Weekly Bankroll Builder: October 30 Stronach 5 Play
October 28, 2020 | By Brian Nadeau
Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, and we’ve got another 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park Race 7 (3:28 ET) – 3upfm 16k N3L* at 5 ½ furlongs (turf)
I’m probably playing with fire, but I’m only using the three logicals in the opener, as #9 PROUD MANDATE, #2 GOLDEN CAN, and #3 HONORABLE LILLY just seem a bit better than a mixed bag of gals, and the former has a closing kick, while the latter two have some speed, so I think I have it bookended as well.
Pk5 A horses: 9,2,3 (listed in order of preference)
A drop in class and getting to the turf could wake up #6 MAGICAL ANNA, and Lynch is 21% in turf sprints, so that’s a plus, while #7 TWEET AWAY ROBIN is my price, as she drops from a N1X, trues turf, and didn’t run poorly after a bad start in her lone turf start at GP.
Pk5 B horses: 6,7
Potential B add-ins: #12 Pins and Needles, #4 Missimard, #10 Elsie’s Kid, #14 La Shrimp, #16 Scarfree
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park West Race 8 (3:41 ET) – 3up 12.5k MCL at 1 1/16 miles (turf)
This is an extremely weak group, littered with lifetime maidens, so I’ll go with #2 EL SOLITARIO, who drew best, has run well on the turf, and has started just five times, and #10 SUPER EDGAR, who didn’t draw particularly well but should like getting back to the grass. (As an aside, take note of the scratches, since #12 Karamojo is a lead pipe single should he draw in, though he’s two-deep on the AE list.)
Pk5 A horses: 2,10
There are more than a few you can use here, but I’m only going with #4 PUERTO VARAS, since he draws much better than the parking lot at Tampa last time, and has run just twice on turf, while being competitive both times. You could use #9 Alperes and #5 Noble Nebraskan, but at 0-for-22 and 0-for-18, respectively, they can beat me.
Pk5 B horses: 4
Potential B add-ins: #9 Alperes, #5 Noble Nebraskan
Leg 3: Laurel Park Race 8 (4:00 ET) – 3up N1X at 7 furlongs
I’m taking a stand here and using only #5 MOOSE LODGE and #4 STONE COURAGEOUS, as the former has run just twice and closed both times at Mth, which is tough to do, and gets an extra furlong here, while the latter wins this with his last, a fast 2nd, though obviously he could bounce too since it came from nowhere, but with Smith calling the shots I’ll give this one the benefit of the doubt.
Pk5 A horses: 5,4
This is another spot where there are more than a few alternatives, but I like my top-2 and I’m ok going it alone with them, especially since the rest all look basically the same on paper and would blow up the ticket if they get used.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #8 Absolved, #9 Paul the Waiter
Leg 4: Laurel Park R9 (4:30 ET) – 2yo 40k MCL* at 6 furlongs
I’m a sucker for an MSW dropper, which is what I get with #8 BIG CYPRESS, who didn’t run all that well on debut but will like this group a lot better, from a nice attack post too, and getting McCarthy is a coup as well. Clearly #1 HELLO HOT ROD is a must-use, as Russell is 30% on debut, and the there are a slew of positive works on display too, though the rail is no bargain. I’ll also play #3 DOUBLEOSEVEN, since he closed nicely behind a rousing winner, should get some pace, and I expect him to be a lot closer off that trial run.
Pk5 A horses: 8,1,3
I could easily slide #5 CLEVER AND GREAT up to the top line, since the debut 5th came in a very fast race for the level, though he does rise in class, which is why he’s a supporting actor (before the scratches). Capuano is only 9% on debut, so I’m a bit leery of #7 ESCAPABILITY, but the works whisper ready, most notably that 10/4 bullet, so I think you have to fit him in somewhere.
