Thursday 11/05/2020 Comps/Bonus Plays,Trends, Betting Info, Etc

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Good luck! rxb@ll
 

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301GREEN BAY -302 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) against teams who force 0.75 or less turnovers/game on the season since 1992.
 

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, November 5

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GREEN BAY (5 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 4) - 11/5/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 202-148 ATS (+39.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

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NFL

Week 9

Trend Report

Thursday, November 5

Green Bay @ San Francisco
Green Bay
Green Bay is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
Green Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
San Francisco
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
 

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NFL

Week 9

Packers (5-2) @ San Francisco (4-4)
— Green Bay lost two of last three games, after a 4-0 start.
— Packers scored 30+ points in their wins; 10-22 points in losses.
— Green Bay converted 42-85 third down plays (49.4%)
— Packers are 7-8 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite.
— Last four Green Bay games stayed under the total.

— Mullens gets start at QB, replacing injured Garoppolo (ankle).
— 49ers allowed 16 or fewer points in their wins, 24-25-43-37 in their losses.
— 49ers lost three of their four home games SU.
— Three of their four home games stayed under the total.
— 49ers are 8-10 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog.

— 49ers won six of last eight series games; they beat Green Bay 37-20 in LY’s playoffs.
— Packers lost four of last five visits here; they lost 37-8/37-20 here LY.
 

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49ers’ quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to be sidelined a minimum of six weeks after he sprained his ankle Sunday. Nick Mullens is expected to replace Garoppolo under center for Thursday’s game with Green Bay.
 

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Tech Trends - Week 9
Bruce Marshall

Week 9 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 29 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Nov. 5

GREEN BAY at SAN FRANCISCO
Niners destroyed Pack in both meetings at Levi’s last season (total score 74-28).
Pack 5-2 vs. line TY, Niners only 1-3 vs. line at home.

Tech Edge: Slight to 49ers, based on recent series trends.
 

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Betting Recap - Week 8
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

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The largest underdogs to win straight up

Bengals (+7, ML +260) vs. Titans, 31-20
Vikings (+6, ML +220) at Packers, 28-22
Steelers (+4, ML +175) at Ravens, 28-24
Dolphins (+3.5, ML +155) vs. Rams, 28-17
Broncos (+3, ML +130) vs. Chargers, 31-30

The largest favorites to cover

Chiefs (-19.5) vs. Jets, 35-9
Eagles (-10) vs. Cowboys, 23-9
Colts (-3.5) at Lions, 41-21

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Los Angeles Chargers-Denver Broncos AFC West rivalry has had some amazing finishes over the years. The first installment of this season's series surely didn't disappoint...unless you were holding a Chargers (-3) ticket or a moneyline wager.

QB Justin Herbert and the Chargers fired out to a 24-3 lead midway through the third quarter before Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay galloped for a 55-yard touchdown run to slice the lead to 24-10. Still, anyone backing the Bolts, was feeling pretty good. That Lindsay TD certainly changed the day almost immediately for 'under' (44.5) bettors. It got much worse for the latter - quick.

In the fourth quarter, the Broncos sliced the lead to 24-17 with a nine-yard touchdown pass from QB Drew Lock to TE Albert Okwuegbunam. The Chargers answered back with a field goal with 7:57 to go, making it 27-17. Under bettors couldn't allow another point, but that was quickly dashed just 27 seconds later when Lock hit WR DaeSean Hamilton for a 40-yard scoring strike. Suddenly, Bolts side bettors were feeling the pinch, too. PK Michael Badgley booted a 33-yard field with 2:30 left in regulation to give Chargers side bettors hope. However, rookie WR KJ Hamler reeled in a 1-yard scoring strike from Lock with zeroes on the clock, and the extra point won it for Denver, 31-30. The only time Denver had been ahead was 3-0. Moneyline bettors and side bettors are feeling awfully sick after this one.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The San Francisco 49ers-Seattle Seahawks game was well decided by the end of the third quarter. The Seahawks (-1) were leading 27-7 after 45 minutes, and it appeared side bettors were going to cruise to a winning ticket. The Seahawks added a field goal to go up 30-7 with 14:07 to go in the fourth quarter. However, a pair of touchdowns cut the lead to 30-20 with 4:16 left in regulation. RB DeeJay Dallas punched in a 1-yard touchdown to make it 37-20, putting side bettors minds at ease. However, that touchdown ended up pushing the total 'over' (54.5). The game ended up with a total of 64 points, but there was 30 total points in the final 14:07.

