Sunday Service Play Thread 11/01/2020

BuzzKill · Oct 25, 2020

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Yankees5560 · Oct 26, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Nov 1 2020 4:05PM
275 LAC -1.0(-110) Westgate vs 276 DEN double-dime bet

Analysis: Pure power ratings play. I line this game LAC -3 -120 and expect it to be bet up.

abecker17 · Oct 26, 2020

Dave Essler GOY
Lions +3

Double Dime-Cleveland -2.5

Yankees5560 · Oct 27, 2020

Warren Sharp

Add: 259 Las Vegas Raiders +3 -120 (0.75 units)
Add: 274 NY Giants Under 48 (0.5 units)
Add: 275 LA Chargers Over 44.5 (0.75 units)

Yankees5560 · Oct 27, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Nov 1 2020 1:00PM
281 PIT 5.0(-110) William Hill vs 282 BAL double-dime bet

Analysis:

Not being talked about enough is Lamar Jackson's regression as a passer this season. Sure, he is still playing well, but he is not playing at the same level he was at last season. Film guys and even Lamar himself has constantly said that the passing game has not been up to par this season.

Pittsburgh is going to force Baltimore into throwing the ball. The Steelers second ranked run defense in YPC allowed held down Derrick Henry last week, and this Steelers elite defense gave Lamar trouble last year during his MVP season, holding him to 5.8 YPA, 1 touchdown pass, and 3 interceptions. Pittsburgh offensively has far superior weapons then what Baltimore has.

This is a series where historically it's been tough for the winning team to get margin. Pittsburgh is in a double revenge spot from last years sweep, and since Mike Tomlin was hired as the Steelers coach in 2007, the Steelers are 60.5% ATS as a road underdog.

I like Pittsburgh all the way down to 3.5

BuzzKill · Oct 28, 2020

Texas Tornado

B) New Orleans - 4

Yankees5560 · Oct 28, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Side - Thursday, Oct 29 2020 8:20PM
101 ATL 8.5(-120) Westgate vs 102 CAR double-dime bet

Analysis: 2* 6 PT TEASER: Atlanta +8.5/Green Bay -0.5 -120

In season revenge spot for an Atlanta offense has played significantly better with Julio Jones healthy (Julio missed the game against Carolina earlier this season). Matt Ryan is averaging 1.7 more YPA with Julio in the lineup, and Carolina will likely be without LT Russell Okung. Carolina struggles to stop the run, and Matt Ryan is likely to experience a clean pocket against a Panthers defense that is 29th in pressure rate.

Carolina has been an underrated team all season, but I do not trust them to get margin against an Atlanta team as good as anyone at back door covers late in games, and is one late game mistake away from being 2-0 SU since firing HC Dan Quinn.

Green Bay has a fundamental matchup edge against Minnesota, something that I mentioned in our week one play on Green Bay against the Vikings. Aaron Rodgers has feasted on weak defenses this season, throwing for 2 touchdowns and at least 8 YPA against the Vikings, Texans, Falcons, Lions, and Saints defense. The Vikings are 0-3 SU and ATS against the Packers in the last two years, as the Packers front of Kenny Clark and the Smith brothers have given this Vikings offense fits, especially if you ignore the garbage time second half stats from this seasons week one battle.

Minnesota might be throwing in the towel on this season, trading their best pass rusher during the bye week, placed Danielle Hunter on IR, plus are dealing with injuries to their cornerbacks...but the most important handicap is the matchup edges that Green Bay has against Minnesota, going back to last year when Minnesota was a good team.

Yankees5560 · Oct 28, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Nov 1 2020 4:25PM
267 NOS / 268 CHI UNDER 44.0 Westgatedouble-dime bet

Analysis: Matchup of a dead nuts over team in the Saints against a dead nuts under team in the Bears.

I like this game to go under, and believe the projected 20+ MPH winds hurt the Saints more then it does Chicago.

The Saints are potentially dealing with cluster injuries at wide receiver, and the narrative on Brees has been that his arm strength isn't what it used to be. Well, you are going to need arm strength playing outdoors against one of the best defenses in the NFL in heavy winds. I expect the Saints to rely even more heavily on the short passing game and run game against Chicago.

