Tuesday Service Play Thread 12/01/2020

BuzzKill · Nov 28, 2020

Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post their daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

Posting guidelines - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1168075

Please do not post Twitter plays or forum member plays in this thread.

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sailfish · Dec 1, 2020

Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider Soccer Handicaper
Tuesday December 1st.
UEFA Champions League

Play #1
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid
Time: 12:55pm
Best Bet - Real Madrid -240

Play #2
Atalanta vs Midtjylland
Time: 3:00pm
Best Bet - Under 3.5 goals

Play #3
Liverpool vs Ajax
Time: 3:00 pm
Best Bet - Draw +325

Play #4
Borussia Monchengladbach vs Inter Milan
Time: 3:00pm
Best Bet - Borussia Monchengladbach +190

sailfish · Dec 1, 2020

10vipbets

EUROPE: Champions League
Marseille – Olympiacos Piraeus
Marseille
Odds : 2.30

sailfish · Dec 1, 2020

David Schwab (VegasInsider CBB)
Michigan State vs Duke
Time: 7:30pm - TV: ESPN

CBB
Best Bet - Duke -4
Regular Play - Over 151.5

SalD'Amore · Dec 1, 2020

RASelle dazzelle

Under Kansas

WillCover · Dec 1, 2020

Paul Leiner B000 BYU -4
e00* Over 152 Duke/Michigan State
a00* Purdue -22

WillCover · Dec 1, 2020

TSP (The Sharp Plays) material/small buys on Olympiakos CFP +0.25 (-124) over Marseille very small buying on Shakhtar Donetsk +1.25 (-112) over Real Madrid and the Liverpool UN3.5 (-125). CBB material buying on Michigan St +3.5 over Duke and Cleveland St/Toledo OV138.5

BatonRougeBoys · Dec 1, 2020

Mississippi Kid
Indiana-1.5 1U

RapidRacing · Dec 1, 2020

Baton Rouge Boys said:
Mississippi Kid
Indiana-1.5 1U

How good is this guy in College hoops? Fade or no?

RapidRacing · Dec 1, 2020

Conley Picks is selling his picks on Leiners site? Lol. Hilarious.

pjoyce5893 · Dec 1, 2020

CleInsiderSports

Central Michigan +4
Kentucky +4.5

nikossf · Dec 1, 2020

Sports Picks Weekly

NCAAB:
*Toledo -8
*FIU -4
USC/BYU Under -141
Saint Mary's -13 (-117)
Neb. Omaha/Creighton Over +147 (-115)

(Please note: SPW, Always buys half point up/down as necessary. All odds and spreads listed are with buying the extra half point, when listed as +/- 0.5.
For example:
Saint Mary's -13.5 down to -13. (-117)

brady1983 · Dec 1, 2020

WillCover said:
TSP (The Sharp Plays) material/small buys on Olympiakos CFP +0.25 (-124) over Marseille very small buying on Shakhtar Donetsk +1.25 (-112) over Real Madrid and the Liverpool UN3.5 (-125). CBB material buying on Michigan St +3.5 over Duke and Cleveland St/Toledo OV138.5

Are these hoops plays free from Twitter or his paid page?

CobraKai · Dec 1, 2020

Jen Barry
E0* Must Win College Hoops 3 Pack

Stanford Cardinal +4 over UNC
Washington Huskies -10.5 over UC Riverside
Louisville Cardinals +4 over Western Kentucky

kno · Dec 1, 2020

Insidersportsreport plz....TIA

sailfish · Dec 1, 2020

Insider Sports Report

4* Louisville -5 over Western Kentucky (NCAAB)
Range: -3.5 to -7.5

3* Duke -4 over Michigan St. (NCAAB)
Range: -2 to -6

3* South Dakota +13 over Nebraska (NCAAB)
Range: +15 to +11

deadheadct · Dec 1, 2020

Jack Winningham - Duke -3 over Mich st.

