NCAAF
Long Sheet
Friday, November 6
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MIAMI (5 - 1) at NC STATE (4 - 2) - 11/6/2020, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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SAN JOSE ST (2 - 0) at SAN DIEGO ST (2 - 0) - 11/6/2020, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST is 2-0 straight up against SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BYU (7 - 0) at BOISE ST (2 - 0) - 11/6/2020, 9:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 156-113 ATS (+31.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 156-113 ATS (+31.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
BOISE ST is 98-67 ATS (+24.3 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 89-56 ATS (+27.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 96-69 ATS (+20.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
BYU is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 2-0 against the spread versus BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 1-1 straight up against BYU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Long Sheet
Friday, November 6
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MIAMI (5 - 1) at NC STATE (4 - 2) - 11/6/2020, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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SAN JOSE ST (2 - 0) at SAN DIEGO ST (2 - 0) - 11/6/2020, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST is 2-0 straight up against SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BYU (7 - 0) at BOISE ST (2 - 0) - 11/6/2020, 9:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 156-113 ATS (+31.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 156-113 ATS (+31.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
BOISE ST is 98-67 ATS (+24.3 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 89-56 ATS (+27.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 96-69 ATS (+20.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
BYU is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 2-0 against the spread versus BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 1-1 straight up against BYU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NCAAF
Week 10
Trend Report
Friday, November 6
Miami-FL @ North Carolina State
Miami-FL
Miami-FL is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Miami-FL's last 22 games on the road
North Carolina State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of North Carolina State's last 6 games
North Carolina State is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games at home
San Jose State @ San Diego State
San Jose State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Jose State's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State's last 6 games when playing San Diego State
San Diego State
San Diego State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Jose State
San Diego State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Jose State
Brigham Young @ Boise State
Brigham Young
Brigham Young is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Brigham Young's last 7 games on the road
Boise State
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Brigham Young
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Week 10
Trend Report
Friday, November 6
Miami-FL @ North Carolina State
Miami-FL
Miami-FL is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Miami-FL's last 22 games on the road
North Carolina State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of North Carolina State's last 6 games
North Carolina State is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games at home
San Jose State @ San Diego State
San Jose State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Jose State's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State's last 6 games when playing San Diego State
San Diego State
San Diego State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Jose State
San Diego State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Jose State
Brigham Young @ Boise State
Brigham Young
Brigham Young is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Brigham Young's last 7 games on the road
Boise State
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Brigham Young
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
NCAAF
Week 10
Friday’s games
Miami (5-1) @ NC State (4-2)
— Miami is 5-1, allowing 19 or fewer points in four of their five wins.
— Hurricanes split two road games, allowing 34-42 points.
— Miami has 8 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Miami has 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Hurricanes’ senior QB has started 25 games.
— Miami is 5-6 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite.
— NC State is 4-2, giving up 45-42 points in their two losses.
— Wolfpack beat Wake Forest/Duke at home, scoring 45-31 points.
— Wolfpack has 10 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— State has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wolfpack has injury issues at QB; they’ve already used three. A freshman finished up their game in Chapel Hill LW.
— Since 2013, State is 7-5 ATS as a home underdog.
— Miami (-2.5) won 27-13 at NC State in last series games, four years ago.
San Jose State (2-0) @ San Diego State (2-0)
— San Jose won its first two games, by 11-17 points.
— First road game for Spartans, who threw for 481 yards LW.
— Spartans have 6 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— San Jose has 72 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Spartans have a senior QB with 12 career starts- he used to play at Arkansas.
— Last 2+ years, San Jose is 8-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— San Diego State won its first two MW games by a combined 72-13.
— Aztecs had 694 rushing yards in those two games.
— San Diego State has 6 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Aztecs have 60 returning starts on the offensive line.
— San Diego State has a soph QB with eight starts.
— Since 2017, Aztecs are 3-12 ATS as a home favorite.
— San Diego State won last five series games (27-17/16-13 last two).
— Spartans 16-13/42-3 in their last two visits to San Diego.
BYU (7-0) @ Boise State (0-1)
— BYU is 7-0, winning six of its seven games by 17+ points.
— Cougars won 55-3/43-26 in their two road games (Navy/Houston)
— Cougars have 8 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— BYU has 110 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cougars have a junior QB with 23 career starts.
— Since 2017, BYU is 2-7 ATS as a road favorite.
— Boise State won its first two games, 42-13/49-30
— Broncos allowed 415 YR against Air Force’s option attack LW.
— Boise has 5 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Broncos have 37 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Boise has a junior QB with two career starts; he is a USC transfer.
— Over last 11 years, Boise State is 1-0 ATS as a home underdog.
— Boise is 7-3 in last ten series games; they lost 28-25 (-7) at BYU last year.
— Cougars lost 21-16/28-27 in last two games on the blue turf.
— Underdogs covered four of last five series games.
Week 10
Friday’s games
Miami (5-1) @ NC State (4-2)
— Miami is 5-1, allowing 19 or fewer points in four of their five wins.
— Hurricanes split two road games, allowing 34-42 points.
— Miami has 8 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Miami has 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Hurricanes’ senior QB has started 25 games.
— Miami is 5-6 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite.
— NC State is 4-2, giving up 45-42 points in their two losses.
— Wolfpack beat Wake Forest/Duke at home, scoring 45-31 points.
— Wolfpack has 10 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— State has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wolfpack has injury issues at QB; they’ve already used three. A freshman finished up their game in Chapel Hill LW.
— Since 2013, State is 7-5 ATS as a home underdog.
— Miami (-2.5) won 27-13 at NC State in last series games, four years ago.
San Jose State (2-0) @ San Diego State (2-0)
— San Jose won its first two games, by 11-17 points.
— First road game for Spartans, who threw for 481 yards LW.
— Spartans have 6 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— San Jose has 72 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Spartans have a senior QB with 12 career starts- he used to play at Arkansas.
— Last 2+ years, San Jose is 8-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— San Diego State won its first two MW games by a combined 72-13.
— Aztecs had 694 rushing yards in those two games.
— San Diego State has 6 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Aztecs have 60 returning starts on the offensive line.
— San Diego State has a soph QB with eight starts.
— Since 2017, Aztecs are 3-12 ATS as a home favorite.
— San Diego State won last five series games (27-17/16-13 last two).
— Spartans 16-13/42-3 in their last two visits to San Diego.
BYU (7-0) @ Boise State (0-1)
— BYU is 7-0, winning six of its seven games by 17+ points.
— Cougars won 55-3/43-26 in their two road games (Navy/Houston)
— Cougars have 8 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— BYU has 110 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cougars have a junior QB with 23 career starts.
— Since 2017, BYU is 2-7 ATS as a road favorite.
— Boise State won its first two games, 42-13/49-30
— Broncos allowed 415 YR against Air Force’s option attack LW.
— Boise has 5 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Broncos have 37 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Boise has a junior QB with two career starts; he is a USC transfer.
— Over last 11 years, Boise State is 1-0 ATS as a home underdog.
— Boise is 7-3 in last ten series games; they lost 28-25 (-7) at BYU last year.
— Cougars lost 21-16/28-27 in last two games on the blue turf.
— Underdogs covered four of last five series games.
Tech Trends - Week 10
Bruce Marshall
Week 10 of the College Football season kicks off on Wednesday, Nov. 4 with MACtion and concludes on Saturday Nov. 7.
We've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups.
We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.
Friday, Nov. 6
MIAMI-FLA at NC STATE (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)
NC State has covered its first two in Raleigh this season and 5-1 “over” as well in 2020.
Canes only 1-4 vs. line last five as chalk away from home (though 1-0 in role this season).
Tech Edge: Slight to NCS and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
SAN JOSE STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE (CBSSN, 9:00 p.m.)
SJSU on 11-4-1 spread run since late 2018, 9-3 last 12 as dog.
Spartans however haven’t beaten SDSU outright since 2012.
Aztecs covered vs. feeble UNLV in opener but home chalk not a good role lately (5-12 since 2017).
Tech Edge: SJSU, based on team trends.
BYU at BOISE STATE (FS1, 9:45 p.m.)
Cougs 7-0 SU, 6-1 vs. line in 2020, won and covered first two on road.
BYU has covered 4 of last 5 series meetings.
Boise State now 8-3 last 11 vs. line at home after previous struggles on the blue carpet.
Tech Edge: Slight to BYU, based on series trends.
Bruce Marshall
Week 10 of the College Football season kicks off on Wednesday, Nov. 4 with MACtion and concludes on Saturday Nov. 7.
We've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups.
We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.
Friday, Nov. 6
MIAMI-FLA at NC STATE (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)
NC State has covered its first two in Raleigh this season and 5-1 “over” as well in 2020.
Canes only 1-4 vs. line last five as chalk away from home (though 1-0 in role this season).
Tech Edge: Slight to NCS and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
SAN JOSE STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE (CBSSN, 9:00 p.m.)
SJSU on 11-4-1 spread run since late 2018, 9-3 last 12 as dog.
Spartans however haven’t beaten SDSU outright since 2012.
Aztecs covered vs. feeble UNLV in opener but home chalk not a good role lately (5-12 since 2017).
Tech Edge: SJSU, based on team trends.
BYU at BOISE STATE (FS1, 9:45 p.m.)
Cougs 7-0 SU, 6-1 vs. line in 2020, won and covered first two on road.
BYU has covered 4 of last 5 series meetings.
Boise State now 8-3 last 11 vs. line at home after previous struggles on the blue carpet.
Tech Edge: Slight to BYU, based on series trends.
College Football Odds Week 10: Opening lines and sharp money
Patrick Everson
With quarterback Trevor Lawrence out of the lineup and in COVID protocol, running back Travis Etienne will be key for No. 1 Clemson this week at No. 4 Notre Dame. FanDuel has the Tigers 5.5-point favorites.
College football odds for Week 10 are on the betting board and getting action, with a couple of gems on this week's schedule. No. 1 Clemson, minus star quarterback Trevor Lawrence, travels to No. 4 Notre Dame, while No. 8 Florida and No. 5 Georgia square off in their annual neutral-site showdown.
FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on college football Week 10 opening lines, early line movement, sharp money and public betting for this week's matchups.
College football Week 10 odds
These are the current College football Week 10 odds for the premier games on the schedule, as of November 2.
Matchup Time Spread Over/Under
(9) BYU at (23) Boise State 9:45 p.m. ET Friday BYU -2.5 59.5
Air Force at (22) Army 11:30 a.m. ET Saturday Army -4.5 40.5
Houston at (6) Cincinnati 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday Cincinnati -13.5 56.5
(25) Michigan at (13) Indiana Noon ET Saturday Michigan -2.5 51.5
Rutgers at (3) Ohio State 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday Ohio State -38 TBA
Arizona State at (20) USC Noon ET Saturday USC -11.5 58.5
Stanford at (14) Oregon 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday Oregon -10.5 52.5
(12) Oklahoma State at Kansas State 4 p.m. ET Saturday Kansas State +12.5 46.5
(8) Florida vs (5) Georgia 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday Georgia -4.5 53.5
(1) Clemson at (4) Notre Dame 7 p.m. ET Saturday Clemson -5.5 51.5
(9) BYU at (23) Boise State odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under 59.5
Why the line moved
This game opened pick 'em at FanDuel and moved to Brigham Young -2.5 Monday afternoon, with practically every early ticket and all the early dollars on the Cougars. The total dipped two points to 57.5, then returned to the opener of 59.5, with ticket count 9/1 on the Over and 72 percent of early cash on the Over, as well.
Air Force at (22) Army odds
Opening line
Army -6.5, Over/Under 41.5
Why the line moved
The Black Knights were already down two points at FanDuel, sitting as 4.5-point favorites Monday night on some interesting point-spread betting splits: ticket count is more than 2/1 Army, but money is almost dead even. The total is also down a point to 40.5, with 77 percent of bets and nearly all the money on the Under.
