Week 14: Covid Season Coming to a Close

This looks like the last full schedule of games, although by the weekend, it'll be less of course. One of the hardest things to cap is knowing who is missing players due to the virus. Coaches have been secretive, gamblers are guessing, and we wait for a weird bowl season. Good week last week, winning about 12 units. UB-Kent game was in the bag early.

YTD: 62-55, +9.02 units

Early games:
1* La. Tech -2.5 I guess this line is low because La. Tech lost 3 players who opted out. RB Justin Henderson, who was having a poor season, LT Campbell, who was originally going to be a guard(?), and the one player they will miss- WR Adrian Hardy. Part of this play is that even though LT hasn't played a game in a month, they were competitive their last 3 games, beating UAB, and losing by 1 to UTSA, and while losing by 18 to Marshall, held their run game in check. Another reason LT looks good here is that UNT is very weak defensively. Run and pass defense. That should help the losses on offense for LT. Another dagger for UNT is that their QB situation is not good at all in the passing dept. Jason Bean, the young QB for UNT, can run for sure, but is raw as a passer. I think Skip Holtz and staff will be able to scheme for Bean's running game, and LT physically beats up on this soft UNT defense. After all, with time off last bowl season, LT schemed Miami, FL to zero points in their bowl matchup.

1* App. State -2.5 Counting on App. State to continue their very strong home play. App. State has played really well in these end of the season big games. I also like their creative play calling in these big games. ULL is more predictable. ULL also has been a fairly poor run defense, which considering their weak schedule, is surprising. App. State's loss to CCU could have gone either way, but the pick 6 at the end made the score look worse than the closeness of play on the field. ULL HC Billy Napier, and his players, could be distracted by all of the rumors of him leaving for another job. He is in high demand. ULL has also had a few too many close games with weak opponents, in games they were supposed to dominate.

3* Buffalo -11 Ohio loses its QB to injury, and it is now in the hands of UNLV transfer Armani Rogers. Rogers is fairly limited as a passer. At UNLV, he was benched a couple of times due to his abysmal passing numbers. Ohio has only played one respectable team, CMU (and I use that term loosely). If you saw CMU's defense get destroyed by WMU, then you can see that Ohio hasn't played any respectable defenses. Another win was with Akron, a game that Ohio was out-yarded by 130 yards. If not for TOs, Akron would have likely won. Then they beat up Bowling Green. I think this Ohio team is wholly unprepared for the UB running attack. The Bobcats won't cave as badly as Kent did, but if Akron can run for 5.1 ypc, and Bowling Green can run for 5.7 ypc vs. this Ohio D, UB will dominate. Kyle Vantrease, the UB QB has not had to be a lifesaver with their run game, but he hasn't been sacked yet, and has a 5-1 TD-Int. ratio. He is a 60% passer, and has a go-to receiver in Antonio Nunn. Buffalo's defense is vulnerable to a really good passing game, but with Rogers QBing, it's not likely to be a problem. For motivation, the Bulls have lost the last 2 seasons to Ohio- 2 games where Ohio QB Nathan O'Rourke tormented them(glad he's gone).

The PAC 12 seems to have parity, if not any teams remotely close to the elite national playoff level. The points given to underdogs seem tempting in many cases.

3* UCLA +3 UCLA might be 2-2, but I believe they are one of the top 3 or 4 teams in the conference. Yes, they were lucky to get Cal on short notice, but they would have likely won a closer game. With their freshman QB, playing his 1st game, they coulda, maybe shoulda, beat Oregon. I saw much of that game, and thought UCLA manhandled the Ducks on both of sides of the ball much of the time(but -3 in turnovers). Then if you throw out UCLA's 1st quarter of their 1st game with Colorado (who is much better than we thought), when they fumbled and screwed up every way possible and falling behind 28-7, they have played well. They lead the conference defensively in tackles for losses, and you can see the improvement in tackling. They get back almost all their guys from the Covid "sit-out", including DRT. Felton, Dulcich and Phillips give them 3 very good playmakers on offense..even the secondary offensive playmakers look good. ASU had a horrific covid outbreak, meaning they have played one game, and not in a month. Very possible they some lingering cases, or quarantined players still sitting out. Their defense is a ? that benefitted greatly from 4 USC turnovers. Jayden Daniels is a running threat, but he looked rusty passing, and might be once again after not playing for a month. ASU also suspended their top DB, and a key backup DB, for the game for team conduct issues. UCLA, under Chip Kelly, looks like a much improved team. If they avoid stupid TOs, they win here.

o fred said:

The PAC 12 seems to have parity, if not any teams remotely close to the elite national playoff level. The points given to underdogs seem tempting in many cases.

