Week 13: Discipline

ofred · Nov 23, 2020

Got to show discipline now after putting myself in the red. UC game was a heartbreaker. Bad start on a fumbled punt, and UC gets down to the one at the end of the game, and can't punch it in. I still think they were the much better team. Oh well...
YTD: 54-52, -2.74 units

6* Buffalo/ Kent- Over 65.5 Big part of this play is that the UB defense is vastly overrated. In their first two games, they played a very young and 1st game offense of NIU(which scored 30), and then Miami, whose receivers dropped numerous long passes that would have been TDs or close to it. Then Bowling Green, which is a hopeless team-think Kansas of the MAC. Kent is a really one-sided team. Great offense that can beat you in many ways. Dustin Crum is a gamer that orchestrates his offense with the read-option to almost perfection. On the other side of the ball, their defense is a garbage. Buffalo's RBs should run for about 400 yards on them. Akron and Bowling Green ran easily on them. The pass defense is only slightly better. This play is predicated on the very easy schedule both of these teams played, especially on the defensive side. While they both pulled starters 4th quarter previously, that won't happen here.

indiana · Nov 24, 2020

Fred......this is our week buddy.......BOL with your OV. ......will be on it with you.......

continue those winning ways this week my friend........indy

ofred · Nov 24, 2020

1* UNM -6 Utah State seems like a program that is just in the dumps. They have covid issues, their HC was fired, the starting QB got kicked off the team, the 2nd stringer is injured, and have issues on the field with glaring weaknesses. Their OL is awful, they don't have playmakers, and does it really matter who QBs this team? UNM is also 0-4, but has played much better than USU, and with a tougher schedule. UNM nearly pulled upsets of both Hawaii and Nevada. Their QB is injured, but the backup, Trae Hall, seems like he is about at the same level of skill, if not experience. UNM also has a much better coaching staff that doesn't have the "hang dog" feeling. They really think they are better than their record. UNM, in the Bob Davies era, was a depressing program, but it seems like the players have responded well to the new coaching staff, and play hard each week.

ofred · Nov 25, 2020

2* Oregon State +14 Oregon was lucky to come away with a win last Saturday. UCLA, even with their QB and others out due to Covid, looked as good as the Ducks did. Could have won. Lots of turnovers and momentum swings. But that freshman QB for UCLA was made to look like a future star. And the UCLA running game was also stellar. This Oregon D is either underperforming, or they just are overrated. They lost their best DBs to opt outs, and their best LB last week to injury. My eye test shows that the DL and LBs get pushed around a lot, and that the secondary allows way too much space between them and the opponents receivers. The best part of this Duck season is their new QB Shough. He is still a bit turnover prone, but has some strong playmaking skills, and moves well around the pocket and in running plays. The Oregon OL, while usually great, is suffering from being almost all newbies. They are decent in run blocking, but are not so good at protecting the QB. If Oregon stays turnover free, and their defense steps up big, they cover, but..

The Beavers always take this game more seriously than Oregon. This season they have issues too. The defense has played better since Game One, but it is not going to stop the Ducks all game. The reason I think OSU has a chance in this game , even to possibly win, is that their running game can exploit this Oregon defense. Jermar Jefferson is establishing himself as the premier RB of the PAC 12, and the Beaver OL is doing a nice job run blocking. Their QB, Gebbia, has only started 4 games in his career, but his two best were vs. Oregon last season and vs. Washington State this year. In the UW game(game 2), the weather inhibited any passing. He's not a great passer, but is mobile and able to avoid pass rushes fairly well. The Beavers can sustain drives, and eat clock, with a strong run game and short passing vs. a poor Duck front 7. OSU plays to win this year, not just lose respectably.

ofred · Nov 26, 2020

2* UCF -14 1H McKenzie Milton might play after his horrific injury of 2 seasons ago. Even if he doesn't play, just him being suited up on the sidelines will be inspiration for this UCF team. Then there's the loss last week to UC. Then you have a depleted USF roster that only has 2 scholarship players in the secondary (previously a strength). UCF's incredible tempo is one reason they start off games so well. USF has seen it before, but this USF defense is not up to their usual standard. They are 103rd in defensive efficiency, while UCF is 53rd. USF has not been able to run the ball well all season( RB Ford just left the team), and the QB position has been a revolving door. It seems almost like their new coach is holding tryouts at various positions, prepping for 2021. Many injuries from the Houston game for USF, a game that they gave up over 300 yards rushing and 8.6 ypc. The game could get cancelled.. I would bet this one live if UCF gets down early. Good chance they also cover the -25 game bet.

ofred · Nov 27, 2020

1* UNC/ Notre Dame- over 69.5 Feel stupid for not hitting this at 67. With UNC's defense, how can ND not hit 40+? UNC won't be able to run the ball, but probably pass about 40-50 times, scoring somewhere in the 30s? Back door cover is also very possible for either team. Two top notch QBs, go over! Duh.

ofred · Nov 27, 2020

UNC- ND, 28 points 1st quarter, then almost nothing. UCF 1H covers, although game bet in trouble.

2* Kansas St. /Baylor- under 45  Should be a drenching rain throughout this game for 2 teams that will run a lot anyways. Charlie Brewer has become a dink and dunker, and the K State freshman QB pretty much the same. Despite K State's blowout loss last week, their defense has played pretty well. They also take forever to run a play on offense, using much of the clock before the snap. Baylor was supposed to have issues with many new defensive starters, but surprisingly the young players have played better than last season's D.