Houston at (6) Cincinnati Odds
Opening line
Cincinnati -10.5, Over/Under 58.5
Why the line moved
Cincinnati opened -10.5 at FanDuel and sped to -13.5 by Monday afternoon, but the betting splits are a bit wild. The Bearcats are attracting 95 percent of early tickets, but money is two-way, with 52 percent of early dollars on double-digit-dog Houston. The total is down to 56.5 from 58.5, with a 4/1 ticket count on the Under and almost all the early money on the Under.
(25) Michigan at (13) Indiana odds
Opening line
Michigan -3.5, Over/Under 55.5
Why the line moved
Michigan, coming off a stunning home loss to Michigan State, opened -3.5 at FanDuel and moved to -2.5. As of Monday night, 53 percent of bets and 68 percent of money were on the Wolverines. The total tumbled from 55.5 to 51.5, with 62 percent of tickets on the Over, but 74 percent of cash on the Under.
Rutgers at (3) Ohio State Odds
Opening line
Ohio State -38, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Ohio State opened a massive favorite at The SuperBook at Westgate, and there was no line movement on Monday. The Buckeyes are coming off a 38-25 victory at Penn State, while Rutgers fell to visiting Indiana 37-21.
Arizona State at (20) USC odds
Opening line
Southern California -9.5, Over/Under 59.5
Why the line moved
And hello to the Pac-12, which finally joins the college football scene on the first weekend of November. By Monday night, USC was already up to -11.5 at FanDuel in a game drawing two-way action, with 54 percent of bets on Arizona State and 55 percent of money on Southern Cal. The total ticked from 59.5 to 58.5, though 69 percent of bets and 60 percent of dollars were on the Over as of Monday night.
Stanford at (14) Oregon odds
Opening line
Oregon -9.5, Over/Under 53.5
Why the line moved
Staying in the Pac-12, FanDuel sped to Ducks -12 Sunday afternoon, but a volatile line was down to -10.5 by late Monday morning. Still, ticket count and money were both running 4/1 on Oregon. The total dipped from 53.5 to 52.5 Monday, with tickets split 50/50 but almost all the early money on the Under.
(12) Oklahoma State at Kansas State odds
Opening line
Oklahoma State -9.5, Over/Under 50.5
Why the line moved
The Cowboys bolted to -13.5 at FanDuel by early Monday afternoon, then receded a bit to -12.5. It's two-way action early, with 59 percent of tickets on Kansas State and 53 percent of money on Oklahoma State. The total first went up to 51.5, then plummeted to 46.5, with tickets more than 2/1 on the Over, but money 2/1 on the Under.
(8) Florida at (5) Georgia odds
Opening line
Georgia -4.5, Over/Under 52.5
Why the line moved
It's a neutral-site game in Jacksonville, Fla., for the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, the unofficial name of this rivalry. FanDuel opened the Bulldogs -4.5, and that number stuck through Monday night, while the total moved from 52.5 to 53.5, but betting splits were not yet available.
(1) Clemson at (4) Notre Dame odds
Opening line
Clemson -6.5, Over/Under 51.5
Why the line moved
FanDuel posted a look-ahead line for this game back on Oct. 24, with Clemson a 14.5-point road chalk. However, last week's news that Tigers stud QB Trevor Lawrence tested positive for COVID-19 led to that line coming off the board. On the subsequent news that Lawrence won't play this week, the line went up at Clemson -6.5 Sunday and fell to -5.5 Monday. The Tigers were landing 60 percent of bets/64 percent of money on the spread through Monday night. The total opened 51.5 and went to 52.5 before returning to the opener Monday, with 76 percent of bets on the Over, but 53 percent of early money on the Under.
5000 POSTS!!!!!
arty:
Patrick Everson
With quarterback Trevor Lawrence out of the lineup and in COVID protocol, running back Travis Etienne will be key for No. 1 Clemson this week at No. 4 Notre Dame. FanDuel has the Tigers 5.5-point favorites.
College football odds for Week 10 are on the betting board and getting action, with a couple of gems on this week's schedule. No. 1 Clemson, minus star quarterback Trevor Lawrence, travels to No. 4 Notre Dame, while No. 8 Florida and No. 5 Georgia square off in their annual neutral-site showdown.
FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on college football Week 10 opening lines, early line movement, sharp money and public betting for this week's matchups.
College football Week 10 odds
These are the current College football Week 10 odds for the premier games on the schedule, as of November 2.
Matchup Time Spread Over/Under
(9) BYU at (23) Boise State 9:45 p.m. ET Friday BYU -2.5 59.5
Air Force at (22) Army 11:30 a.m. ET Saturday Army -4.5 40.5
Houston at (6) Cincinnati 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday Cincinnati -13.5 56.5
(25) Michigan at (13) Indiana Noon ET Saturday Michigan -2.5 51.5
Rutgers at (3) Ohio State 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday Ohio State -38 TBA
Arizona State at (20) USC Noon ET Saturday USC -11.5 58.5
Stanford at (14) Oregon 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday Oregon -10.5 52.5
(12) Oklahoma State at Kansas State 4 p.m. ET Saturday Kansas State +12.5 46.5
(8) Florida vs (5) Georgia 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday Georgia -4.5 53.5
(1) Clemson at (4) Notre Dame 7 p.m. ET Saturday Clemson -5.5 51.5
(9) BYU at (23) Boise State odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under 59.5
Why the line moved
This game opened pick 'em at FanDuel and moved to Brigham Young -2.5 Monday afternoon, with practically every early ticket and all the early dollars on the Cougars. The total dipped two points to 57.5, then returned to the opener of 59.5, with ticket count 9/1 on the Over and 72 percent of early cash on the Over, as well.
Air Force at (22) Army odds
Opening line
Army -6.5, Over/Under 41.5
Why the line moved
The Black Knights were already down two points at FanDuel, sitting as 4.5-point favorites Monday night on some interesting point-spread betting splits: ticket count is more than 2/1 Army, but money is almost dead even. The total is also down a point to 40.5, with 77 percent of bets and nearly all the money on the Under.
Houston at (6) Cincinnati Odds
Opening line
Cincinnati -10.5, Over/Under 58.5
Why the line moved
Cincinnati opened -10.5 at FanDuel and sped to -13.5 by Monday afternoon, but the betting splits are a bit wild. The Bearcats are attracting 95 percent of early tickets, but money is two-way, with 52 percent of early dollars on double-digit-dog Houston. The total is down to 56.5 from 58.5, with a 4/1 ticket count on the Under and almost all the early money on the Under.
(25) Michigan at (13) Indiana odds
Opening line
Michigan -3.5, Over/Under 55.5
Why the line moved
Michigan, coming off a stunning home loss to Michigan State, opened -3.5 at FanDuel and moved to -2.5. As of Monday night, 53 percent of bets and 68 percent of money were on the Wolverines. The total tumbled from 55.5 to 51.5, with 62 percent of tickets on the Over, but 74 percent of cash on the Under.
Rutgers at (3) Ohio State Odds
Opening line
Ohio State -38, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Ohio State opened a massive favorite at The SuperBook at Westgate, and there was no line movement on Monday. The Buckeyes are coming off a 38-25 victory at Penn State, while Rutgers fell to visiting Indiana 37-21.
Arizona State at (20) USC odds
Opening line
Southern California -9.5, Over/Under 59.5
Why the line moved
And hello to the Pac-12, which finally joins the college football scene on the first weekend of November. By Monday night, USC was already up to -11.5 at FanDuel in a game drawing two-way action, with 54 percent of bets on Arizona State and 55 percent of money on Southern Cal. The total ticked from 59.5 to 58.5, though 69 percent of bets and 60 percent of dollars were on the Over as of Monday night.
Stanford at (14) Oregon odds
Opening line
Oregon -9.5, Over/Under 53.5
Why the line moved
Staying in the Pac-12, FanDuel sped to Ducks -12 Sunday afternoon, but a volatile line was down to -10.5 by late Monday morning. Still, ticket count and money were both running 4/1 on Oregon. The total dipped from 53.5 to 52.5 Monday, with tickets split 50/50 but almost all the early money on the Under.
(12) Oklahoma State at Kansas State odds
Opening line
Oklahoma State -9.5, Over/Under 50.5
Why the line moved
The Cowboys bolted to -13.5 at FanDuel by early Monday afternoon, then receded a bit to -12.5. It's two-way action early, with 59 percent of tickets on Kansas State and 53 percent of money on Oklahoma State. The total first went up to 51.5, then plummeted to 46.5, with tickets more than 2/1 on the Over, but money 2/1 on the Under.
(8) Florida at (5) Georgia odds
Opening line
Georgia -4.5, Over/Under 52.5
Why the line moved
It's a neutral-site game in Jacksonville, Fla., for the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, the unofficial name of this rivalry. FanDuel opened the Bulldogs -4.5, and that number stuck through Monday night, while the total moved from 52.5 to 53.5, but betting splits were not yet available.
(1) Clemson at (4) Notre Dame odds
Opening line
Clemson -6.5, Over/Under 51.5
Why the line moved
FanDuel posted a look-ahead line for this game back on Oct. 24, with Clemson a 14.5-point road chalk. However, last week's news that Tigers stud QB Trevor Lawrence tested positive for COVID-19 led to that line coming off the board. On the subsequent news that Lawrence won't play this week, the line went up at Clemson -6.5 Sunday and fell to -5.5 Monday. The Tigers were landing 60 percent of bets/64 percent of money on the spread through Monday night. The total opened 51.5 and went to 52.5 before returning to the opener Monday, with 76 percent of bets on the Over, but 53 percent of early money on the Under.
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arty:Jeff Siegel's Keeneland Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 11/06/20
November 6, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Keeneland Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Friday, November 6, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 11:30 ET Grade: B+
Use: 1-Highly Motivated; 6-Quick Tempo
Forecast: Quick Tempo added blinkers for the first time and returned to winning form with a gate-to-wire dominating score two weeks ago at Parx and today steps up in class with a speed figure that is good enough to win at this level. The son of Tapizar looks to be the quickest in the field and if he can clear early without undue pressure the C. Davis-trained juvenile may be very tough to catch. Highly Motivated has the proper style for this extended sprint distance, having just broken his maiden nicely from a second flight, stalking position at Belmont Park in late September. The C. Brown-trained son of Into Mischief has plenty of room for further development, so with a trouble-free trip from the rail he should heard from in the final furlong. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Quick Tempo on top.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:05 ET Grade: B+
Single: 11-Farsighted
Forecast: Farsighted broke her maiden over the local main track last month with a visually pleasing effort and appears quite capable of winning on the raise in this listed stakes sprint for juvenile fillies. The daughter of Bernardini kicked clear with authority to graduate over six furlongs by seven widening lengths while given every indication that today’s extra half-furlong will promote her stalking style. Three easy workouts since that race indicate she’s ready to step forward again, so at 5-1 on the morning line the G. Arnold-trained 2-year-old is worth a good gamble both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 12:40 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-No Word; 5-Pixelate; 6-Fancy Liquor
Forecast: The Bryan Station Stakes, restricted to 3-year-olds over a mile and one-eighth, looks very much like a grass grab bag. We’ll go three-deep and hope to get by but you may find the need to spread even deeper. No Wordfinished a strong second in the Belmont Derby-G1 last month while earning a career-top speed figure and not much more will be needed to land him in the winner’s circle. In a race that projects to be slowly run early the Silent Name colt has enough tactical speed to always be within range and then have his chance from the quarter pole home. Pixelate won the Del Mar Derby-G2 two races back in excellent style and today is reunited with “win rider” U. Rispoli. Fifth in the Belmont Derby when victimized by a wide trip and a lack of pace, the City Zip colt could easily bounce back today at a decent (8-1) price. Fancy Liquor picks up 4 lbs. following his game win in the American Turf S.-G3 at Churchill Downs in early September but today’s projected pace flow looks somewhat softer and we’re expecting the son of Looking At Lucky should have a relatively easy trip pressing or even establishing the pace. A winner of three of six career starts, the M. Maker-trained colt is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:15 ET Grade: B-
Use: J; 4-Into Chocolate; 7-Unholy Alliance
Forecast: Here’s a tough and competitive affair, a six furlong listed stakes sprint for fillies and mares. Unholy Alliance was in a tad too tough when fourth in the Honorable Miss S.-G3 at Saratoga last time out but this group should be well within her capabilities. An overnight win at Saratoga two races back charts very well in this affair, and in a race that shouldn’t have fast early fractions the daughter of First Samurai projects to be within striking range throughout. At 9/2 on the morning line she’s a square number. Into Chocolate, always most effective as a late-running sprinter, looked good winning the Chillingworth S.-G3 at Santa Anita in late September in a race that produced a career top speed figure and has trained quite well since to remain on edge. She’s reunited with J. Ortiz, who rode her to a win last summer at Belmont Park, and on paper appears much better than her morning line of 12-1 would indicate. These two will comprise our main punch in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Unholy Alliance.
