-Burke trainee ships in from Philly and faces easier. Allard will likely have the pedal down from the start and it will be a question of how far this 5-year-old mare can carry her speed.
Race 12
1-Commanding Officer (3-1)-Returns from the Red Mile to a class were this colt had 2 straight wins. Has been off almost 2 weeks so will look for a return to better form on a track where his record has been a perfect 2-2.
4-JK Objection (4-1)-Has been idle since 8/4 but tuned up nicely with a 56.2 back half in a qualifier at the Big M. This will be the 1st start for Takter for a freshman who has shown very good speed.
Race 13
2-Muay Hanover (15-1)-Will toss last start on a sloppy track from the 9-hole and record on an off track is 1-24. Bailey can leave from this post and get sucked around. So, will look for a repeat of 10/9 win when faced 4 from this field.
4-Explosive (10-1)-Will overlook last on a sloppy track. In previous start raced wide and had a rough trip but kept coming and that was the 1st start in 5 weeks. Could be sitting on a big try in 3rd local start and should be a nice price.
0.50 Late Pick 4
1,3,7,10/2,3,4/1,4/2,4
Total Bet=$24
Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 10/23/20
October 23, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Big Chick; 4-My Princess Ellie
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Big Chick made up a ton of ground and galloped out strongly when a distant but better-than-looked fourth vs. maiden $32,000 foes on turf at Golden Gate Fields earlier this month and today returns to the main track, adds blinkers, picks up U. Rispoli and draws the inside post in this soft maiden claiming miler for juvenile fillies. She appears to be progressing with experience and if she can display improved tactical speed the T. Yakteen-trained daughter of Mr. Big may be capable of producing a winning late bid. My Princess Ellie is the logical top pick and one to beat after being considered good enough to be entered as a maiden in the Juvenile Fillies Turf S. at Del Mar last month. Clearly, this is an infinitely easier group, and with high percentage jockey/trainer combo of P. Miller and F. Prat combining with the class drop into the maiden $40,000 ranks this daughter of Temple City projects to be a short priced favorite. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then, because she’ll be a better price, press a bit using Big Chick in the win pool.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: X
Use: 4-Flash Magic; 5-Beautiful Gift
View Video Analysis
Forecast: This maiden-special-weight main track miler drew just five entrants, two of which are stable mates in the B. Baffert barn. Beautiful Gift finished a decent third sprinting in her debut at Del Mar in a race that produced the one-two finishers of the last Sunday’s Anoakia Stakes and in doing so earned a speed figure that is good enough to beat this field. The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro seems likely to improve with distance and experience and shows a recent bullet gate drill (5f, :59 1/5, fastest of 38) to indicate she came out of her first start in fine fettle and likely will step forward. Flash Magic was a highly-promising runner-up to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies S.-G1-bound Princess Noor in her debut in August but then missed by a nose as the 3/5 favorite in a subsequent maiden sprint here last month. Instead of producing a forward move as expected, the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile had her Beyer speed figure drop 13 points and really didn’t have any apparent excuse. She stretches out to a distance she’s bred to like, and if she bounces back to the effort that she produced in her first start she’ll be tough. In a race that probably is best left alone, we’ll use the two Baffert fillies in our rolling exotics but otherwise not get involved.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-City Rage; 4-Rip City
View Video Analysis
Forecast: This starter’s allowance miler on grass boils down to a pair of familiar rivals. Rip City, an impressive high-priced maiden-claiming winner over this course and distance on New Year’s Day, didn’t make it back to the races until late August but returned as well as he left when registering a game starter’s allowance win by a desperate nose over City Rage, who franked the from by scoring in convincing fashion earlier this month. They meet again under similar conditions and are extremely difficult to separate. Rip City has more tactical speed of the two and projects to draw into an ideal stalking position behind the likely pacesetter Dr. Troutman and then have every chance to get the first jump on ‘Rage when cut loose at the top of the lane. ‘Rage retains F. Prat will be within range throughout and certainly can win. On pure speed figures, the two are practically dead-even. We’ll give Rip City a very slight edge on top but use both equally in our rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B+
Single: 6-Pretty Saylee
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Let’s take a stand with Pretty Saylee in this six-runner maiden $32,000 claiming sprint for juvenile fillies. Drawn comfortably outside and sporting the always-dangerous blinkers off angle, the daughter of Shackleford easily projects as the lone speed, and in a field with suspect closers she’ll have every chance to keep on going. Freshened since early August and showing a bullet half mile drill
47 2/5, fastest of 65) since raced, the L. Mendez-trained filly is a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:13 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Master Ryan; 6-N. K. Rocket Man