Pk5 B horses: 5,7
Potential B add-ins: #6 Stimulus Maker, #2 In the Top Ten
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields Race 3 (5:15 ET) – 3upfm 12.5k N2L at 6 furlongs
I’m not in love with the 1-for-12 lifetime record but there’s little doubt #7 TIPPY TOP is the best horse here, and the big class drop from 50k starters should only help, so if you need a single at the end you could do worse than landing on her. With that being said, I’m going to hope for a more patient ride and use #4 THRILL’S LEGACY, who pressed when well behind ‘Tippy last time, but was a lot closer to her two-back when settling early and making a late run, and the risk-reward will be there today too, with a new jock getting aboard as well.
Pk5 A horses: 7,4
There’s a lot of inside speed, so it’s a good sign the fleet #8 NICE AND TRUE draws outside of it, and she was a close 2nd at the level off the claim, while facing winners, so she can improve, and if the droppers aren’t right, then she might have a big lead in midstretch.
Pk5 B horses: 8
Potential B add-ins: #2 Persuasive Lips, #3 Charging Home
The tickets:
Main Ticket: 9,2,3 with 2,10 with 5,4 with 8,1,3 with 7,4 = $72
Leg 1 B Backup: 6,7 with 2,10 with 5,4 with 8,1,3 with 7,4 = $48
Leg 2 b Backup: 9,2,3 with 4 with 5,4 with 8,1,3 with 7,4 = $36
Leg 4 B Backup: 9,2,3 with 2,10 with 5,4 with 5,7 with 7,4 = $48
Leg 5 B Backup: 9,2,3 with 2,10 with 5,4 with 8,1,3 with 8 = $36
October 28, 2020 | By Brian Nadeau
Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, and we’ve got another 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Leg 1: Laurel Park Race 7 (3:28 ET) – 3upfm 16k N3L* at 5 ½ furlongs (turf)
I’m probably playing with fire, but I’m only using the three logicals in the opener, as #9 PROUD MANDATE, #2 GOLDEN CAN, and #3 HONORABLE LILLY just seem a bit better than a mixed bag of gals, and the former has a closing kick, while the latter two have some speed, so I think I have it bookended as well.
Pk5 A horses: 9,2,3 (listed in order of preference)
A drop in class and getting to the turf could wake up #6 MAGICAL ANNA, and Lynch is 21% in turf sprints, so that’s a plus, while #7 TWEET AWAY ROBIN is my price, as she drops from a N1X, trues turf, and didn’t run poorly after a bad start in her lone turf start at GP.
Pk5 B horses: 6,7
Potential B add-ins: #12 Pins and Needles, #4 Missimard, #10 Elsie’s Kid, #14 La Shrimp, #16 Scarfree
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park West Race 8 (3:41 ET) – 3up 12.5k MCL at 1 1/16 miles (turf)
This is an extremely weak group, littered with lifetime maidens, so I’ll go with #2 EL SOLITARIO, who drew best, has run well on the turf, and has started just five times, and #10 SUPER EDGAR, who didn’t draw particularly well but should like getting back to the grass. (As an aside, take note of the scratches, since #12 Karamojo is a lead pipe single should he draw in, though he’s two-deep on the AE list.)
Pk5 A horses: 2,10
There are more than a few you can use here, but I’m only going with #4 PUERTO VARAS, since he draws much better than the parking lot at Tampa last time, and has run just twice on turf, while being competitive both times. You could use #9 Alperes and #5 Noble Nebraskan, but at 0-for-22 and 0-for-18, respectively, they can beat me.
Pk5 B horses: 4
Potential B add-ins: #9 Alperes, #5 Noble Nebraskan
Leg 3: Laurel Park Race 8 (4:00 ET) – 3up N1X at 7 furlongs
I’m taking a stand here and using only #5 MOOSE LODGE and #4 STONE COURAGEOUS, as the former has run just twice and closed both times at Mth, which is tough to do, and gets an extra furlong here, while the latter wins this with his last, a fast 2nd, though obviously he could bounce too since it came from nowhere, but with Smith calling the shots I’ll give this one the benefit of the doubt.