3* UCLA +3 UCLA might be 2-2, but I believe they are one of the top 3 or 4 teams in the conference. Yes, they were lucky to get Cal on short notice, but they would have likely won a closer game. With their freshman QB, playing his 1st game, they coulda, maybe shoulda, beat Oregon. I saw much of that game, and thought UCLA manhandled the Ducks on both of sides of the ball much of the time(but -3 in turnovers). Then if you throw out UCLA's 1st quarter of their 1st game with Colorado (who is much better than we thought), when they fumbled and screwed up every way possible and falling behind 28-7, they have played well. They lead the conference defensively in tackles for losses, and you can see the improvement in tackling. They get back almost all their guys from the Covid "sit-out", including DRT. Felton, Dulcich and Phillips give them 3 very good playmakers on offense..even the secondary offensive playmakers look good. ASU had a horrific covid outbreak, meaning they have played one game, and not in a month. Very possible they some lingering cases, or quarantined players still sitting out. Their defense is a ? that benefitted greatly from 4 USC turnovers. Jayden Daniels is a running threat, but he looked rusty passing, and might be once again after not playing for a month. ASU also suspended their top DB, and a key backup DB, for the game for team conduct issues. UCLA, under Chip Kelly, looks like a much improved team. If they avoid stupid TOs, they win here.

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Two other impressive stats for UCLA: (D)32 tackles for losses in just 4 games. (O) Just 3 sacks allowed for 11 yards in 4 games.

Fred.......BOL with all your action this weekend buddy......on UCLA and Buff. with you......

will probably add the others this weekend.......great info and write ups.......indy

ive learned from betting UCLA games u bet them as a dog never as a favorite so I like tem this week

Lots of sharp money coming in on UNT. I'll keep my play on La. Tech, but have scaled it back a bit. LT loses by one to UTSA, while UNT gets killed by the same team??? WR Adrian Hardy opt-out maybe the cause.

So far, these are the only 2* that look solid. More by Friday?

2* Oregon State +11 Oregon St. is coming off their upset of their in-state rivals, Oregon. Otherwise, this would be more appealing. Their starting QB, Gebbia, is not likely to play, but the backup(Chance Nolan) might be more talented as a passer and a runner, but less familiar with the offense. He won't have to carry the offense with RB Jermar Jefferson being the main focus of opposing defenses. Jefferson has 674 yards in 4 games, at 7.4 ypc, and is usually good for multiple long runs per game. Utah has been loaded in past years with defensive studs, but has lost too many players to the NFL the past 2 seasons. They are still a physical defense, but just not able to shut down teams anymore. And though Utah has quite a few returnees on offense, Ty Huntley and Zack Moss were so much of their offense 2018-2019, their offense looks much less able to score more than 20-30 points. Huntley was excellent at buying time to pass, and in designed and impromptu running plays, that this year's turnover-prone Jacob Bentley version is not able to overcome the vast losses on defense. Also, without the insanely loud Utah home crowd, Oregon State will not be at such a disadvantage when on offense. I think this line is high mostly because no one can imagine Utah going 0-3 in their home stadium with Kyle Whittingham as HC. I get that, but the Beavers will keep it close with a great run game, an improved defense, and possibly pull the upset.

2* Clemson -22 Three things make this a good chance of a Clemson cover: 1) If Clemson gets a big lead, backup QB DJ Uiagelelei will continue the offensive beatdown of a terrible VT defense. 2) Clemson gets back some of their defensive starters from injuries, and the younger players who replaced them, have some experience now. 3) DC Venables designed a great gameplan to defend Miami's D'eriq King. I think he'll do the same for Hendon Hooker. VT depends so much on Hooker, too much.

VT also has one factor that plays poorly toward the end of a football season, a defense that tackles poorly and can't stop the run or the pass well. Trevor Lawrence now has playing time under his belt, and while he looked pretty good vs. a strong Pitt defense, I think he crushes this Hokie D. Clemson can even give up a few scores here and still cover handily.

Debating whether to make these 1* or 2*, so they are somewhere between.