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Master Ryan projects to be the favorite again in this state-bred maiden turf sprint, but can you trust him? In the frame in seven of eight career starts but a beaten choice five times including his last four starts, the son of Grazen shows speed figures that have stagnated, so what you’ve seen is probably what you’ll get, However, in a below average race for the level the P. D’Amato-trained gelding may have found a field he can outlast. N. K. Rocket Man, a close fifth in the same race ‘Ryan exits, may be more appealing. With just four career outings the son of Unusual Heat probably has a bit more upside than ‘Ryan and today will race without blinkers for the first time after appearing erratic and unfocused in each of his four starts. It’s debatable whether the equipment change will help, but if he drops his head and concentrates on the task at hand the D. Pederson-trained 4-year-old has enough natural ability to produce a dangerous late kick. Both should be included in rolling exotic play but due to price considerations we’ll give N. K. Rocket Man the edge on top.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:44 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Bam Bam Again; 2-Gryffindor; 5-Next Revolt
View Video Analysis
Forecast: The three listed above exit the same race, with Bam Bam Again, who was even money in that Oct. 3 event over this track and distance, trying to make amends after failing to land a blow when checking in a well-beaten fifth. A $16,000 claim by R. Santana out of that affair, the son of Awesome Again has a right to rebound for his new connections from an inside draw that guarantees a ground-saving, pace-stalking trip. A repeat of his race before last (second, beaten less than a length while four clear of the others) is good enough to win. Gryffindor and Next Revolt finished two-three in that Oct. 3 race won by Debt Monger and both have a strong look right back. Gryffindor was used hard after a sluggish start to make the running and in a form reversal proved hard to down, beaten less than a length. Next Revolt had every chance when finishing reasonably well to be third, retains F. Prat, and shows a bullet half mile workout47 flat, fastest of 53) seven days ago that really catches the eye. All three should be included on your rolling tickets; we’ll give Bam Bam Again a very slight nod on top while hoping that he’ll recapture his best form for his new connections.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:14 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Hurley; 5-Nice Ice; 6-Clearly Gone
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Nice Ice was in too tough when setting the pace but weakening late vs. stronger first-level allowance competition but she returns to the straight $40,000 claiming ranks today and catches a field that should allow her to be on or near a soft early pace throughout. A repeat of her clever score two runs back should be good enough to beat this field, and it’s significant that while she’s dropping in class the J. Mullins-trained mare still remains well above her claim level. A sharp recent training track breeze is another positive factor. Clearly Gone, first off the claim for P. Miller (an amazing 35% with a massive flat-bet profit with this angle), likes to lag well off the pace and blast home, and if she can get some help up front she should make her presence felt in the final furlong. The raise from $25,000 to $40,000 is a very good sign that she’s well-liked by her connections. Hurley, a $32,000 claim by E. Truman in mid-August at Del Mar, returns on the raise, gets a good inside post, and switches to U. Rispoli, so we’re expecting the Mucho Macho Man filly to fire a big shot. Nosed out by Clearly Gone last time out, she shows a healthy recent series of workouts and projects to enjoy an ideal second flight, ground-saving trip. In a race that any one of the three listed above can win, we’ll give the potential pacesetter Nice Ice a very slight edge on top.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: B (Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 2-Camby; 3-Posterize
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Posterize should be too quick for this $20,000 claiming group and we’ll prefer him on top while using Camby as a saver on our rolling exotic ticket. In his second start since being claimed for $25,000 by D. O’Neill at Del Mar, the Shackleford gelding drops a notch below his purchase level after finishing third in a race that was marked by torrid early fractions. The pace flow projects to be considerably softer today and a solid five furlong workout last week in addition to the monumental jockey switch to F. Prat should have him set for a strong effort over a track that has produced all three of his career victories. Camby just won at this level in game style and has finished first or second in six of eighth career outings over the local main track. The son of Candy Ride should be set for another good try but most likely will have to deal with quicker early splits.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 4:59 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Check Out; 4-Mime
