BIZ NCAAB Model Plays 2020/2021

Biz · Dec 23, 2020

I'm running a very simple model based on efficiency. I will be tracking these plays in this thread. Any play with a 3+ point edge will be deemed a play. I will also track them based on the size of the edge.

I am not advocating playing these blind, I just want to see how they perform.

I will post the complete list from today, even though some games have finished.

Wednesday, December 23

AWAY	HOME	LINE	EDGE	W/L
Bellarmine	Notre Dame	-13.5	3.7	L
N.J. Tech	Rider	1.5	7.5	W
St. Peter's	St. Fran.-NY	8	4.5	L
Towson	George Mason	-4.5	4.5	W
11 Rutgers	23 Ohio St.	-3	3.6
Northwestern St.	Washington St.	-19	4.8
Coppin St.	Iona	-12.5	3.4
5 Villanova	Marquette	5.5	3.5
Weber St.	BYU	-13	6.7
UMKC	Saint Louis	-23	4.8
W. Illinois	DePaul	-17.5	8.3
New Mexico	Boise St.	-11.5	3

BrokeBookie · Dec 23, 2020

Good luck Biz....hope your model crushes.

Biz · Dec 23, 2020

Thx buddy.

Its a very simple model, curious what it does.

Going forward I will just write down the numbers, the copy and paste from the sheet is difficult to read

seattlecowboy · Dec 23, 2020

Good luck Biz!!

I just started posting my computer system plays, which are one of my most profitable systems. I’m curious to see if/when your model plays and my computer system plays agree, If they have a high win rate. Hope your model does very well and kicks ass!! Looks like they agree on DePaul and Boise St. tonight.

:toast:

Biz · Dec 23, 2020

Awesome Cowboy, lets track those and see how they do. GL with your plays..

Biz · Dec 25, 2020

Record: 6-6
The two largest edges won: DePaul (8.3) and NJIT (7.5)

Thursday, December 25

Wisconsin +2 (9.4)
Maryland +6 (4)
Michigan -7.5 (8.7)

remember just tracking not advocating blindly playing them. Two with large edges today, interested to see how they do

thenatti · Dec 25, 2020

hi biz, where are you pulling your efficiency numbers from?

exploited17 · Dec 25, 2020

High ranked model plays seem like they may have some great potentila
GL

Biz · Dec 25, 2020

Thursday, December 25

Wisconsin +2 (9.4)
Maryland +6 (4)
Michigan -7.5 (8.7)

Biz · Dec 26, 2020

Saturday, December 26

Houston -7.5 (7)
Indiana +7 (5.7)

Biz · Dec 26, 2020

Wright St -14.5 (4.5)

Wright St line dropped making them a play.....conversely O have a system play on the other side Wisconsin Green Bay

Biz · Dec 26, 2020

Saturday, December 26

Houston -7.5 (7)
Indiana +7 (5.7)

Wright St closed at -15.5 dropping them out.

The top rated play wins again

Biz · Dec 27, 2020

Sunday, December 27

Loyola Chicago -15.5 (5.2)

Biz · Dec 27, 2020

Sunday, December 27

Loyola Chicago -15.5 (5.2)

Record: 11-7

RussellPeters · Dec 27, 2020

Great job Biz! Thanks for sharing the model.

Biz · Dec 28, 2020

Monday, December 28

UMBC -11.5 (4.6)
Drake -4.5 (4.9)
So Illinois -8 (5.1)
Fresno St +10 (4.7)
Gonzaga -39.5 (6.3)
Colorado +2.5 (5.6)

These are current lines, I would wait and see where the lines close. I'm grading at the closing line, and will update after the games based on the close. I'm looking for a min of 4+ point edge. In the very small sample size that I have currently the 7+ seem best, which is fine. I'm not looking for tons of volume with this, more of a spot play looking for an undervalued team.

seattlecowboy · Dec 28, 2020

Looks like Gonzaga is your top play. Gonzaga should beat N. Arizona by 45-50 not trying. With any effort they win by over 60+. Northern Arizona sucks.

Good luck tonight Biz! Great job with the top plays on your model!

Biz · Dec 29, 2020

UMBC -11.5 (4.6)
Drake -4.5 (4.9)
So Illinois -8 (5.1)
Fresno St +10 (4.7)
Gonzaga -39.5 (6.3)
Colorado +2.5 (5.6)

Biz · Dec 29, 2020

Going over my numbers, the cut off point is at 7+. Games less than 7 are around 50%. Will continue to track anything over 4 but 7+ seems to be the key number.

Biz · Dec 29, 2020

Tuesday, December 29

West Virginia -17.5 (5.3)

BIZ NCAAB Model Plays 2020/2021

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Forum statistics

Share this page