1.3* Rice +2 Rice finally has a QB that can accurately complete passes. TCU transfer Mike Collins also has 3 targets that should be able to keep them in this ball game. Rice won't be able to run vs. Marshall, so their passing game will be instrumental to any chances of scoring. Another key is that Rice has a veteran defense, with a pretty good LB corps. Marshall runs the ball often, and if the Rice D can limit the big plays on the ground, the clock should help Rice stay within this number. In my viewing of Marshall, they have dominated some of the really bad teams like UMass, EKU, MTSU...and has had closer, more competitive games with other opponents. Rice is a high effort team, that is motivated whatever the score, and they will make Marshall work hard for this victory.

1.5* Cal +10 Every football season Cal has a glaring weakness or two. This season it seems that they are a decent football team that can't seem to win a game. Since the UCLA game, a game which they had almost no prep time, Cal had every chance to win vs. Oregon State and Stanford. The way Oregon's defense is playing now, Cal has a chance to win this game. The Ducks are not hanging their heads after losing to their in-state rivals, OSU. Yet they have issues that remain. The OL, while not terrible, is not close to the level of 2019's version. QB Tyler Shough has been under pressure too often, and has committed some turnovers because of it. The Duck defense lost their two best DBs to opt-outs, and it shows. Their secondary allows too much space in coverage of receivers. The front 7 has two studs, but the rest of the 7 is not getting it done. Tackling and getting pushed by OLs has plagued the defense. Cal looks like they can run and pass the ball effectively, and I expect further improvement in this game. Cal is waiting on two OL returning from quarantine, but it looks hopeful they will play. Cal might also be the best defense that Oregon has seen, except for maybe UCLA. Cal getting 10 here, in a game they can win, is a bonus.

Seems like the books are begging for Stanford money. 11 points vs. a young Husky team seems like a lot. Will probably put UW on a teaser, and maybe a straight play.

1* Tennessee +17.5 My hold the nose play of the week. The Vols will play their veteran QB, who is turnover prone, and their young QB, who is well...a freshman. Florida has struggled defensively all season to stop even some mediocre offenses. But Tennessee actually has some decent playmakers on offense, and I'm taking the risk that their QBs can get them the ball and exploit the Gator D. UF got UK's Terry Wilson on a day where Wilson looked hopeless...gave up 400+ yards to Vandy...while Florida has also had less success offensively in the past 2 weeks. Tennessee can at least match them physically in the line play.

1* BYU -10 ​What BYU did to Boise was pure domination. Also was surprised to learn that BYU is 13th nationally in defensive efficiency (which takes into account SOS and garbage time). CCU is 30th in DE. I just think BYU will be better to adjust to a game with little time to prep. BYU is very likely the best defense that CCU will have faced, and BYU's offense is EASILY the best offense CCU has faced. CCU might be more focused on the Sun Belt title, while BYU is more of a mercenary team that just wants an undefeated record. Zach Wilson looks to be the 3rd or 4th best QB in the draft, after Lawrence, and maybe Fields and Trask. Wilson's scrambling ability is a factor too. CCU's tough DL will be somewhat neutralized by an excellent BYU OL.

o fred said:

Seems like the books are begging for Stanford money. 11 points vs. a young Husky team seems like a lot. Will probably put UW on a teaser, and maybe a straight play.

1* Tennessee +17.5 My hold the nose play of the week. The Vols will play their veteran QB, who is turnover prone, and their young QB, who is well...a freshman. Florida has struggled defensively all season to stop even some mediocre offenses. But Tennessee actually has some decent playmakers on offense, and I'm taking the risk that their QBs can get them the ball and exploit the Gator D. UF got UK's Terry Wilson on a day where Wilson looked hopeless...gave up 400+ yards to Vandy...while Florida has also had less success offensively in the past 2 weeks. Tennessee can at least match them physically in the line play.

1* BYU -10 ​What BYU did to Boise was pure domination. Also was surprised to learn that BYU is 13th nationally in defensive efficiency (which takes into account SOS and garbage time). CCU is 30th in DE. I just think BYU will be better to adjust to a game with little time to prep. BYU is very likely the best defense that CCU will have faced, and BYU's offense is EASILY the best offense CCU has faced. CCU might be more focused on the Sun Belt title, while BYU is more of a mercenary team that just wants an undefeated record. Zach Wilson looks to be the 3rd or 4th best QB in the draft, after Lawrence, and maybe Fields and Trask. Wilson's scrambling ability is a factor too. CCU's tough DL will be somewhat neutralized by an excellent BYU OL.