Forecast: Mime drops considerably in class and returns to sprinting, so we’re expecting the Q, Howey-trained filly to regain her winning form in this restricted (nw-2) $6,250 dash for fillies and mares. She has several back numbers in one-turn races that are better than par for this level, and with the break in the weights with the switch to bug rider S. Rivera she should be along in time. Check Out represents inside speed in a field with little of it so it’s not inconceivable that she makes an easy lead and gets brave. Her maiden win over this all-weather surface last spring charts very well in this modest spot. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Mime.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:14 PT Grade: B (Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 1-Squared Shady; 6-Mensa On Tao; 8-Westward Breeze
View Video Analysis
Forecast: The nightcap is an abbreviated turf sprint for state-bred juvenile fillies. For the purpose of this analysis, we’re going to assume that the certain favorite Allie’s Pal will not draw into the field from the also-eligible. Obviously, if she does, she’ll be the one to beat and we’ll update our wagering strategies later in the morning. Squared Shady lands post one (a good place to be when the rails are out 30 feet), adds blinkers, and switches to grass, so J. Bonde-trained filly seems likely to improve a ton. After displaying promise when flashing good early speed but weakening late in her debut at Del Mar, she went backwards with a very wide trip in her most recent appearance but should be capable of doing much better over this course and distance. Westward Breeze is a first-timer by Munnings with a useful series of drills, and while we doubt she’s any world beater and the barn doesn’t often win with debut runners, she still should be competitive. We really have no idea whether the San Luis Rey Downs-based shipper Mensa On Tap can run, but she’s bred for turf and to have early speed. The barn hasn’t won a race this year but the work tab looks promising, so at the price this daughter of Smart Bid is worth including somewhere on your ticket.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 9: Post 5:29 PT Grade: C
Use: 1-Awesome Silver; 5-Punaluu; 7-Tina’s Exchange
Forecast: This restricted $6,250 contains several old pros that are eligible due to the non-winners since August 1 restriction so we’ll triple the race on our ticket but suggest to those with bigger budgets to spread as deeply as you believe is necessary. Tina’s Exchange won a $20,000 turf sprint in late August but today surfaces for $4,000, so assuming he passes the morning veterinarian inspection the S. Miyadi-trained 7-year-old obviously will be the one to beat. He’s never raced over an all-weather surface, which prevents us from taking a stand and making him a single. Punaluu is another plummeting in class and is just 1-for-13 over this all-weather surface but based on his recent speed figures and a break in the weights the I. Tamayo-trained gelding looks reasonably dangerous. He likes to settle and produce a late run and with clear sailing could be heard from late. Awesome Silver has won 10 races at Golden Gate Fields and 15 overall and today he’ll be making his 75th career start. His recent numbers aren’t bad but he’s returning of short (12 days). Out of respect, we’ll toss him in.
October 23, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Big Chick; 4-My Princess Ellie
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Big Chick made up a ton of ground and galloped out strongly when a distant but better-than-looked fourth vs. maiden $32,000 foes on turf at Golden Gate Fields earlier this month and today returns to the main track, adds blinkers, picks up U. Rispoli and draws the inside post in this soft maiden claiming miler for juvenile fillies. She appears to be progressing with experience and if she can display improved tactical speed the T. Yakteen-trained daughter of Mr. Big may be capable of producing a winning late bid. My Princess Ellie is the logical top pick and one to beat after being considered good enough to be entered as a maiden in the Juvenile Fillies Turf S. at Del Mar last month. Clearly, this is an infinitely easier group, and with high percentage jockey/trainer combo of P. Miller and F. Prat combining with the class drop into the maiden $40,000 ranks this daughter of Temple City projects to be a short priced favorite. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then, because she’ll be a better price, press a bit using Big Chick in the win pool.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: X
Use: 4-Flash Magic; 5-Beautiful Gift
View Video Analysis
Forecast: This maiden-special-weight main track miler drew just five entrants, two of which are stable mates in the B. Baffert barn. Beautiful Gift finished a decent third sprinting in her debut at Del Mar in a race that produced the one-two finishers of the last Sunday’s Anoakia Stakes and in doing so earned a speed figure that is good enough to beat this field. The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro seems likely to improve with distance and experience and shows a recent bullet gate drill (5f, :59 1/5, fastest of 38) to indicate she came out of her first start in fine fettle and likely will step forward. Flash Magic was a highly-promising runner-up to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies S.-G1-bound Princess Noor in her debut in August but then missed by a nose as the 3/5 favorite in a subsequent maiden sprint here last month. Instead of producing a forward move as expected, the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile had her Beyer speed figure drop 13 points and really didn’t have any apparent excuse. She stretches out to a distance she’s bred to like, and if she bounces back to the effort that she produced in her first start she’ll be tough. In a race that probably is best left alone, we’ll use the two Baffert fillies in our rolling exotics but otherwise not get involved.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-City Rage; 4-Rip City
