I am HUGE (24 - 34 YTD ATS 41%) Week 9 picks

iamhuge · Oct 25, 2020

[FONT=&quot]Here are my picks for the week....I will follow up with short analysis:[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]BC +31.5 CLEMSON[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Georgia -13 KENTUCKY[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Kansas St +3.5 WEST VIRGINIA[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Wake forest -10.5 SYRACUSE[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Ucf – 3 HOUSTON[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]OKLAHOMA ST -3 texas[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Boise state -10 AIR FORCE[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]San jose state -9 NEW MEXICO[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Ohio state -10 PENN STATE[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Arkansas +11 TEXAS A&M[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Missouri +15 FLORIDA[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Navy +15.5 SMU[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]TEXAS TECH +15.5 oklahoma[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]North Carolina -7 VIRGINIA[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]TEXAS STATE +17 louisana[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]San diego state -7.5 UTAH STATE[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]UNLV +10 nevada[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]BYU -28.5 western kentucky[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Best of luck to all![/FONT]

iamhuge · Oct 25, 2020

BC +31.5 CLEMSON

Clemson has played 6 games and has only covered this spread 2 times out of the 6. BC is better than at least 4 of the teams Clemson has played. BC finally has an experienced and poised quarterback who can throw the ball accurately and keep it away from the other jerseys. They are a scrappy team under their new coach.

Can Clemson cover this? Of course they can. Will they? I think the odds are that they won't. Taking the Eagles and all of those points.

iamhuge · Oct 25, 2020

Georgia -13 KENTUCKY

Georgia has had two weeks to reestablish themselves as part of the nation's elite since their loss to Alabama. Well, everyone loses to Alabama. Join the club. If you look at their other 3 games, the Bulldogs covered this spread in all 3 games - while giving up only 12 points per game. Most memorable was how they just ran the ball all over Auburn, taking their manhood away.

Kentucky has had a couple of really good games, most notably their dismantling of Tennessee. Howeverl they have lost 3 of their 5 games (Auburn, Ole Miss and Mizzou) and if they play like they did in any of those games they will be seriously drilled by Georgia.

Probability says that Georgia is going to have a really easy time with this game. I'm laying the points on UGA woof woof!

iamhuge · Oct 26, 2020

Kansas St +3.5 WEST VIRGINIA

If you throw out the opening week debacle loss to Arkansas State, you have a K State team who looks pretty good….actually really good. Sitting at 4-1 with victories over Oklahoma, Texas Tech and TCU you have to consider them as a Big 12 title contender. After thrashing Kansas last week, there is a chance that they play worse this week because playing Kansas might mean you catch some kind of disease related to playing horrible football. Seriously, there is a risk of a look ahead malaise as K State has Oklahoma State next week.

I’d be worried about that, but West Virginia – with losses to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State is already dinged up recordwise. Their OT win over Baylor doesn’t look so special now that the Baylor Mike Bears got beat up by an average Texas team.

In this scenario, I am going with the better team with the icing on the cake getting a field goal with the hook. Taking the Wildcats and the points.

iamhuge · Oct 26, 2020

Wake forest -10.5 SYRACUSE

Wake has woke. After an opening week loss to Clemson, where they scored points and played decent defense, the following week Wake stubbed their toe against NC State. Since then the Deamon Deacons have been un fuego, beating both Virginia and Virginia Tech by 7 points. Both of these teams are far better than the Orange, so the capability of winning this game by 10.5 isn’t a mystery at all.

Turning to Syracuse, we see a disaster in the making. Their offense is averaging less than 20 points per game, so the pesky backdoor cover isn’t as much of an issue here. Of their 5 losses, 3 have been to teams that are not as good as Wake Forest (Pitt, Duke, Liberty) and they dropped these games by 11, 14 and 17 points, respectively. Duke and Liberty were home losses. So the answer is that the ‘Cuse is very capable of losing this game by more than 2 touchdowns.
Wake Forest is averaging 173 yards on the ground and scoring 36.8 points per game while Syracuse defense is yielding 32.5 points per game – including 235 yards per game on the ground. If you hand 35 points to Wake, that means Syracuse is going to have to tally 24 points to cover. I’m not seeing it since they failed to exceed 24 points in any of their 5 losses. This may sound crazy, but the buzz around town is that Syracuse was so relieved that Clemson didn’t annihilate them that they were acting like they won the game when they got back from death valley. Not hating to lose is a bad disposition for teams trying to cover. Give me the Deacons laying the wood.

iamhuge · Oct 26, 2020

Ucf – 3 HOUSTON

For UCF, it’s time to put up or shut up. They can’t pretend that they are undefeated, because George “The Liar” O’Leary isn’t their coach anymore. Actually UCF is still really good, and their losses were to two tough teams (Tulsa and Memphis). When they win, they are very very good because their offense plays really fast and they score a million points. Their 3 wins were decided by an average of 23 points. They will keep scoring. Their Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has passed for 2,178 yards with 19 touchdowns and only three interceptions.