2* Clemson -23 This could be a bargain spread considering Clemson gets Lawrence back, and the team is healthier. Big part of this play is that Pitt has got issues which their 2 game winning streak has glossed over. Yeah, they beat VT, but VT has been gashed all year defensively. Pitt's run defense may be good, but I don't see how their pass defense holds up here too well. The Pitt secondary, along with their running game and OL, are weaknesses that will be exposed here. Lots of hype having Kenny Pickett back for Pitt, and he is a big improvement over the backups, but I think he's benefitted from some weak ACC defenses...and he has turned the ball over in the past. Clemson pulls away 2nd half. Clemson puts in super-sub QB DJ 4th quarter, and he'll continue the rout. Clemson has been a cover animal after a loss or close game the last 5 years.

Looking at this USF- UCF game, how the hell did UC not KILL UCF last week? Best capped loss of the year for me.

varkeyboy · Nov 27, 2020

Great call on UCF 1H!

ofred · Nov 27, 2020

1* BC -1 A play on a well-coached, disciplined team(BC) vs. a more athletic, but hopelessly careless and mistake-prone team (UL). I really don't like the Louisville QB, Malik Cunningham. Throws too hard, inaccurate, poor decision-making. If BC's DC preps well for this Louisville offense, they should be able to capitalize on Cunningham's many issues. BC is having a season that was supposed to be a rebuild, but now has a chance for a bowl game.

1* Georgia Southern +1.5 Georgia Southern has 3 losses(and 6 wins), but all were closely contested. Georgia State has a QB that can be sensational at times, but that's about all they got. Too one-dimensional offensively, too porous defensively. GS triple option should monopolize the clock here. Georgia Southern has also surprised defensively, and though they'll give up some yardage here, they tend to defend well in the red zone (10th nationally).

ofred · Nov 27, 2020

1* Miss. State +9 MSU can win this game, and have about a 50-50 chance of doing so. With QB Will Rogers, they finally have a QB who doesn't turn it over, and has seemingly mastered the Mike Leach short passing Air Raid offense. Or at least much better than Costello. MSU will also be able to run the ball against Ole Miss, which has the worst run defense in the SEC. The Bulldogs have played much better since Leach has approvingly let some players go, playing some younger guys that really have stepped up. Ole Miss is going to score here, but they also have had a penchant for turnovers. I can see them with 500 yards, but held to less than 30 points.

ofred · Nov 27, 2020

1* Coastal Carolina -17 (-115) The Texas State defense has been carved up ever since their BC loss. They are vulnerable to a run heavy team like CCU, an offense that also has a good dual threat QB. I got a sense that last week's upset of Ark. State was their final effort and that after one of their DBs was fatally shot this week, they might be emotionally drained. CCU brings an incredible passion for the game. If you have ever seen them play, they celebrate in the good plays of their teammates. It is a sincere expression of "team first". The CCU front 4 is also the best in the Sun Belt, while the secondary leads in turnovers. A complete team that knows this game is just as important as last week's victory over App. State.

ofred · Nov 28, 2020

o fred said:
1* BC -1 A play on a well-coached, disciplined team(BC) vs. a more athletic, but hopelessly careless and mistake-prone team (UL). I really don't like the Louisville QB, Malik Cunningham. Throws too hard, inaccurate, poor decision-making. If BC's DC preps well for this Louisville offense, they should be able to capitalize on Cunningham's many issues. BC is having a season that was supposed to be a rebuild, but now has a chance for a bowl game.

1* Georgia Southern +1.5 Georgia Southern has 3 losses(and 6 wins), but all were closely contested. Georgia State has a QB that can be sensational at times, but that's about all they got. Too one-dimensional offensively, too porous defensively. GS triple option should monopolize the clock here. Georgia Southern has also surprised defensively, and though they'll give up some yardage here, they tend to defend well in the red zone (10th nationally).

Betting off the Georgia Southern game. No play.

ofred · Nov 28, 2020

1* Teaser (-120)
Texas A&M -5.5
NC State -7
Ball State +20 Largest teaser I've played in a while. More like 1.5 units. All games I'm betting straight, but not full units. Will probably regret that as in many teasers, you go 2-1, lose the teaser , but would have won betting straight up.

ofred · Nov 28, 2020

Looking at live bet on the over in the Kent/ UB game. These defenses will be played out by 4th Q. 2H maybe.

varkeyboy · Nov 28, 2020

o fred said:
Looking at live bet on the over in the Kent/ UB game. These defenses will be played out by 4th Q. 2H maybe.

Lol agree. Live total 96.5 now

ofred · Nov 28, 2020

varkeyboy said:
Lol agree. Live total 96.5 now

It might hit that. Got to see 2H total first.

ofred · Nov 28, 2020

Over 38 2H, not bad. Just 6 TDs.

FORGETABOUTIT · Nov 28, 2020

o fred said:
Over 38 2H, not bad. Just 6 TDs.

6 TD’s could be scored in the 3rd quarter alone at the rate they going.

ofred · Nov 28, 2020

The contrast in offenses and defenses in this game is extreme. Then throw in Kent's fast pace. The Ds should be gassed at some point.

ofred · Nov 28, 2020

Sitting good for the day. One more:

1* Navy +14 Navy has had a weird season. Gets killed by BYU to start the season, comes from 24 behind to beat Tulane, and then gets hammered by Air Force. Since then they've gone 2-3. They haven't played for a month, but I think their roster is finally back to normal after the covid issues. They haven't run their option offense as well this season as in the past, but they do have a better passing game. I like the situation here. Memphis has to travel, and they have not been a good road team going back a couple of seasons. Playing an unusual offense that can monopolize the clock. Now Navy is getting 14 points for a reason. They have really struggled with teams like SMU and Houston, and can give up some big chunks defensively. Yet Memphis also has been pretty bad defensively. They barely squeaked by Temple and USF, two teams having miserable seasons. Without Gainwell and Coxie, the Memphis offense is not quite as dynamic. Navy gets creative here, with solid coaching, and stays in the game.

Week 13: Discipline

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