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Thread: ~NFL Predictions With Analysis Ratings & Bets ~ Week # 12

  1. #1 ~NFL Predictions With Analysis Ratings & Bets ~ Week # 12 
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    My Top Pick & Big Bet [Pats should run over the Texans here and get back to .500 with a win ]. I have also increased my bets this week in my option with analysis that these games picked have a super good value over other games Sunday.
    Houston Texans (2-7) vs New England Patriots (4-5)

    The Patriots should have their way in this game as the Texans aren’t that good of a team. The Texans cannot run the ball and their defense leaves a lot to be desired. The Patriots can dominate this game and New England be favored just a couple of points, even with them on the road, is baffling to me. The Patriots score 21.0 points per game, but the offense has taken a step in the right direction throughout its last two games. The Patriots defense allows only 23.4 points per game to its opposition, as the defense has been a big part of the team's recent success as well. The Patriots now have a chance to reach .500 with a win over a weak Texans team, a win that would put the Patriots in serious playoff conversations. The New England Patriots are coming off their best win of the season with an upset over the Ravens, and the defense is showing massive improvement over the last few weeks.
    The Houston Texans are coming off a contest where they scored just seven points and they're nearly the worst rushing team offensively while also being the worst defense at stopping the run. I think the Pats found something last year, that they can win with an improved defense and by running the ball. Fortunately for New England, they are facing a Texans team that can't stop the run. They gave up almost 300 yards on the ground to the Browns, so Belichick will no doubt look to exploit that weakness. The Pats should run over the Texans here and get back to .500 with a win.
    The Texans have a lot of issues, but not being able to run the ball and not being able to stop the run is why they're in the position they're in. You can make a strong argument that the Patriots should be much bigger favorites in this game. The Patriots feast ATS against teams that are under .500 and the Texans are not good at home. Bill O’Brien really weakened this roster as the GM of the Texans before being fired and the Patriots have run over teams like this for the last 15 years.
    Bet the -1 1/2 points [buying hook] and put your money on New England. $8400 [ bet includes the juice and hook]

    Miami Dolphins (6-3) at Denver Broncos (3-6)

    I like this red-hot Miami team to go on the road and take care of business against a turnover-prone Denver team. The Broncos just don’t have the offense to keep themselves in this game. Look for the Dolphins to run up the score and that will lead to them winning this game and covering the spread. The Dolphins have covered in their last five games and are on an absolute roll right now. They are not only playing well offensively, but their defense and special teams units are also playing fantastic football. Denver has scuffled over the last few weeks and could be without Lock in this game. Miami will win this game in a blowout. Denver has struggled offensively, averaging 20.7 points per game.


    With Lock still recovering from bruised ribs, Brett Rypien will likely get the start on Sunday, which will be a tall order for the undrafted rookie because the Dolphins have an opportunistic defense that is giving up 20.2 points per game and has forced six turnovers in their last three games. Denver’s defense isn’t very good, with the team giving up 28.2 points per game. Even though he hasn’t put up big numbers since he took over as the team’s starter, Tagovailoa has been very efficient with the ball and hasn’t thrown an interception in three starts. Expect him to pick Denver’s secondary apart as he leads the Dolphins to a comfortable win. Miami has covered the spread in its last five trips to Denver, so the altitude has not been an issue. The Dolphins have more to play for in this one.

    Dolphins -3 - 120 [ Buying Hook ] $3600 Bet ] bet includes the juice and hook]


    Dallas Cowboys (2-7) at Minnesota Vikings (4-5)

    Cowboys have not been able to turn their season around, the Vikings have been playing pretty good football since getting off to a horrible start. They began the season 1-5 and looked like they would just fade into oblivion and maybe tank for a replacement for Kirk Cousins. But Dalvin Cook, arguably the best running back in football, returned from injury and the Vikings have won 3 straight. They are coming off a big win at Chicago Monday night, beating the Bears 19-13 to crawl out of the basement in the NFC North. Dallas covered against one of the best teams in the NFL last time out, even though that spread was a ridiculous 15 points. But, the Cowboys started Garrett Gilbert at quarterback. Now, the plan is to go back with Andy Dalton, and he was turnover prone in his first couple starts. Dallas will have its hands full with a Vikings offense that is coming into its own. Look for the Vikings to roll in this one. These are two teams heading in very different directions as the Cowboys look lost on both sides of the ball while the Vikings have fought themselves back into playoff contention.

