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Thread: Ballbag's week 6

  1. #1 Ballbag's week 6 
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    YTD 4-1 +3.55 pts
    parlay 0-2 -0.40 pts

    Plenty skinny spreads this week but its a minefield sifting through potential injuries that can affect these short odds. The Books are well on top of any latest news with line moves scuppering any perceived advantage so some chances need to be taken early and hope its a good move.

    CINCINATTI -3 -118 1PT

    Getting this in early as the Lions have definitely increased their bad injury list by at least one which is WR Cephus, this group were already in a hole and now its hanging over the cliff. This only compounds the problems on Offense by restricting the chances of Hochenson and opposing defenses giving less concern deep. The bengals have their own injury concerns and the play calling has to improve but all in all they should win this one comfortably.
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  2. #2  
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    Minnesota M/L -110 1 PT

    Much the same thinking here with the Cook/McCaffrey situation. The Panthers are really struggling at the moment while The Vikings woes are more to do with play calling which surely must change if the coaches want to keep their jobs. Of course one of the advantages of betting the M/L is you can always bail out for a loss if things go against you whereas the spread can move to a point of locking you in. This is one of the big pluses being able to bet on exchanges, the vig is at its lowest. (
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    ARIZONA M/L +149 1 pt

    Possibility this shortens here in as Browns injuries become more widely known. I was expecting the Cards to have a tough game last week when adding all the situational angles and so it proved. The 49ers showed Kingsbury a few strategies that he'll have to account for going forward as they done a good job of keeping Murray from escaping the pocket. The bet is solely on Arizona having more options for change on both Offense and Defense if things dont go to plan and they just need to start fast out of the gate to put the Browns in force mode.
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  4. #4  
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    Going to have to bale out of Arizona bet for now due to rumours of Covid outbreak. 0.05 pt loss
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  5. #5  
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    '
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  6. #6  
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    gl ballbag
    To hell with the steam,the fade,the sharp,the square
    the head fake,the right side....just pick the winner.
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  7. #7  
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    Thanks JETE, this covid stuff is complicating everything.
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  8. #8  
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    KANSAS CITY -6.5 -110 1pt

    For me betting an NFL spread over 3 is like walking down the deep end of a swimming pool when you cant swim, as the water goes over my tits I become anxious. So its a rare foray for me but having won about 8 pts pre-season added to the 3 here, I feel confident on a week where most of the skinny games have plenty of issues.


    Although I dont normally bet longer spreads I do scan over my favoured stats ( DVOA, points per drive, drive success rate the main ones) to see how these teams are standing and as we all know, things rarely are what they seem. One of these is The Chiefs who have a very peculiar set of stats through 5 weeks. Their 22% turnover rate on drives beats a 10 year high which averages about 11.5% so a massive return to the mean can be expected at some point.

    That point could be this weeks game against WTF who offer Kansas a chance to get back on track. Even with such a turnover rate, The Chiefs are number 1 in DSR, Yards per drive and time of possession per drive, not to mention No1 in points per drive. WTF defense has done nothing so far to even hope to keep up with those stats and giving up a line of scrimmage start average on the 32 only adds to the mix.

    Obviously The Chiefs D is a mess but not only do I think WTF are not in a position to take full advantage but a clean game by the Offense will give the D plenty of support. In fact if Kansas play a reasonable game WTF will have 10 drives at most to reply and given the stats, that equates to 27pts best case scenario. 31-24 sounds fair
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  9. #9  
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    Ballbag.......well done YTD buddy.......BOL with your action this week ......indy
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    JACKSONVILLE M/L +144 1 pt

    One of the biggest killers of bettors is increasing stakes or bets. It should be a cardinal sin to have extra bets when losing, however when ahead even by my 3pts its worth taking a few shots. My staking for any sport always starts at level then carry on at 1.25% of bank on main bets, this bet is would only be played because of having a profit. So to show that you can look at other situations rather than sheer stats here is a great example. Both teams have been desperate this year but only Miami have an excuse of a major QB loss, Jacksonville have no excuse except being a bad team. Its a fallacy to think that when that QB comes back all will be fine, usually the reality is too much dependent on one player while that QB will be rustier than pre season.

    Besides those thoughts I feel the Jags will be the most to benefit from getting away from the US media, relax and for once play loose. In these circumstances were the hunch can be right or wrong I think betting the M/L maximises any profits over time. This is a big concern in winning, never give up solid thinking because of short term results, keep stakes to 1.25 of bank and either you make money or move on to another sport.
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  11. #11  
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    Full house this week

    YTD 8-1 +7.55 pts
    parlay 1-2 +0.50 pts
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  12. #12  
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    scrub the parlay, it seems it wasnt posted
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  13. #13  
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    Tea bagging the bookie
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  14. #14  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exploited17 View Post
    Tea bagging the bookie
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