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RACE 5: Post: 1:50 ET Grade: B+
Single: 13-Cupid’s Claws
Forecast: Cupid’s Claws looked terrific winning a similar main track marathon at Santa Anita in late September, stalking the pace in hand and then quickening readily when turned loose heading for home. Primarily a turf or synthetic specialist throughout his career, the son of Kitten’s Joy may have found a home on conventional dirt and if he can turn in two alike he can win right back under F. Prat. He’s 5-1 on the morning line and offers excellent value at that price in the win pool and as a rolling exotic key.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:30 ET Grade: B+
Use: 6-Ubettabelievit; 14-Golden Pal
Forecast: Prior to entries being drawn Golden Pal seemed like a logical rolling exotic single in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint S.-G1 and in fact projected as one of the most probable winners in the two-day Breeders’ Cup carnival. That was before he drew 14 of 14 in this five and one-half furlong dash. Now what? Second in his first two outings – the first in a maiden dirt sprint at Gulfstream Park and the second (by a neck) in the Norfolk S.-G2 at Royal Ascot – the W. Ward-trained colt finally figured things out when trouncing a good field in the Skidmore S. at Saratoga in mid-August while looking very much like the top class turf sprinter that he was cut out to be. Winning geared down by more than three lengths while earning a powerful 92 Beyer speed figure, the son of Uncle Mo has been kept on edge with a healthy series of easy drills that should have him fit, fresh and ready. Yes, that post position is problematic and he’ll have to bust out and get over to avoid getting parked before the field hits the far turn, so at 8/5 on the morning line he can’t make an mistakes at the break.
For those looking for a tote-buster, consider the European invader Ubettabelieveit, a no-fluke 40-1 come-from-behind winner of the straightaway five furlong Flying Childers S.-G2 at Doncaster in mid-September in his most recent start. Interestingly, that performance garnered a 92 Timeform rating, the same figure that was assigned to Golden Pal in his Norfolk triumph. He’s 20-1 on the morning line. We’re going to try to survive and advance in rolling exotic play using just the two listed above.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:10 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Sealiway; 2-New Mandate; 6-Mutasaabeq; 9-Battleground; 12-Go Athletico
Forecast: This may be the most contentious race of the two-day Breeders’ Cup festival. We can pinpoint at least six major contenders and even a few others among the field of 14 that have a right to at least hit the board. The European contingent has strength in numbers and it would not be surprising to see the winner emerge from that group. Battleground, a War Front colt from 2015 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf champion Found, was beaten on debut when given a run in June at Naas but left that form far behind when winning both the listed Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and then the Vintage S.-G2 the following month at Goodwood. His Timeform numbers aren’t off the charts but they’re rising with each outing, and he has every right to be far superior now after three additional months of development and maturity. It should be noted that the layoff wasn’t necessarily by design, as a cough cost him a start in mid-September in the National S.-G1 at The Curragh. From the yard of A. O’Brian (a four-time winner of this race), he’s the most fancied price among those quoted by European bookmakers and is listed at 6-1 on the Keeneland morning line. He’ll offer excellent wagering value at or near that price.
Sealiway arrives following a thoroughly impressive eight-length victory in the Prix Jean-Luc Legardere-G1 on Arc day that was assigned a superior 105 Timeform Rating, but the performance, eye-catching as it may have been, was accomplished in a bog and may not be transferable to the Keeneland course, which may feel like top-of-the-ground in comparison. The French-bred colt certainly is not a one-hit wonder, as overall he’s been successful in four of six starts including a win in a listed stakes to go along with two other stakes placings, among them a strong runner-up effort in the Prix la Rochette-G3. With a good stalking style and the ability to accelerate, the F. Rossie-trained colt should be free and clear of most of the traffic and have every chance to show his best stuff when the pressure is turned on.
New Mandate is a progressive gelding that caught the eye winning the Royal Lodge S.-G2 over a testing straightaway mile at Newmarket in late September, settling early and then quickening impressively in the final stages. It was his third straight win from five career starts and was clearly his best; with another forward move (or at least a repeat of that performance) he’ll be right there.
Go Athletico, a winner over Sealiway in the Prix la Rochette-G2 and subsequently an excellent runner-up when sent to France in the Criterium de Maisons-Laffite-G2 at Chantilly, has never been worse that second and shows Timeform ratings that have risen with every one of his five career starts. Despite having low profile connections, he’s a “must use” somewhere on your ticket.
The North American group appears decent but hardly spectacular. You may feel the need to include (at least on a back-up ticket) Mutasaabeq the smart winner of the Bourbon S.-G2 over the course and distance at Keeneland last month after changing tactics from a pace-presser to a deep closer. Similar patient tactics surely will be employed again.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:50 ET Grade: C
Use: 1-Simply Ravishing; 2-Vequist; 3-Dayoutoftheoffice; 5-Girl Daddy; 7-Princess Noor
Forecast: Trainer Bob Baffert hasn’t won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies S.-G1 since saddling Indian Blessing to victory in 2007 – he’s had nine starters since - so when you evaluate the California-based Princess Noor it’s difficult to give her any extra credit for representing the winningest barn according to purse earnings in the BC history. Furthermore, her career top Equibase speed figure (96) would rank only 23 of 28 since the numbers were first published in 1992 and the 82 assigned to her most recent victory in the Chandelier S.-G2 would not have been good enough to win any edition of BC Juvenile Fillies during that time frame. So, what do you believe, the numbers, or your eyes? Admittedly, she has been beating substandard competition but the daughter of Not This Time, purchased for $1.35 million at the OBS April Sale, hasn’t yet been asked yet for anything close to her best according to the trainer, who says regular jockey V. Espinoza has been under instructions to win her races “by as little as possible, just like American Pharoah.” No such restrictions will be in place on the first Friday in November at Keeneland. In the meantime we can get a glimpse of her potential by watching her train, and it’s difficult to imagine any of her main rivals being more impressive during workouts leading up to the race that will determine divisional championship honors. The problem is she’s listed at 7/5 on the morning line and at that price she’s probably not going to be offering any value.
Based strictly on speed figures Dayoutoftheoffice is considerably faster than the California invader, though she has yet to try two-turns and her pedigree (Into Mischief from an Indian Charlie mare) doesn’t guarantee that she’ll be just as effective running long as short. A one-turn mile victory in the Frizette S.-G1 was visually pleasing to be sure, as she switched off nicely while stalking the pace and then kicked clear when given her cue. The old handicapping axiom – even if they don’t want to route they will the first time they try it – certainly can be applied by those who believe she’s a cut above the rest, and she may very well be, which is why the T. Hamm-trained filly is strictly the one to beat.
Others in the race that deserve strong consideration include Simply Ravishing (perfect in three starts including a six length romp over this course and distance in the Alcibiades S.-G1 last month) and Girl Daddy (undefeated in two starts including the Pocahontas S.-G3 in smart style but trying two turns for the first time). Additionally, Vyquist, a clear second behind Dayoutoftheoffice in the Frizette with a less than ideal trip and before that a nine length winner of the Spinaway S.-G1, has every right to highly competitive.
Big ticket punters may find the need to spread deeply in this race, using each filly mentioned in this analysis somewhere on their rolling exotic tickets. That will be our strategy.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:30 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Miss Amulet; 4-Plum Ali; 5-Aunt Pearl; 10-Campanelle
Forecast: Aunt Pearl enters this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf-G1 unblemished, having won her debut at Saratoga in September by five widening lengths on the front end going long and then dominating gate-to-wire over this Keeneland course and distance when capturing the Jessamine S.-G2 the following month. She’s an Irish-bred with immense quality but today, with the presence of sprinter-stretching-out Campanelle is the field, most likely will be relegated to a stalker’s role, which won’t necessary be a bad thing since she hardly strikes us as a need-the-lead type. Already successful twice around two turns, she’ll have no distance concerns based on performance and pedigree but a contrarian would point out that her winning Equibase speed figure (96) in the Jessamine would be good enough to win only one of the previous 12 editions of this race. We’ll see how good she really is today.
Undefeated in three starts, a graded stakes winner at Royal Ascot and Deauville and easily the controlling speed if she wants to be, the W. Ward-trained Campanellecertainly will be tough to catch in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf-G1 over a mile on grass if she rates kindly on the front end and exhibits the type of reserve energy that she displayed under pressure both in the Queen Mary S.-G2 and most recently in the Prix Morny-G1. The daughter of Kodiak has been away for 10 weeks but her healthy once-a-week work pattern over the same Keeneland turf course provides hope that she’ll see out the trip. If there is a concern, it’s that in her only previous non-straightaway performance – her five furlong debut sprint win at Gulfstream Park on turf – she was considerably late changing leads, and in her most recent workout she again didn’t switch over until approaching the wire. If she is sloppy on her leads again today, that final furlong could prove problematic.
Miss Amulet is a “must use” at her listed morning line price of 12-1. An excellent runner-up in the 6F Cheveley Park S.-G1 at Newmarket in late September and before that the winner of the 14-runner Lowther S.-G2 at York, she’s elevated her Timeform ratings in each of seven career starts and has proven to be thoroughly genuine. The issue is the trip – this will be her first try farther than seven furlongs and her first around a turn – but if she can switch off and settle behind Campanelle the daughter of Sir Prancealot (from an Oasis Dream mare) certainly has the pedigree to stay the mile.
Plum Ali is perfect in three starts, with two stakes wins on her resume that include the recent Miss Grillo S.-G2 last month at Belmont Park. She probably hasn’t beaten much yet and her numbers are nothing more than decent, but if the pace is contested her late-running style could make her dangerous, though we’d probably want more than her morning line of 4-1.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:15 ET Grade: B
Use: 5-Essential Quality; 7-Jackie’s Warrior; 8-Classier
Forecast: It’s hard to get past Jackie’s Warrior, the undefeated two-time Grade-1 winner with rising speed figures in each of his four outings and the earner of a triple-digit Beyer fig when much best on the lead throughout in the 8F Champagne S.-G1 last month. This will be his first try around two turns, and as a son of Maclean’s Music there’s always going to be some doubt whether he’ll be just as dominating two-turning. In his debut he stalked, pounced, and drew off, so the option is available for J. Rosario to adjust if necessary depending upon the race flow, but having said that he’s almost certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics.
Stranger danger – and good long shot value - comes in the form of the B. Baffert-trained Classier, a debut sprint winner by daylight without ever being asked for anything close to his best less than two weeks ago at Santa Anita. A $775,000 Keeneland yearling purchase, he’s being asked for a lot, but he may have upside that most of the others don’t and his pedigree suggests the longer they go the better he’ll like it. Whether he has the seasoning or the foundation to worry a proven top class colt like Jackie’s Warrior is at best problematic, but he’s 12-1 on the morning line and we’re going to assume that he wouldn’t been entered in the race unless his trainer thought he belonged.