Pk5 A horses: 5,4
This is another spot where there are more than a few alternatives, but I like my top-2 and I’m ok going it alone with them, especially since the rest all look basically the same on paper and would blow up the ticket if they get used.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #8 Absolved, #9 Paul the Waiter
Leg 4: Laurel Park R9 (4:30 ET) – 2yo 40k MCL* at 6 furlongs
I’m a sucker for an MSW dropper, which is what I get with #8 BIG CYPRESS, who didn’t run all that well on debut but will like this group a lot better, from a nice attack post too, and getting McCarthy is a coup as well. Clearly #1 HELLO HOT ROD is a must-use, as Russell is 30% on debut, and the there are a slew of positive works on display too, though the rail is no bargain. I’ll also play #3 DOUBLEOSEVEN, since he closed nicely behind a rousing winner, should get some pace, and I expect him to be a lot closer off that trial run.
Pk5 A horses: 8,1,3
I could easily slide #5 CLEVER AND GREAT up to the top line, since the debut 5th came in a very fast race for the level, though he does rise in class, which is why he’s a supporting actor (before the scratches). Capuano is only 9% on debut, so I’m a bit leery of #7 ESCAPABILITY, but the works whisper ready, most notably that 10/4 bullet, so I think you have to fit him in somewhere.
Pk5 B horses: 5,7
Potential B add-ins: #6 Stimulus Maker, #2 In the Top Ten
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields Race 3 (5:15 ET) – 3upfm 12.5k N2L at 6 furlongs
I’m not in love with the 1-for-12 lifetime record but there’s little doubt #7 TIPPY TOP is the best horse here, and the big class drop from 50k starters should only help, so if you need a single at the end you could do worse than landing on her. With that being said, I’m going to hope for a more patient ride and use #4 THRILL’S LEGACY, who pressed when well behind ‘Tippy last time, but was a lot closer to her two-back when settling early and making a late run, and the risk-reward will be there today too, with a new jock getting aboard as well.
Pk5 A horses: 7,4
There’s a lot of inside speed, so it’s a good sign the fleet #8 NICE AND TRUE draws outside of it, and she was a close 2nd at the level off the claim, while facing winners, so she can improve, and if the droppers aren’t right, then she might have a big lead in midstretch.
Pk5 B horses: 8
Potential B add-ins: #2 Persuasive Lips, #3 Charging Home
The tickets:
Main Ticket: 9,2,3 with 2,10 with 5,4 with 8,1,3 with 7,4 = $72
Leg 1 B Backup: 6,7 with 2,10 with 5,4 with 8,1,3 with 7,4 = $48
Leg 2 b Backup: 9,2,3 with 4 with 5,4 with 8,1,3 with 7,4 = $36
Leg 4 B Backup: 9,2,3 with 2,10 with 5,4 with 5,7 with 7,4 = $48
Leg 5 B Backup: 9,2,3 with 2,10 with 5,4 with 8,1,3 with 8 = $36
Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Pick Late 4 Analysis
October 30, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
It is opening night of Breeders Crown weekend at Hoosier Park. There are 15-races ready to roll with four being Breeder Crown events. The 0.50 late Pick 4 starts in Race 8. The first and third legs will feature top 2-year-old fillies and colts. The sequence has a $40,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 12
2-JK Alwaysbalady (7/2)-Put it all together last week with a 55.3 last half on a sloppy track. Comes off an impressive win and now Gingras chooses over #3, Caviart Audrey. Last could have been a fluke but my guess is things may have finally clicked for this Takter 2-year-old.
5-Scarlett Hanover (4-1)-Seem to like an off-track and just missed by a head of beating #2. Burke trainee is ultra-consistent finishing in the top two in 10 of 13 starts with 6 wins. Draws well and this gal should be there at the wire.
7-First Start Hanover (3-1)-Did all the heavy lifting in the elim and faltered in the final yards. Not sure if faltered is the correct way of putting it, maybe more like eased up. Dunn may have been saving some gas for this week and it is best to respect that possibility.
