MistaFlava's NFL Week 11 POWER SELECTIONS (System Plays Inside)

MistaFlava · Nov 19, 2020

MistaFlava's 2020 NFL Football Record: 55-35-1 (+154.50 Units)

MistaFlava's 2020 NFL ATS (Regular) Record: 44-27-1 ATS (+105.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2020 NFL O/U Record: 7-6 (+4.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2020 NFL *Big Plays*: 4-2 ATS (+45.00 Units)

Things were not working well for me so I had to go back to pure capping and designing unique systems and working hours through the night to getting back to what got me successful in the first place. True capping.

NFL

*System tracking started 5 weeks ago so these numbers are over last 5 weeks

VERSION A: 41-12 ATS (77%)

VERSION B: 31-9 ATS (78%)

***If you bet $1000 on each play you'd be up $39,680 (Version A) and $30,010.00 (Version B)

It looks right now like both Versions are very successful (Version A is 77% and Version B is 78%) since I started tracking them and posting most of the picks here. I have been explaining to all those who want to know in DMs how my suggested lines work and I've taken the time to explain the best I can. I am thinking of doing a couple of Youtube videos to make it easier for everyone.

GENERAL IDEA: I've got some number crunchers that come up with 4 suggested lines for each NFL Game. Based on those lines I compare them to the actual game lines 5-10 minutes before kickoff and go based on that. Version A uses all four suggested lines combined and put into an average versus the actual game line. Version B uses all four suggested lines individually compared to the actual game line. If one of the suggested lines doesn't match the actual game line, it's NOT a play. If all four match, it's a play. If any line has a differential of 5.0 or more it becomes a FADE PLAY. I have decided to start posting suggested lines on here (some early, some right before game as a I drop my picks) and see how that goes and then readers can make their own conclusions before actually waiting for my pick.

Why does waiting until 10 minutes before kickoff matter? It matters because the FINAL line is what we're looking for or as close as possible. Good example was a few weeks ago when Atlanta was -4 all morning which was a play on Denver +4 but when it moved to Atlanta -4.5 it became a play on Atlanta because of the FADE Angle as the differential moved to 5.0 points or more.

***REMINDER: All plays will be posted 5-10 minutes prior to kickoff. This is due to the line I use being part of the system.

*If you have any questions shoot me a DM. I see them a lot better than I see posts on my thread.

HOPE EVERYONE AT THE RX IS STAYING SAFE AND HEALTHY!

:toast:

max05 · Nov 19, 2020

thanks MF

MistaFlava · Nov 19, 2020

adding...

Thursday, November 19

Arizona at Seattle

Suggested Line 1: Seattle -0.61
Suggested Line 2: Seattle -1.07
Suggested Line 3: Seattle -2.49
Suggested Line 4: Arizona -1.63

Averaged Combined Line: Seattle -0.6

Actual Game Line: Seattle -3

PLAY: Arizona Cardinals +3

The system, who missed on both Primetime Games in Week 11, likes the Cardinals tonight in the variety of Version A and Version B. The Seattle Seahawks are in one of the worst stretches I've seen them in for quite some time. They come into this game having lost three of their last four games their only win was against an injury riddled San Francisco team a few weeks ago. Their losses were to LA Rams, Buffalo and this same Arizona team. I'm starting to think there is something wrong with the Seahawks and it's just being in a funk. The Cardinals beat the Bills on Sunday via the first Hail Mary completion of 2020 and it was an incredible throw by Kyler Murray and an even more incredible catch by DeAndre Hopkins to win the game. A lot of people say Arizona got lucky but they were winning that game with less than a minute to go before the Bills scored a touchdown to take the lead. This should be another close one. Arizona comes into this game 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games as an Underdog and they are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a Road Underdog. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Seattle and the Underdog is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Seattle is only 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus NFC West opponents and only 1-6-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Cardinals. The free fall will continue for Pistol Pete and his Seahawks tonight.

Trend of the Game: The Underdog is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams.

:toast:

emtyefd · Nov 19, 2020

thank you!

MistaFlava · Nov 19, 2020

I guess that was a big trap play. If the losing streak for PRIMETIME games continues I might have to switch things up a bit but we'll see how rest of week goes. Looking for a big day Sunday. Congrats to all winners tonight regardless of what you had and see you all for some College ball the next few days!

:toast:

Biz · Nov 19, 2020

That game could have gone either way.

Arizona down 2 takes a ridiculous grounding penalty, then a holding in end zone for safety.

Driving at the end couldn't finish the drive.

I wouldn't change a thing. Good Luck this weekend.

exploited17 · Nov 20, 2020

Biz said:
That game could have gone either way.

Arizona down 2 takes a ridiculous grounding penalty, then a holding in end zone for safety.

Driving at the end couldn't finish the drive.

I wouldn't change a thing. Good Luck this weekend.

Exactly
You are not winning every game
If you get 60% or so that is unreal. Right now you appear to be ahead of even that

lakrfan2000 · Nov 20, 2020

Originally Posted by Biz
That game could have gone either way.

Arizona down 2 takes a ridiculous grounding penalty, then a holding in end zone for safety.

Driving at the end couldn't finish the drive.

I wouldn't change a thing. Good Luck this weekend.

Flav, Ever since I've been investing in sports, I have historically not faired well on Thursdays. It's just what it is, and I usually make it up on the weekends. You'll do the same and I'm looking forward to it. Thanks for all you do for me and the entire forum! Happy Friday Eve, my Brother!

PullTheSlak · Nov 20, 2020

Keep up the solid capping, MF!

BigLouReturns · Nov 20, 2020

Biz said:
That game could have gone either way.