Essential Quality is unbeaten in two starts and already has a Grade-1 win over this track and distance, having scored impressively in the Breeders’ Futurity-G1 last month with comfortable stalking trip. The son of Tapit is a high-potential type from the B. Cox barn and a strong threat and a “must use.”
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November 6, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Keeneland Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Friday, November 6, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 11:30 ET Grade: B+
Use: 1-Highly Motivated; 6-Quick Tempo
Forecast: Quick Tempo added blinkers for the first time and returned to winning form with a gate-to-wire dominating score two weeks ago at Parx and today steps up in class with a speed figure that is good enough to win at this level. The son of Tapizar looks to be the quickest in the field and if he can clear early without undue pressure the C. Davis-trained juvenile may be very tough to catch. Highly Motivated has the proper style for this extended sprint distance, having just broken his maiden nicely from a second flight, stalking position at Belmont Park in late September. The C. Brown-trained son of Into Mischief has plenty of room for further development, so with a trouble-free trip from the rail he should heard from in the final furlong. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Quick Tempo on top.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:05 ET Grade: B+
Single: 11-Farsighted
Forecast: Farsighted broke her maiden over the local main track last month with a visually pleasing effort and appears quite capable of winning on the raise in this listed stakes sprint for juvenile fillies. The daughter of Bernardini kicked clear with authority to graduate over six furlongs by seven widening lengths while given every indication that today’s extra half-furlong will promote her stalking style. Three easy workouts since that race indicate she’s ready to step forward again, so at 5-1 on the morning line the G. Arnold-trained 2-year-old is worth a good gamble both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 12:40 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-No Word; 5-Pixelate; 6-Fancy Liquor
Forecast: The Bryan Station Stakes, restricted to 3-year-olds over a mile and one-eighth, looks very much like a grass grab bag. We’ll go three-deep and hope to get by but you may find the need to spread even deeper. No Wordfinished a strong second in the Belmont Derby-G1 last month while earning a career-top speed figure and not much more will be needed to land him in the winner’s circle. In a race that projects to be slowly run early the Silent Name colt has enough tactical speed to always be within range and then have his chance from the quarter pole home. Pixelate won the Del Mar Derby-G2 two races back in excellent style and today is reunited with “win rider” U. Rispoli. Fifth in the Belmont Derby when victimized by a wide trip and a lack of pace, the City Zip colt could easily bounce back today at a decent (8-1) price. Fancy Liquor picks up 4 lbs. following his game win in the American Turf S.-G3 at Churchill Downs in early September but today’s projected pace flow looks somewhat softer and we’re expecting the son of Looking At Lucky should have a relatively easy trip pressing or even establishing the pace. A winner of three of six career starts, the M. Maker-trained colt is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:15 ET Grade: B-
Use: J; 4-Into Chocolate; 7-Unholy Alliance
Forecast: Here’s a tough and competitive affair, a six furlong listed stakes sprint for fillies and mares. Unholy Alliance was in a tad too tough when fourth in the Honorable Miss S.-G3 at Saratoga last time out but this group should be well within her capabilities. An overnight win at Saratoga two races back charts very well in this affair, and in a race that shouldn’t have fast early fractions the daughter of First Samurai projects to be within striking range throughout. At 9/2 on the morning line she’s a square number. Into Chocolate, always most effective as a late-running sprinter, looked good winning the Chillingworth S.-G3 at Santa Anita in late September in a race that produced a career top speed figure and has trained quite well since to remain on edge. She’s reunited with J. Ortiz, who rode her to a win last summer at Belmont Park, and on paper appears much better than her morning line of 12-1 would indicate. These two will comprise our main punch in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Unholy Alliance.
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RACE 5: Post: 1:50 ET Grade: B+
Single: 13-Cupid’s Claws
Forecast: Cupid’s Claws looked terrific winning a similar main track marathon at Santa Anita in late September, stalking the pace in hand and then quickening readily when turned loose heading for home. Primarily a turf or synthetic specialist throughout his career, the son of Kitten’s Joy may have found a home on conventional dirt and if he can turn in two alike he can win right back under F. Prat. He’s 5-1 on the morning line and offers excellent value at that price in the win pool and as a rolling exotic key.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:30 ET Grade: B+
Use: 6-Ubettabelievit; 14-Golden Pal
Forecast: Prior to entries being drawn Golden Pal seemed like a logical rolling exotic single in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint S.-G1 and in fact projected as one of the most probable winners in the two-day Breeders’ Cup carnival. That was before he drew 14 of 14 in this five and one-half furlong dash. Now what? Second in his first two outings – the first in a maiden dirt sprint at Gulfstream Park and the second (by a neck) in the Norfolk S.-G2 at Royal Ascot – the W. Ward-trained colt finally figured things out when trouncing a good field in the Skidmore S. at Saratoga in mid-August while looking very much like the top class turf sprinter that he was cut out to be. Winning geared down by more than three lengths while earning a powerful 92 Beyer speed figure, the son of Uncle Mo has been kept on edge with a healthy series of easy drills that should have him fit, fresh and ready. Yes, that post position is problematic and he’ll have to bust out and get over to avoid getting parked before the field hits the far turn, so at 8/5 on the morning line he can’t make an mistakes at the break.
For those looking for a tote-buster, consider the European invader Ubettabelieveit, a no-fluke 40-1 come-from-behind winner of the straightaway five furlong Flying Childers S.-G2 at Doncaster in mid-September in his most recent start. Interestingly, that performance garnered a 92 Timeform rating, the same figure that was assigned to Golden Pal in his Norfolk triumph. He’s 20-1 on the morning line. We’re going to try to survive and advance in rolling exotic play using just the two listed above.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:10 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Sealiway; 2-New Mandate; 6-Mutasaabeq; 9-Battleground; 12-Go Athletico
Forecast: This may be the most contentious race of the two-day Breeders’ Cup festival. We can pinpoint at least six major contenders and even a few others among the field of 14 that have a right to at least hit the board. The European contingent has strength in numbers and it would not be surprising to see the winner emerge from that group. Battleground, a War Front colt from 2015 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf champion Found, was beaten on debut when given a run in June at Naas but left that form far behind when winning both the listed Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and then the Vintage S.-G2 the following month at Goodwood. His Timeform numbers aren’t off the charts but they’re rising with each outing, and he has every right to be far superior now after three additional months of development and maturity. It should be noted that the layoff wasn’t necessarily by design, as a cough cost him a start in mid-September in the National S.-G1 at The Curragh. From the yard of A. O’Brian (a four-time winner of this race), he’s the most fancied price among those quoted by European bookmakers and is listed at 6-1 on the Keeneland morning line. He’ll offer excellent wagering value at or near that price.
Sealiway arrives following a thoroughly impressive eight-length victory in the Prix Jean-Luc Legardere-G1 on Arc day that was assigned a superior 105 Timeform Rating, but the performance, eye-catching as it may have been, was accomplished in a bog and may not be transferable to the Keeneland course, which may feel like top-of-the-ground in comparison. The French-bred colt certainly is not a one-hit wonder, as overall he’s been successful in four of six starts including a win in a listed stakes to go along with two other stakes placings, among them a strong runner-up effort in the Prix la Rochette-G3. With a good stalking style and the ability to accelerate, the F. Rossie-trained colt should be free and clear of most of the traffic and have every chance to show his best stuff when the pressure is turned on.
New Mandate is a progressive gelding that caught the eye winning the Royal Lodge S.-G2 over a testing straightaway mile at Newmarket in late September, settling early and then quickening impressively in the final stages. It was his third straight win from five career starts and was clearly his best; with another forward move (or at least a repeat of that performance) he’ll be right there.
Go Athletico, a winner over Sealiway in the Prix la Rochette-G2 and subsequently an excellent runner-up when sent to France in the Criterium de Maisons-Laffite-G2 at Chantilly, has never been worse that second and shows Timeform ratings that have risen with every one of his five career starts. Despite having low profile connections, he’s a “must use” somewhere on your ticket.
The North American group appears decent but hardly spectacular. You may feel the need to include (at least on a back-up ticket) Mutasaabeq the smart winner of the Bourbon S.-G2 over the course and distance at Keeneland last month after changing tactics from a pace-presser to a deep closer. Similar patient tactics surely will be employed again.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:50 ET Grade: C
Use: 1-Simply Ravishing; 2-Vequist; 3-Dayoutoftheoffice; 5-Girl Daddy; 7-Princess Noor
Forecast: Trainer Bob Baffert hasn’t won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies S.-G1 since saddling Indian Blessing to victory in 2007 – he’s had nine starters since - so when you evaluate the California-based Princess Noor it’s difficult to give her any extra credit for representing the winningest barn according to purse earnings in the BC history. Furthermore, her career top Equibase speed figure (96) would rank only 23 of 28 since the numbers were first published in 1992 and the 82 assigned to her most recent victory in the Chandelier S.-G2 would not have been good enough to win any edition of BC Juvenile Fillies during that time frame. So, what do you believe, the numbers, or your eyes? Admittedly, she has been beating substandard competition but the daughter of Not This Time, purchased for $1.35 million at the OBS April Sale, hasn’t yet been asked yet for anything close to her best according to the trainer, who says regular jockey V. Espinoza has been under instructions to win her races “by as little as possible, just like American Pharoah.” No such restrictions will be in place on the first Friday in November at Keeneland. In the meantime we can get a glimpse of her potential by watching her train, and it’s difficult to imagine any of her main rivals being more impressive during workouts leading up to the race that will determine divisional championship honors. The problem is she’s listed at 7/5 on the morning line and at that price she’s probably not going to be offering any value.
Based strictly on speed figures Dayoutoftheoffice is considerably faster than the California invader, though she has yet to try two-turns and her pedigree (Into Mischief from an Indian Charlie mare) doesn’t guarantee that she’ll be just as effective running long as short. A one-turn mile victory in the Frizette S.-G1 was visually pleasing to be sure, as she switched off nicely while stalking the pace and then kicked clear when given her cue. The old handicapping axiom – even if they don’t want to route they will the first time they try it – certainly can be applied by those who believe she’s a cut above the rest, and she may very well be, which is why the T. Hamm-trained filly is strictly the one to beat.
Others in the race that deserve strong consideration include Simply Ravishing (perfect in three starts including a six length romp over this course and distance in the Alcibiades S.-G1 last month) and Girl Daddy (undefeated in two starts including the Pocahontas S.-G3 in smart style but trying two turns for the first time). Additionally, Vyquist, a clear second behind Dayoutoftheoffice in the Frizette with a less than ideal trip and before that a nine length winner of the Spinaway S.-G1, has every right to highly competitive.
Big ticket punters may find the need to spread deeply in this race, using each filly mentioned in this analysis somewhere on their rolling exotic tickets. That will be our strategy.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:30 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Miss Amulet; 4-Plum Ali; 5-Aunt Pearl; 10-Campanelle
Forecast: Aunt Pearl enters this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf-G1 unblemished, having won her debut at Saratoga in September by five widening lengths on the front end going long and then dominating gate-to-wire over this Keeneland course and distance when capturing the Jessamine S.-G2 the following month. She’s an Irish-bred with immense quality but today, with the presence of sprinter-stretching-out Campanelle is the field, most likely will be relegated to a stalker’s role, which won’t necessary be a bad thing since she hardly strikes us as a need-the-lead type. Already successful twice around two turns, she’ll have no distance concerns based on performance and pedigree but a contrarian would point out that her winning Equibase speed figure (96) in the Jessamine would be good enough to win only one of the previous 12 editions of this race. We’ll see how good she really is today.
Undefeated in three starts, a graded stakes winner at Royal Ascot and Deauville and easily the controlling speed if she wants to be, the W. Ward-trained Campanellecertainly will be tough to catch in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf-G1 over a mile on grass if she rates kindly on the front end and exhibits the type of reserve energy that she displayed under pressure both in the Queen Mary S.-G2 and most recently in the Prix Morny-G1. The daughter of Kodiak has been away for 10 weeks but her healthy once-a-week work pattern over the same Keeneland turf course provides hope that she’ll see out the trip. If there is a concern, it’s that in her only previous non-straightaway performance – her five furlong debut sprint win at Gulfstream Park on turf – she was considerably late changing leads, and in her most recent workout she again didn’t switch over until approaching the wire. If she is sloppy on her leads again today, that final furlong could prove problematic.
