******G-Man's Super Wild Card Plays. Facts and Predictions. *Plus CFB Champoinhip game********

G-Man! · Jan 4, 2021

Early Posted Lines. Sorry for typo's in Title

Saturday Jan 9th.
Home teams in BOLD

1:00 PM.
Buffalo -6.5 VS Indianapolis.
Bills dont really have a good defense as they are allowing 25 points per game on average and struggle against passing teams. Win over Phins was big but Phins did their share of self destructing all on their own. Colts score nearly 30 points per game and against a Bills team that has a soft defense while the Colts is much better. -This could come down to the last minute.
Colts +6.5

4:40PM
Seattle -4.5 VS L.A.Rams.
Seahawks have not lit up the scoreboard against anyone lately but they still find ways to win. Only team they beat up was the Jets by scoring 40 points. To verify that they had one game go over the "total" in the last 8. A low scoring game by Seattle will produce a point spread win for the Rams.
Rams +4.5

8:15 PM
Tampa -7.5 VS Washington.
Is the Washington defense good enough to shut down Brady? WFT defense is top 10 ranked in Passing (199 yds per game) and rushing.(112yds per game). Those stats are against some good teams. Pitt, Balt, Cleve, Seattle and the Rams. Since Alex Smith became the starter the WFT defense has not allowed over 20pts in their last 7 games.
Washington +7.5.

Sunday Jan 10th
1:00 PM
Baltimore -3.5 VS Tennessee
Tennessee beat the Ravens back on nov 22nd and beat them soundly. Derrick Henry piled up 133 yards and Tannehill passed for 250. Titans were a 6 point dog in Baltimore and now getting +3.5 at home is big swing. Ravens are vulnerable against the run and they were also badly out gained by Cleveland jsust a couple weeks ago in a very fortunate win. Titans tight win against Houston was hard fought, but they faced the top passer in the AFC this year in Watson. Jackson on Baltimore is no where near as capable.
Titans +3.5.

4:40 PM.
New Orleans -9.5 vs Chicago
Vastly Underrated Saints defense is a match for the Bears defense. Bears went to GreenBay as +9.5 dog back on Nov 29th and got blown out 41-25. Bears had 3 turnovers. Saints have a better defense than the Packers and The Dome is Home for Brees.
Saints -9.5..

8:15 PM
Pittsburgh -3.5 VS Cleveland.
Dont be fooled by Clevelands close win against a Steeler team that had most starters out. Browns mostly ran the ball as Baker only had 17 completions. Browns typically run when leading and that is why they kept it close. Browns had 2 top defensive backs out and one linebacker. All will be ready next week providing they dont have Covid.
Steelers are still not the team that started the season. Losing 4 of 5 in their last 5 games indicates they are in no way a top contender. Small home point spread is an indicator for another SU loss. Steelers gave up 24,24,27,26 and 23 points on defense the last 5 games.
Browns +3.5.

Jan 11th
Monday Night. Ohio State +8 over Alabama.
No doubt.
Buckeyes + 8. 10 Units
Buckeyes ML +245. 5 Units

vinnyvegas · Jan 4, 2021

Gravy, great write ups and compelling reasons. Appreciate your thoughts and early to boot. Could you be leaving some meat on bones with Dogs...which I love each also. I could be wrong but I’d expect public to push dog lines up at least a 1/2 on each. Maybe won’t matter cuz each could come down to a last sec FG. Good luck and hope you sweep. Great winning regular season too...anything in positive which I believe you were is amazing.

G-Man! · Jan 4, 2021

Thanks Vinny.

Lets track public percentages and line moves.
Early Monday polls. (Averages)

71% on Buffalo -7. (Opened-6.5) Moved up.
66% on Seattle -4.5 (Opened -5) Moved down
66% on Tampa -8 (Opened -7.5) Moved up
59% on Tennessee +3.5 (Opened at +3.5) Same
54% on Saints -10 (Opened at -9.5) Moved up
65% on Pittsburgh -3.5 (Opened at -3.5) Same.

5 of 6 percentages are on Favorites at this time.

Check back on these percentages as the week goes on.

MikRetSam · Jan 4, 2021

Tenn beat Balt in OT 30-24, thats far from beating them soundly. Since that game Balt is 6-0 SU & ATS. Good luck with your plays!

OfficialSono · Jan 4, 2021

The most important thing for the Ravens is that the Titans can’t stop the run, that near enough raps this one up. I think -3.5 is generous personally and hits easy.

Ravens numbers the past 5 games something along the lines of 1400 yards accumulated rushing alone and you have to factor in Covid and what it did to them midway during the season they are peaking at the right time.

G-Man! · Jan 4, 2021

MikRetSam said:
Tenn beat Balt in OT 30-24, thats far from beating them soundly. Since that game Balt is 6-0 SU & ATS. Good luck with your plays!