Race 13
4-Mystical Carrie (3-1)-Home town favorite is 8 of 21 at HoP and has had a nice year banking over $170k. This looks like a 2-horse race and will lean slightly to Carrie because of past experience on this surface.
7-Marloe Hanover (5/2)-Races against tough fillies on different size ovals. Hasn't had the same success as last year but still looks to have the best chance of downing #4. Had a 150.3 mark at the Big M as a 2-year-old but has been mostly working on smaller ovals this season.
Race 14
2-Perfect Sting (7/5)-Always B Mike colt is a perfect 9 for 9. Raced huge last week in 150.4 in the slop and drew off down the lane. The showdown with #3 should be fun to watch.
3-Southwind Gendry (8/5)-Gendry has won 9 of 11 and only losses have come when breaking stride. Has won 2 times at HoP, once on a fast track and last week in the slop. It's hard to split the top pair.
6-Summa Cum Laude (10-1)-Most will use the 2 chalks only in the Pick 4. But this Burke trainee could make things interesting. Has the speed to possibly get the top or at least make the 2 favorites work for it. Should get a good trip, Sears can keep her close and take a shot down the lane at a juicy price.
Race 15
1-JB's Shooting Star (15-1)-Comes of a nice win last week and does best work racing near the top of the stack. Smith should have her forwardly placed and could benefit with the post edge at a solid price.
4-Quite a Sight (10-1)-Widger takes a seat and will toss last versus tougher on a sloppy track. Fits well here and at the morning line odds offers some value and should be in the hunt.
9-Buzinga N (15-1)-Raced well in the slop last week and could blast out to get a good early seat. Has the gate speed for Bates to work a smooth trip and could use a big brush to roll by late.
11-It's Time For Fun (7/2)-Using from the 2nd tier and leaving the morning line chalk #10, who is only 2-26 in 2020, off the ticket. Wilfong could win coming off cover and #2 may leave which could help this mare get a better seat.
0.50 Late Pick 4
2,5,7/4,7/2,3,6/1,4,9,11
Total Bet=$36
October 30, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
It is opening night of Breeders Crown weekend at Hoosier Park. There are 15-races ready to roll with four being Breeder Crown events. The 0.50 late Pick 4 starts in Race 8. The first and third legs will feature top 2-year-old fillies and colts. The sequence has a $40,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 12
2-JK Alwaysbalady (7/2)-Put it all together last week with a 55.3 last half on a sloppy track. Comes off an impressive win and now Gingras chooses over #3, Caviart Audrey. Last could have been a fluke but my guess is things may have finally clicked for this Takter 2-year-old.
5-Scarlett Hanover (4-1)-Seem to like an off-track and just missed by a head of beating #2. Burke trainee is ultra-consistent finishing in the top two in 10 of 13 starts with 6 wins. Draws well and this gal should be there at the wire.
7-First Start Hanover (3-1)-Did all the heavy lifting in the elim and faltered in the final yards. Not sure if faltered is the correct way of putting it, maybe more like eased up. Dunn may have been saving some gas for this week and it is best to respect that possibility.
Race 13
4-Mystical Carrie (3-1)-Home town favorite is 8 of 21 at HoP and has had a nice year banking over $170k. This looks like a 2-horse race and will lean slightly to Carrie because of past experience on this surface.
7-Marloe Hanover (5/2)-Races against tough fillies on different size ovals. Hasn't had the same success as last year but still looks to have the best chance of downing #4. Had a 150.3 mark at the Big M as a 2-year-old but has been mostly working on smaller ovals this season.
Race 14
2-Perfect Sting (7/5)-Always B Mike colt is a perfect 9 for 9. Raced huge last week in 150.4 in the slop and drew off down the lane. The showdown with #3 should be fun to watch.
3-Southwind Gendry (8/5)-Gendry has won 9 of 11 and only losses have come when breaking stride. Has won 2 times at HoP, once on a fast track and last week in the slop. It's hard to split the top pair.