Arizona down 2 takes a ridiculous grounding penalty, then a holding in end zone for safety.

Driving at the end couldn't finish the drive.

I wouldn't change a thing. Good Luck this weekend.

In what universe was that a close game? Seattle needed to run a balanced offense to control the turnovers, stop the Cardinals run game on defense and make Kyler Murray beat them with his arm rather then his legs. Mission accomplished. AZ never once had the lead and was playing uphill the entire game.

varkeyboy · Nov 20, 2020

Big Lou Returns said:
In what universe was that a close game? Seattle needed to run a balanced offense to control the turnovers, stop the Cardinals run game on defense and make Kyler Murray beat them with his arm rather then his legs. Mission accomplished. AZ never once had the lead and was playing uphill the entire game.

You must've been watching Western Michigan beat up on Central Michigan the other night.......THAT was not a close game.

This one was well w/in reach for Arizona the entire time.

Biz · Nov 20, 2020

Big Lou Returns said:
In what universe was that a close game? Seattle needed to run a balanced offense to control the turnovers, stop the Cardinals run game on defense and make Kyler Murray beat them with his arm rather then his legs. Mission accomplished. AZ never once had the lead and was playing uphill the entire game.

What planet were you watching the game???

It was a 2 point game, Arizona ball, 9 minutes left.

Later it is a one score game with Arizona driving for the tying score.

Never having the lead doesn't equate to "not close".

How in the fuck is that not a close game??

Your math teacher was over paid.

BigLouReturns · Nov 21, 2020

Show me one point in that game where the Cardinals were in control...

exploited17 · Nov 21, 2020

Big Lou Returns said:
Show me one point in that game where the Cardinals were in control...

Who said they were in control?
They were getting 3 points. In the second half it was a one posession game almost the entire way. Including twice a 2 point game
They were driving down 7 Could have easily gone to OT in which Seattle was unlikely to win by more than 3. Cards could have scored and went for two making it a win or a 2 point loss giving them the cover
Seattle only had 37 more yards in the game

Yes...could have gone either way
But Seattle was the right side I would say if yoyu want to argue that

Biz · Nov 21, 2020

Big Lou Returns said:
Show me one point in that game where the Cardinals were in control...

In control??

Again, and its really not that difficult for most people to comprehend.

They were COVERING with 9 minutes left AND THEY HAD THE BALL.

WTF are you talking about not close??

A 2 point margin isn't close to this guy. Its a 3 point spread, down 2 with the ball, 9 minutes left.

But the game wasn't close.

LOL ok pal.

MistaFlava · Nov 22, 2020

Alright everyone, what a day in college yesterday going 8-2 ATS on the week with the revamped system. As previously mentioned here I am going to keep an eye on Primetime Games with the 0-3 streak we are on with this system and see if some values need to be adjusted for the suggested line. I will still post the plays here but tread lightly and maybe moving forward I'll make some changes.

Suggested Lines for 1pm ET Games

Cincinnati at Washington

Suggested Line 1: Cincinnati -2.13
Suggested Line 2: Cincinnati -1.37
Suggested Line 3: Cincinnati -1.02
Suggested Line 4: Cincinnati -3.45

Averaged Combined Line: Cincinnati -2.0

Atlanta at New Orleans

Suggested Line 1: New Orleans -7.12
Suggested Line 2: New Orleans -7.24
Suggested Line 3: New Orleans -7.84
Suggested Line 4: New Orleans -6.85

Average Combined Line: New Orleans -7.3

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

Suggested Line 1: Pittsburgh -13.91
Suggested Line 2: Pittsburgh -12.53
Suggested Line 3: Pittsburgh -14.67
Suggested Line 4: Pittsburgh -15.42

Average Combined Line: Pittsburgh -14.1

Philadelphia at Cleveland

Suggested Line 1: Cleveland -1.63
Suggested Line 2: Cleveland -0.07
Suggested Line 3: Cleveland -1.63
Suggested Line 4: Cleveland -3.31

Average Combined Line: Cleveland -1.7

Detroit at Carolina

Suggested Line 1: Carolina -0.39
Suggested Line 2: Carolina -1.65
Suggested Line 3: Detroit -0.18
Suggested Line 4: Detroit -0.24

Average Combined Line: Carolina -0.4

Tennessee at Baltimore

Suggested Line 1: Baltimore -4.50
Suggested Line 2: Baltimore -6.68
Suggested Line 3: Baltimore -4.70
Suggested Line 4: Baltimore -3.19

Average Combined Line: Baltimore -4.8

New England at Houston

Suggested Line 1: New England -3.89
Suggested Line 2: New England -3.72
Suggested Line 3: New England -4.35
Suggested Line 4: New England -3.61

Average Combined Line: New England -3.9

As always I will be posting the final plays for Version A and Version B around 10 minutes before kickoff. They are slightly different but very similar. I used to only post one or the other based on which was doing better but might as well post all the plays here. You can choose which system to follow. Don't forget there are a few system rules I don't post on here so wait for the posted picks and use the suggested numbers as a guideline. See you all around 12:50pm ET in a couple hours time.

:toast:

PullTheSlak · Nov 22, 2020

Looking fwd to it, MF!!

buckshotbookies · Nov 22, 2020

Great work as always mr flava

cuden556 · Nov 22, 2020

stand by. lock and load. yesterday was amazing. you save me yesterday after my biggest pick on nebraska. Thankyou)(&

JohnnyMags · Nov 22, 2020

G/L Sir

MistaFlava's NFL Week 11 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (System Plays Inside)

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MistaFlava's NFL Week 11 POWER SELECTIONS (System Plays Inside)