Total Recall

The lowest totals on the board on the Sunday slate were the New England Patriots-Buffalo Bills (41) and the New Orleans Saints-Chicago Bears (41) contests.

The Patriots-Bills game had a total of just 13 points on the board at halftime, and the 'under' was easily trending after 30 minutes. There were a total of just 20 points on the board until a touchdown and two-point conversion by the Pats with 3:03 to go in the third quarter to make it 14-14. A pair of two-yard touchdown runs by each of the quarterbacks made it a 21-21 game, and barring overtime, and a scoreless one at that, the 'over' was in the bag. And a PK Tyler Bass 28-yard field goal with 4:06 left in regulation gave the home side the 24-21 win. No overtime needed.

The Saints-Bears matchup was a field goal fest through 45 minutes. We had just two total touchdowns on the board with five field goals through 45 minutes, as the Saints clinged to a 16-13 lead. 'Under' bettors were hanging on, with New Orleans leading 23-13 with just under four minutes to go. But QB Nick Foles hit WR Darnell Mooney on a 3-yard scoring strike to make it 23-20. That was all total bettors needed to see.

The highest number on the board was the 49ers-Seahawks game (54.5), and we touched on how that one ended up above. We also had three games with a total of 49. The Indianapolis Colts-Detroit Lions, New York Jets-Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans-Cincinnati Bengals saw the 'over' cash in two of those three outings. The Chiefs did their part to hit the 'over', scoring 35 points, but the Jets could muster just nine total points in the loss.

In the first two primetime games of Week 8, the under went 2-0, with the Monday night game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants pending. The Atlanta Falcons-Carolina Panthers (52) gave was on pace for an 'over' result, with 30 points on the board at half time. But we saw two field goals and a touchdown with a failed two-point conversion in the final 30 minutes, and that was all. The Dallas Cowboys-Philadelphia Eagles (43) Sunday night affair looked more like a preseason game. It was ugly. Third-string QB Ben DiNucci made his first NFL start in place of the injured QBs Dak Prescott and Andy Dalton, and the visitors actually held a 9-7 lead at halftime. It was all Philly in the final 30, scoring a touchdown, two-point conversion, a touchdown and missed two-point conversion and a safety, while the Cowboys were blanked. Philadelphia won it 23-9, and the 'over' was never threatened at any point.

So far this season the under is 16-9 (64.0%) across 25 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 9

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Packers are licking their wounds after a 28-22 at home against the Vikings, head coach Matt LaFleur's first loss in the NFC North Division since taking over before the 2019 season (8-1). Now, it's a quick turnaround for QB Aaron Rodgers and the boys, and they might be catching a break. While the 49ers had a spirited comeback in Seattle, it might have come with a cost. QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) limped to the locker room early in the fourth quarter, replaced by QB Nick Mullens, while the team also saw RB Tevin Coleman, WR Dante Pettis and TE George Kittle leave the game for good. It's uncertain how much the lopsided score at the time played in their leaving, whether it was a precaution with a lopsided score and quick turnaround, or if the injuries are serious. The Niners are a difficult bunch to figure, as they won as home 'dogs against the Rams in Week 7, but lost as home favorites against the Eagles and Dolphins in Weeks 4-5.They're 1-3 SU/ATS in four games at Levi's Stadium, including 0-3 ATS as a home favorite. The Packers are 3-1 SU/ATS in four games on the road this season.

New York Giants at Washington Football Team (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Giants picked up their only victory of the season in a 20-19 win over the Washington Football Team in Week 6 as two-point favorites, failing to cover. The 'under' hit in that one, and is 5-2 in seven games overall for Big Blue. For Washington, they had their most complete game of the season before the bye, roughing up the Dallas Cowboys by a 25-3 score in Week 7 as a one-point underdog. The 'under' hit in that one, too, and is a perfect 3-0 for Washington over the past three.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