6-Summa Cum Laude (10-1)-Most will use the 2 chalks only in the Pick 4. But this Burke trainee could make things interesting. Has the speed to possibly get the top or at least make the 2 favorites work for it. Should get a good trip, Sears can keep her close and take a shot down the lane at a juicy price.
Race 15
1-JB's Shooting Star (15-1)-Comes of a nice win last week and does best work racing near the top of the stack. Smith should have her forwardly placed and could benefit with the post edge at a solid price.
4-Quite a Sight (10-1)-Widger takes a seat and will toss last versus tougher on a sloppy track. Fits well here and at the morning line odds offers some value and should be in the hunt.
9-Buzinga N (15-1)-Raced well in the slop last week and could blast out to get a good early seat. Has the gate speed for Bates to work a smooth trip and could use a big brush to roll by late.
11-It's Time For Fun (7/2)-Using from the 2nd tier and leaving the morning line chalk #10, who is only 2-26 in 2020, off the ticket. Wilfong could win coming off cover and #2 may leave which could help this mare get a better seat.
0.50 Late Pick 4
2,5,7/4,7/2,3,6/1,4,9,11
Total Bet=$36
Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays - Oct. 30, 2020
October 30, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s National Best Plays for Friday, October 30, 2020
*
Belmont Park – 4th race: Post time: 2:16 ET
8 – Emma and I (20-1)
The 2-year-old daughter of Exaggerator was given an easy run in her debut earlier this month and actually performed better than her line indicates. Was shuffled back to last on the turn and trailed to the top of the lane before showing good energy in the final stages to wind up seventh, beaten only five lengths. She returns in a similar state-bred turf event while stretching out to a distance she’s bred to enjoy, so at 20-1 on the morning line she represents good long shot value across the board and in rolling exotic play.
*
Belmont Park – 9th race: Post time: 4:57 ET
10 – Superfecto (8-1)
Lands the cozy outside post in this seven furlong allowance sprint in his first outing since an impressive maiden win in early May at Gulfstream Park, and his recent two bullet workouts indicate the R. Nicks-trained colt is fit and ready. The lightly-raced son of Constitution should fold into an ideal pace-stalking trip, and if he returns as well as he left this promising 3-year-old colt can win again despite the class hike. We’ll play in in the win pool and in our rolling exotics and or near his morning line of 8-1.
October 30, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s National Best Plays for Friday, October 30, 2020
*
Belmont Park – 4th race: Post time: 2:16 ET
8 – Emma and I (20-1)
The 2-year-old daughter of Exaggerator was given an easy run in her debut earlier this month and actually performed better than her line indicates. Was shuffled back to last on the turn and trailed to the top of the lane before showing good energy in the final stages to wind up seventh, beaten only five lengths. She returns in a similar state-bred turf event while stretching out to a distance she’s bred to enjoy, so at 20-1 on the morning line she represents good long shot value across the board and in rolling exotic play.
*
Belmont Park – 9th race: Post time: 4:57 ET
10 – Superfecto (8-1)
Lands the cozy outside post in this seven furlong allowance sprint in his first outing since an impressive maiden win in early May at Gulfstream Park, and his recent two bullet workouts indicate the R. Nicks-trained colt is fit and ready. The lightly-raced son of Constitution should fold into an ideal pace-stalking trip, and if he returns as well as he left this promising 3-year-old colt can win again despite the class hike. We’ll play in in the win pool and in our rolling exotics and or near his morning line of 8-1.
Top Profitable Handicappers Selections from StopandWinSports
| Teya Sports | Southern Illinois Salukis UNDER |
| Kenny Walker | Tulsa Golden Hurricane | Fri | CFB |
| Brody Vaughn | Tulsa Golden Hurricane UNDER | Fri | CFB |
| Top Rank Sports | Minnesota Gophers | Fri | CFB |
| Golden Lock | East Carolina Pirates ML | Fri | CFB |
| ASA Handicappers | Wyoming Cowboys UNDER |
| SR Email | Minnesota Gophers |
| Doug Upstone | Tulsa Golden Hurricane | Fri | CFB |
Sean Murphy
Oct 30 '20, 7:30 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Minnesota vs Maryland
Play on: Maryland +20 -110 at William Hill
Friday CFB Bonus Play. My selection is on Maryland plus the points over Minnesota at 7:30 pm et on Friday.
