early random thoughts and possible plays....
- Thiago Santos - ITD -125..lol it's -125 for KO or ITD, a first afaik
(I like Teixeira, but his strategy has him taking too much damage directly to his chin. Sure, Cutelaba and Anthony Smith hit hard, but they are nowhere near the lethality of Santos' power. Santos has beaten incredibly durable fighters into submission before (Eryk Anders), while also turning off the lights of elite opposition (Jack Hermansson, Jan Błachowicz). There has been a long enough stretch for the Brazilian to have recovered from his injuries, and I can't see how he doesn't eventually crack Teixeira's chin. Only issue could be Santos' knee if for some reason it dont hold up or he's to worried about it...not likely for this warrior)
- Tanner Boser by decision +160 (This fight could be really, really ugly. Andre is horribly defensive while Boser's power remains questionable. Boser has the physical ability to slip in and out the pocket, picking away at Arlovski like a bird of Prey, while he waits for a counter but his age leaves him unable to land)
- Raoni Barcelos by Sub +180 / ITD +100 (Surely a win for Barcelos on Saturday would be enough to finally push the Brazilian towards the rankings. Barcelos' power striking, competent wrestling and incredible submission game should leave Taha beaten on all fronts)
- Ian Heinisch +105 / Decision (With an athletic advantage and crisper distance striking, Allen should technically be able to keep Heinisch at bay on the feet. More likely, the intense volume striking and pressure of Heinisch will force Allen to expend a lot of energy early. With Allen gassed during the later rounds, Heinisch will be able to incorporate his dominant wrestling with less threat from Allen's submission game)
- Xiaonan Yan -170 likely decision (Gadelha has the stronger resume and certainly an incredible advantage in the grappling department, but her conditioning issues will be her ultimate downfall. Yan is a cardio freak, and if she can avoid being stopped in the first round, she will only have to worry about the odd power counter strike by Gadelha for the remainder of the fight)
- Giga Chikadze by KO -165 (Simmons is a regional fighter who is kill or be killed with his sloppy power striking. Chikadze is a fabulously polished kickboxer who has picked apart decent UFC level competition. Chikadze can be hit, sure, but not often enough for Simmons to be considered a threat)
- Trevon Giles -100 (Lewis may have honed his craft over 2020 and began to use his length to his advantage with distance striking. More likely, Lewis will continue to willingly walk into the clinch, in which Giles can secure an easy takedown and ride to a decision win)
- Alexander Romanov -460 / KO -360 (Romanov is a hilariously limited fighter with a sketchy record, but his style of fighting should be more than enough to handle the ancient bones of de Lima)
- Darren Elkins ... (Elkins is fairly broken at this point, but he has always been able to thrive despite his clear limitations. Garagorri is a green fighter who has no real experience at the top level, ignoring his first-round capitulation to Ricardo Ramos. Elkins oozes quality in comparison, and will be able to dominate in the grappling department)
- Max Griffin ... (Brahimaj is a first-round power wrestler who expends it all in search of a submission. At the regional level this has sufficed, but against a quality experienced opponent in Max Griffin, he will be punished hard on the feet in the remaining two rounds.)
- Gustavo Lopez -135 and probably ITD (Both men are proficient enough on the ground to avoid a submission, but Lopez is the younger man with an extra sting in his punch. Also, Birchak has taken this fight on four days notice.)
It is -230 but ITD (inside the distance) is -125 and it's the same for KO, thats how I will likely play it, although I may take some at -230 as well.
Line is still the same at BAS https://wager.betanysports.eu/livelines/
If you ain't watching tape. Garagorri isn't very good. He is coming off a 1st round sub loss to Ramos, who is slick, and was able to take him down twice easily. Garagorri also got taken down four times against a Peruvian who is no longer in the UFC in his debut. Before the UFC he has only fought cans in South America.
Elkins has gotten his ass kicked vs top guys sure, but if you watch his last fight you can actually argue he won (6/18 media members did, I thought he did too, but his bloody face probably swayed the judges and how you remember the fight going.) Anyway, in the first round Elkins took Landwher down impressively and went hunting for chokes immediately and almost locked in a front choke, but Landwher is an actually a good counter grappler.
Totally possible Elkins loses but 100% he is getting a takedown in the first, at +450 (1st rnd finish) or +320 by sub...its a juicy bet. I can see Garagorri getting subbed at that time just like his last fight....or maybe even a later sub although the "Damage's" blood will make things slippery.
Elkins has gotten his ass kicked vs top guys sure, but if you watch his last fight you can actually argue he won (6/18 media members did, I thought he did too, but his bloody face probably swayed the judges and how you remember the fight going.) Anyway, in the first round Elkins took Landwher down impressively and went hunting for chokes immediately and almost locked in a front choke, but Landwher is an actually a good counter grappler.
Totally possible Elkins loses but 100% he is getting a takedown in the first, at +450 (1st rnd finish) or +320 by sub...its a juicy bet. I can see Garagorri getting subbed at that time just like his last fight....or maybe even a later sub although the "Damage's" blood will make things slippery.
Love this next one, maybe surest play of the night but the huge juice saps most of the value
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[FONT="]well damn, shoulda done 1st round finish...would have paid much better
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[FONT="]pretty much all favorites so far...may be due for upset but can't see it coming next[/FONT]
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[FONT="]pretty much all favorites so far...may be due for upset but can't see it coming next[/FONT]
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Very durable fighters
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