Going with another play tonight with a Minnesota connection from another great player near the end of his career. He went to a high school about 2 miles from me. Some of my friends growing up went to Holy Angels High School too. His dad had a sports talk show in Minneapolis, and he wanted me to advertise on his show. Both are not only great players, but they are great guys.
Any guesses?
Kyle Rudolph was nominated in 2019 from the Vikings organization for the Walt Payton Man of the Year Award and Larry Fitzgerald Jr. won the award in 2017. For me it is much easier to root for good guys to succeed. So tonight, I will be rooting for Larry to have a good night and get over 3.5 catches.
Let’s go over some of the reasons I like this play besides the fact that Larry is a great guy that plays the game the right way.
Larry is similar to Kyle in that he is getting near the end of his career but that doesn’t mean he still doesn’t have some game. Tonight, we need 4 catches to win.
On his career Larry has averaged 5.5 catches a game.
Just 4 years ago in 2016 he averaged 6.7 catches and 3 years ago, 6.8 catches a game. So not that long ago a number of 3.5 catches would be close to a lock to the over.
The last two years he averaged 4.3 and 4.7 catches a game. Those are still pretty solid numbers.
This year he has been target 47 times and has 35 catches in 9 games (so he catches it when he gets a chance) and averages 3.9 catches a game. In 5 of the 9 games he has had 4 or more catches.
There was one game this year when Arizona basically didn’t throw the ball and that was against Dallas when the won 38 to 10 and there were only 9 completions by Arizona players on 24 passes.
Now let’s go to the game and the opponent tonight Seattle. The line is 2.5 and the total is 57. The only way to get to 57 is by throwing the ball. Who has the worse pass defense in the league? Seattle and they give up 353 yards per game. Seattle is the fourth best rushing defense in the league giving up 95 yards per game.
The best offensive team is Arizona with 425 yards per game with 256 passing and 168 running. The running numbers are a little skewed. Drake leads the team with 612 yards, Murray is second with 604 and Edmonds has 302. Murray yards mostly come from passing plays that turn into scrambles. So, I think they will not run the ball well and will be passing.
In terms of head to head match ups. Last year in Murray’s fourth NFL game they lost to Seattle 27-10 and were behind 20-3 at half. Murray only completed 22 passes. Fitzgerald was targeted 5 times and had 5 catches.
The second game last year was in Seattle and the results were different. Arizona won 27-13. They ran the ball 40 times for 253 yards with Drake going off for 166 yards. Arizona only threw the ball 27 times and had 15 completions. Larry was targeted 7 times with 4 receptions.
On to 2020. We add Hopkins to the mix and Murray with more experience. Fitzgerald and Hopkins account for 48% of the completions so far this year. Hopkins leading the team with 67 catches and Larry has 35 catches so he is no longer the primary receiver.
They played Seattle 3 weeks ago in a 37-34 thriller in overtime. Larry was targeted 8 times in that game with 8 receptions. Hopkins 12 times with 10 receptions. I am expecting similar results tonight and Larry goes over 3.5 receptions.
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
Any guesses?
Kyle Rudolph was nominated in 2019 from the Vikings organization for the Walt Payton Man of the Year Award and Larry Fitzgerald Jr. won the award in 2017. For me it is much easier to root for good guys to succeed. So tonight, I will be rooting for Larry to have a good night and get over 3.5 catches.
Let’s go over some of the reasons I like this play besides the fact that Larry is a great guy that plays the game the right way.
Larry is similar to Kyle in that he is getting near the end of his career but that doesn’t mean he still doesn’t have some game. Tonight, we need 4 catches to win.
On his career Larry has averaged 5.5 catches a game.
Just 4 years ago in 2016 he averaged 6.7 catches and 3 years ago, 6.8 catches a game. So not that long ago a number of 3.5 catches would be close to a lock to the over.
The last two years he averaged 4.3 and 4.7 catches a game. Those are still pretty solid numbers.
This year he has been target 47 times and has 35 catches in 9 games (so he catches it when he gets a chance) and averages 3.9 catches a game. In 5 of the 9 games he has had 4 or more catches.
There was one game this year when Arizona basically didn’t throw the ball and that was against Dallas when the won 38 to 10 and there were only 9 completions by Arizona players on 24 passes.
Now let’s go to the game and the opponent tonight Seattle. The line is 2.5 and the total is 57. The only way to get to 57 is by throwing the ball. Who has the worse pass defense in the league? Seattle and they give up 353 yards per game. Seattle is the fourth best rushing defense in the league giving up 95 yards per game.
The best offensive team is Arizona with 425 yards per game with 256 passing and 168 running. The running numbers are a little skewed. Drake leads the team with 612 yards, Murray is second with 604 and Edmonds has 302. Murray yards mostly come from passing plays that turn into scrambles. So, I think they will not run the ball well and will be passing.
In terms of head to head match ups. Last year in Murray’s fourth NFL game they lost to Seattle 27-10 and were behind 20-3 at half. Murray only completed 22 passes. Fitzgerald was targeted 5 times and had 5 catches.
The second game last year was in Seattle and the results were different. Arizona won 27-13. They ran the ball 40 times for 253 yards with Drake going off for 166 yards. Arizona only threw the ball 27 times and had 15 completions. Larry was targeted 7 times with 4 receptions.
On to 2020. We add Hopkins to the mix and Murray with more experience. Fitzgerald and Hopkins account for 48% of the completions so far this year. Hopkins leading the team with 67 catches and Larry has 35 catches so he is no longer the primary receiver.
They played Seattle 3 weeks ago in a 37-34 thriller in overtime. Larry was targeted 8 times in that game with 8 receptions. Hopkins 12 times with 10 receptions. I am expecting similar results tonight and Larry goes over 3.5 receptions.
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
