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Thread: Waiting on Spreads

  1. #1 Waiting on Spreads 
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    Hi everyone.

    We are just waiting on the spreads to come out for College Basketball first couple of days. Then we can post some predictions
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  2. #2  
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    What does the program base the outcome on if no games have been played?
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  3. #3  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exploited17 View Post
    What does the program base the outcome on if no games have been played?
    Well we start each season with what we know which was last years ending statistics for each team. Obviously teams take wild swings at College sports from one year to another and we might expect a team like Kansas State or Temple to dip, but others like Texas to improve. We won't know until the games are played, but we can adjust ending teams strengths from last season for things we know and the things we find out will be adjusted on the fly. We do better as the season goes, but nothing is a coin flip out of the gate because of the Ripple Effect.

    More About the Ripple Effect?

    We believe this is the true power of the FTIMU and why it picks winners at the rate it does. What we call the Ripple Effect. Imagine each game played as two colored rocks. We toss those rocks into the water and one will make a bigger splash (by winning the game's stats) and the other causes a smaller ripple. Now we enter all those stats from the game into the FTIMU (computer program) and it goes to work. Giving each team a power ranking number that it will later turn back into a projected score for predicting outcomes.


    Example: Lets say "your College Basketball team" loses to Gonzaga by 30 points (we will just use points as an easy example). No shame in that. The FTIMU now uses the Ripple Effect to connect as many teams to this one games result (and for every game) updating teams connected in any way to the ripple.


    So now every team "your team" played and beat, we can assume would have also lost to Gonzaga even though those teams didn't play Gonzaga. Because of the Ripple Effect we are going to score them as if they did. Also every team "your team" beat, and any team those teams beat we can assume they would have lost to Gonzaga, and obviously even worse as the ripple grows bigger.


    So now every team "your team" lost to, we can assume they would have played Gonzaga better than the 30 points "your team" lost to them by. Maybe they would have even beaten Gonzaga. The ripple just keeps going until every connection is made.


    This is powerful. For a sport like College Basketball that has over 350 teams and only plays 30 games schedules, the average team plays one-tenth of all the other teams. However, with the power of the Ripple Effect, all teams soon become connected. Imagine giving every team a ranking almost every game. That is how we built the FTIMU. Every game it learns even more. Every season it improved, picking more winners than the previous year.
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  4. #4  
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    Best of luck. Looking forward to it.
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  5. #5  
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    Sounds like data may need a few weeks but will be looking for results...Good Luck this season.
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