BatonRougeBoys · Dec 1, 2020

Mississippi Kid
NCAAB
Creighton -20 1U
Wisc -25 1U
Mich St +3 1U
Mich ST vs Duke Under 149.5 1U
Louisville -3.5 1U
Stanford +4 1.5U
UNLV vs Ala Over 155.5 1U

jdpII · Dec 1, 2020

mated 2020-21 Game PreviewValparaiso 0-1 (0.000) | Missouri Valley
-- AT --
UIC 2-0 (1.000) | Horizon

Includes games through November 30, 2020.
Data shown on this page is based on time-dependent ratings.

0.480 (186[SUP]th[/SUP])

All-Play Percentage

0.601 (144[SUP]th[/SUP])

0.854 (32[SUP]nd[/SUP])

Schedule Strength

0.353 (182[SUP]nd[/SUP])

-0.270 (272[SUP]nd[/SUP])

Record Quality

0.395 (49[SUP]th[/SUP])

182.71 (184[SUP]th[/SUP])

Avg. Season Rank

143.57 (143[SUP]rd[/SUP])

TBD (TBD)

Momentum

TBD (TBD)

Consistency

TBD (TBD)

Away/Home Court

TBD (TBD)

69.19 (211[SUP]th[/SUP])

Pace

71.07 (74[SUP]th[/SUP])

IN POSSESSION

	VALP	UIC
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	97.60	194	96.85	115
FTAR	23.77	278	27.11	282
FT%	68.05	239	--	--
FGAR	82.22	157	80.07	68
FG%	43.29	167	42.91	121
3P%	33.24	198	30.79	27
MR%	36.25	235	36.93	132
NP%	59.10	153	59.41	161
PPSt	11.78	114	10.12	54
SCC%	4.54	243	5.27	215
Prox	2.02	138	2.00	274

IN POSSESSION

	UIC	VALP
Cat	Rtg	Rk	Rtg	Rk
Eff	98.54	174	102.31	248
FTAR	25.34	172	24.81	167
FT%	60.49	353	--	--
FGAR	83.63	70	82.06	190
FG%	43.46	156	44.74	238
3P%	33.04	221	34.68	291
MR%	36.72	205	37.32	157
NP%	59.26	147	59.22	152
PPSt	12.41	78	10.81	111
SCC%	4.75	205	5.65	289
Prox	2.02	148	1.98	319

VALPARAISO IN POSSESSION:
When analytically matched up against the UIC defense, this Valparaiso offense stands to be at somewhat of a disadvantage. The UIC defense is ranked #115 in Division I, while Valparaiso comes in nationally at #194 on offense.

	SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. Both schemes are relatively balanced, and neither the outside shot nor the inside shot will be consistently employed/allowed by either ball-club. Against the UIC defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the Valparaiso offense will be 35.4% three-pointers (2.4% below the D1 average), 25.8% mid-range jumpers (2.9% below the D1 average), and 38.7% near-proximity twos (5.3% above the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Valparaiso has been rather mediocre (by NCAA standards) in field goal percentage, rated 167th nationally in that category this year. The UIC defense, meanwhile, has performed a bit better than average in defensive field goal percentage (rated our #121 team nationally in that category). On this end of the court, the UIC defense gets the analytical nod in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in near-proximity shooting. This site expects Valparaiso to shoot 30.3% from three (2.7% below the D1 average), 35.2% from the mid-range (2.2% below the D1 average), 58.1% from near-proximity locations (1.3% below the D1 average), and 42.4% overall (0.7% below the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: UIC may have a small rebounding edge on this end of the court. Valparaiso lies somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack in the category of offensive rebounding. They are somewhat below-average at turning second-chance opportunities into points (rated 243rd nationally in second-chance conversion percentage). The opposition here, UIC, has the markings of a team that's above-average on the defensive glass, but they're slightly worse in defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #215 in the country in that department).
	TURNOVERS: Neither team has much of an advantage in this category. When in possession, Valparaiso exemplifies ball-security to a degree slightly superior to the average NCAA team. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is respectable, as the squad places 111th in the country in that category. Meanwhile, the UIC D is probably a bit more aggressive than average in Division I basketball. They rate well in our analytics on this front, landing at #78 in the nation in potential quick points scored off steals and #68 in defensive field goal attempt rate.
	FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. The Valparaiso offense isn't all that great at getting to the charity stripe (nationally ranked #278 in free throw attempt rate), and they're a below-average unit at converting their foul shots (68.0%, 239th in the country). Meanwhile, the contentious UIC defense predictably commits a significant number of fouls, ranking 282nd in the country in defensive free throw attempt rate.

