Sunday Service Play Thread 11/29/2020

BuzzKill · Nov 21, 2020

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Yankees5560 · Nov 24, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Nov 29 2020 1:00PM
257 CLE -0.5(-120) William Hill vs 258 JAC double-dime bet

Analysis: A lot of locals have not put this game up, but BOL and all the domestic shops such as Fanduel, WHill, and DK have it available right now. Green Bay is good in a teaser as long as it's 2.5 or less.

2* 6 PT TEASER Browns -0.5/Packers -1.5 -120

Throw out the Jags week one win against Indy, where they were statistically dominated but managed a win, and we would be talking about this Jags team as a historically bad team along with the Jets. I make this game Cleveland -8.5 and strongly lean towards them ATS as well.

The Jags are even worse then their season long stats would indicate. QB Jake Luton, if he starts, is a downgrade on Gardner Minshew (and Minshew is one of the leagues worst starting quarterbacks). Injuries have recently dismantled an already bad roster. Pro bowl caliber LG Andrew Norwell and DE Josh Allen are the latest injuries, adding to a list of injured starters that already included WR Laviska Shenault, TE James O'Shaugnessy, CB CJ Henderson and CB Sidney Jones.

Green Bay is 5-0 SUATS off a loss under Matt Lafleur, and with this defense being able to put shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander on Allen Robinson, Chicago lacks the complementary pieces to their offense needed to get the leagues 31st ranked offense going. And this offense is regressing, as they have been held to 3, 5, 4.8, and 4.6 YPP in their last four games (league average is 5.7).

Yankees5560 · Nov 24, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Nov 29 2020 4:25PM
271 KAN / 272 TAM OVER 54.0 Westgatedouble-dime bet

Analysis: [FONT=&quot]I will start this off with an excerpt from my Chiefs/Ravens over write up from earlier in the season. I think the matchup and situation is very similar for the Chiefs in this game.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]"The logic is simple on this over: When you force an all time great quarterback into urgent situations, his aggressiveness and production is going to skyrocket. What other explanation is there for the fact that Mahomes has led the Chiefs to six consecutive victories when trailing by at least 10 points at any time during the game?"
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[FONT=&quot]Tampa Bay's offense has struggled against top tier pass rushes such as the Saints, Rams, and Bears, but that has not been the case against weaker pass rushes and their offense is more then capable of putting the Chiefs offense into situations where offensive urgency is needed, just like the Raiders did last week in a game in a game that finished with 66 points. The Chiefs defense does not look right, and most importantly against Vegas they couldn’t put any pressure on the quarterback, important against arguably the leagues most pressure sensitive quarterback in Tom Brady. If given time against this Chiefs secondary, there are matchup edges all over the field to exploit.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]The Bucs defense is an obvious pass funnel, ranking first in the NFL in YPC allowed in run defense but in pass defense they recently allowed big games to Jared Goff, Drew Brees, and Daniel Jones. They play a defensive style nearly identical to the Ravens, who are heavy on agressive man coverage and blitzing (Ravens rank first in blitz rate, Tampa is second). Mahomes in that game against Baltimore went 31 of 42 for 385 yards and 4 touchdowns. [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Quite simply, I believe this number is short. Both pass defenses are recently playing below expectation, and both quarterbacks have plus matchups against the style of defenses they are facing. [/FONT]

Yankees5560 · Nov 24, 2020

Warren Sharp

257 Cleveland Browns Over 47.5 (0.75 units)
___
263 LA Chargers Over 52 (1 unit)

Rainz · Nov 25, 2020

Buster Sport

Game: (271) Kansas City Chiefs at (272) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 4:25 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 53.0 (-110)

IMPORTANT NOTICE 6pm EST Tuesday
AFTER RELEASING THIS PLAY EARLY THIS MORNING WE NOW SEE WITH THE $2 BUY THIS TOTAL BEING PUSHED TO 55 ½ AND EVEN 56 ALL WITHIN A 8 HR PERIOD. WITH MORE PEOPLE BUYING THIS RELEASE WE MIGHT SEE IT HIT 56 ½.
JUST SOME PARAMETERS 56 STILL GD AT 4%
56 ½ IS 3% 57 IS A 2%.

Our selection is on the Kansas City/ Tampa Bay over 53
We have not been impressed by either of these defenses and now that the LA Rams showed the world that you actually can throw against this Bucs D we will look for Kansas City and QB Mahomes to have a big game against a defense we have been calling suspect all year. Even though the stats might look good. KC has been unstoppable on offense. They have put up 43, 35, 33 and 35 points respectively in their last 4 games and we see no reason that they wont be over 30 again in this game. As for Brady and company they are going to get their points as well against a Kansas City D that has given up 31 points in each of their last 2 games. We like Brady to bounce back in this spot from a dismal second half performance in his last game when he threw 2 second half interceptions. We actually had this total at 55 and with the line at 53 at the time of this writing, it is a nice break from the oddsmaker. The weather should be perfect for the weekend in Tampa and that just helps send this one flying OVER the posted total.
So lets get the job done with the Kansas City/ Tampa bay OVER 53.

ryangenero · Nov 26, 2020

Football Jesus Podcast Sunday , bets Titans , Buccaneers

Yankees5560 · Nov 27, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Nov 29 2020 1:00PM
263 LAC 5.5(-110) Westgate vs 264 BUF double-dime bet

Analysis: We all know the book on the Chargers. Look to fade them as a favorite, and look to back them as underdogs. The Chargers and the Steelers remain the only two teams this entire season who have not lost a game by more than one score.