Houston NUTT is a different story. Their coach is a whack job and their play has been inconsistent. When they played a tough team with a good QB, BYU, they essentially got smoted. Their defense is okay, but not fast enough to hold UCF down. Everyone knows this will be a shootout and its likely both teams will score over 40 points, but if UCF gets the ball last, they will score a TD and cover. Feel good story is McKenzie Milton is back running the scout team. Nice kid..wish him well. Meanwhile UCF is going to pay me my monies.

iamhuge · Oct 27, 2020

OKLAHOMA ST -3 texas

Opinions do matter, but track record is important also. No one in the Big 12 has played more consistently than the Cowboys. Certainly no team has showed up better defensively than Oklahoma State. A Big 12 team that has only given up 12 points per game? The Cowboys are allowing opponents to convert on just 18.18 percent of their third downs. That’s really insane. Texas will be their toughest test yet, and certainly Ehlinger will be the best QB that they have seen, but let’s face it, the Longhorn defense which is giving up 32 points per game isn’t in the same class as Oklahoma State. The Longhorn faithful should have known this when they hired Chris Ass to be the Defensive Coordinator.

There used to be a day when defense won championships. The even better news in Stillwater is the Cowboys finally got their quarterback on the field again after the high ankle sprain. The Longhorns are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. That means that people still think that Texas is Texas, well they ain’t. They weren’t able to separate themselves from Texas Tech, TCU or Oklahoma. There is no reason to think that they are any better than Oklahoma State, particularly going on the road. I’ll lay the points on the home team. T Boone Pickens may be all D E D but he still haunts Texas. Go Cowboys!

iamhuge · Oct 27, 2020

Boise state -10 AIR FORCE
Wow Boise looked great on the blue smurf turf against Utah State…..totally dismantling them 42-13. The defense was especially impressive, limiting Utah State to less than 3 yards per carry.

As impressive as Boise was, Air Force looked like complete ass against San Jose State…an opponent they were favored to beat. Especially disappointing was that the Falcon offense was pathetic, only notching 6 points after scoring 40 in their previous game against Navy. We don’t quite know yet how good San Jose State is, but there is no way they are as good as Boise is. Air Force couldn’t generate any rushing yards out of the quarterback position, which is a key to their option offense. I’m not sure they will do much better against a very physical Boise St defense. If Boise has success throwing the ball, which they will, Air Force will have to put the ball in the air to keep up – and that could be really really ugly. I think the Air Force squad will be saying May Day May Day and have to hit the eject button on this one. This one is candy from babies for the Broncs. Laying the wood as Air Force crashes and burns.

iamhuge · Oct 27, 2020

San jose state -9 NEW MEXICO

Life is a mystery, isn’t it? We don’t know at all how good New Mexico is because they haven’t played yet. We do have a taste of San Jose State’s capabilities, as they smothered Air Force last week, holding them to 6 points. That’s a good outing. The Spartans certainly look to be better than they were last year, when they beat New Mexico by 11 points. The Lobos were ass last season, with a record of 2-10 and losing nine straight games to finish the year. They lost half of last year’s starting defense that coughed up 37 points per game. Not a pretty sight.

It’s likely that New Mexico will do better than Air Force and score more than 6 points, but last year’s team only averaged 22 ppg. If I say they will score 17 points, then the Spartans will need to score 27 to cover. Shouldn’t be a problem. San Jose State goes to 2-0 with the double digit win and the cover.

iamhuge · Oct 28, 2020

Ohio state -10 PENN STATE

James Franklin going for game coach of the year after blowing the Indiana game worse than Paris Hilton. Like any other Big 10 contest, there’s not a lot here to chew on. Penn State clearly isn’t as bad as they looked against Indiana. Statistically they controlled the game, and probably won it anyway since if the replay official had any sack, he would have reversed the call at the end. Never mind all that, because it really doesn’t matter.