Miss Amulet is a “must use” at her listed morning line price of 12-1. An excellent runner-up in the 6F Cheveley Park S.-G1 at Newmarket in late September and before that the winner of the 14-runner Lowther S.-G2 at York, she’s elevated her Timeform ratings in each of seven career starts and has proven to be thoroughly genuine. The issue is the trip – this will be her first try farther than seven furlongs and her first around a turn – but if she can switch off and settle behind Campanelle the daughter of Sir Prancealot (from an Oasis Dream mare) certainly has the pedigree to stay the mile.
Plum Ali is perfect in three starts, with two stakes wins on her resume that include the recent Miss Grillo S.-G2 last month at Belmont Park. She probably hasn’t beaten much yet and her numbers are nothing more than decent, but if the pace is contested her late-running style could make her dangerous, though we’d probably want more than her morning line of 4-1.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:15 ET Grade: B
Use: 5-Essential Quality; 7-Jackie’s Warrior; 8-Classier
Forecast: It’s hard to get past Jackie’s Warrior, the undefeated two-time Grade-1 winner with rising speed figures in each of his four outings and the earner of a triple-digit Beyer fig when much best on the lead throughout in the 8F Champagne S.-G1 last month. This will be his first try around two turns, and as a son of Maclean’s Music there’s always going to be some doubt whether he’ll be just as dominating two-turning. In his debut he stalked, pounced, and drew off, so the option is available for J. Rosario to adjust if necessary depending upon the race flow, but having said that he’s almost certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics.
Stranger danger – and good long shot value - comes in the form of the B. Baffert-trained Classier, a debut sprint winner by daylight without ever being asked for anything close to his best less than two weeks ago at Santa Anita. A $775,000 Keeneland yearling purchase, he’s being asked for a lot, but he may have upside that most of the others don’t and his pedigree suggests the longer they go the better he’ll like it. Whether he has the seasoning or the foundation to worry a proven top class colt like Jackie’s Warrior is at best problematic, but he’s 12-1 on the morning line and we’re going to assume that he wouldn’t been entered in the race unless his trainer thought he belonged.
Essential Quality is unbeaten in two starts and already has a Grade-1 win over this track and distance, having scored impressively in the Breeders’ Futurity-G1 last month with comfortable stalking trip. The son of Tapit is a high-potential type from the B. Cox barn and a strong threat and a “must use.”
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Picks for Breeders' Cup Friday
November 4, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Breeders’ Cup annually hosts the best Thoroughbreds across all divisions of racing, and the most interesting two days of handicapping for horseplayers. Whether you’re a regular to betting the Breeders’ Cup or dropping by for the elite Friday and Saturday cards at Keeneland, the 1/ST BET app can help you bridge the gap with a data-driven process.
Selections provided by the 1/ST INDEX measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6
RACE 1 (11:30AM ET) // NYQUIST S. // 6 1/2 FURLONGS (DIRT)
#9 // SAFFA’S DAY (7/2) // 30% WIN
#8 // AWESOME GERRY (6/1) // 17% WIN
#1 // HIGHLY MOTIVATED (7/2) // 13% WIN
#4 // UPSTRIKER (6/1) // 10% WIN
Notable: Impressive 2020 Keeneland Fall Meet debut winner Saffa’s Day matches the second-largest win rate (30%) on the Friday card. The 1/ST INDEX stands against 5-2 morning line favorite Quick Tempo.
RACE 2 (12:05PM ET) // SONGBIRD S. // 6 1/2 FURLONGS (DIRT)
#14 // CALIFORNIA LILY (9/2) // 28% WIN
#8 // TAYLOR’S TOURIST (15/1) // 19% WIN
#7 // NOVEL SQUALL (12/1) // 10% WIN
#9 // THE GRASS IS BLUE (4/1) // 7% WIN
Notable: Lukewarm morning line favorite The Grass Is Blue is 4-1, showing this to be a potentially wide-open race. But the 1/ST INDEX is bullish on its top pair, noticing 9-point spreads between the first and second choices, and another 9 to the third choice.
RACE 3 (12:40PM ET) // BRYAN STATION S. // 1 1/8 MILES (TURF)
#7 // SPANISH KINGDOM (15/1) // 18% WIN
#6 // FANCY LIQUOR (4/1) // 16% WIN
#1 // ENFORCEABLE (10/1) // 9% WIN
#14 // BYE BYE MELVIN (8/1) // 8% WIN
Notable: Another 4-1 morning line favorite, this time the 1/ST INDEX puts Fancy Liquor squarely into the win discussion. Spanish Kingdom’s 15-1 morning line price is co-second highest today among top choices following his victory on the Keeneland turf in allowance company.
RACE 4 (1:15PM ET) // MCCONNELL SPRINGS S. // 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)
#6 // UNIQUE FACTOR (6/1) // 30% WIN
#2 // AMY’S CHALLENGE (4/1) // 19% WIN
#4 // INTO CHOCOLATE (12/1) // 19% WIN
#1 // BYE BYE J (7/2) // 7% WIN
Notable: Unique Factor drops in class after facing graded-stakes company in 3 of her last 4 starts for top national sprint trainer Peter Miller. Her 30% win rate matches the second-highest on today’s card.
RACE 5 (1:50PM ET) // THOROUGHBRED AFTERCARE ALLIANCE S. // 1 5/8 MILES (DIRT)
#7 // SIGNALMAN (12/1) // 32% WIN
#5 // TENFOLD (5/1) // 13% WIN
#9 // MIRINAQUE (ARG) (50/1) // 7% WIN
#2 // FARMINGTON ROAD (15/1) // 7% WIN
Notable: Keeneland specialist Signalman owns the day’s highest 1/ST INDEX win rate at 32% and the biggest spread at 19 points to the second choice. At 12-1 in the morning line, it’s easy to identify this as the day’s best bet, according to the 1/ST INDEX.
RACE 6 (2:30PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF SPRINT (G2) // 5 1/2 FURLONGS (TURF)
#12 // DIRTY DANGLE (20/1) // 25% WIN
#14 // GOLDEN PAL (8/5) // 16% WIN
#10 // BODENHEIMER (8/1) // 11% WIN
#13 // SECOND OF JULY (8/1) // 10% WIN
Notable: The first of 5 consecutive Breeders’ Cup Championship race kicks off the late pick five. Dirty Dangle is the biggest longshot tabbed on top today by the 1/ST INDEX at 20-1. He changes barns to Mark Casse after a private sale, joining one of Keeneland’s most successful 2-year-old and turf trainers.
RACE 7 (3:10PM ET) // BREEDES’ CUP JUVENILE TURF (G1) // 1 MILE (TURF)
#11 // GRETZKY THE GREAT (8/1) // 15% WIN
#6 // MUTASAABEQ (5/1) // 11% WIN
#8 // OUTADORE (8/1) // 9% WIN
#15 // BARRISTER TOM (AE) (30/1) // 8% WIN
Notable: The 1/ST INDEX tabs the same jockey-trainer-owner with Gretzky the Great as Dirty Dangle in the preceding Breeders’ Cup championship event. This one’s a tighter call at 15%, matching the smallest rate by a 1/ST INDEX top choice in today’s 5 BC races.
RACE 8 (3:50PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES (G1) // 1 1/16 MILES (DIRT)
#1 // SIMPLY RAVISHING (5/2) // 30% WIN
#3 // DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE (5/2) // 24% WIN
#7 // PRINCESS NOOR (9/5) // 13% WIN
#6 // CRAZY BEAUTIFUL (20/1) // 10% WIN
Notable: The highest win-rate among the 5 Breeders’ Cup championship races Friday belongs to Simply Ravishing at 30%. The local Alcibiades winner and Frizette winner Dayoutoftheoffice strongly separate themselves from what looks to be a competitive group on paper.
RACE 9 (4:30PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF (G1) // 1 MILE (TURF)
#3 // ALDA (12/1) // 15% WIN
#11 // ROYAL APPROVAL (10/1) // 11% WIN
#12 // SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR (15/1) // 9% WIN
#4 // PLUM ALI (4/1) // 8% WIN
Notable: A surprising dismissal of unbeaten morning line favorite Aunt Pearl helps to put the 1/ST INDEX on a series of long prices. Alda continues a theme of Woodbine-based runners today in BC races that are well-supported by the algorithms. We’ll tab how that plays out in prior races.
RACE 10 (5:15PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (G1) // 1 1/16 MILES (DIRT)
#5 // ESSENTIAL QUALITY (4/1) // 16% WIN
#8 // CLASSIER (12/1) // 12% WIN
#7 // JACKIE’S WARRIOR (7/5) // 10% WIN
#11 // NEXT (15/1) // 10% WIN
Notable: Unbeaten morning line favorite Jackie’s Warrior gets snubbed by the algorithm in his first attempt around 2 turns. If he’s vulnerable, local stakes winner Essential Quality becomes the most logical next choice. Lightly raced Classier as the second choice is an interesting evaluation at double-digit odds.
November 4, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Breeders’ Cup annually hosts the best Thoroughbreds across all divisions of racing, and the most interesting two days of handicapping for horseplayers. Whether you’re a regular to betting the Breeders’ Cup or dropping by for the elite Friday and Saturday cards at Keeneland, the 1/ST BET app can help you bridge the gap with a data-driven process.
Selections provided by the 1/ST INDEX measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6
RACE 1 (11:30AM ET) // NYQUIST S. // 6 1/2 FURLONGS (DIRT)
#9 // SAFFA’S DAY (7/2) // 30% WIN
#8 // AWESOME GERRY (6/1) // 17% WIN
#1 // HIGHLY MOTIVATED (7/2) // 13% WIN
#4 // UPSTRIKER (6/1) // 10% WIN
Notable: Impressive 2020 Keeneland Fall Meet debut winner Saffa’s Day matches the second-largest win rate (30%) on the Friday card. The 1/ST INDEX stands against 5-2 morning line favorite Quick Tempo.
RACE 2 (12:05PM ET) // SONGBIRD S. // 6 1/2 FURLONGS (DIRT)
#14 // CALIFORNIA LILY (9/2) // 28% WIN
#8 // TAYLOR’S TOURIST (15/1) // 19% WIN
#7 // NOVEL SQUALL (12/1) // 10% WIN
#9 // THE GRASS IS BLUE (4/1) // 7% WIN
Notable: Lukewarm morning line favorite The Grass Is Blue is 4-1, showing this to be a potentially wide-open race. But the 1/ST INDEX is bullish on its top pair, noticing 9-point spreads between the first and second choices, and another 9 to the third choice.
RACE 3 (12:40PM ET) // BRYAN STATION S. // 1 1/8 MILES (TURF)
#7 // SPANISH KINGDOM (15/1) // 18% WIN
#6 // FANCY LIQUOR (4/1) // 16% WIN
#1 // ENFORCEABLE (10/1) // 9% WIN
#14 // BYE BYE MELVIN (8/1) // 8% WIN
Notable: Another 4-1 morning line favorite, this time the 1/ST INDEX puts Fancy Liquor squarely into the win discussion. Spanish Kingdom’s 15-1 morning line price is co-second highest today among top choices following his victory on the Keeneland turf in allowance company.
RACE 4 (1:15PM ET) // MCCONNELL SPRINGS S. // 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)
#6 // UNIQUE FACTOR (6/1) // 30% WIN
#2 // AMY’S CHALLENGE (4/1) // 19% WIN
#4 // INTO CHOCOLATE (12/1) // 19% WIN
#1 // BYE BYE J (7/2) // 7% WIN
Notable: Unique Factor drops in class after facing graded-stakes company in 3 of her last 4 starts for top national sprint trainer Peter Miller. Her 30% win rate matches the second-highest on today’s card.