UIC IN POSSESSION:
Analytically speaking, UIC should come out ahead by a modest margin on this end of the court. This site rates UIC to be 174th in the nation in offensive efficiency, while Valparaiso is currently our #248 squad in defensive efficiency.

	SHOT SELECTION: These two units prefer similar shot locations on this end of the court. Both schemes are relatively balanced, and neither the outside shot nor the inside shot will be consistently employed/allowed by either ball-club. Against the Valparaiso defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the UIC offense will be 36.5% three-pointers (1.3% below the D1 average), 22.7% mid-range jumpers (6.1% below the D1 average), and 40.8% near-proximity twos (7.4% above the D1 average).
	SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: UIC rates in the middle of the Division I pack when it comes to floor shooting and is currently ranked #156 in overall field goal conversion rate. Meanwhile, the Valparaiso defense is currently rated a bit worse than the D1 average in defensive field goal percentage (#238 in the country). On this end of the court, the UIC offense has the ratings advantage in three-point shooting, the Valparaiso defense has the edge in mid-range shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in near-proximity shooting. We expect UIC to shoot 35.3% from behind the arc (2.3% above the D1 average), 37.1% from mid-range locations (0.3% below the D1 average), 59.9% from near-proximity (0.5% above the D1 average), and 45.8% overall (2.7% above the D1 average).
	REBOUNDING: UIC may have a slight rebounding advantage on this end. UIC appears to be a fairly mediocre NCAA team on the offensive boards. As for converting their second-chance opportunities, they're similarly run-of-the-mill by D1 standards (nationally rated 205th in that category). Their opponent in this matchup, Valparaiso, has the look of a team that is pretty mediocre on the defensive boards, but they have been worse keeping their opponents' putback conversion percentages down (ranked 289th in the nation in defensive second-chance conversion rate).
	TURNOVERS: The UIC offense should keep the ball fairly secure here against the Valparaiso defense. Offensively, UIC exhibits fairly good ball-control and limits turnovers. Their field goal attempt rate is well above-average (rated 70th in the country), while their rating for potential quick points allowed off of steals is very solid (54th in the country). As for the opposition, the Valparaiso D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective. They are accomplished to a degree at converting turnovers into quick points on the scoreboard (nationally ranked 114th in that category).
	FREE THROWS: These two squads are matched fairly evenly in this department. UIC is a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (172nd in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're absolutely pitiful marksmen from the line (60.5%, ranked #353 in Division I). As for the opposition, the Valparaiso D has a defensive free throw attempt rate that lands somewhere in the middle of the D1 pack (ranked 167th nationally in that category).

THE X-FACTORS:

PACE: The projected tempo for this contest is fairly average by D1 standards. UIC (74th in the NCAA in game pace) favors a brisk tempo, while Valparaiso (211th) likes things at more of an average clip.

THE VERDICT:
Valparaiso certainly has a shot to win here, but the numbers tell us that UIC is the right choice. UIC 70.45, Valparaiso 63.67.

Kewlassht · Dec 1, 2020

Balfe, ncaab? Seems to be doing well on hoops

Tuesday Service Play Thread 12/01/2020

Let's go Brandon!

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