    Dallas comes into this game ranked 31st in rushing defense which should lead to a huge game by Cook and as the Minnesota defense is holding their opponents to less than 20 ppg during their 3-game winning streak, I think Minnesota does enough at home to win this one by double-digits and covers this spread. On the season, Minnesota is averaging 26.2 ppg on 392.1 total yards per game (238.6 passing yds/g; 153.6 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Minnesota is led by Dalvin Cook who has 954 rushing yards & 12 TD on 174 carries. Cook has also hauled in 20 receptions for 189 yards & 1 TD. QB

    Kirk Cousins has completed 66.1% of his passes for 2,147 yards (244.6 yds/g), 17 TD, & 11 INT. The top receiving threats for the Vikings have been Justin Jefferson (42 rec, 762 yards, 3 TD), Adam Thielen (41 rec, 523 yards, 9 TD), and Kyle Rudolph (18 rec, 238 yards, TD). Defensively, Minnesota is allowing their opponents to average 27.4 ppg on 394.2 total yards per game (278.6 passing yds/g; 115.7 rushing yds/g). The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record


    My Bet - 6 1/2 -120 Vikings[ buying hook] ] $3600 Bet




    Teaser Bets

    7 Point 2 Team Teaser >> Vikings Even & New England +5 $2600
    7 Point 2 team >> Dolphins +4 & New England +5 $2600
    7 Point 3 Team Teaser>>> Vikings Even & New England +5 & Dolphins +4 $1000

    *** Handicapping information taken *some articles written* from Internet Sports Media. Bleacher Report, Inc.,USA Today Sports Media Group, Pro Football Weekly's & NFL Weather.com, Football Stats and History, and other sources connected with NFL Sports. Contributors DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders > Jerry Nyles NFL Capper, Kyle Hunter NFL Capper Sports Analyst Rob Vinciletti, Harold Windham NFL Analyst, Kyle Hunter NFL Capper, Trev Rogers NFL Capper, Steve Janus NFL Analyst, Sal Limonti NFL Capper, Harv Rubenstein NFL Capper * *****Stats taken from Power Ratings Danny Sheridan power rating, Dunkel Index power,B&Rs Expert Consensus rating, with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Powering Rating ~[Cleveland OH] With Bobby Lancer Exclusive ratings & There Calculated Point Spreads With Trends & Statistics and Indicators. Intelligent Analysis of the NFL Compliments From ~Hårr¥THëHÄT~
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    Member Emeritus uscmd's Avatar
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    Harry, as always...really appreciate your work. I love Mia and like NE. But I'm passing on Min. Dal is getting 7.5 and is healthier, especcially at qb. Add Minn on a short week, and I think Dal might keep it a one score game.


    BOL Harry.
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    Mr. HTH, Let's just win..............as always!
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    Gl!!!!!
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  5. #5 Much of the credit goes to Miami’s impressive first half should go to the defense 
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    Much of the credit goes to Miami’s impressive first half should go to the defense. Overall, they’re giving up the fourth-lowest points per game in the NFL, behind only the Ravens, Rams, and Colts. This past Sunday, the Dolphins defense opened up the scoring with a strip-sack by Emmanuel Ogbah returned for a touchdown by fellow teammate Shaq Lawson. This was Miami’s second straight game with a defensive touchdown. Additionally, the secondary is led by cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, as well as safety Bobby McCain. While the front seven may not be generating a large number sacks, Miami still owns the fourth-lowest opponent third-down conversion percentage. While all eyes will be on Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa, this matchup against a tough offense will be a great test as to whether or not Miami can hold up in their playoff push.
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  6. #6  
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    Game Team Totals Over/Under Moneyline Charts
    Game Team Rating Defense Rating Offense Rating Open Live Open Live Open Live Line Moves
    Patriots 80 84 77 25 23.75 47.5 pts 49 pts -115 -125
    Texans 76 72 81 25 23.75 -105 +105
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  7. #7  
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    • Written by James Jolson
      Defensively, Houston has struggled. Currently, their points per game allowed of 28.0 ranks as the seventh-highest in the league. While their 241.7 passing yards per game allowed is closer to average, the 167.4 yards per game they give up on the ground is the highest in the NFL. Looking back, the Texans have been gashed by a plethora of running backs so far in 2020. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Dalvin Cook, Jonathan Taylor, James Conner, Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt have all rushed for at least 100 yards against Houston. Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb did that in the same game in week 10, and James Robinson missed that mark by one yard in week 9. In fact, only two of their nine games have they allowed less than 100 rushing yards and three of which they allowed over 200. It hasn’t been pretty. That makes this week’s matchup against New England a tough one, considering New England will consistently have fresh legs running the ball with their committee approach, and their 164 rushing yards per game is third-highest in the NFL. If Houston doesn’t want New England to dictate this game, they’ll need to find a way to slow down the Patriots’ running attack and force Cam Newton to beat them through the air.