RACE 5 (1:50PM ET) // THOROUGHBRED AFTERCARE ALLIANCE S. // 1 5/8 MILES (DIRT)
#7 // SIGNALMAN (12/1) // 32% WIN
#5 // TENFOLD (5/1) // 13% WIN
#9 // MIRINAQUE (ARG) (50/1) // 7% WIN
#2 // FARMINGTON ROAD (15/1) // 7% WIN
Notable: Keeneland specialist Signalman owns the day’s highest 1/ST INDEX win rate at 32% and the biggest spread at 19 points to the second choice. At 12-1 in the morning line, it’s easy to identify this as the day’s best bet, according to the 1/ST INDEX.
RACE 6 (2:30PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF SPRINT (G2) // 5 1/2 FURLONGS (TURF)
#12 // DIRTY DANGLE (20/1) // 25% WIN
#14 // GOLDEN PAL (8/5) // 16% WIN
#10 // BODENHEIMER (8/1) // 11% WIN
#13 // SECOND OF JULY (8/1) // 10% WIN
Notable: The first of 5 consecutive Breeders’ Cup Championship race kicks off the late pick five. Dirty Dangle is the biggest longshot tabbed on top today by the 1/ST INDEX at 20-1. He changes barns to Mark Casse after a private sale, joining one of Keeneland’s most successful 2-year-old and turf trainers.
RACE 7 (3:10PM ET) // BREEDES’ CUP JUVENILE TURF (G1) // 1 MILE (TURF)
#11 // GRETZKY THE GREAT (8/1) // 15% WIN
#6 // MUTASAABEQ (5/1) // 11% WIN
#8 // OUTADORE (8/1) // 9% WIN
#15 // BARRISTER TOM (AE) (30/1) // 8% WIN
Notable: The 1/ST INDEX tabs the same jockey-trainer-owner with Gretzky the Great as Dirty Dangle in the preceding Breeders’ Cup championship event. This one’s a tighter call at 15%, matching the smallest rate by a 1/ST INDEX top choice in today’s 5 BC races.
RACE 8 (3:50PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES (G1) // 1 1/16 MILES (DIRT)
#1 // SIMPLY RAVISHING (5/2) // 30% WIN
#3 // DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE (5/2) // 24% WIN
#7 // PRINCESS NOOR (9/5) // 13% WIN
#6 // CRAZY BEAUTIFUL (20/1) // 10% WIN
Notable: The highest win-rate among the 5 Breeders’ Cup championship races Friday belongs to Simply Ravishing at 30%. The local Alcibiades winner and Frizette winner Dayoutoftheoffice strongly separate themselves from what looks to be a competitive group on paper.
RACE 9 (4:30PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF (G1) // 1 MILE (TURF)
#3 // ALDA (12/1) // 15% WIN
#11 // ROYAL APPROVAL (10/1) // 11% WIN
#12 // SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR (15/1) // 9% WIN
#4 // PLUM ALI (4/1) // 8% WIN
Notable: A surprising dismissal of unbeaten morning line favorite Aunt Pearl helps to put the 1/ST INDEX on a series of long prices. Alda continues a theme of Woodbine-based runners today in BC races that are well-supported by the algorithms. We’ll tab how that plays out in prior races.
RACE 10 (5:15PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (G1) // 1 1/16 MILES (DIRT)
#5 // ESSENTIAL QUALITY (4/1) // 16% WIN
#8 // CLASSIER (12/1) // 12% WIN
#7 // JACKIE’S WARRIOR (7/5) // 10% WIN
#11 // NEXT (15/1) // 10% WIN
Notable: Unbeaten morning line favorite Jackie’s Warrior gets snubbed by the algorithm in his first attempt around 2 turns. If he’s vulnerable, local stakes winner Essential Quality becomes the most logical next choice. Lightly raced Classier as the second choice is an interesting evaluation at double-digit odds.
November 4, 2020 | By Brian Nadeau
Weekly Bankroll Builder: Keeneland Friday Early Pk5 Play
Let’s take a week off from the Stronach 5 and take a look at Friday’s early Pk5 at Keeneland, which has a 500k guaranteed pool to kick off Breeders’ Cup Weekend in Lexington.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Race 1 Kee (11:30 AM ET) – 125k Nyquist for 2yos at 6 ½ furlongs
We kick off what looks like an extremely tough sequence with a 2yo dash that has plenty of speed, so the stalking style of Bel MSW winner #1 HIGHLY MOTIVATED (7-2) should play well if he can work out a trip from the rail for the potent Brown-Klaravich combo. Cutting back and getting out of G1 company should help #4 UPSTRIKER (6-1), who was sharp pressing and drawing off on debut two-back on debut at Ellis. An outside attack post helps #9 SAFFIA’S DAY (7-2), who impressed dueling early and drawing off late on debut, over the track as well.
Pk5 A horses: 1,4,9 (listed in order of preference)
The class test comes for #8 AWESOME GERRY (6-1), but he’s looked good stalking and winning both starts in South Florida, and should trip out here. Maybe I’m just being stubborn, but I’ll make #6 QUICK TEMPO (5-2) prove that very fast romp last time—at Parx no less—wasn’t a fluke, especially since he won’t clear off on the lead like he did last time.
Pk5 B horses: 8,6
Potential B add-ins: #5 Sir Wellington (20-1), #2 Roderick (10-1)
Race 2 Kee – 125k Songbird for 2yo fillies at 6 ½ furlongs
The sister race to the opener also looks like it could be energetic early, which means #11 FARSIGHTED (5-1) might be able to get first run, and if she can double up on her MSW win last time, she’ll have a huge say. If things fall apart then Brown could be in line for a double with #9 THE GRASS IS BLUE (4-1), who moved way up off the private purchase last time, though I’m not sold on her quality just yet. She’ll have to earn it from the paring lot, but #14 CALIFORNIA LILY (9-2) was awesome winning on debut on the Tapeta at WO after dueling early and drawing off late, and she’s certainly bred for the main track as well. Lastly, I’ll toss in a price player in #4 THINKING (15-1), who is slow on paper but is also improving for Motion, and the aggressive pace will suit her too.
Pk5 A horses: 11,9,14,4
If there one horse who might be able to see out all the speed I’m hoping it’s #6 JOY’S ROCKET (9-2), who comes out of the G1 Frizette and cuts back, though it still won’t be easy, hence the supporting actress spot.
Pk5 B horses: 6
Potential B add-ins: #2 Off We Go (10-1)
Race 3 Kee – 150k Bryan Station 3yos at 1 1/8 miles (turf)
Another toughie, with a very non-descript field where several look the same on paper. I’m intrigued by #3 TAISHAN (12-1), who made his turf debut in the G2 American Turf at CD and was a fast-closing 2nd, and now gets an extra half-furlong to work with. There’s no doubt #2 NO WORD (5-1) hits hard from on or just off the pace, and the cutback from his 2nd in the G1 Belmont Derby probably helps too. If I like Taishan I have to like #6 FANCY LIQUOR (4-1), who beat him at CD and fires every time, though his margin for error, at an underlaid price, is a slim one.
Pk5 A horses: 3,2,6
The cutback out of the Belmont Derby figures to work for #5 PIXELATE (8-1) as well, but he’s a little slower on figures than the trio above, so he’ll have to improve to win. I have no idea what to make of #9 ORDER OF AUSTRAILIA (6-1), and he may well have simply taken an empty stall on the plane from Ireland with his classier stablemates, but it’s Coolmore, O’Brien, and Moore, and Lasix was added here too, and if you toss the soft ground no-show last time, there’s some strong form here to work with.
Pk5 B horses: 5,9
Potential B add-ins: #11 Mo Ready (8-1), #14 Bye Bye Melvin (8-1), #13 Don Juan Kitten (6-1)
Race 4 Kee – 150k McConnell Springs for 3upfm at 6 furlongs
With a trip note on #7 UNHOLY ALLIANCE (9-2), and field I really don’t like, I’ll single her, single I thought the Sar run two-back was really sharp, and she was clearly in too tough in the G2 last time. Her other asset is her tactical speed, as there’s not a lot of it in here and she should trip out nicely from a good attack post.
Pk5 A horses: 7
Clearly the class is #8 WILDWOOD’S BEAUT (9-2), who was in a pair of tough G1’s and wasn’t embarrassed, then didn’t like the Polytrack last time, so she’s got a big chance of bouncing back. Let’s use #6 UNIQUE FACTOR (6-1) too, since she has some class to her as well, and will like the drop.
Pk5 B horses: 8,6 (Please note, to keep the backup ticket down, I’ll be singling #13 Cupid’s Claws in R5)
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Race 5 Kee – 200k G2 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance for 3up at 1 5/8 miles
What a huge effort off the claim from #13 CUPID’S CLAWS (5-1), who aired in the G3 Tokyo City at SA, drew well here, and has the tactical speed to be involved throughout and get first run too. I’ll take the speed of #8 RY’S THE GUY (4-1), who just romped going 1 ½ miles at CD and may clear here. It looks like #5 TENFOLD (5-1) is the best stalker/closer, and that fast 4th in the G3 Pimlico Special would work here, so by using him I have a nice bookend with the top-2.
Pk5 A horses: 13,8,5
Anyone else seems like a reach to me, and it would be the old “Use one or use them all,” so I’ll call it a day on the top line.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #6 You’re to Blame (8-1), #12 Plus Que Parfait (8-1), #3 Rocketry (12-1)
The tickets:
Main Ticket: 1,4,9 with 11,9,14,4 with 3,2,6 with 7 with 13,8,5 = $54
Leg 1 B Backup: 8,6 with 11,9,14,4 with 3,2,6 with 7 with 13,8,5 = $36
Leg 2 B Backup: 1,4,9 with 6 with 3,2,6 with 7 with 13,8,5 = $13.50
Leg 3 B Backup: 1,4,9 with 11,9,14,4 with 5,9 with 7 with 13,8,5 = $36
Leg 4 B Backup: 1,4,9 with 11,9,14,4 with 3,2,6 with 8,6 with 13 = $36
Weekly Bankroll Builder: Keeneland Friday Early Pk5 Play
Let’s take a week off from the Stronach 5 and take a look at Friday’s early Pk5 at Keeneland, which has a 500k guaranteed pool to kick off Breeders’ Cup Weekend in Lexington.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***
Race 1 Kee (11:30 AM ET) – 125k Nyquist for 2yos at 6 ½ furlongs
We kick off what looks like an extremely tough sequence with a 2yo dash that has plenty of speed, so the stalking style of Bel MSW winner #1 HIGHLY MOTIVATED (7-2) should play well if he can work out a trip from the rail for the potent Brown-Klaravich combo. Cutting back and getting out of G1 company should help #4 UPSTRIKER (6-1), who was sharp pressing and drawing off on debut two-back on debut at Ellis. An outside attack post helps #9 SAFFIA’S DAY (7-2), who impressed dueling early and drawing off late on debut, over the track as well.
Pk5 A horses: 1,4,9 (listed in order of preference)
The class test comes for #8 AWESOME GERRY (6-1), but he’s looked good stalking and winning both starts in South Florida, and should trip out here. Maybe I’m just being stubborn, but I’ll make #6 QUICK TEMPO (5-2) prove that very fast romp last time—at Parx no less—wasn’t a fluke, especially since he won’t clear off on the lead like he did last time.
Pk5 B horses: 8,6
Potential B add-ins: #5 Sir Wellington (20-1), #2 Roderick (10-1)
Race 2 Kee – 125k Songbird for 2yo fillies at 6 ½ furlongs
The sister race to the opener also looks like it could be energetic early, which means #11 FARSIGHTED (5-1) might be able to get first run, and if she can double up on her MSW win last time, she’ll have a huge say. If things fall apart then Brown could be in line for a double with #9 THE GRASS IS BLUE (4-1), who moved way up off the private purchase last time, though I’m not sold on her quality just yet. She’ll have to earn it from the paring lot, but #14 CALIFORNIA LILY (9-2) was awesome winning on debut on the Tapeta at WO after dueling early and drawing off late, and she’s certainly bred for the main track as well. Lastly, I’ll toss in a price player in #4 THINKING (15-1), who is slow on paper but is also improving for Motion, and the aggressive pace will suit her too.