The Raiders won 16-6 in the wind and occasional snow on the shores of Lake Erie in Cleveland, hitting a rare 'under' result. The Raiders were the only team in the AFC yet to see an under, going 5-0-1 prior to Sunday. It's uncertain what happened to the Chargers defense, but it's not good. After a 3-0 'under' run to start the season, with the offense averaging 17.3 PPG and the defense allowing 19.0 PPG, we have seen the offense score 31, 27, 39 and 30 across the past four, while allowing 38, 30, 29 and 31. It's like a tale of two seasons for the Chargers. Herbert and the offense is growing into a formidable force, but the defense suddenly doesn't feel it has to be perfect and has been way more giving.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Patriots head into this Monday night affair with a 2-5 SU record. That's shocking, as they are now 3 1/2 games back of the first-place Bills, who just edged them 24-21 in Week 8 in windy Buffalo. QB Cam Newton was a little better, but still not good enough, and now the heat will get turned up even more on his seat. Some fans are calling for QB Jarrett Stidham to get the starting nod for the MNF game, and what better place than facing the lowly Jets. On a positive note, the Patriots did cover for the first time since Sept. 28, snapping an 0-3 ATS skid. And the 'over' result against the Bills also pumped the brakes on a 3-0 'under' run. The winless Jets were 19.5-point underdogs on the road against the Chiefs, but they hung in there, down just 21-9 at halftime, and 28-9 after three quarters. But they were unable to hang on for the cover. The 'under' did connect for the fourth straight game for Gang Green, as they have scored 10, 0, 10 and 9 across the past four games, or an average of 7.3 PPG.
 

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NFL odds Week 9: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Drew Brees and the Saints barely escaped Chicago with a 26-23 overtime victory against the Bears. Next up for New Orleans is a trip to Tampa Bay, where The SuperBook has the Buccaneers -4.5.

NFL Week 8 is just about in the rearview mirror, with NFL Week 9 odds on the betting board and already getting some action. The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers collide under the Thursday night lights, and the Sunday nighter pits the New Orleans Saints against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 9 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 9 odds

These are the current NFL Week 9 odds, as of November 1.

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Teams on bye: Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals

Packers at 49ers odds
Opening line
49ers +2.5, Over/Under 50.5

Why the line moved
"We opened Packers -2.5 and are still there," Murray said Sunday night. "The public will be all over the Packers here. They’ll fall in love with the cheap road favorite, especially after seeing the 49ers get rolled today." Indeed, San Francisco went to Seattle as a 1-point underdog and trailed 30-7 in the fourth quarter, though the Niners rallied to make it respectable in a 37-27 loss.
 

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Hot & Not Report - Week 9
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 9 Betting Angles

Fading NFL teams before a Thursday Night Football game is the gift that just keeps on giving, as both the Packers and 49ers fell rather easily this past week to the Vikings and Seahawks respectively.

Fading these teams pre-TNF on the outright money line is now 12-2 SU (85.7%) thanks to those wins by Minnesota and Seattle, and next up this week it calls for outright plays against the Colts and Titans, who are slated for a TNF game in Week 10.

And one more thing before I forget to comment on the Seahawks, as they benefited from being on the right side of that angle thanks to their defense actually deciding to play some defense for the first three quarters of that win.

Quarterback Russell Wilson continues to be the favorite for the MVP award as he and wide receiver DK Metcalf continue to carry this team, Seattle fans might want to tell Metcalf he might not want to campaign so hard for Wilson to win the league's Most Valuable Player award this season.

The NFL has not seen a league MVP go on to win the Super Bowl in their MVP season this century (20 years), as the last to do it was Kurt Warner with the Rams in 1999. Individual awards are always nice, but the goal every year is to hoist that Lombardi Trophy and working against that type of history is quite the uphill climb.

(Also, if you do believe Wilson will win the MVP this year, Seattle futures tickets may not be the best idea right now).

This week the hot and cold streaks shift to non-conference affairs as there are six of them on tap in Week 9 and there are some interesting runs going on in these AFC/NFC games. Heck, we've even got the Seattle Seahawks involved in one of them as well.

Let's get to it:

Who's Hot

Since the start of Week 4, road teams in non-conference games are 13-4 SU and 13-3-1 ATS

This is something I sat on last week as there were only two non-conference games on the slate, and road teams ended up going 1-1 SU and ATS with the Colts winning in Detroit, and the Rams losing in Miami.

But Week 7 saw all three road teams in non-conference games get the SU and ATS money (Green Bay over Houston, Tampa over Las Vegas, and SF over New England) as it just continued on down the path it had started weeks prior.

