random thoughts/leans...
- Anthony Smith -135 ...Smith is a better quality fighter, so despite all the red flags, I cannot back Clark in this spot. Smith is sharper with his hands, more technical in the clinch, and capable of keeping the hefty size of Clark at distance; likely descision
- Josh Parisian ITD -135 / Round 1 +175 ...Very possible first-round finish. Otherwise it may turn into a bar room brawl. Parisian does have the occasional wild spinning back-fist to keep us entertained
- Takashi Sato - 50/50 tossup here, Baeza has the more deadly power on the feet. Sato is slicker and will surely embrace a clinch-heavy gameplan that Brown had much success with.
- Spike Carlyle KO +140 / Round 1 +225 ...The Ginger King is far too powerful on the feet for Algeo to be able survive. Algeo may be more than capable of taking the fight to the ground, but Carlyle’s natural strength plays into his TDD and ground game.
- Ashlee Evans-Smith -140 / over 2½ -240 ...Evans-Smith has more than acceptable striking when facing one-dimensional fighters such as Dumont. At a healthier weight class, there is little reason why Evans-Smith should tail off in the latter rounds, and will be able to remain defensively aware of Dumont’s ground game threat.
- Martin Day -155 ...Day is the fresher fighter with the slicker striking. Possessing a wide array of shots, Day’s success will come from his willingness to attack the body of his opponent.
- Rachael Ostovich +168 ...Such an awful match, well other thasn Rachel's huge jugs
Ostovich is the aggressor of the two, and she had genuine some against Paige Van Zant until she got complacent on the mat - Su Mudaerji - ...On the ground, Gordon can certainly test Mudaerji, but the fight shouldn’t be able to get there in the first place. Mudaerji has a strong TDD, and his footwork will keep Gordon chasing the TD
- Nate Maness KO +675 ...Maness has too much power and intensity on the feet for Sander’s leaky striking defence imho, although sample not ample
-
|
after a bit more research...Baeza vs Sato should be a great scrap in the WW division. Baeza is a solid young fighter undefeated at 9-0 with 7 wins by way of ko/tko. His standup game is his greatest asset. He has speed, power, and mixes punches and kicks very well. His kicks are nasty and he throws them effectively to the leg, body, and head. Takashi Sato is also a standup fighter and the much more experienced guy. He generally uses movement on the feet, bouncing on his toes and moving in and out. He has a good straight left from the southpaw stance and throws it down the pipe. He wants to keep the fight standing and use his movement and fast hands to beat his opponents up. Unfortunately, he relies on his speed too much and doesn’t always show sound defense. He keeps his chin is too high and his hands are too low, particularly his lead right hand. The left hand counter from a traditional stance is there all day long against Sato, and I'm thinking that's where Baeza can shine. He should be able to find Sato’s chin early and often, and the power of Miguel will be a little too much for Sato. Another weakness for Sato is his TDD, it's far too easy to get in on his legs and take him to the mat, where he has shown many holes. Baeza has shown he has the wrestling capability and can take this fight to the mat if the rounds get close. Baeza does seem to slow down in the third round which may be of concern, but short of becoming too exhausted to fight, I think he takes this to the bank...by decision at worse.
[FONT="]nice
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[FONT="]
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[FONT="][3-8 -12.26u][/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]1309 Carlyle wins inside distance +100[/FONT]
[FONT="]3/3[/FONT]
[FONT="]1333 Carlyle wins by TKO/KO +155[/FONT]
[FONT="]2/3.1[/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="][3-8 -12.26u][/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]1309 Carlyle wins inside distance +100[/FONT]
[FONT="]3/3[/FONT]
[FONT="]1333 Carlyle wins by TKO/KO +155[/FONT]
[FONT="]2/3.1[/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]
[FONT="]guess I'm toast...rest of my card[/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]209 Parisian wins inside distance -145[/FONT]
[FONT="]2.9/2[/FONT]
[FONT="]1221 Parisian wins in round 1 +160[/FONT]
[FONT="]1/1.6[/FONT]
[FONT="]1002 Anthony Smith -115 vs Devin Clark[/FONT]
[FONT="]6.9/6[/FONT]
[FONT="]1102 Miguel Baeza -200 vs Takashi Sato[/FONT]
[FONT="]4/2[/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]209 Parisian wins inside distance -145[/FONT]
[FONT="]2.9/2[/FONT]
[FONT="]1221 Parisian wins in round 1 +160[/FONT]
[FONT="]1/1.6[/FONT]
[FONT="]1002 Anthony Smith -115 vs Devin Clark[/FONT]
[FONT="]6.9/6[/FONT]
[FONT="]1102 Miguel Baeza -200 vs Takashi Sato[/FONT]
[FONT="]4/2[/FONT]
[FONT="]
[/FONT]
[FONT="]
ANOTHER UGLY NIGHT: [6-13 -13.89u]
RECENT CARDS...
Total for last 20 cards: [223-202 +56.44u]
RECENT CARDS...
- 11/28 - ESPN 18 [6-13 -13.89]
- 11/21 - UFC 255 [8-26 -38.73u]
- 11/14 - ESPN+ 41 [10-7-1 +8.3u]
- 11/07 - ESPN+ 40 [15-9 +4.29u]
- 10/31 - ESPN+ 39 [16-8-1 +13.95u]
- 10/24 - UFC 254 [21-6 +20.36u]
- 10/17- ESPN+ 38 [11-11 +3.3u]
- 10/10- ESPN+ 37 [14-12 +8.19u]
- 10/3 - ESPN 17 [9-8-2 -0.17u]
- 9/26 - UFC 253 [8-14 -10.05u]
- 9/19 - ESPN+ 36 [11-9-1 +8.35u
- 9/12 - ESPN+ 35 [11-9 +25.8u]
- 9/05 - ESPN+ 34 [9-4 +9.72u]
- 8/28 - ESPN+33 [10-4 +7.83u]
- 8/22 - ESPN 15 [11-4 +9.15u]
- 8/15 - UFC 252 [12-9 +6.07u]
- 8/08 - ESPN+ 32 [10-12 -7.6u]
- 8/01 - ESPN+ 31 [8-9-1 -1.41u]
- 7/18 - ESPN+ 30 [10-6 +12.85u]
- 7/15 - ESPN 14 [8-12 +1.06u]
- 7/11 - UFC 251 [5-10 -10.93u]
Total for last 20 cards: [223-202 +56.44u]