Pk5 A horses: 11,9,14,4
If there one horse who might be able to see out all the speed I’m hoping it’s #6 JOY’S ROCKET (9-2), who comes out of the G1 Frizette and cuts back, though it still won’t be easy, hence the supporting actress spot.
Pk5 B horses: 6
Potential B add-ins: #2 Off We Go (10-1)
Race 3 Kee – 150k Bryan Station 3yos at 1 1/8 miles (turf)
Another toughie, with a very non-descript field where several look the same on paper. I’m intrigued by #3 TAISHAN (12-1), who made his turf debut in the G2 American Turf at CD and was a fast-closing 2nd, and now gets an extra half-furlong to work with. There’s no doubt #2 NO WORD (5-1) hits hard from on or just off the pace, and the cutback from his 2nd in the G1 Belmont Derby probably helps too. If I like Taishan I have to like #6 FANCY LIQUOR (4-1), who beat him at CD and fires every time, though his margin for error, at an underlaid price, is a slim one.
Pk5 A horses: 3,2,6
The cutback out of the Belmont Derby figures to work for #5 PIXELATE (8-1) as well, but he’s a little slower on figures than the trio above, so he’ll have to improve to win. I have no idea what to make of #9 ORDER OF AUSTRAILIA (6-1), and he may well have simply taken an empty stall on the plane from Ireland with his classier stablemates, but it’s Coolmore, O’Brien, and Moore, and Lasix was added here too, and if you toss the soft ground no-show last time, there’s some strong form here to work with.
Pk5 B horses: 5,9
Potential B add-ins: #11 Mo Ready (8-1), #14 Bye Bye Melvin (8-1), #13 Don Juan Kitten (6-1)
Race 4 Kee – 150k McConnell Springs for 3upfm at 6 furlongs
With a trip note on #7 UNHOLY ALLIANCE (9-2), and field I really don’t like, I’ll single her, single I thought the Sar run two-back was really sharp, and she was clearly in too tough in the G2 last time. Her other asset is her tactical speed, as there’s not a lot of it in here and she should trip out nicely from a good attack post.
Pk5 A horses: 7
Clearly the class is #8 WILDWOOD’S BEAUT (9-2), who was in a pair of tough G1’s and wasn’t embarrassed, then didn’t like the Polytrack last time, so she’s got a big chance of bouncing back. Let’s use #6 UNIQUE FACTOR (6-1) too, since she has some class to her as well, and will like the drop.
Pk5 B horses: 8,6 (Please note, to keep the backup ticket down, I’ll be singling #13 Cupid’s Claws in R5)
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Race 5 Kee – 200k G2 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance for 3up at 1 5/8 miles
What a huge effort off the claim from #13 CUPID’S CLAWS (5-1), who aired in the G3 Tokyo City at SA, drew well here, and has the tactical speed to be involved throughout and get first run too. I’ll take the speed of #8 RY’S THE GUY (4-1), who just romped going 1 ½ miles at CD and may clear here. It looks like #5 TENFOLD (5-1) is the best stalker/closer, and that fast 4th in the G3 Pimlico Special would work here, so by using him I have a nice bookend with the top-2.
Pk5 A horses: 13,8,5
Anyone else seems like a reach to me, and it would be the old “Use one or use them all,” so I’ll call it a day on the top line.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #6 You’re to Blame (8-1), #12 Plus Que Parfait (8-1), #3 Rocketry (12-1)
The tickets:
Main Ticket: 1,4,9 with 11,9,14,4 with 3,2,6 with 7 with 13,8,5 = $54
Leg 1 B Backup: 8,6 with 11,9,14,4 with 3,2,6 with 7 with 13,8,5 = $36
Leg 2 B Backup: 1,4,9 with 6 with 3,2,6 with 7 with 13,8,5 = $13.50
Leg 3 B Backup: 1,4,9 with 11,9,14,4 with 5,9 with 7 with 13,8,5 = $36
Leg 4 B Backup: 1,4,9 with 11,9,14,4 with 3,2,6 with 8,6 with 13 = $36
Updated Workout Analysis for Breeders' Cup
November 5, 2020
MICHELLE YU’S NOTEBOOK
Juvenile Turf Sprint
GOLDEN PAL and AFTER FIVE: Oct. 31 on a soggy turf in company together, Golden Pal was full of run early and late, skipping over the surface and geared down to let his Wesley Ward stablemate stay in touch. After Five was green and a little erratic. He finally found a good stride late, but was no match for mate despite a tap on the shoulder.
Juvenile Fillies
DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE: Starts a little slow Oct. 30, but picks it up well, finishing strong with nice extension under an ask, looking very comfortable in the mud.
PRINCESS NOOR: Oct. 30 worked outside of a mate in her usual strangle-hold. Comes wide off the turn and hangs a teeny bit until rider says ‘go.’ Once unleashed, opens up 5 in a matter of strides.
Distaff
SWISS SKYDIVER: Ears up Oct. 31 to begin, shows lovely stride extension and acceleration in the turn. Finishes strong and in hand with reserve and continues on the gallop-out.
MONOMOY GIRL: In company Oct. 31, appearing to want to do more the whole time and waiting for a cue. Snugly held, she easily glides past rival and never lets him by until forced to pull up. Aching to be let run, she even kicks up her heels after settled back to a canter.
CE CE: Couldn't look much better early in an Oct. 30 solo spin with her ears up. Rider asking a little late, but finishing with interest and a good gallop-out.
Millie Ball’s Notebook
Juvenile
CLASSIER: Will be running back in 2 weeks off his debut win, which is not usually Baffert's M.O. (although, Bob won with 5 of the 10 horses he ran this past year on that turn around, suggesting he should consider doing it more often!). He obviously considers his colt talented enough to give him a shot and it is the last chance at a Grade 1 for 2-year-old colts/geldings this year. While Classier habitually gets warm prior to his works and race, he did look more focused working by himself on Nov 1. Sometimes a race will do that. While being given an easy half-mile breeze, almost to the point of being geared down approaching the wire, it stuck me how physically strong and mature he looks for a 2-year-old, even this late in the year. He weighed 1177 pounds the day he broke his maiden; so looks aren't deceiving. There was something about the way Classier won his debut that reminded me of the way American Pharoah won the '14 Del Mar Futurity - both showed speed and carried it. It is a lot to ask of such a lightly raced juvenile, but why not ask the question?
November 5, 2020
MICHELLE YU’S NOTEBOOK
Juvenile Turf Sprint
GOLDEN PAL and AFTER FIVE: Oct. 31 on a soggy turf in company together, Golden Pal was full of run early and late, skipping over the surface and geared down to let his Wesley Ward stablemate stay in touch. After Five was green and a little erratic. He finally found a good stride late, but was no match for mate despite a tap on the shoulder.
Juvenile Fillies
DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE: Starts a little slow Oct. 30, but picks it up well, finishing strong with nice extension under an ask, looking very comfortable in the mud.
PRINCESS NOOR: Oct. 30 worked outside of a mate in her usual strangle-hold. Comes wide off the turn and hangs a teeny bit until rider says ‘go.’ Once unleashed, opens up 5 in a matter of strides.
Distaff
SWISS SKYDIVER: Ears up Oct. 31 to begin, shows lovely stride extension and acceleration in the turn. Finishes strong and in hand with reserve and continues on the gallop-out.
MONOMOY GIRL: In company Oct. 31, appearing to want to do more the whole time and waiting for a cue. Snugly held, she easily glides past rival and never lets him by until forced to pull up. Aching to be let run, she even kicks up her heels after settled back to a canter.
CE CE: Couldn't look much better early in an Oct. 30 solo spin with her ears up. Rider asking a little late, but finishing with interest and a good gallop-out.
Millie Ball’s Notebook
Juvenile
CLASSIER: Will be running back in 2 weeks off his debut win, which is not usually Baffert's M.O. (although, Bob won with 5 of the 10 horses he ran this past year on that turn around, suggesting he should consider doing it more often!). He obviously considers his colt talented enough to give him a shot and it is the last chance at a Grade 1 for 2-year-old colts/geldings this year. While Classier habitually gets warm prior to his works and race, he did look more focused working by himself on Nov 1. Sometimes a race will do that. While being given an easy half-mile breeze, almost to the point of being geared down approaching the wire, it stuck me how physically strong and mature he looks for a 2-year-old, even this late in the year. He weighed 1177 pounds the day he broke his maiden; so looks aren't deceiving. There was something about the way Classier won his debut that reminded me of the way American Pharoah won the '14 Del Mar Futurity - both showed speed and carried it. It is a lot to ask of such a lightly raced juvenile, but why not ask the question?
Eddie Olczyk's Breeders' Cup Playbook
November 5, 2020
FRIDAY BANKROLL BUILDER
Race 4 // McConnell Springs Stakes // 1:15 pm ET
#7 UNHOLY ALLIANCE (9-2 morning line) is my key, likely to get a great set-up after chasing Filly & Mare Sprint contender Come Dancing at Saratoga. She should sit just behind the speed for a jockey-trainer combination you have to consider. I’d be happy at a price around 5-1.
Win: #7 UNHOLY ALLIANCE
Exacta Box: #7 UNHOLY ALLIANCE, #6 UNIQUE FACTOR, #9 ROYAL CHARLOTTE
November 5, 2020
FRIDAY BANKROLL BUILDER
Race 4 // McConnell Springs Stakes // 1:15 pm ET
#7 UNHOLY ALLIANCE (9-2 morning line) is my key, likely to get a great set-up after chasing Filly & Mare Sprint contender Come Dancing at Saratoga. She should sit just behind the speed for a jockey-trainer combination you have to consider. I’d be happy at a price around 5-1.
Win: #7 UNHOLY ALLIANCE
Exacta Box: #7 UNHOLY ALLIANCE, #6 UNIQUE FACTOR, #9 ROYAL CHARLOTTE
Jon White's 2020 Breeders' Cup Picks
November 4, 2020 | By Jon White
$1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF SPRINT (FRIDAY)
1. GOLDEN PAL (8-5 on the morning line): Believe he wins despite post 14; Ward praises him
2. BODENHEIMER (8-1): Lone loss by WA-bred came on soft ground
3. AFTER FIVE (6-1): Maiden by The Factor could be a factor
Nice-price danger: COUNTRY FINAL (15-1): Interesting at 15-1 ML, especially with Rosario
Note: Despite drawing post 14, Golden Pal is my most probable winner at this year’s Breeders’ Cup. Yes, I would like him much better if he had not drawn the outside post. But I do still see him flexing his muscles vs. these juveniles. Trainer Wesley Ward has raved about Golden Pal for months.
I think this is a difficult Breeders’ Cup to come up with a most probable winner. This is the least confidence I’ve ever had in picking a most probable Breeders’ Cup winner.
Many understandably would choose Jackie’s Warrior in the Juvenile as the most probable winner at this year’s Breeders’ Cup. But in addition to my decision to not make Jackie’s Warrior my most probable Breeders’ Cup winner, I am not even picking him to win his race.
My most probable winner during the Nov. 6-7 racing at Keeneland actually is Nashville (4-5 morning line) in Saturday’s first race, the Perryville Stakes. But in terms of the 14 Breeders’ Cup events, Golden Pal is my choice as this year’s most probable winner at Keeneland this Friday and Saturday.