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I listened to two different UF/UT podcasts today - both podcasts had a Tenn (media) guy on and they both said that Gauartano won't play, he's been in quarantine for over a week and has not been with the team.

CoachCB said:

I listened to two different UF/UT podcasts today - both podcasts had a Tenn (media) guy on and they both said that Gauartano won't play, he's been in quarantine for over a week and has not been with the team.

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That could be a good thing. Bailey or Maurer it is.

o fred said:

3* Buffalo -11 Ohio loses its QB to injury, and it is now in the hands of UNLV transfer Armani Rogers. Rogers is fairly limited as a passer. At UNLV, he was benched a couple of times due to his abysmal passing numbers. Ohio has only played one respectable team, CMU (and I use that term loosely). If you saw CMU's defense get destroyed by WMU, then you can see that Ohio hasn't played any respectable defenses. Another win was with Akron, a game that Ohio was out-yarded by 130 yards. If not for TOs, Akron would have likely won. Then they beat up Bowling Green. I think this Ohio team is wholly unprepared for the UB running attack. The Bobcats won't cave as badly as Kent did, but if Akron can run for 5.1 ypc, and Bowling Green can run for 5.7 ypc vs. this Ohio D, UB will dominate. Kyle Vantrease, the UB QB has not had to be a lifesaver with their run game, but he hasn't been sacked yet, and has a 5-1 TD-Int. ratio. He is a 60% passer, and has a go-to receiver in Antonio Nunn. Buffalo's defense is vulnerable to a really good passing game, but with Rogers QBing, it's not likely to be a problem. For motivation, the Bulls have lost the last 2 seasons to Ohio- 2 games where Ohio QB Nathan O'Rourke tormented them(glad he's gone).

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Cancelled.

1* Colorado St. +7.5. SD State looks about the same team as they have in past years. Good defense yes, but the running game is not what it used to be. And the nice offensive stats they do have are vs. the worst of the Mt. West defenses- Utah St, UNLV, Hawaii...Their 3 losses showed just how poor their passing offense is. Colorado St. has an improved run defense, something they haven't had in years. They also have 13 sacks in just 3 games. With Patrick O'Brien at QB and the playmakers CSU has, they should be able to keep the game close, with a decent chance for an upright upset. CSU could be a little rusty, but they do get back the majority of their players back from quarantine.

Two plays that should go either 1-1 or 2-0.

1* Ball St/ CMU- over 63

1* WMU/ EMU- over 66 I have seen enough MAC football to know just how bad their defenses are. Miami and Buffalo are somewhat respectable, but the rest are pretty pathetic. Just take WMU, a 4-0 team that is 111th in defensive efficiency. EMU is 107th. All 4 teams also have very capable QBs. All of them except EMU have a some very good offensive playmakers. These players (against MAC Ds) tend to get into the secondary and turn a 3-5 yard gain into much more. WMU is especially loaded with dynamic receivers and RBs. I expect EMU will have to pass often just to keep up- with the clock stopping more on incomplete passes than on running plays. Ball State might have the best passing QB in the MAC. CMU and WMU had a 96 point game. Weather will be cool for both games, but no rain and light wind.

Some adjustments:
1* Auburn +6 Bo Nix can drive an Auburn fan and bettor crazy, but I think Auburn at home here vs. a consistently underperforming A&M team, getting 6, is too good to pass up. Mond plays really well, I probably lose.

1* Washington -11 In the PAC 12, no one team excels. Yet this line only got larger and never moved. More bets on Stanford, more money on UW. The Huskies are young, but are starting to develop into a solid team. Their pass defense is the PAC 12 best, which should counter the one thing Stanford does well with Davis Mills and his couple of good receivers. Just seems that books are desperate for Stanford money giving them 11 vs. somewhat rebuilt UW team. Watch for Husky QB to have a nice game- great comeback last week.

A little more on BYU. Another line that just sits there. BYU defense is underrated. Also, BYU has blown out just about everybody...and yes a mostly weak schedule, but what can they do except beat up opponents bad? Also, 4th quarter, and even earlier has been a lot of garbage time for BYU. Would their stats be even more impressive over an entire game.