woodbine race 13
#5 mayito (8-1) ml
1) so i start by analyzing the line and it tells me that sims #57 and #113 are here, so its an autamitic chalkk by post time
(my line says 9/5 or 2/1 )
2) i look over the top 9 factors with a glance and try to dissect how well he will adopt to todays conditions
3) looking at the top 9 sims , i see he will run into problems with jockey, running style , distance, and spacing .
4) i look at everyone else to draw comparisons
5) i notice that there are so many holes on everyone else that he becomes credible no matter what (hate it when that happens especially knowing that he will be the post time favourite .
6) So here comes the kicker alot of handicappers have made him a value bet already!!! due to the fact that he is 8-1 ml!!!
so they have analyzed the race with that in mind!!! ,so when it comes to post time they will have to scramble to adjust
if they looking for value.
7) so in this race situation it becomes very difficult to assess the race if you scramble because #5 he has serious negatives and serious positives ,not easy to conclude due to the contradictory evidence of his past performances
8) lastly i assign 75 percent of the remaining pool (according to my figures based on the #5 taking 25 percent of the win pool) and divide it by 13 horses to get the approx lines for the remaining contenders.
9) It leaves me with an avg of 5.76 percent for all the rest of the contenders -- which equates to about (18-1) on each of them , with all things being equal which we know never are , but it gives you a starting point
10 ) so you are left with knowing he(#5) will go fav , he should take at least 25 percent of the pool , and has the balancing act of drawing positives and negatives, and the next closest contender should not be 5-1 or less given the fact that the avg index for all the remaining contenders is (18-1) on avg .
11) here is where it gets interesting if any contenders besides the #10 horse dip below the 5-1 range and you have concluded that the #5 won't be your bet !!!!! then you may want to peak in the direction of the horse who is drawing that money flow as he could very well be
the live horse.
on the other hand if no one besides the #10 drops below 5-1 , then the race is scheduled as plan and there is no inside info on a live play and you will have to decide if the #5 is good enough or not
gl folks
#5 mayito (8-1) ml
1) so i start by analyzing the line and it tells me that sims #57 and #113 are here, so its an autamitic chalkk by post time
(my line says 9/5 or 2/1 )
2) i look over the top 9 factors with a glance and try to dissect how well he will adopt to todays conditions
3) looking at the top 9 sims , i see he will run into problems with jockey, running style , distance, and spacing .
4) i look at everyone else to draw comparisons
5) i notice that there are so many holes on everyone else that he becomes credible no matter what (hate it when that happens especially knowing that he will be the post time favourite .
6) So here comes the kicker alot of handicappers have made him a value bet already!!! due to the fact that he is 8-1 ml!!!
so they have analyzed the race with that in mind!!! ,so when it comes to post time they will have to scramble to adjust
if they looking for value.
7) so in this race situation it becomes very difficult to assess the race if you scramble because #5 he has serious negatives and serious positives ,not easy to conclude due to the contradictory evidence of his past performances
8) lastly i assign 75 percent of the remaining pool (according to my figures based on the #5 taking 25 percent of the win pool) and divide it by 13 horses to get the approx lines for the remaining contenders.
9) It leaves me with an avg of 5.76 percent for all the rest of the contenders -- which equates to about (18-1) on each of them , with all things being equal which we know never are , but it gives you a starting point
10 ) so you are left with knowing he(#5) will go fav , he should take at least 25 percent of the pool , and has the balancing act of drawing positives and negatives, and the next closest contender should not be 5-1 or less given the fact that the avg index for all the remaining contenders is (18-1) on avg .
11) here is where it gets interesting if any contenders besides the #10 horse dip below the 5-1 range and you have concluded that the #5 won't be your bet !!!!! then you may want to peak in the direction of the horse who is drawing that money flow as he could very well be
the live horse.
on the other hand if no one besides the #10 drops below 5-1 , then the race is scheduled as plan and there is no inside info on a live play and you will have to decide if the #5 is good enough or not
gl folks