I was pretty high on Minnesota entering the start of Big Ten play last week, and actually backed the Golden Gophers in their ugly loss to Michigan. I'm still optimistic that Minnesota will enjoy plenty of success in this unique 2020 campaign, but on Friday night, I can't help but feel it is laying too many points on the road against Maryland. The Terps suffered an absolute beatdown at the hands of Northwestern in their Big Ten opener but now return home where I look for them to play with a lot more emotion. Last week's game got away from them early and took them completely out of their gameplan as they ultimately ran the football only 12 times. Look for Maryland to do a much better job of keeping this one under control and staying within arm's reach of a Golden Gophers squad that clearly still needs to knock off a bit of rust. Take Maryland (8*).
Oct 30 '20, 7:30 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Minnesota vs Maryland
Play on: Maryland +20 -110 at William Hill
Friday CFB Bonus Play. My selection is on Maryland plus the points over Minnesota at 7:30 pm et on Friday.
I was pretty high on Minnesota entering the start of Big Ten play last week, and actually backed the Golden Gophers in their ugly loss to Michigan. I'm still optimistic that Minnesota will enjoy plenty of success in this unique 2020 campaign, but on Friday night, I can't help but feel it is laying too many points on the road against Maryland. The Terps suffered an absolute beatdown at the hands of Northwestern in their Big Ten opener but now return home where I look for them to play with a lot more emotion. Last week's game got away from them early and took them completely out of their gameplan as they ultimately ran the football only 12 times. Look for Maryland to do a much better job of keeping this one under control and staying within arm's reach of a Golden Gophers squad that clearly still needs to knock off a bit of rust. Take Maryland (8*).
Brandon Lee
Oct 30 '20, 9:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | East Carolina vs Tulsa
Play on: Tulsa -17½ -107 at betonline
PICK - Tulsa Golden Hurricane -17.5
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 108
I've been watching this Tulsa team closely. I played against them and lost badly in their opener against Oklahoma State. They ended up losing 17-6 (+23.5).Could have easily won outright.
In their next game @ UCF they won 34-26 as a 20.5-point dog. I was mad I didn't take them against the Knights, but fired with a 50* Top Play in last week's 42-13 win @ USF as a mere 12.5-point favorite.
Tulsa isn't just 3-0, they have covered the spread in those 3 games by an average of 19.8 ppg. Covered all 3 by at least 14.5-points. While I think the books are getting closer, I still think the number here is too short.
I think it's worth noting that ECU was a 28-point home dog to UCF. Tulsa proved they were better, ast least equal to UCF when they played on the field. Factor in ECU is on the road instead of at home and I feel this should be at least past 3 TD's.
I believe even though the results speak volumes to how good this Tulsa team is, people can't get over their defense being any good with only 4 starters backs. They lost 6 of their top 10 tacklers and what many considered their best DL, LB & DB.
I think it's a combination of some guys taking big steps forward (Zaven Collins, LB has been outstanding and he's not even their No. 1 tackler). I also give a lot of props to second-year defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie.
He was the LB coach for 4 years prior to get promoted to DC in 2019. He played a huge role in 2018 (year before he got the job) in installing the Golden Hurricane's 3-3-5 defense that we see today.
This defense is similar to what ISU has used slowing down all those pass-happy teams in the Big 12. I got a feeling, much like we saw with the spread offense, this defensive scheme is going to eventually be the defense everyone runs.
ECU has a good QB in Holton Ahlers, but I see him struggling. Tulsa did give up 330 passing yards to UCF, but that was against a special QB in Dillon Gabriel. What people overlook is that was by far his worst game. Gabriel has thrown for 400+ in every other game. He also only completed 55% vs Tulsa (65%+ in the other 4).