The Chargers offense matches up very well against this Bills defense. Justin Herbert is the third rated QB in the NFL at throwing deep (15 yards of further), and the Bills allow a league high in completion rate on those throws. Herbert is also excelling against the blitz this year with over 9 YPA, while Buffalo is 6th in the NFL in blitz rate.

Buffalo is gonna score points (hence why we like the over), but the Chargers are going to as well, and Buffalo could potentially be without WR John Brown while the Chargers could potentially be getting stud slot corner Chris Harris and RB Austin Ekeler back. Keenan Allen also gets a plus matchup, going against a Bills defense that is vulnerable inside and does not move CB TreDavious White into the slot.

Both teams are dealing with potential injuries, but the most important one might be Bills underrated WR John Brown. There was bad weather in these games, but the Bills offense scored only 18.75 PPG in the four games Brown has missed this year, and that was against a weak schedule of opposing defenses in NYJ, NE, KC, and TEN. In the games Brown has played in, the Bills have averaged 32.8 PPG

I make this game Chargers +3.5, giving us value on the Chargers!

Yankees5560 · Nov 27, 2020

266 NYJ 7.0(-110) Southpoint vs 265 MIA double-dime bet

Analysis: This has been a different Jets offense since getting their wide receivers healthy. Over the Jets last two games, they have scored 7 offensive touchdowns, which matches what they did in their 8 games. Not only will the Jets finally have all three of their starting wideouts back for this game, but they will also have QB Sam Darnold back.

Miami since inserting Tua into their starting lineup are averaging 4.3 YPP, last in the NFL. This is a well coached team, but this is not anything near even an average roster in my opinion.

With Miami struggling to score points, and the Jets offense playing much better, there's no way Miami can be laying a touchdown on the road. The perception is that the Jets are unbackable , but they have actually covered three of their last four games including two straight

Yankees5560 · Nov 27, 2020

Warren Sharp

263 LA Chargers team total Over 23.5 (0.5 units)
___
Small Thanksgiving add: 121 Houston Texans team total Over 27.5 -115 (0.5 units)
257 Cleveland Browns Over 47.5 (0.75 units)
263 LA Chargers Over 52 (1 unit)

dough · Nov 27, 2020

Ness "Legend"

Vikings

GalenThomas · Nov 28, 2020

Syndicate Cash NFL Plays : Atlanta + 9 % Cash / NE + 26% Cash / San Fran + 34 % Cash

MrUnlucky · Nov 28, 2020

Lorenzo's Locks (Sports Pulse)
1-2 last week, 19-12-2 this season.

Raiders by 8
Giants by 13
Bills by 8

BuzzKill · Nov 28, 2020

Newsletters - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=325&p=13335196&viewfull=1#post13335196

Iron · Nov 28, 2020

Colin Cowherd Blazing 5 (25-29-1)
Buf -6
Gia -5.5
Ten +4
Chi +9.5
Sea -6

Iron · Nov 28, 2020

NY Daily News
P. Leonard (9-2) Ari -2.5
K. Wagner (9-2) GB -7.5
T. Biersdorfer (8-2-1) KC -3
A. Clayton (7-4) KC -3
W. Pakutka (7-4) Cle -6.5

Iron · Nov 28, 2020

NY Post
Dunleavy (22-11) Mia -7; Sea -5; Pit -4.5
Serby (20-12-1) Gia -5; Jets +7; Ten +4
Kussoy (19-14) Hou -2.5; Dal -3; Min -4.5

Loftis (10-23) Gia -5; Min -4.5; Cle -6.5
Schwartz (10-21-2) Dal-3; Buf -6; Pit -4.5
Cannizzaro (13-20) Det +2.5; Dal -3; Pit -4.5
Blezow (13-17-3) Gia -5; LAC +6; Cle -6.5

Calarco17 · Nov 28, 2020

MTI 5*

titans / colts under 52

Good luck

BuzzKill · Nov 28, 2020

Ralph Michaels

Game: (263) Los Angeles Chargers at (264) Buffalo Bills
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 1:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Buffalo Bills -4.5 (-110)

#264 5% Buffalo -4.5 LA Chargers 1 PM ET
Impressed with Herbert as he’s putting up points on the scoreboard but winning is s a different matter. Herbert has started the L9 games and they are 2-7 with the wins both at home vs Jacksonville and the NY Jets.
Game: (251) Las Vegas Raiders at (252) Atlanta Falcons
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 1:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Teaser Atlanta Falcons +9.0 (-125)/ Rams -1/2

4% TWO TEAM 6-pt Teaser
Atlanta +9/ LA Rams -½ pt
Game: (269) San Francisco 49ers at (270) Los Angeles Rams
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 4:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 44.5 (-110)

##269/#270 3% UNDER 44.5 SF/ LA Rams 4:05 PM

sdf · Nov 28, 2020

MTI
4.5-Star Jets +7 over Dolphins -
4-Star Packers -9.5 over Bear
4.5-Star Giants at Bengals OVER 42.5
4.5-Star Chargers at Bills Over 53 -
4-Star Chiefs at Bucs UNDER 53 -
4-Star Arizona at Patriots Over 49.5 -

beeks19 · Nov 28, 2020

Calarco17 said:
MTI 5*

titans / colts under 52

Good luck

I don’t even see a 5* listed on their website

Sunday Service Play Thread 11/29/2020

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