It is interesting to note that the LA Chargers have had a unique role in this non-conference run, as they covered the spread in both of their opportunities – vs Tampa Bay and New Orleans – and had they not done Chargers things in those games, the SU record could actually be much better for road teams here.

Who Do You Follow?

Broncos
Seahawks
Panthers
Bears
Dolphins
Steelers

Week 9 brings us the following non-conference games: Denver (+4) at Atlanta, Seattle (-2.5) at Buffalo, Carolina (+12) at Kansas City, Chicago (+6) at Tennessee, Miami (+4.5) at Arizona, and Pittsburgh (no line) at Dallas.

Among those contests are some interesting betting opportunities, as once again in these Hot/Not pieces we've found yet another reason to fade the Dallas Cowboys. I got up on Monday morning actually a little baffled at all the negative reaction to that Cowboys/Eagles game on SNF for how bad it was.

It wasn't the fact that the game turned out to be awful that was baffling, it was the fact that everyone complaining about it being a garbage dump of a game couldn't see it coming beforehand. I tried to warn you all about it in my SNF preview, but to each his own.

Who knows how high that line for the Steelers – the league's last remaining unbeaten – gets against the Cowboys this week, but if bettors needed yet another reason to fade what's going on in Jerry World, this would be it.

Having Carolina and Atlanta involved in two non-conference games off their TNF game is interesting as well given they do have the extra rest angle in their favor. Following this run would suggest backing the Panthers and going against the Falcons, but in both cases it's always better to do a lot more digging before you settle in on any play.

In terms of favorites/underdogs, there isn't as big of a discrepancy as the road/home splits for these recent non-conference games, as underdogs are 9-7-1 ATS against the closing line in that span.

Just another thing to keep in mind if there is some hesitance to back the Seahawks or Steelers simply because they are the favorites.

Who's Not

Expecting lower point totals in these non-conference games; Since the start of Week 4, non-conference games have averaged 55.29 points per game

Outlining things this way helps differentiate from the overall O/U record which sits at 10-7 O/U for the 17 non-conference games during this time.

Some of those 'unders' did stay low by the hook or a single point though, which makes the fact that the average point total in these games much more actionable.

Furthermore, only two of those 17 games finished with less than 45 total points scored, as they were the Colts/Bears game (30 total points) and Cardinals/Jets game (40 total points) in recent weeks.

The offenses the Jets and Bears possess right now are so bad that taking any 'over' with them is tough to begin with.

Chicago is involved again in this scenario this week, but they do face a Titans team that gives up 61.86% 3rd down conversion rate this year (a league worst this year and one of the worst numbers we've seen in decades), so who knows, maybe Chicago's offense ends up looking competent this week.

But with 15 of the 17 recent AFC/NFC games seeing at least 45 combined points, and 11 of the 17 games finishing with at least 54 points, it's this average of 55.29 points per game that could be critical this week.

Not one total in the five non-conference games with a line posted have a total currently listed higher than 53.5 (Seattle/Buffalo), and prior to the Miami/Arizona game coming off the board here, three of the five games had posted totals still in the 40's.

Now pairing up these two runs (road teams + high scoring games) to look at going 'over' the team totals of these road squads is something I didn't look at specifically, but it goes to reason that going that route would make a lot of sense.

So if you are looking for 'overs' in Week 9, in any form, it would make some sense to start with these non-conference games first to see what else you can find.

Play the Over Where?

Denver-Atlanta (50)
Seattle-Buffalo (54.5)
Carolina-Kansas City (52.5)
Chicago-Tennessee (46.5)
Miami-Arizona (48)
Pittsburgh-Dallas (NA)
 

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NFL Week 9 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

For the second time this season, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will be sidelined by a high ankle sprain, missing Thursday's home game against the Packers and perhaps several more.

NFL Week 8 is in the books, NFL Week 9 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury news, which is actually becoming far too typical for the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers.

This week’s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for that information and more.

Week 9 Injuries

San Francisco 49ers: Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo aggravated a high ankle sprain in Sunday’s loss at Seattle and could be out several weeks. And tight end George Kittle broke a bone in his foot and is also out several weeks. That’s on top of running backs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. both on IR with ankle injuries, among other key banged-up players.