      The Texans are the NFL’s 17th-ranked pass defense this season, yielding 256.0 yards per game through the air.
    • Newton has thrown for an average of 191.9 yards per game during the 2020 season, 20.6 less than Sunday’s over/under.
    • In 25% of his games this season (two of eight matchups), Newton has thrown for more than 212.5 yards.
    • Newton’s average passing yards prop this season has been set at 219.5, which he’s fallen short of by 27.6 yards on average.
    • Newton has hit the passing yards over in only two of eight opportunities this year (25%).
    • Newton’s season-long passing yards prop bet average is 219.5, a number he’s gone over in just two out of eight games (25%).
    Last edited by MR.HARRYtheHAT; 11-21-2020 at 12:14 PM. Reason: typing
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  8. #8  
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    Correction LOL !! Jumping Ahead Of Myself Week #11 for all the Sherlock Holmes Members and Guests Out There LOL !!!!!
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  9. #9 NFL BREAKING NEWS [ Stephon Gilmore likely will be back on the field ] 
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    Reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore likely will be back on the field after a three-game absence when the New England Patriots visit the Houston Texans on Sunday. Gilmore has been sidelined since injuring a knee during a practice collision on Oct. 29. The Patriots listed the 30-year-old cornerback as questionable on Friday's injury report. "It was tough not playing," Gilmore said Friday. "Seeing your guys out there that you compete with every day, not being able to help, but I could help in another way as far as teaching the guys what I see when I'm on the field, teaching them certain techniques going against certain guys, how I used to play them. I tried to help as much as I can." Gilmore tied for the NFL lead with six interceptions last season while earning his third career Pro Bowl selection. He returned two of the picks for touchdowns. This season, he has just one interception in six games. That came in the season opener against the Miami Dolphins. New England coach Bill Belichick isn't overly worried about the stats, he just wants to see the unit's top defensive player back on the field.
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  10. #10 Pete Prisco, CBS Sports ////// Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk 
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    Pete Prisco, CBS Sports:
    Pick: Patriots 27, Texans 24

    The Texans are basically done, while the Patriots have won two straight to get back on track and in playoff contention. The Patriots have dominated the Texans in this series and I think they will continue that here. New England will again control the ball on the ground to win a tough, physical game. Newton should continue to make strides as well. He's been extremely efficient in recent weeks as well as safe with the ball. Those aspects must continue, but if he can develop a rapport with a new weapon it could take the Patriots offense to a new level. Eventually a team will take away Meyers and effectively stop the run. How the Patriots counter that with secondary targets could determine the outcome.
    Prediction:
    The Patriots saw their 2019 season get derailed by Baltimore and then another big nail put into their coffin in Houston. They knocked off the Ravens with their best all-around game of the season and now they will take advantage of the opportunity presented before them against the Texans. They should have all the motivation they need with the chance to even their record. The momentum keeps building, but it will take another clean game that will have to be closed out in the fourth quarter.



    Michael David Smith, Pro Football Talk:
    Pick: Patriots 27, Texans 17

    Don't count the Patriots out of the playoff race just yet. They shouldn't have too much trouble against a bad Texans team. For the Patriots, the most tantalizing matchup is the Houston run defense that is giving up more yards and yards-per-attempt than any other defense in the league and ranking dead last in the league in run defense DVOA..... Damien Harris (5.5 yards-per-attempt) and clutch Rex Burkhead, who are taking advantage of the wide open holes that the offensive line and blockers are opening up. Add in Cam Newton's ability to pick up key first downs with his legs and the Patriots ground game is the number one nightmare for the Texans. The formula isn't hard to discern for the 2020 Patriots, their strength is clear and it matches up well with the Texans weakness. They just have to execute like they did against the Ravens depleted front.