Chicago will also be effected by the weather, and they do not have the run game to maintain long drives. No team has run for less rushing yards per game then Chicago over the last month, while the Saints run defense remains the strength of their defense going back to last season.

Yankees5560 · Oct 28, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Nov 1 2020 1:00PM
255 NEP / 256 BUF UNDER 44.0 Westgatedouble-dime bet

Analysis: New England is a dead nuts under team, as I said last week in our New England/San Fran handicap. Since last season, the Patriots are 9-14 to the under, and this season their offense identity is a run first, ball control offense with very little explosiveness. New England is 29th in scoring offense and the reality of this team is that they need to win games ugly. The Patriots have scored a grand total of 28 points in their last three games.

The last 4 matchups between these two teams in 2018 and 2019 included only 31, 36, 26, 41 points. Josh Allen has not been able to figure out Bill Belichick's defense. Allen in three career games against Belichick is 46 of 95 passing, good for a putrid 6.1 yards per attempt and a 3 to 5 TD/INT ratio.

Josh Allen has struggled his last three games overall, but he also struggled in his most recent weather effected game, going 14 of 27 for 4.5 YPA and leading his Bills offense to only 17 points against the Chiefs two weeks ago. Rain and 16 MPH winds are in the forecast, further solidifying a play on under.

ConleyPicks · Oct 28, 2020

KEVIN BRAUDIS ALL FOOTBALL PLAYS

Game: (251) Indianapolis Colts at (252) Detroit Lions
Date/Time: Nov 1 2020 1:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D%
Play: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (-117)

ConleyPicks · Oct 28, 2020

Early Release
H&H Sports (NFL) - C Dime Miami Dolphins +4

ryangenero · Oct 28, 2020

Football Jesus Podcast FREE PICK seahawks

jjkop · Oct 29, 2020

FEZZIK | NFL TOTAL SUN, 11/01/20 - 1:00 PM
254 GBP / 253 MIN Under 53.5 Pinnacle

double-dime bet

Analysis:

äWIND!

Pick Made: Oct 28 2020 7:53AM PST

jjkop · Oct 29, 2020

FEZZIK | NFL TOTAL SUN, 11/01/20 - 4:25 PM
268 CHI / 267 NOS Under 44.0 Southpoint

double-dime bet

Analysis:

Weaäther

Pick Made: Oct 28 2020 7:54AM PST

jjkop · Oct 29, 2020

FEZZIK | NFL TOTAL SUN, 11/01/20 - 1:00 PM
260 CLE / 259 LVR Under 53.5 Pinnacle

double-dime bet

Analysis:

äWeather

Pick Made: Oct 28 2020 7:56AM PST

jjkop · Oct 29, 2020

FEZZIK | NFL TOTAL SUN, 11/01/20 - 1:00 PM
256 BUF / 255 NEP Under 43.0 Pinnacle

double-dime bet

Analysis:

ä

Pick Made: Oct 28 2020 7:56AM PST

BuzzKill · Oct 29, 2020

Buzz Kill said:
Texas Tornado

B) New Orleans - 4

B) San Fran + 3

B) OVER 53.5 San Fran / Seattle

ConleyPicks · Oct 30, 2020

VegasInsider

NFL Value Index Edge Plays (18-13-1ytd 58%)
Green Bay Packers -7
Chicago Bears +4.5
Denver Broncos +3.5
New York Giants +11 (Monday Night)

ConleyPicks · Oct 30, 2020

Doc Sports

nfl

G browns-2.5
D g.bay-6.5
D seattle-3+100

ConleyPicks · Oct 30, 2020

Micah Roberts (VegasInsider)
Nascar - XFINITY 500
Martinsville Speedway - Martinsville, Virginia
Sunday 11/1
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Top 5 Finish Prediction
1) #11 Denny Hamlin 6/1
2) #19 Martin Truex Jr 3/1
3) #2 Brad Keselowski 11/2
4) #22 Joey Logano 17/2
5) #12 Ryan Blaney 10/1

Sunday Service Play Thread 11/01/2020

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