On the flip side of this, Tulsa's offense got some good mojo going after piling it on a bad USF defense last week. They should continue to feast against an awful ECU defense. Pirates are giving up 4.9 yards/carry, 8.3 yards/attempt and 6.3 yards/play. Give me Tulsa -17.5!
Oct 30 '20, 9:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | East Carolina vs Tulsa
Play on: Tulsa -17½ -107 at betonline
PICK - Tulsa Golden Hurricane -17.5
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 108
I've been watching this Tulsa team closely. I played against them and lost badly in their opener against Oklahoma State. They ended up losing 17-6 (+23.5).Could have easily won outright.
In their next game @ UCF they won 34-26 as a 20.5-point dog. I was mad I didn't take them against the Knights, but fired with a 50* Top Play in last week's 42-13 win @ USF as a mere 12.5-point favorite.
Tulsa isn't just 3-0, they have covered the spread in those 3 games by an average of 19.8 ppg. Covered all 3 by at least 14.5-points. While I think the books are getting closer, I still think the number here is too short.
I think it's worth noting that ECU was a 28-point home dog to UCF. Tulsa proved they were better, ast least equal to UCF when they played on the field. Factor in ECU is on the road instead of at home and I feel this should be at least past 3 TD's.
I believe even though the results speak volumes to how good this Tulsa team is, people can't get over their defense being any good with only 4 starters backs. They lost 6 of their top 10 tacklers and what many considered their best DL, LB & DB.
I think it's a combination of some guys taking big steps forward (Zaven Collins, LB has been outstanding and he's not even their No. 1 tackler). I also give a lot of props to second-year defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie.
He was the LB coach for 4 years prior to get promoted to DC in 2019. He played a huge role in 2018 (year before he got the job) in installing the Golden Hurricane's 3-3-5 defense that we see today.
This defense is similar to what ISU has used slowing down all those pass-happy teams in the Big 12. I got a feeling, much like we saw with the spread offense, this defensive scheme is going to eventually be the defense everyone runs.
ECU has a good QB in Holton Ahlers, but I see him struggling. Tulsa did give up 330 passing yards to UCF, but that was against a special QB in Dillon Gabriel. What people overlook is that was by far his worst game. Gabriel has thrown for 400+ in every other game. He also only completed 55% vs Tulsa (65%+ in the other 4).
On the flip side of this, Tulsa's offense got some good mojo going after piling it on a bad USF defense last week. They should continue to feast against an awful ECU defense. Pirates are giving up 4.9 yards/carry, 8.3 yards/attempt and 6.3 yards/play. Give me Tulsa -17.5!
Alex Smart
Oct 30 '20, 9:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | East Carolina vs Tulsa
Play on: East Carolina +17 -109 at GTBets
Im not sold on the fact that Tulsa are solid favs in this spot. My projections make the score a-lot closer than the lines-makers suggestion. Both these teams pounded USF, and both have similar offensive numbers overall with Tulsa being the superior defence. Whats interesting is that Tulsa has proved in the past that playing against a lower level defensive side is not a positive thing for their betting backers as is evident by their 5-18 ATS mark in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att.Add that they're 8-21 ATS mark in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%).
Play on East Carolina to cover
Oct 30 '20, 9:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | East Carolina vs Tulsa
Play on: East Carolina +17 -109 at GTBets
Im not sold on the fact that Tulsa are solid favs in this spot. My projections make the score a-lot closer than the lines-makers suggestion. Both these teams pounded USF, and both have similar offensive numbers overall with Tulsa being the superior defence. Whats interesting is that Tulsa has proved in the past that playing against a lower level defensive side is not a positive thing for their betting backers as is evident by their 5-18 ATS mark in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att.Add that they're 8-21 ATS mark in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%).