The SuperBook at Westgate opened San Fran +2.5 at home against Green Bay in the Thursday night game. But the matchup was taken off the board Monday morning and will go back up once there’s more clarity with both teams, as Green Bay has issues, too.

Green Bay Packers: Backup running back AJ Dillon, who played in Sunday’s home loss to Minnesota, tested positive for COVID-19 and is under the league’s COVID protocol. The Dillon news is what first prompted The SuperBook to take the Packers-Niners game off the board, and then came the aforementioned San Francisco injury news. The game opened Packers -2.5, with a total of 50.5 that moved to 51 Monday morning, before the game was taken down.

Baltimore Ravens: Speaking of COVID, cornerback Marlon Humphrey tested positive Monday after playing in Sunday’s home loss to Pittsburgh. The SuperBook opened the Ravens -2.5 and quickly moved to -3 Sunday evening, while the total went from 45 to 44.5. But this game also came off the board Monday, while the book awaited clarity on Baltimore’s situation.

Arizona Cardinals: The Cards had a bye in Week 8, and over the weekend, linebacker Devon Kennard and cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. tested positive for COVID. So yet another game came off the board Monday at The SuperBook, Arizona’s Sunday matchup against visiting Miami. Prior to that decision, the game opened Cardinals -5.5 and moved to -4.5, while the total was stable at 48.

Los Angeles Chargers: Defensive end Joey Bosa is in concussion protocol after getting injured in Sunday’s loss at Denver, so his status is uncertain for this week’s home game against the Raiders. The Chargers opened -3 and quickly dropped to -1.5, though SuperBook executive director John Murray said that had much more to do with Los Angeles’ fourth-quarter collapse in the loss to Denver.

Detroit Lions: Wideout Kenny Golladay (hip) is expected to miss Sunday’s game at Minnesota. The Lions opened +3.5 and moved to +4 Monday at The SuperBook.


Week 9 Weather

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: The early forecast calls for a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms Sunday in Jacksonville, with winds of 10-20 mph. For the moment, The SuperBook’s total is stable at 51.5.

Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs: Five days out, the Kansas City forecast calls for a slight chance of rain, but more noteworthy, winds of 15-25 mph. The total, however, is already up to 52.5 from the opener of 51, so keep an eye on this game as the forecast develops.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: There’s a 50/50 shot for rain Sunday in Tampa, Fla., along with winds of 10-20 mph, according to the early-week forecast.
 

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305WYOMING -306 COLORADO ST
WYOMING is 25-12 ATS (11.8 Units) after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.

307UTAH ST -308 NEVADA
UTAH ST is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) after going over the total in the last 3 seasons.
 

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, November 5

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WYOMING (1 - 1) at COLORADO ST (0 - 1) - 11/5/2020, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WYOMING is 2-0 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
WYOMING is 2-0 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH ST (0 - 2) at NEVADA (2 - 0) - 11/5/2020, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH ST is 1-0 against the spread versus NEVADA over the last 3 seasons
UTAH ST is 1-0 straight up against NEVADA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

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NCAAF

Week 10

Trend Report

Thursday, November 5

Utah State @ Nevada
Utah State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah State's last 5 games
Utah State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Nevada
Nevada
Nevada is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Nevada is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Utah State

Wyoming @ Colorado State
Wyoming
Wyoming is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Colorado State
Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado State
Colorado State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado State's last 7 games at home
 

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NCAAF

Week 10

Thursday’s games

Wyoming (1-1) @ Colorado State (0-1)
— Wyoming split its two games, losing 37-34 in OT at Nevada.
— Cowboys scored 34-31 points in their first two games.
— Wyoming has 7 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Cowboys have 146 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wyoming has a freshman QB with two career starts.
— Last two years, Cowboys are 2-0 ATS as a road favorite.

— Colorado State lost its season opener 38-17 in Fresno last week.
— Rams gave up 348 passing yards last week.
— State has 7 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Rams have 50 returning starts on the offensive line.
— CSU has a senior QB with 9 career starts.
— Since 2016, Rams are 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.

— Wyoming won its last four games with Colorado State.
— Cowboys won 34-21/38-17 in their last two visits to Fort Collins.