Soundly. Yes! Out gained them by 117 yards in Baltimore and shut down Jackson. Now Balt is away and Titans will run all day against them. Since the Ravens played Cleveland, they haven't faced a team with a winning record either. I would say they wouldn't even make the playoffs if they played a few more teams with winning records and true starting quarterbacks.
FWIW.

G-Man! · Jan 4, 2021

OfficialSono said:
The most important thing for the Ravens is that the Titans can’t stop the run, that near enough raps this one up. I think -3.5 is generous personally and hits easy.

Ravens numbers the past 5 games something along the lines of 1400 yards accumulated rushing alone and you have to factor in Covid and what it did to them midway during the season they are peaking at the right time.

All Against losers in 4 of the last 6 and one broken Pittsburgh team at the time...

exploited17 · Jan 4, 2021

Titans own Ravens
But the question is Lamar Jackson
And the Ravens are better on the road
So, if Jackson doesn't choke and steps up they can definitely win
Titans are the right side though
JMO

OfficialSono · Jan 4, 2021

G-Man! said:
All Against losers in 4 of the last 6 and one broken Pittsburgh team at the time...

Fair point but I am talking more the eye test and even against ‘bad’ teams what has looked like a disjointed offense for most of the season has gotten better and back to what they do best and that’s smash mouth football.

Best of luck nonetheless.

MikRetSam · Jan 4, 2021

You can only beat who you play, that why there is a point spread to determine the strength of a performance. In the past 6 games Balt has covered all ATS, and beat the spread on average of over 9 pts per game. I hope the pub stays on Tenn.

G-Man! said:
Soundly. Yes! Out gained them by 117 yards in Baltimore and shut down Jackson. Now Balt is away and Titans will run all day against them. Since the Ravens played Cleveland, they haven't faced a team with a winning record either. I would say they wouldn't even make the playoffs if they played a few more teams with winning records and true starting quarterbacks.
FWIW.

Serbone · Jan 4, 2021

Thanks for write ups with your opinions...
GL!

XXII · Jan 5, 2021

Love all the selections except for Buffalo! Colts nearly 30pts a game last 3 weeks, yet Buffalo is 47pts per game last 3 weeks going into play offs!
This Buffalo team is hungry!
Good luck! Great write-ups!

xflrejects · Jan 5, 2021

Gravy,

I really enjoy your write ups every week and I agree with you on virtually all of these games except I am teetering on the Colts game but the one game I take real exception to is the Steelers-Browns for these reasons:

I believe that of all the teams with 10 wins or more the most fraudulent record in the NFL this year is the Cleveland Browns and the reason being is if you take away their one gem of a game where they thrashed the Titans though they let the Titans almost back door them at the end of the game, take away the four games they play against the two strong teams in their division which would be the Ravens and the Steelers (where they lost three of the four and would’ve lost all four if the Steelers weren’t playing their back ups in the last game of the year) their remaining 11 games are against cupcakes with a .500 record or less. This means they only beat one team this year with a winning record if you don’t count the game against Pittsburgh’s back ups. Not only that take a look for yourself at the results and see how many of those games were close against real weak teams.

Baker Mayfield has to be one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the NFL. He has 26 TD’s with 8 fumbles and 8 interceptions versus mostly garbage teams for the great portion of their schedule and you’re playing this week against a playoff hardened defence which is #1 in the DVOA ratings with a great pass rush which squarely puts the pressure on the Cleveland run game. This is definitely their strength but the Pittsburgh defence is ranked eighth against the run and I’m not too worried about them losing four of those last five (they had played three of those games in 12 days and were nursing a few injuries) yet they completely shut down an excellent Colts team in the second half and came back for the win. Playing their back ups in that fifth game of that stretch saw them a failed two-point conversion away from forcing overtime.

This is a perennial playoff team that will be more than ready especially with Big Ben and a few other key offensive players having last week off and I believe we will see this team take Cleveland down by a 10 point margin or greater with relative ease as they get back to their midseason form.

May I point out that if Mason Rudolph can put 315 yards on these guys imagine what Claypool, Johnson and Schuster will be doing with Big Ben throwing to them and we know the secondary of the Browns is highly exploitable.

Just my .02. I played this one early at -3 1/2 and it’s already moved to 4 1/2 within 12 hours but I definitely enjoy your write ups very much and I certainly like your call on the big dance in the college game!

It definitely looks like a great two day wildcard weekend set of tilts!

xflrejects · Jan 5, 2021

PITT is already at -6 on a Tuesday aft. and I love the fact that by resting key players they did not play their offensive playbook hand to Cleveland coaching staff.

G-Man! · Jan 5, 2021

xflrejects said:
PITT is already at -6 on a Tuesday aft. and I love the fact that by resting key players they did not play their offensive playbook hand to Cleveland coaching staff.

Browns head coach and staff are not going to be there because they have Covid. Supposedly they are going to call plays by phone...
Only the Special Teams coach is going to be on the field...

