Sunday Service Play Thread 11/08/2020

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Let's go Brandon!
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HITMAN | NFL Side - Thursday, Nov 5 2020 8:20PM
301 GBP -2.5(-110) Westgate vs 302 SFX double-dime bet

Analysis: I anticipate this line moving and wanted to get it out now.


I fully expect Mullens to start this game, and if that's the case, I make this game GB -4.


Green Bay is 4-0 ATS off a loss under Lafleur, with a +10.1 ATS margin, and has double revenge off of last years embarrassing two losses, so there's no way the far superior team (Green Bay) will be taking San Fran lightly (which is often the concern for road favorites)
 

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Warren sharp

467 Las Vegas Raiders Over 52.5 (1 unit)
451 Seattle Seahawks Over 51 -115 (1 unit)
 

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Tony Finn

E% Seahawks -2.5 up to -4 against the bills
 

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HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Nov 8 2020 8:20PM
473 NOS 5.5(-110) William Hill vs 474 TAM double-dime bet

Analysis: With Manny Sanders and Michael Thomas practicing, the Saints appear to be getting healthier at wide receiver, while Tampa is on a short week and still has WR Godwin questionable for this game.


I have the Bucs rated as the better team, but I only make the game Bucs -3.5. The Saints are the NFL's third best road team ATS since 2017, going 18-9 ATS with a 5.2 PPG cover margin.


The price to bet on Tampa is at a premium right now, while the Saints stock seems to be at a season low despite the team getting healthier.


 

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HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Nov 8 2020 1:00PM
465 NYG 3.0(+100) Westgate vs 466 WAS double-dime bet

Analysis: I have these two teams rated equal, and with HFA being worth 1-1.5, clear value on the Giants getting a field goal.


Washington theoretically has the rest advantage, as they are off a bye and the Giants played on Monday Night, but that hasn’t been much of an advantage in recent memory. Since 2003, teams in the Giants situation are 25-10-1 ATS.
 

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Warren Sharp

Add: 459 Baltimore Ravens Over 45 -115 (0.75 units)
___
467 Las Vegas Raiders Over 52.5 (1 unit)
451 Seattle Seahawks Over 51 -115 (1 unit)

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HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Nov 8 2020 1:00PM
463 HOU -0.5(-120) Bookmaker vs 464 JAC double-dime bet

Analysis: 2* 6 PT TEASER: Houston -0.5/ New England -1 -120 (Consensus)


This is going to be considered the square teaser of the week, but we get the opportunity to fade one historically bad team, and another team that was projected to be historically bad coming into the year, and very well might be with rookie quarterback Jake Luton at the helm.


I get a lot of Ben Dinucci vibes with Jake Luton. Luton is a quarterback totally unprepared to play in the NFL who got limited reps in the offseason to due the pandemic. There's no possible way he's ready to step into the NFL and be a starting quarterback in the NFL, let alone be a capable starter for one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL. Luton was below average for draft prospects in completion %, yards per attempt, completion % vs pressure, and mobility. Jacksonville very well might have begun the tank for Lawrence strategy that we expected them to have coming into the season.


Sam Darnold appears to not be 100% healthy, and this Patriots team has had his number throughout his career. Darnold has a pathetic 4.2 YPA in his career against the Patriots. An Adam Gase led offense against a Bill Belichick led defense is about as big of a coaching mismatch as you can possibly ask for. The Patriots are not even close to the Patriots of old, but it hasn't gotten to the point where they should struggle against a Jets team that has lost all seven of their games this season by 8 points or more.


Both teams we are taking did not sell off players at the deadline, while the Jags and Jets seem prepared to make the organizational strategy of preparing for next years draft.
 

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Leave one: Pregame King Creole Sports NFL B) OVER 53 LV at LAC . Request one : King Creole Sports CFB B) Over of the day in Early Kicks.​










 

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Leave one: King Creole's Top NL Play OVER 55 Seattle at Bills. Request one: Anyone have Marc Lawrence A) NFL Perfect Play System Of The Year?
 

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Essler C* TOM

Saints Under 52
 

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Doc sports

nfl

F-chargers-pk
D-arizona-4.5
C-giants+2.5
 

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Vernon Croy

H* NFL GOTY SUNDAY 1PM!

Hou -7
 

sdf

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i can get MTI if a few people want to pitch in $10 to help out.
 

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Leave One: King Creole Sports C) Under Ho / Jack Ask one: Marc L NFL A) NFL Perfect Play System Game Of the Year!
 

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