Utah State (0-2) @ Nevada (2-0)
— Utah State lost its first two games, giving up 42-38 points.
— Aggies were outgained 1,020-418 in those games.
— Utah State has 8 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Rams have 81 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Utah State has a junior QB who threw 168 passes for Utah two years ago.
— Last two years, Aggies are 4-3 ATS as a road underdog.

— Nevada won its first two games, scoring 37 points in both games.
— Wolf Pack threw for 770 yards in those games.
— Nevada has 10 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Wolf Pack has 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Nevada has a soph QB with 12 career starts.
— Under Norvell, Wolf Pack is 6-5 ATS as a home favorite.

— Home side won last three series games.
— Utah State (-21) beat Nevada 36-10 at home LY.
— Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in last eight series games.
 

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Tech Trends - Week 10
Bruce Marshall

Week 10 of the College Football season kicks off on Wednesday, Nov. 4 with MACtion and concludes on Saturday Nov. 7.

We've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Nov. 5

WYOMING at COLORADO STATE (CBSSN, 9:00 p.m.)
Border war!
Advantage Wyoming, as Bohl has won and covered last four meetings.
Cowboys on 8-2 spread run in Laramie after Hawaii win.

Tech Edge: Wyoming, based on team and series trends.

UTAH STATE at NEVADA (FS1, 7:00 p.m.)
Utags sagging, only 4-8 last 12 vs. line since early 2019.
Wolf Pack on 6-2 spread run last 8 vs. MW at Reno.

Tech Edge: Nevada, based on recent trends.
 

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Home favorites/underdogs in college football conferences:

AAC— 5-9-1 home favorites, 4-4 home underdogs

ACC— 11-10-1 HF, 10-5 HU

Big 14— 3-3 HF, 3-3 HU

Big X— 9-5-1 HF, 4-7 HU

C-USA— 2-12 HF, 3-3 HU

Mountain West— 4-1 HF, 3-3 HU

SEC— 9-8 HF, 10-8 HU

Sun Belt— 7-4 HF, 5-2 HU
 

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Packers vs. 49ers Week 9 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Week 9 starts with a NFC Championship rematch game between the Packers and the 49ers, and after getting spanked by San Francisco twice last year, including that NFC title game, the Packers have probably had their eyes on this game for some time now.

Positive memories might not be immediately there for the Packers when they see the Niners sharing the field for them, but there are quite a few things that have broken in Green Bay's favor this week.

Nobody likes to see anyone get hurt, but San Francisco losing QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle has to be viewed as good news for Packers fans, and now with the 49ers having virus issues and shutting down their facility on Wednesday, practice and prep time 24 hours before the game on the San Fran side of things takes a real hit.

Now, uncertainty about when they'll play the game could weigh on the Green Bay side of things too, but after an awful showing on Sunday against Minnesota – especially in trying to stop the run – can the Packers bounce back and take advantage of all these little edges that are seemingly adding up in their favor?

Or will a depleted 49ers team on offense lean even heavier on their rushing attack and find just as much success as the Vikings did running all over Green Bay?

Betting Resources

Week 9 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, California
Date: Thursday, Nov. 5, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: FOX/NFL Network

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers look to avenge a pair of losses to the 49ers from last season. (AP)

Packers-49ers Betting Odds

Spread: Green Bay -5
Money-Line: Green Bay -240, San Francisco +200
Total: 50

2020 Betting Stats

Green Bay

Overall: 5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Road: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 31.3 (Rank 3)
Defense PPG: 26.7 (Rank 20)
Offense YPG: 394.6 (Rank 9)
Defense YPG: 346.6 (Rank 11)

San Francisco

Overall: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Home: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 1-3 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.0 (Rank 15)
Defense PPG: 21.6 (Rank 10)
Offense YPG: 378.6 (Rank 12)
Defense YPG: 314.6 (Rank 6)

Handicapping the Total

Even before the COVID news dropped in San Francisco on Wednesday, the Niners injury news was still known, and I'm not sure how either side of this total could have been confidently bet.

The 'under' would be the side to look at if you believe the Niners would employ a gameplan that's heavily run-based to keep Rodgers and company off the field, while exploiting that huge weakness in Green Bay's defense right now.

A constant running clock is always a friend to 'under' bettors, and TNF games tend to skew themselves to the low side of the total to begin with.