Play on East Carolina to cover
ASA
Oct 30 '20, 9:45 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Hawaii vs Wyoming
Play on: UNDER 61 -107
ASA Bonus Play ON: UNDER 61 - Wyoming Cowboys versus Hawaii Warriors, Friday at 9:45 PM ET -Hawaii held Fresno State to just 19 points last week and that looks even more impressive after the Bulldogs hammered Colorado State last night. Wyoming is coming off an OT loss at Nevada but, after that high-scoring road game, we expect a much different result with the Cowboys at home for this one. Look for the defense to respond at home after that ugly effort versus the Wolf Pack and it helps that the Warriors certainly aren't known, historically, for playing very well when traveling to the mainland. Per our computer math model, the defense for Wyoming bounces back but struggles on the offensive side of the ball are plentiful (inconsistency for both teams on that side of the ball) and that keeps the scoring down in this one. Bonus Play UNDER 61 in Wyoming
Oct 30 '20, 9:45 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Hawaii vs Wyoming
Play on: UNDER 61 -107
ASA Bonus Play ON: UNDER 61 - Wyoming Cowboys versus Hawaii Warriors, Friday at 9:45 PM ET -Hawaii held Fresno State to just 19 points last week and that looks even more impressive after the Bulldogs hammered Colorado State last night. Wyoming is coming off an OT loss at Nevada but, after that high-scoring road game, we expect a much different result with the Cowboys at home for this one. Look for the defense to respond at home after that ugly effort versus the Wolf Pack and it helps that the Warriors certainly aren't known, historically, for playing very well when traveling to the mainland. Per our computer math model, the defense for Wyoming bounces back but struggles on the offensive side of the ball are plentiful (inconsistency for both teams on that side of the ball) and that keeps the scoring down in this one. Bonus Play UNDER 61 in Wyoming
Bryan Leonard
Oct 30 '20, 9:45 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Hawaii vs Wyoming
Play on: Wyoming PK -110 at jazz
142 Hawaii at Wyoming
The Rainbow Warriors ran all over Fresno State last week, as Todd Graham has instilled a strong running game on the island. But that was against what we expect to be a weak Bulldogs team this season. Wyoming is one of the better coached teams in college football, and is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Nevada. The Wolf Pack are one of the elite in this conference along with the mighty Boise State Broncos. The last four years Wyoming is 20-6 straight up in War Memorial Stadium. With the line near pick 'em an outright win likely cashes this for the host. During those last four seasons the Cowboys are 17-8 ATS at home. While the Rainbow Warriors stayed in Denver instead of flying back home after the Fresno State game. The weather in Laramie should play a factor for these warm weather warriors.
PLAY WYOMING
Oct 30 '20, 9:45 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Hawaii vs Wyoming
Play on: Wyoming PK -110 at jazz
142 Hawaii at Wyoming
The Rainbow Warriors ran all over Fresno State last week, as Todd Graham has instilled a strong running game on the island. But that was against what we expect to be a weak Bulldogs team this season. Wyoming is one of the better coached teams in college football, and is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Nevada. The Wolf Pack are one of the elite in this conference along with the mighty Boise State Broncos. The last four years Wyoming is 20-6 straight up in War Memorial Stadium. With the line near pick 'em an outright win likely cashes this for the host. During those last four seasons the Cowboys are 17-8 ATS at home. While the Rainbow Warriors stayed in Denver instead of flying back home after the Fresno State game. The weather in Laramie should play a factor for these warm weather warriors.
PLAY WYOMING
105MARSHALL -106 FLA INTERNATIONAL
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game since 1992.
107E CAROLINA -108 TULSA
E CAROLINA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games in the last 3 seasons.
131MINNESOTA -132 MARYLAND
MARYLAND is 38-18 ATS (18.2 Units) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival since 1992.
141HAWAII -142 WYOMING
HAWAII is 94-122 ATS (-40.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game since 1992.
107E CAROLINA -108 TULSA
E CAROLINA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games in the last 3 seasons.
131MINNESOTA -132 MARYLAND
MARYLAND is 38-18 ATS (18.2 Units) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival since 1992.
141HAWAII -142 WYOMING
HAWAII is 94-122 ATS (-40.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