View Video Analysis
Forecast: This starter’s allowance miler on grass boils down to a pair of familiar rivals. Rip City, an impressive high-priced maiden-claiming winner over this course and distance on New Year’s Day, didn’t make it back to the races until late August but returned as well as he left when registering a game starter’s allowance win by a desperate nose over City Rage, who franked the from by scoring in convincing fashion earlier this month. They meet again under similar conditions and are extremely difficult to separate. Rip City has more tactical speed of the two and projects to draw into an ideal stalking position behind the likely pacesetter Dr. Troutman and then have every chance to get the first jump on ‘Rage when cut loose at the top of the lane. ‘Rage retains F. Prat will be within range throughout and certainly can win. On pure speed figures, the two are practically dead-even. We’ll give Rip City a very slight edge on top but use both equally in our rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B+
Single: 6-Pretty Saylee
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Let’s take a stand with Pretty Saylee in this six-runner maiden $32,000 claiming sprint for juvenile fillies. Drawn comfortably outside and sporting the always-dangerous blinkers off angle, the daughter of Shackleford easily projects as the lone speed, and in a field with suspect closers she’ll have every chance to keep on going. Freshened since early August and showing a bullet half mile drill
47 2/5, fastest of 65) since raced, the L. Mendez-trained filly is a logical rolling exotic single.*
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RACE 5: Post: 3:13 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Master Ryan; 6-N. K. Rocket Man
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Master Ryan projects to be the favorite again in this state-bred maiden turf sprint, but can you trust him? In the frame in seven of eight career starts but a beaten choice five times including his last four starts, the son of Grazen shows speed figures that have stagnated, so what you’ve seen is probably what you’ll get, However, in a below average race for the level the P. D’Amato-trained gelding may have found a field he can outlast. N. K. Rocket Man, a close fifth in the same race ‘Ryan exits, may be more appealing. With just four career outings the son of Unusual Heat probably has a bit more upside than ‘Ryan and today will race without blinkers for the first time after appearing erratic and unfocused in each of his four starts. It’s debatable whether the equipment change will help, but if he drops his head and concentrates on the task at hand the D. Pederson-trained 4-year-old has enough natural ability to produce a dangerous late kick. Both should be included in rolling exotic play but due to price considerations we’ll give N. K. Rocket Man the edge on top.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:44 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Bam Bam Again; 2-Gryffindor; 5-Next Revolt
View Video Analysis
Forecast: The three listed above exit the same race, with Bam Bam Again, who was even money in that Oct. 3 event over this track and distance, trying to make amends after failing to land a blow when checking in a well-beaten fifth. A $16,000 claim by R. Santana out of that affair, the son of Awesome Again has a right to rebound for his new connections from an inside draw that guarantees a ground-saving, pace-stalking trip. A repeat of his race before last (second, beaten less than a length while four clear of the others) is good enough to win. Gryffindor and Next Revolt finished two-three in that Oct. 3 race won by Debt Monger and both have a strong look right back. Gryffindor was used hard after a sluggish start to make the running and in a form reversal proved hard to down, beaten less than a length. Next Revolt had every chance when finishing reasonably well to be third, retains F. Prat, and shows a bullet half mile workout
47 flat, fastest of 53) seven days ago that really catches the eye. All three should be included on your rolling tickets; we’ll give Bam Bam Again a very slight nod on top while hoping that he’ll recapture his best form for his new connections.*
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RACE 7: Post: 4:14 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Hurley; 5-Nice Ice; 6-Clearly Gone
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Nice Ice was in too tough when setting the pace but weakening late vs. stronger first-level allowance competition but she returns to the straight $40,000 claiming ranks today and catches a field that should allow her to be on or near a soft early pace throughout. A repeat of her clever score two runs back should be good enough to beat this field, and it’s significant that while she’s dropping in class the J. Mullins-trained mare still remains well above her claim level. A sharp recent training track breeze is another positive factor. Clearly Gone, first off the claim for P. Miller (an amazing 35% with a massive flat-bet profit with this angle), likes to lag well off the pace and blast home, and if she can get some help up front she should make her presence felt in the final furlong. The raise from $25,000 to $40,000 is a very good sign that she’s well-liked by her connections. Hurley, a $32,000 claim by E. Truman in mid-August at Del Mar, returns on the raise, gets a good inside post, and switches to U. Rispoli, so we’re expecting the Mucho Macho Man filly to fire a big shot. Nosed out by Clearly Gone last time out, she shows a healthy recent series of workouts and projects to enjoy an ideal second flight, ground-saving trip. In a race that any one of the three listed above can win, we’ll give the potential pacesetter Nice Ice a very slight edge on top.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: B (Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 2-Camby; 3-Posterize