But to just assume that the Packers run defense will get gashed again as they did vs Minnesota is flawed thinking in it's own right. Think of it from the Packers point of view in that a self scouting session would quickly reveal how poor they've been against the run this year, and knowing the injury situation San Fran has, expecting to face plenty of runs is a pretty reasonable expectation for Green Bay.

That defense could even come up with a gameplan to force QB Nick Mullens to beat them with his arm, and how successful either scenario is for Green Bay is still questionable.

Not to mention, Rodgers could just go off and have a 4 TD game or something like that in the possessions he does get, instantly ruining any 'under' play.

For those looking at the 'over' here, you've got to worry about similar things, as it's just as flawed to strongly believe the Packers defense will figure out how to slow down the opposing running game even when they know it's coming, and if SF is successful at winning the time of possession and bleeding the clock out, even late magic from Aaron Rdogers might not be enough to save an 'over' ticket.

And at the same time, San Fran's defense understands that they are going to have to be the ones to carry the workload here in the coming weeks with the offensive injury situation their team is experiencing.

It's that 49ers defense that DOES HAVE plenty of positive memories from the two meetings a year ago after setting up shop in the Packers backfield on both occasions, and should it be them that has a great game on TNF, this game probably ends up topping out somewhere in the mid-40's.

So it was an easy pass on the total before the 49ers virus issues, and an even easier one now.

Head-to-Head History

Jan. 19, 2020 - San Francisco 37 vs. Green Bay 20, 49ers -8, Over 46.5
Nov. 24, 2019 - San Francisco 37 vs. Green Bay 8, 49ers -3, Under 48
Oct. 15, 2018 - Green Bay 33 vs. San Francisco 30, 49ers +9.5, Over 46.5

Handicapping the Side

The side was the angle I had already been eyeing before Wednesday's news, and it was going to be the Packers or nothing. Now, even with it going to be a highly popular play on a very public team, it's still the Packers or nothing on the spread for me.

Part of that has to do with Green Bay's ability to bounce back of a loss – especially one where they looked as lousy as they did vs Minnesota – as they are on a 6-0 ATS run when coming off an outright loss dating back to late in the 2018-19 season. That scenario was already a strong “play on” spot for the Packers and it's getting hard to ignore.

Then you've got the whole revenge angle from the NFC Championship loss, as well as the even uglier loss in the regular season to this Niners team a year ago. That can't be overlooked either, and in hindsight, the idea that Green Bay was so flat and out of sync against Minnesota last week, could be somewhat attributed to looking ahead to this game.

Remember, they didn't know at the time that Garoppolo or Kittle wouldn't be playing, and getting one over on the team that ended their season last year is a professional pride thing that's got to be considered with all professional athletes.

And then there is the COVID situation now with the Niners, who may or not see more key players affected. That's not the only negative though, as now pre-game walkthroughs and practice time 24 hours before the game have now been squashed, and that's pretty important for a team that's working in replacements at key positions that would prefer to get all the practice snaps in that they can.

Add it all up and this is one situation where siding with the likely consensus on the Packers is really the only way I believe you can confidently put your money on in this game.

Who knows, the fact that Green Bay was such a huge public play last week and burned everyone may have some of those same bettors a little hesitant to join the chalk fest with the Packers here, especially after how bad they looked against Minnesota.

It's still Green Bay so it probably won't dissuade a large number of bettors, but laying the points with the visitors here makes too much sense on multiple fronts.

Key Injuries

Green Bay

OT David Bakhtiari: Chest - Questionable
S Raven Greene: Oblique - Questionable
RB Aaron Jones: Calf - Questionable
CB Kevin King: Quadriceps - Out
S Will Redmond: Shoulder - Out
S Vernon Scott: Shoulder - Out
OT Rick Wagner: Knee - Questionable

San Francisco

WR Deebo Samuel: Quarantine/COVID - Out
OT Trent Williams: Quarantine/COVID - Out
WR Brandon Aiyuk: Quarantine/COVID - Out
RB Tevin Coleman: Knee - Out
LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles: Hamstring - Out
QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Ankle - Out
WR Richie James: Ankle - Questionable
TE George Kittle: Foot - Out
WR Deebo Samuel: Hamstring - Out
S Jaquiski Tartt: Groin - Questionable

2020 Thursday Night Football (TNF) Betting Results

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS)

Home-Away: 4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 3-4 SU, 1-6 ATS
Over-Under: 3-4
 

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