Sunday Service Play Thread 12/13/2020

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BuzzKill

BuzzKill

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Yankees5560

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178 BUF 0.0(-110) Bookmaker vs 177 PIT double-dime bet

Analysis: Short and sweet. I think Buffalo goes off the favorite in this game, and it's already heading that way at Pinnacle. Pittsburgh is dealing with injuries to their defense that are finally catching up to them (Dupree, Bush, Haden in concussion protocol). Pittsburgh is reliant on their defensive front to get pressure in order to hide a shaky secondary, and against a mobile quarterback like Allen, I think their secondary gets exposed. Pittsburgh has also become increasingly one dimensional on offense as well.


Money poured in against Pittsburgh last night, likely because of a terrible scheduling spot, and this scheduling spot is even worse, as it will be the Steelers third game in 11 days.


 

Yankees5560

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Hitman


178 BUF 0.0(-110) Bookmaker vs 177 PIT double-dime bet

Analysis: Short and sweet. I think Buffalo goes off the favorite in this game, and it's already heading that way at Pinnacle. Pittsburgh is dealing with injuries to their defense that are finally catching up to them (Dupree, Bush, Haden in concussion protocol). Pittsburgh is reliant on their defensive front to get pressure in order to hide a shaky secondary, and against a mobile quarterback like Allen, I think their secondary gets exposed. Pittsburgh has also become increasingly one dimensional on offense as well.


Money poured in against Pittsburgh last night, likely because of a terrible scheduling spot, and this scheduling spot is even worse, as it will be the Steelers third game in 11 days.
 

Yankees5560

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HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Dec 13 2020 4:05PM
169 NYJ / 170 SEA UNDER 47.5 William Hill double-dime bet

Analysis: With Seattle going back to their run heavy ways, and HC Pete Carroll openly saying this week that he wants to get RB Chris Carson more touches, we fire for the second straight week on a Seattle under. IMO, the number has just simply not been adjusted enough for this philosophical change.


Seattle's defense the last two weeks has held opposing quarterbacks to 6.4, 4.8, and 4.8 YPP. The Jets will also be without WR Denzel Mims.


Plus, one psychological advantage I believe we have is that the Jets defense is going to play a lot less aggressively based off of the ending of last weeks game. The "Zero blitz" and the over aggressiveness of Gregg Williams has become the scapegoat for why the Jets lost against the Raiders.


 

Yankees5560

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HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Dec 13 2020 1:00PM
158 NYG 3.0(-115) Bookmaker vs 157 ARI double-dime bet

Analysis: I make this number Arizona -1 if Jones is playing, and Arizona -3 if McCoy is playing. I believe there is a better then 50% chance we get Jones, and I also love the matchup for this Giants defense against Kyler Murray.


Murray is clearly not 100%, evidenced by him having only 3 designed runs per game since his shoulder injury occured. In Murray's last two games, he has a pathetic 5.0 and 4.4 YPA stat line to go along with his unwillingness to run the ball. The weapons in the pass game outside of Hopkins are not there for Arizona, and the Giants have a shut down cornerback in James Bradberry to neutralize Hopkins, who has not surpassed 52 receiving yards in any of his last three games.


Giants are an ascending team while Arizona is on a downward trend. I like this bet a lot if we get Jones, and even if we get McCoy, I still lean Giants being the right side!
 

Yankees5560

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HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Dec 13 2020 1:00PM
165 KAN -1.0(-120) Bookmaker vs 166 MIA triple-dime bet

Analysis: 3* 6 PT TEASER: Chiefs -1/Saints -0.5 -120




Miami is a fraudulent team who has had one of the worst offenses in the NFL over the past six weeks, and has benefitted greatly from playing the leagues easiest schedule YTD. Kansas City is fighting for the 1 seed, so we will get the Chiefs in a max motivation spot, and Patrick Mahomes has absolutely lit up the style of defense that Miami plays.


In our write ups for the Chiefs games against Baltimore and KC, we mentioned how man coverage heavy defenses that blitz a lot are the type of defenses that Mahomes eats alive. Well, this season against Tampa and Baltimore, Mahomes has a stat line of 68-91, 847 yards, 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions .Mahomes is averaging 9.4 yards per pass attempt against the blitz with 11 touchdowns to zero interceptions. Miami also runs a man coverage heavy blitz happy defense. Miami all year has been a team relying on it's defense to win games, and they will not be able to do that against the Chiefs.


Meanwhile, the Saints defense is playing like they are the best defense in the NFL. The Saints have allowed 44 total points over the past five games with 6.0 yards per pass attempt in those games to go with two total touchdown passes. The Saints are second in YPA allowed on the ground, and have been pressuring the quarterback better then anyone since the return of DE Marcus Davenport.


QB Jalen Hurts is just not ready in my opinion to be a starting NFL quarterback, and this is the worst possible matchup for him to have. The Saints are also 8-0 SUATS without Drew Brees (the rest of the team has picked up the slack in those games), and the Saints have a league best 11.2 point differential on the road this year. Going back to 2016, the Saints are the best road team in the NFL.


Two elite teams fighting for the one seed in the conference, I do not expect a letdown!
 

Yankees5560

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Warren sharp

Adds:
167 Indianapolis Colts Over 51 (0.75 units)
159 Houston Texans Over 45 -115 (0.75 units)
___
163 Minnesota Vikings Over 51 (buy 0.5 for -120) (1 unit)
177 Pittsburgh Steelers Over 46.5 (1 unit)
open
 
METFAN

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Tenn -1.5/ Bears +8.5

GIANNA THE GREEK GAMBLER
Bears +8.5/Chargers +6.5
 

Iron

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Colin Cowherd Blazing 5 (30-33-2)
Ten -7.5
Mia +7
Gia +2.5
Buf -2
Cle +2.5
 

Iron

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NY Daily News
P. Leonard (10-3) GB -7.5
K. Wagner (10-3) Car -3.5
T. Biersdorfer (9-2-2) KC -7
 

Iron

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NY Post
Dunleavy (27-12) Ind -2.5; NO -7; Pit +1.5
Serby (23-15-1) Ten -7.5; Ind -2.5; Bal -1.5
Kussoy (23-16) KC -7; SF -3; Bal -1.5
Stitches (22-16-1) KC -7; Den +3.5; Atl -2.5

Loftis (13-26) Sea -14; Hou -1.5; KC -7
Blezow (14-22-3) Sea -14; Gia +2.5; Cin +3.5 (Lock 3-9-1 = Sea)
Cannizzaro (15-24) Sea -14; GB -7.5; NO -7
Schwartz (15-22-2) Dal -3.5; Ten -7.5; GB -7.5
 
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