My most probable Breeders’ Cup winner has won in 12 of the 16 last years. These are my most probable Breeders’ Cup winners going back to 2004:
2019 Midnight Bisou (finished second)
2018 Newspaperofrecord in the Juvenile Fillies Turf (won)
2017 Bolt d’Oro in the Juvenile (finished third)
2016 Dortmund in the Dirt Mile (finished fourth)
2015 Songbird in the Juvenile Fillies (won)
2014 Goldencents in the Dirt Mile (won)
2013 Wise Dan in the Mile (won)
2012 Groupie Doll in the Filly & Mare Sprint (won)
2011 Goldikova in the Mile (won)
2010 Goldikova in the Mile (won)
2009 Zenyatta in the Classic (won)
2008 Zenyatta in the Ladies’ Classic (won)
2007 Midnight Lute in the Sprint (won)
2006 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (won)
2005 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (finished second)
2004 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (won)
$1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF (FRIDAY)
1. CADILLAC (6-1): Euro is 2 for 2 when racing around a turn
2. GRETZKY THE GREAT (8-1): Achieved hat trick with G1 Summer victory
3. BATTLEGROUND (6-1): O’Brien has 4 BCJT wins; dam BC Turf winner
Nice-price danger: NEW MANDATE (12-1): Threat with remarkable Dettori as pilot
$2 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES (FRIDAY)
1. PRINCESS NOOR (9-5): Yet to be tested; must improve soft figs
2. DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE (5-2): Frizette triumph yielded best Beyer of these
3. SIMPLY RAVISHING (5-2): Simply a major player here off Alcibiades
Nice-price danger: VEQUIST (8-1): Was 9-10 favorite when 2nd in Frizette
$1 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES TURF (FRIDAY)
1. CAMPANELLE (4-1): Victorious in U.S., England and France
2. PLUM ALI (4-1): Undefeated in 3 starts; figs are improving
2. AUNT PEARL (3-1): Won G2 Jessamine smartly on Keeneland turf
Nice-price danger: MADONE (10-1): Undefeated stakes winner from SoCal
$2 MILLION JUVENILE (FRIDAY)
1. ESSENTIAL QUALITY (4-1): Dandy G1 victory going 2 turns at Keeneland
2. JACKIE’S WARRIOR (7-5): Favorite has spotless record; now tries 2 turns
3. REINVESTMENT RISK (9-2): Third try the charm vs. Jackie’s Warrior?
Nice-price danger: SITTIN ON GO (12-1): Big late kick to win G3 Iroquois going away
November 4, 2020 | By Jon White
$1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF SPRINT (FRIDAY)
1. GOLDEN PAL (8-5 on the morning line): Believe he wins despite post 14; Ward praises him
2. BODENHEIMER (8-1): Lone loss by WA-bred came on soft ground
3. AFTER FIVE (6-1): Maiden by The Factor could be a factor
Nice-price danger: COUNTRY FINAL (15-1): Interesting at 15-1 ML, especially with Rosario
Note: Despite drawing post 14, Golden Pal is my most probable winner at this year’s Breeders’ Cup. Yes, I would like him much better if he had not drawn the outside post. But I do still see him flexing his muscles vs. these juveniles. Trainer Wesley Ward has raved about Golden Pal for months.
I think this is a difficult Breeders’ Cup to come up with a most probable winner. This is the least confidence I’ve ever had in picking a most probable Breeders’ Cup winner.
Many understandably would choose Jackie’s Warrior in the Juvenile as the most probable winner at this year’s Breeders’ Cup. But in addition to my decision to not make Jackie’s Warrior my most probable Breeders’ Cup winner, I am not even picking him to win his race.
My most probable winner during the Nov. 6-7 racing at Keeneland actually is Nashville (4-5 morning line) in Saturday’s first race, the Perryville Stakes. But in terms of the 14 Breeders’ Cup events, Golden Pal is my choice as this year’s most probable winner at Keeneland this Friday and Saturday.
My most probable Breeders’ Cup winner has won in 12 of the 16 last years. These are my most probable Breeders’ Cup winners going back to 2004:
2019 Midnight Bisou (finished second)
2018 Newspaperofrecord in the Juvenile Fillies Turf (won)
2017 Bolt d’Oro in the Juvenile (finished third)
2016 Dortmund in the Dirt Mile (finished fourth)
2015 Songbird in the Juvenile Fillies (won)
2014 Goldencents in the Dirt Mile (won)
2013 Wise Dan in the Mile (won)
2012 Groupie Doll in the Filly & Mare Sprint (won)
2011 Goldikova in the Mile (won)
2010 Goldikova in the Mile (won)
2009 Zenyatta in the Classic (won)
2008 Zenyatta in the Ladies’ Classic (won)
2007 Midnight Lute in the Sprint (won)
2006 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (won)
2005 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (finished second)
2004 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (won)
$1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF (FRIDAY)
1. CADILLAC (6-1): Euro is 2 for 2 when racing around a turn
2. GRETZKY THE GREAT (8-1): Achieved hat trick with G1 Summer victory
3. BATTLEGROUND (6-1): O’Brien has 4 BCJT wins; dam BC Turf winner
Nice-price danger: NEW MANDATE (12-1): Threat with remarkable Dettori as pilot
$2 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES (FRIDAY)
1. PRINCESS NOOR (9-5): Yet to be tested; must improve soft figs
2. DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE (5-2): Frizette triumph yielded best Beyer of these
3. SIMPLY RAVISHING (5-2): Simply a major player here off Alcibiades
Nice-price danger: VEQUIST (8-1): Was 9-10 favorite when 2nd in Frizette
$1 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES TURF (FRIDAY)
1. CAMPANELLE (4-1): Victorious in U.S., England and France
2. PLUM ALI (4-1): Undefeated in 3 starts; figs are improving
2. AUNT PEARL (3-1): Won G2 Jessamine smartly on Keeneland turf
Nice-price danger: MADONE (10-1): Undefeated stakes winner from SoCal
$2 MILLION JUVENILE (FRIDAY)
1. ESSENTIAL QUALITY (4-1): Dandy G1 victory going 2 turns at Keeneland
2. JACKIE’S WARRIOR (7-5): Favorite has spotless record; now tries 2 turns
3. REINVESTMENT RISK (9-2): Third try the charm vs. Jackie’s Warrior?
Nice-price danger: SITTIN ON GO (12-1): Big late kick to win G3 Iroquois going away
Bob Valentino
My freebie for Friday comes out west as the Spartans and the Aztecs play their Mountain West meeting Under the posted price.
Both teams have a pair of games behind them and both teams sport identical 1-1 Over/Under marks with both school's season openers holding Under and both landing Over on Halloween.
I see this one playing out to be a game that lands just Under the total based on recent series trends in this rivalry.
Last year saw a 27-17 final score in favor of San Diego State in a game that easily landed Under the posted price. That Under moved the series numbers to 2 in a row Low and 5 of the last 6 Under the total now since the 2014 campaign.
The Aztecs come into this game with 9 straight games since last season of holding their opponents to 17 points or less, it's a streak that started with last year's meeting against the Spartans. The Under is 7-2 in those last 9 games played and I like the Under to come through once again tonight.
D* SAN JOSE STATE-SAN DIEGO STATE UNDER
My freebie for Friday comes out west as the Spartans and the Aztecs play their Mountain West meeting Under the posted price.
Both teams have a pair of games behind them and both teams sport identical 1-1 Over/Under marks with both school's season openers holding Under and both landing Over on Halloween.
I see this one playing out to be a game that lands just Under the total based on recent series trends in this rivalry.
Last year saw a 27-17 final score in favor of San Diego State in a game that easily landed Under the posted price. That Under moved the series numbers to 2 in a row Low and 5 of the last 6 Under the total now since the 2014 campaign.
The Aztecs come into this game with 9 straight games since last season of holding their opponents to 17 points or less, it's a streak that started with last year's meeting against the Spartans. The Under is 7-2 in those last 9 games played and I like the Under to come through once again tonight.
D* SAN JOSE STATE-SAN DIEGO STATE UNDER
Scott Rickenbach
Nov 06 '20, 12:30 PM in 3h
Soccer | Burnley vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Play on: UNDER 2½ -115
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200002 Friday Free Pick UNDER 2.5 goals in Brighton & Hove Albion vs Burnley @ 12:30 PM ET - Short and sweet here. Each club is struggling and have combined for just one win this season. That should lead to a tight battle here with goals at a premium. Burnley views this as a very winnable match even though they are on enemy pitch. As for Brighton & Hove, they are known for playing tough defense in front of their own goal and are likely to be tough to score on. This is particularly true since Burnley has totaled only 3 goals in 6 matches on the season! Brighton has only scored 4 goals in 3 home matches this season! A 1-0 game or 1-1 draw would not be a surprise here for sure. Perhaps a 2-0 game at most. That should be the end result here though as this a fixture that struggles to get to a pair of goals. Two clubs struggling badly for wins sets up a fierce low-scoring battle here. Free Pick UNDER 2.5 goals in Brighton & Hove
Nov 06 '20, 12:30 PM in 3h
Soccer | Burnley vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Play on: UNDER 2½ -115
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200002 Friday Free Pick UNDER 2.5 goals in Brighton & Hove Albion vs Burnley @ 12:30 PM ET - Short and sweet here. Each club is struggling and have combined for just one win this season. That should lead to a tight battle here with goals at a premium. Burnley views this as a very winnable match even though they are on enemy pitch. As for Brighton & Hove, they are known for playing tough defense in front of their own goal and are likely to be tough to score on. This is particularly true since Burnley has totaled only 3 goals in 6 matches on the season! Brighton has only scored 4 goals in 3 home matches this season! A 1-0 game or 1-1 draw would not be a surprise here for sure. Perhaps a 2-0 game at most. That should be the end result here though as this a fixture that struggles to get to a pair of goals. Two clubs struggling badly for wins sets up a fierce low-scoring battle here. Free Pick UNDER 2.5 goals in Brighton & Hove
Red Dog Sports
Nov 06 '20, 2:45 PM in 5h
Soccer | Udinese vs Sassuolo Calcio
Play on: Sassuolo Calcio +103 at pinnacle
Sassuolo +103
The free soccer play takes place on Friday in Italy.
Udinese 1
Sassuolo 2
Udinese is #19 in the league with -5 goal difference while the home team is #2 with a +9 goal difference. Sassuolo is 4-0-1 in their last 5 matches.
Nov 06 '20, 2:45 PM in 5h
Soccer | Udinese vs Sassuolo Calcio
Play on: Sassuolo Calcio +103 at pinnacle
Sassuolo +103
The free soccer play takes place on Friday in Italy.
Udinese 1
Sassuolo 2
Udinese is #19 in the league with -5 goal difference while the home team is #2 with a +9 goal difference. Sassuolo is 4-0-1 in their last 5 matches.
Rob Vinciletti
Nov 06 '20, 3:00 PM in 5h
Soccer | Salernitana vs SPAL
Play on: Draw +210 at pinnacle
** Friday Comp Play **
The Friday Serie B Comp Play for Friday is for a Draw at +210 in the Salemitana at SPAL Match at 3:00 eastern. SPAL is ranked 7th in the table and has been very inconsistent. Here at home they have just 3 wins in 11 matches along with 5 losses and 3 draws. Salemitana is 4th 4th in the table with 11 wins, 8 losses and 5 draws. They will be in this game but we cant see them winning. The value is really that both these teams wind up even in full time. Play this match to a draw. Rob V- GC Sports
Nov 06 '20, 3:00 PM in 5h
Soccer | Salernitana vs SPAL
Play on: Draw +210 at pinnacle
** Friday Comp Play **
The Friday Serie B Comp Play for Friday is for a Draw at +210 in the Salemitana at SPAL Match at 3:00 eastern. SPAL is ranked 7th in the table and has been very inconsistent. Here at home they have just 3 wins in 11 matches along with 5 losses and 3 draws. Salemitana is 4th 4th in the table with 11 wins, 8 losses and 5 draws. They will be in this game but we cant see them winning. The value is really that both these teams wind up even in full time. Play this match to a draw. Rob V- GC Sports