Before anyone even knew what COVID was, most of the CFB sharpies had Ohio State penciled into the national championship game this season. They have one of the top quarterbacks in the game and actually play defense better than Clemson does. Does all of this add up to a 10 point victory over Penn State? Well, they turned the Cornhuskers into a Pinata last week – popping 52 points on them instead of taking a knee at the end. The Nittany Lions always play Ohio State tough – until they don’t. I have to say that if Ohio State was playing Indiana this week, I’d lay the 10 points in a heartbeat. If Penn State was playing Nebraska this week, I’d take Nebraska and the 35 points. What am I saying? Well, Ohio State looked a lot better than Penn State did last week.

Urban Meyer said that all 11 of Ohio State’s offensive starters will be drafted this year. Their defense held Nebraska to 160 passing yards last week. Penn State’s QB Clifford just isn’t that good and couldn’t get rid of the ball fast enough against the Hoosiers. I think Ohio State is every bit as good as Clemson is, and Clemson is laying 30 point lines every week. That’s all I have to go on, so I am laying the wood and taking the Big 10 champs.

iamhuge · Oct 28, 2020

Arkansas +11 TEXAS A&M

Whooo pig. I don’t think I have ever been to Arkansas. But when I see a team who plays good defense getting 11 points, I definitely become interested. After a week 1 tumble against a very good Georgia team, Arkansas has been really good against stiff competition. Prior to a restful bye week, the Hogs went 2-1 against Ole Siss, Mississippi State and Auburn with an average score of 27-22.

The one common opponent, Miss State, was beaten by both Arkansas and Texas A&M and both teams although the Aggies dominated the game and the Hogs won via the turnover route. Regardless, Coach Pittman has Fayetteville shouting Whoo Pig! as the Razorbacks are balling out. If you believe in mean reversion, ignore this stat but Arkansas ranks third in FBS with 13 turnovers forced, and the Razorbacks have picked off opposing quarterbacks 10 times. This is important because the Aggies have not been very careful with the football this season with 7 turnovers in their 4 games. Another Aggie flaw is their Red Zone defense as opponents have found paydirt in 8 of their 11 possessions down there.

It’s no secret that A&M is going to feed Isaiah Spiller as much as they can in order to keep the ball out of fraudulent Kellen Mond’s hands. However, the success they may have moving the chains on the ground will only make the clock go tick tick tick and limit their own offensive possessions which gives them less time to score enough points to cover the spread. Five of the last six meetings have been determined by a touchdown or less and most of those seasons was when Arkansas was ass. It’s extremely likely that the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter will see the Razorbacks playing up to the cover and will be worth watching from Lance’s sports book. I am taking the points and Whoooo Pig!

iamhuge · Oct 28, 2020

Missouri +15 FLORIDA

Sometimes I think that the vaunted Gator defense went the way of Governor Desantis’ brain, giving up over 33 points per game. allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 66.4 percent of their throws Dude..is this the Big 12? Meanwhile, the Mizzou offense is coming into its own, scoring 65 points in its last two games against LSU and Kentucky – not the Little Sisters of the poor – and winning both of those games. It’s crazy how much Missouri dominated Kentucky in their last game, holding them to 10 points and 8 first downs.

Florida has been off 3 weeks because they are a COVID ecosystem these days. That’s not a good amount of time off for a team that is having trouble tackling. Florida is going to win, but their defense is so soft that the backdoor cover is going to be looming in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter. I love the points. Tigers +15.

iamhuge · Oct 29, 2020

Navy +15.5 SMU

SMU defense has had a lot of trouble stopping other teams, and Navy presents a particularly difficult challenge with its unique triple option attack. The Middies offense has been playing better as of late. While SMU’s Shane Buechele has been a media darling, he doesn’t play defense. SMU has shown what happens when they play a physical team when Cincinnati bitch slapped them last week. In SMU’s four victories against FBS teams, the margin of victory was less than a touchdown in 3 of those games. They beat Tulane in Overtime, a team that Navy also beat. So I don’t see the math here how SMU is better by 15.5 points. To make it worse, star receiver Reggie Roberson Jr. and tailback T.J. McDaniel are out for the season.

Navy’s offense moves the chains and eats clock, which will limit SMU’s possessions. SMU’s defense has given up over 200 yards rushing per game. Navy will continue to run the ball even late in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter. If SMU is up by 21 with 5 minutes left in the game, they will be happy to let Navy drive down and score while running the ball.

This will be a really tough cover for the Mustangs, based on what they have done so far this season. Navy has covered six of their last seven games. I am taking the points and Navy!