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  11. #11 Some Reasons To Bet Vikings [Stats] In This Match-up 
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    Quote Originally Posted by uscmd View Post
    Harry, as always...really appreciate your work. I love Mia and like NE. But I'm passing on Min. Dal is getting 7.5 and is healthier, especcially at qb. Add Minn on a short week, and I think Dal might keep it a one score game.


    BOL Harry.
    Thank You uscmd !!! best of luck Sunday Buddy !!!!!!!!!
    Articles By Contributors DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders > Jerry Nyles NFL Capper, Sports Analyst Rob Vinciletti,
    Jerry Nyles NFL Capper

    Dallas has been their offensive attack this season, coughing up the football 20 times. That number is the second-most in the NFL and it is fueled by Elliott, who leads all running backs with five fumbles this year.Andy Dalton’s role as the Cowboys’ backup quarterback also hasn’t gone well with three interceptions and a lost fumble on 85 pass attempts.The Vikings rank 19th with 11 takeaways on the season, but that should improve against a team that is -13 in turnover ratio. If this trend continues, Minnesota’s offense should be teed up on a short field to take advantage and have a higher than normal output this week.

    While their past is interesting, so is Gladney’s play as of late. Since the Vikings came off of their bye in Week 7, Gladney has allowed just 0.73 yards per route run in the slot. That number is seventh among qualifying corners in the NFL and it should mean he will see plenty of Lamb, who is second in the league this year with 557 yards from the slot.

    Sports Analyst Rob Vinciletti,

    Jefferson is coming off one of the best overall games of his young career on Monday night as he caught eight passes for 135 yards in Minnesota’s win over the Chicago Bears.In this game, the Vikings almost seemed to shift their philosophy that if Dalvin Cook gets stopped, it will be Jefferson who will make defenses pay for switching their focus on the backfield. Since entering the starting lineup in Week 3, Jefferson has averaged 6.8 targets a game. Although he got 10 targets on Monday night, Minnesota might not throw the ball as much against Dallas with Cook also projected to have a big day.But this won’t stop Jefferson from dismantling a Cowboys defense that has allowed 21 passing touchdowns this season,second-most behind the Atlanta Falcons.

    This number is not because of volume either as the Cowboys have coughed up five yards per carry to their opponents this year, which is also the second-highest average in the league behind the Houston Texans. Simply put, teams have punched Dallas in the mouth and they haven’t gotten back up.This is the one matchup that swings this game greatly into the Vikings’ favor. We know Minnesota is going to give Cook 25 to 30 touches in Sunday’s game. Against the Cowboys defense, any of those touches could result in him heading to the end zone. While 200 rushing yards may be an aggressive number, it’s certainly one Cook can flirt with this week.

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  12. #12  
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    Good Luck Harry, but its week 11!
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  13. #13 My evaluation of matchup for week #11 
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    My evaluation of matchup for week #11 before my 3 game picks & bets[ Yes, I picked 3 games to bet [ Early Betting ] !!!! Some Early Lines !!!

    Eagles (+3.5) over BROWNS: Philadelphia has gotten healthier in key skill positions than it has been in a while — with the return of Zack Ertz, Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffery — so it should be smartly positioned to stage rebound against a Browns defense that has been flattered by Cleveland’s markedly windy conditions in recent weeks. Line Moved To Eagles (+2.5)

    Jets (+8.5) over CHARGERS: This is more an anti-Bolts play than anything else, given the Chargers’ sustained seasonal pattern of playing to the level of their competition. With a representative clan of receivers on the field, Joe Flacco remains capable of showing to better advantage. Line Moved To Jets +9 1/2

    Falcons (+5) over SAINTS: The hosts are making a near-term quarterback move to Taysom Hill in this spot over Jameis Winston. Given Atlanta’s improved play over and above their underperforming September, won’t be at all surprised at a close call in the latest edition of this spirited rivalry. Line Moved To + 3 1/2

