Sunday Service Play Thread 12/06/2020

BuzzKill · Nov 28, 2020

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Yankees5560 · Dec 2, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Dec 6 2020 1:00PM
451 DET 6.0(-115) Bookmaker vs 452 CHI triple-dime bet

Analysis: This is one of my bigger power rating discrepancies of the entire season. There are a lot of 5.5's out there right now with Bookmaker dealing the +6 -115, but I like this as a 3* all the way down to 3.5.

I make this game Chicago -2 if Detroit has no Golladay. If Golladay plays, my numbers have Chicago -1 on this game.

Yankees5560 · Dec 2, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Dec 6 2020 1:00PM
465 CLE 6.0(-110) Bookmaker vs 466 TEN double-dime bet

Analysis: Some of our best bets this year have been on Titans games, with one major handicap: We like to bet the Titans as underdogs, but like to fade them as favorites. I see this game being no different against Cleveland.

Baker Mayfield has a 11-7 SU record against teams that do not rank in the top third of the league in pressure rate, but when teams can pressure him, his production falls off a cliff. The Titans rank 31st in the NFL in pressure rate and the Browns have one of the leagues best offensive lines, likely ensuring clean pockets for Mayfield. We know Cleveland can run the ball on just about anyone, and now we likely will get to see a productive day from their passing game as well.

Despite a 8-3 SU record, last week was the first game this entire season that the Titans won by more then one score. The Browns have defensive injuries, but let's not forget the Titans have their own injury problems as well at the offensive line position as well as every level of their defense.

I make this game Titans -3 -120, giving us clear value on Cleveland

Yankees5560 · Dec 2, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Dec 6 2020 1:00PM
455 IND / 456 HOU UNDER 51.5 Westgatedouble-dime bet

Analysis: Do not believe the market is adjusting enough for the Colts and Texans offensive injuries.

Deshaun Watson throws for 55 less YPG, 1 less passing TD per game, and 1.5 less YPA when Fuller is out of the lineup. It's not just a few game trend either, this is over a 18 game sample size where Watson still had DeAndre Hopkins to lean on when Fuller was not playing. Not only are the Texans without Fuller, but they are also without their third WR Randall Cobb and just released their fourth wideout Kenny Stills. The bread and butter of Deshaun Watson's game is the deep passing game, but he is now left without any quality pass catchers outside of Brandin Cooks to go deep against a Colts defense whos zone based defense schematically takes away deep passes.

The Colts offense underperformed last week against a putrid Titans defense. The Colts started out hot, gaining 150 yards and scoring on their first two drives, however that all changed once LT Anthony Castonzo left the game with an injury. Once Castonzo left with an injury, the Colts proceeded to average only 3.9 YPP for the remainder of the game. Not only is Castonzo out this week, but the Colts could also be without C Ryan Kelly, troublesome because QB Phillip Rivers is one of the most protection dependent quarterbacks in the NFL.

Last year these two teams played two games that had 37 and 43 points. With the injuries on the offensive side of the ball and familiarity between these two teams, expect more of the same!

Yankees5560 · Dec 2, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Dec 6 2020 4:05PM
467 NYG / 468 SEA UNDER 47.0 William Hill double-dime bet

Analysis: Two teams playing slower then they were earlier in the season and running the ball at a higher rate.

The Giants are 28th in pace over the last month, and their defense is allowing the fewest PPG in the NFL over the last month! Colt McCoy is one of the weakest arm quarterbacks in the NFL, known mostly for being a conservative game manager.

Seattle's defense has allowed 6.4 and 4.8 YPA in their last two games, and HC Pete Carroll is convinced this is based off Seattle becoming more run heavy, which protects the Seattle defense. The Seahawks are last in the NFL in pace over the past two weeks, and they are also averaging 8 less pass attempts per game then they were previously in the season.

Once Jones is officially ruled out, which I expect, I would not be surprised if this number crashes even further.

Yankees5560 · Dec 2, 2020

Warren Sharp

465 Cleveland Browns Over 53 -115 (0.75 units)

ryangenero · Dec 4, 2020

Football Jesus Colts ,Rams

terrortwylight · Dec 4, 2020

Spreitzer
G Toledo -2

terrortwylight · Dec 4, 2020

VSI / Esparza
C Florida Int'l -5

DoubleB · Dec 4, 2020

Clays 6 pack: U 44.5 Chicago
O 51 Houston
U 42.5 Miami
Raiders -8.5
LAC +1
Bills -1.5

Blazing 5: Cleveland +5.5
Rama -3
NE-1
Eagles +8.5
49’s +1.5

Iron · Dec 4, 2020

NY Daily News
K. Wagner (10-2) Ari +3
T. Biersdorfer (8-2-2) Ind -3
P. Leonard (9-3) Was +9.5
D. Young (7-4) Min -9.5
A. Clayton (7-4-1) LV -8
W. Pakutka (7-5) Pit -9.5

Iron · Dec 4, 2020

NY Post
Dunleavy (25-11) GB -8; Was +8.5; Bal -8.5
Serby (21-14-1) Jets +8.5; Cin +11.5; NE -1
Kussoy (20-16) Cle +6; Was +8.5; Buf -1.5
Stitches (19-16-1) Ind -3.5; GB -8; NE -1

Loftis (10-26) Det +3; Cle +6; Was +8.5
Schwartz (11-23-2) Cle +6; NE -1; Was +8.5
Cannizzaro (13-23) Sea -10; NO -2.5; KC -14
Blezow (13-20-3) Was +8.5; SF +1.5; Dal +8.5 (Lock 3-8-1 = SF)

GalenThomas · Dec 5, 2020

Colin's Blazin 5 / NOTE: COLIN HAS THE ' SHARP SIDE' OF EVERY NFL GAME ( We are looking a 4-1 or 5-0 here) Heads up: Take advantage of these plays!
*Browns + 5.5
*Rams -3
*NE-1
*Philly + 8.5
*San Fran +1

JayGrace · Dec 5, 2020

Bill Simmons- 10 point teaser-Titans , Vikings & Raiders,
patriots-1, 49ers +1 & giants moneyline

BuzzKill · Dec 5, 2020

Newsletters - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=326&p=13345744&viewfull=1#post13345744

sdf · Dec 5, 2020

anyone interested in MTI this week? there's 3 of us (bigdawg and mj23) so far

RapidRacing · Dec 5, 2020

Big AL Division GOY

Atlanta Falcons+

BuzzKill · Dec 5, 2020

Larry Harstein

Minnesota -9.5

nikossf · Dec 6, 2020

Sports Picks Weekly

NFL:
*Las Vegas -7 (-130)
Las Vegas TT Over +28
*Jacksonville +11 (-130)
*Green Bay -8
Detroit +3
Indianapolis/Houston Over +50 (-116)

NCAAF:
*USC -12

NCAAB:
Missouri -5
Marist -9 (-118)

BigPapa · Dec 6, 2020

Rainman

Sunday Service Play Thread 12/06/2020

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