Ilovetobet · Oct 29, 2020

iamhuge · Oct 30, 2020

TEXAS TECH +15.5 oklahoma
The Sooners are traveling to 2-3 Texas Tech to try and beat them at Lubbock by 16 points. I’m not seeing it. First of all, the Raiders have played 4 of the better Big 12 teams (Texas, K State, Iowa State and West Virginia) and in 3 of the 4 games, they covered this spread. The only time they didn’t was when they lost by 16 points. Oklahoma has already lost to K State and Iowa State so they aren’t the model of consistency, especially with their young QB. In their 4 FBS games, they have only covered this spread once (a 19 point win over TCU). I see a very skinny path for the Sooners to cover this spread, especially when their defense is giving up 33 points per game against Big 12 competition. Oklahoma is out of the CFB playoff lottery and it could be a day where Spencer Rattler tries to hard to make plays which will result in INTs. Give me the points and the Red Raiders.

iamhuge · Oct 30, 2020

North Carolina -7 VIRGINIA
This is one of those head scratcher lines where everyone thinks that Vegas is setting up the public because that’s how they build the big casinos yada yada yada. Listen, UNC has a really good offense that can easily cover this line. They have covered the 7 points in 3 out of their 5 games. Two of those three covers were against better teams than the Cavs (Virginia Tech and NC State).

The Hoos have not been good at all this season. They are 1-4 on the year and their fans are all faceful because they can’t go to their games and wear bow ties. Their governor likes to wear black face and do the Moonwalk. Meanwhile their defense is giving up 31.6 points per game which is kind of scary with the Tar Heel offense, averaging over 550 yards per game in their last 3, coming to town. Virginia has covered this 7 point spread only once in their 4 losses. The Cavaliers are 75th in the FBS in scoring offense so if UNC gets up, Virginia is going to have problems keeping up. I like the Tar Heels a lot in this one.

iamhuge · Oct 30, 2020

TEXAS STATE +17 louisana

Texas State can’t beat anyone, but they have been scrappy this year. Louisana is averaging only 27 points per game, so it’s difficult to cover this big line. In theory, Texas State is the worst team that ULL has seen this year but they have yet to exceed a 17 point victory. On the other hand, in the 6 games Texas State has played against non-top 20 teams (I am excluding BYU), Troy was the only team that has beaten them by more than 17 points. They are averaging 26 points per game so Louisiana is going to need to have an unusual offensive output to cover here. Taking the points and the Bobcats.

iamhuge · Oct 30, 2020

San diego state -7.5 UTAH STATE

I have been told that AAAAAAAAH SDSU never plays well at Logan. AAAAAAAH. However, based on the way that the Aztecs finished the season last year….and picked up where they left off by urinating all over UNLV last week, I have to love their defense. Top it off with the shit show that Utah State showed us last week against Boise.

This is a revenge game for SDSU who got shocked by the Aggies last year. That won’t happen this year. San Diego State loves to run the ball, going for over 300 on the ground last week against Vegas. Even Kelly Stewart was amazed. They are a physical team that likes to punch you in the mouth when they have the ball. Utah State is more of a finesse team but their offense was over matched by Boise last week. I’m sold on San Diego State. Laying the 7.5 on the Aztecs.

iamhuge · Oct 30, 2020

UNLV +10 nevada
No idea on this one. I'll be drunk by then and just like getting the points, at least it keeps me interested until at least halftime. Vegas will probably get smoted but I won't be watching this one. Taking the points because I like home dogs in the new stadium.

iamhuge · Oct 30, 2020

BYU -28.5 western kentucky

As I watch this game Lance will be saying "no sleeping in the book!". I might fall asleep and siss myself but when I wake up I will be liking how the score is going. Zach Wilson is unstoppable. He now has a 78% completion efficiency and 1928 passing yards with a 16:1 TD to INT ratio. He is really really good and should be in the Heisman conversation. This is a perfect stat padder game and BYU is seriously trying to get into CFB playoff conversation, especially since the Big 10 is turning into a dumpster fire.

Although they are Mormons, BYU has had no problem pouring on the caffeine as they run up the score on their opponents. They certainly were not respectful to Navy. BYU is 6-0 and averaging 45 points per game and giving up only 14. They are a walking cover. The Hilltoppers are probably the weakest team they have seen and they are playing at home. BYU is ranked #11 in the country against the run. WKU will not be able to run the ball on them. You know what happens when you can't run the ball on the road? You lose. In their 6 games, BYU has covered this spread 4 times. I like those odds.

WKU is averaging 17 points per game against a lower tier schedule. The Hilltoppers have yet to cover in five games. BYU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Crabtree Cougars have scored at least 40 points in all but one game this year. There is no way BYU isn't going to score at least 50 in this mismatch. I will bet the HOOOOUSE on BYU - it's a mock rubber band game - and then go Spridle.