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Posterize should be too quick for this $20,000 claiming group and we’ll prefer him on top while using Camby as a saver on our rolling exotic ticket. In his second start since being claimed for $25,000 by D. O’Neill at Del Mar, the Shackleford gelding drops a notch below his purchase level after finishing third in a race that was marked by torrid early fractions. The pace flow projects to be considerably softer today and a solid five furlong workout last week in addition to the monumental jockey switch to F. Prat should have him set for a strong effort over a track that has produced all three of his career victories. Camby just won at this level in game style and has finished first or second in six of eighth career outings over the local main track. The son of Candy Ride should be set for another good try but most likely will have to deal with quicker early splits.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 4:59 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Check Out; 4-Mime
Forecast: Mime drops considerably in class and returns to sprinting, so we’re expecting the Q, Howey-trained filly to regain her winning form in this restricted (nw-2) $6,250 dash for fillies and mares. She has several back numbers in one-turn races that are better than par for this level, and with the break in the weights with the switch to bug rider S. Rivera she should be along in time. Check Out represents inside speed in a field with little of it so it’s not inconceivable that she makes an easy lead and gets brave. Her maiden win over this all-weather surface last spring charts very well in this modest spot. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Mime.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:14 PT Grade: B (Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 1-Squared Shady; 6-Mensa On Tao; 8-Westward Breeze
View Video Analysis
Forecast: The nightcap is an abbreviated turf sprint for state-bred juvenile fillies. For the purpose of this analysis, we’re going to assume that the certain favorite Allie’s Pal will not draw into the field from the also-eligible. Obviously, if she does, she’ll be the one to beat and we’ll update our wagering strategies later in the morning. Squared Shady lands post one (a good place to be when the rails are out 30 feet), adds blinkers, and switches to grass, so J. Bonde-trained filly seems likely to improve a ton. After displaying promise when flashing good early speed but weakening late in her debut at Del Mar, she went backwards with a very wide trip in her most recent appearance but should be capable of doing much better over this course and distance. Westward Breeze is a first-timer by Munnings with a useful series of drills, and while we doubt she’s any world beater and the barn doesn’t often win with debut runners, she still should be competitive. We really have no idea whether the San Luis Rey Downs-based shipper Mensa On Tap can run, but she’s bred for turf and to have early speed. The barn hasn’t won a race this year but the work tab looks promising, so at the price this daughter of Smart Bid is worth including somewhere on your ticket.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 9: Post 5:29 PT Grade: C
Use: 1-Awesome Silver; 5-Punaluu; 7-Tina’s Exchange
Forecast: This restricted $6,250 contains several old pros that are eligible due to the non-winners since August 1 restriction so we’ll triple the race on our ticket but suggest to those with bigger budgets to spread as deeply as you believe is necessary. Tina’s Exchange won a $20,000 turf sprint in late August but today surfaces for $4,000, so assuming he passes the morning veterinarian inspection the S. Miyadi-trained 7-year-old obviously will be the one to beat. He’s never raced over an all-weather surface, which prevents us from taking a stand and making him a single. Punaluu is another plummeting in class and is just 1-for-13 over this all-weather surface but based on his recent speed figures and a break in the weights the I. Tamayo-trained gelding looks reasonably dangerous. He likes to settle and produce a late run and with clear sailing could be heard from late. Awesome Silver has won 10 races at Golden Gate Fields and 15 overall and today he’ll be making his 75th career start. His recent numbers aren’t bad but he’s returning of short (12 days). Out of respect, we’ll toss him in.
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Lee's Free Friday Selection Is
JACKSONVILLE STATE +10 Thank You for Stopping and Hopefully Shopping but Either Way Make Sure to Check Back for the Next Winning Update Including ANOTHER FREE SELECTION HERE for Saturday by Noon Eastern! [FONT="] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [/FONT]
[/FONT]JACKSONVILLE STATE +10 Thank You for Stopping and Hopefully Shopping but Either Way Make Sure to Check Back for the Next Winning Update Including ANOTHER FREE SELECTION HERE for Saturday by Noon Eastern! [FONT="] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [/FONT]