    Lions (+1.5) over PANTHERS: Teddy Bridgewater is likely out at quarterback for Carolina, and the status of Matthew Stafford’s throwing thumb is an open question, but expect the Lions’ ground game to represent this week, and broad overall performance improvement out of Detroit has been encouraging, . Line Moved To Pick
    Patriots (-2.5) over TEXANS: Compelled to take the established class, even as tangible road faves, against a Texans squad led by Deshaun Watson. Watson has failed to rise to last year’s standards, and we’re reluctant to bet on a near-term reversal against Bill Belichick. Line stayed the same

    JAGUARS (+9) over Steelers: The market has adjusted against us, but still compelled to lean toward this sly dog, given Pittsburgh’s habit of underperforming in recent decades against foes they know they can handle. Young quarterback Jake Luton has performed adequately for the home side. Not eager to endorse either side, at market. Line Moved To +10 1/2
    Bengals (+1.5) over WASHINGTON: We respect Alex Smith, but given the Washington talent pool, going to look toward the Bengals plus anything against this host and its underperforming running game. Cincinnati rookie Joe Burrow has impressed us markedly and has earned our confidence. Line stayed the same

    Titans (+6) over RAVENS: Baltimore showed us plenty in its second half against the Colts two weeks ago, but in this league, will look for Tennessee to exert maximum effort in their quest to remain in the thick of the AFC postseason scramble. Maintain highest respect for visitor’s coaching staff. Line stayed the same

    Packers (+2) over COLTS: The Packers are in comfy shape within the NFC North and boast an easier schedule in terms of attaining the best record within the conference vs. the Saints. What’s more, we’ll take Aaron Rodgers in his current form over Philip Rivers. Line Moved To + 1 1/2
    Miami (-3.5) over DENVER: Temperature forecasts in the upper 40s for this are good news for the invaders. The Dolphins have been a midseason revelation behind Tua Tagovailoa, with the defense supplying the signal-caller with field position and support since their sluggish start. Drew Lock needs to pick it up for the Broncos. Line Moved To -4

    Chiefs (-8) over RAIDERS: Traditional rival Las Vegas was armed and ready at Arrowhead in the first meeting and hung up 40 in stunning upset as a double-digit dog. That is K.C.’s lone loss, Line Moved To - 7 1/2

    Monday

    Rams (+4) over BUCCANEERS: The visitors have endured their share of time-zone travel — having gone to Buffalo, Philly, D.C and Miami before this. L.A. is the real thing, with a more-than-respectable pass defense and a diversified offense — including a legitimate air game triggered by Jared Goff. They have Tom Brady to beat, but we’re not willing to pay for the brand name, here. Line stayed the same


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  14. #14  
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    MR. H/hat........appreciate all the added info and thought's you provide........

    thank you, indy
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    Quote Originally Posted by indiana View Post
    MR. H/hat........appreciate all the added info and thought's you provide........

    thank you, indy
    Thank You indy as always !!! If I can connect 2 of my bets including my big wager bet and a teaser bet , would be great !!!! all 3 plus all the teasers ~Jackpot !!!! buddy !!!
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    Quote Originally Posted by MR.HARRYtheHAT View Post
    all 3 plus all the teasers ~Jackpot !!!!
    May you hit all your plays Mr Hat!!!
    Thanks for the time and effort

    " I'm hiding in Honduras I'm a desperate man Send lawyers, guns and money The shit has hit the fan "
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  17. #17  
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    Quote Originally Posted by RMoney22 View Post
    Good Luck Harry, but its week 11!
    Correction LOL !! Jumping Ahead Of Myself Week #11 for all the Sherlock Holmes Members and Guests Out There LOL !!!!! Yo 11 front line winner !!!!! oops this not crap game//LOL !!!
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  18. #18  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twisted View Post
    May you hit all your plays Mr Hat!!!
    Thanks for the time and effort

    If I Do Twisted !!! I will be sending you official Tom Brady inflated football also signed by me !! This way you won't need lawyers, guns ,money when you start beating natives at there own game buddy !!! Best Of Luck On Your Picks & Bets this Sunday Buddy !!!!!!!!
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    Bol mhth!
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    Why the change in the way you represent how much on each play?
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  21. #21  
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    Harry, good old fashioned trap game. Whenever a line looks too good to be true.......IT ISN'T.

    I keep hoping I'll learn not to snap at bright shiny things. We'll get 'em next week my friend
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    No worries Harry-see you soon on the forum
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    One of the best cappers in business. Pick yourself up off of pavement and get em next week.
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