G-Man! · Jan 5, 2021

xflrejects said:
Gravy,

I really enjoy your write ups every week and I agree with you on virtually all of these games except I am teetering on the Colts game but the one game I take real exception to is the Steelers-Browns for these reasons:

I believe that of all the teams with 10 wins or more the most fraudulent record in the NFL this year is the Cleveland Browns and the reason being is if you take away their one gem of a game where they thrashed the Titans though they let the Titans almost back door them at the end of the game, take away the four games they play against the two strong teams in their division which would be the Ravens and the Steelers (where they lost three of the four and would’ve lost all four if the Steelers weren’t playing their back ups in the last game of the year) their remaining 11 games are against cupcakes with a .500 record or less. This means they only beat one team this year with a winning record if you don’t count the game against Pittsburgh’s back ups. Not only that take a look for yourself at the results and see how many of those games were close against real weak teams.

Good points except that the whole division played games against the NFC East (Cupcake Division) and its a real fact that 2 of 3 , Balt Pitt or Cleveland could be eliminated this week. I see Cleveland winning as the only one standing from this division after this round. The public likely believes that Baltimore and Pittsburgh are two strong teams but considering that they all played NFC weaklings I see them gone in the first game. As far as Competitive teams, Cleveland beat Tennessee and the Colts. Baltimore lost to Tennessee and Pitt twice, New England<(declining team) and KC. Balt beat Indy but still only scored 24 points while being out gained by 70 yards. Pitt is also a team that underperformed down the stretch. They backed into the playoffs losing 4 of their last 5 and I cant recall any team losing at the end of a season ever making it through the playoffs. We will see.

Baker Mayfield has to be one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the NFL. He has 26 TD’s with 8 fumbles and 8 interceptions versus mostly garbage teams for the great portion of their schedule and you’re playing this week against a playoff hardened defence which is #1 in the DVOA ratings with a great pass rush which squarely puts the pressure on the Cleveland run game. This is definitely their strength but the Pittsburgh defence is ranked eighth against the run and I’m not too worried about them losing four of those last five (they had played three of those games in 12 days and were nursing a few injuries) yet they completely shut down an excellent Colts team in the second half and came back for the win. Playing their back ups in that fifth game of that stretch saw them a failed two-point conversion away from forcing overtime.
Bakers is only as consistent as his team. He had weeks and weeks of starters out all year and the Browns defense still had 3 defensive players scratched last week late. This season has affected many teams all year and that one big reason why we dont see any truly dominating teams at this point. One Exception may be the Saints, because they still won games without Brees..

This is a perennial playoff team that will be more than ready especially with Big Ben and a few other key offensive players having last week off and I believe we will see this team take Cleveland down by a 10 point margin or greater with relative ease as they get back to their midseason form.

Im not sure Big Ben at this point is any better than how Rudolph played last week? Ben has really slid a lot in the last 6 games for the Steelers. He may be the reason Pitt Loses, especially if the Browns DB's are all playing. Ben could get picked a few times with the Cleveland pass rush going after him - and a depleted Steeler run game?

May I point out that if Mason Rudolph can put 315 yards on these guys imagine what Claypool, Johnson and Schuster will be doing with Big Ben throwing to them and we know the secondary of the Browns is highly exploitable.

Like I mentioned. Rudolph may be the better QB at this moment?

Just my .02. I played this one early at -3 1/2 and it’s already moved to 4 1/2 within 12 hours but I definitely enjoy your write ups very much and I certainly like your call on the big dance in the college game!

It definitely looks like a great two day wildcard weekend set of tilts!

My responses in Blue BOLD above,.
Thanks for the input.

G-Man! · Jan 6, 2021

Some key games that show why Titans and Colts are better teams than Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Especially Winning Out of Conference Games.

AFC Teams.
Tennessee and the Colts played against better teams in the regular season.

COLTS Season. (4-4 Against Playoff teams)

Jan 3	JAC	W 28-14	Week 17	L -15.5	U 47.5
Dec 27	@ PIT	L 24-28	Week 16	L -1	O 43.5
Dec 20	HOU	W 27-20	Week 15	L -7.5	U 52.5
Dec 13	@ LV	W 44-27	Week 14	W -2.5	O 52
Dec 6	@ HOU	W 26-20	Week 13	W -3.5	U 50
Nov 29	TEN	L 26-45	Week 12	L -3	O 51.5
Nov 22	GB	W 34-31 (OT)	Week 11	W -1.5	O 52.5
Nov 12	@ TEN	W 34-17	Week 10	W -1	O 49.5
Nov 8	BAL	L 10-24	Week 9	L -1	U 47.5
Nov 1	@ DET	W 41-21	Week 8	W -3.5	O 49
Oct 18	CIN	W 31-27	Week 6	L -7.5	O 46
Oct 11	@ CLE	L 23-32	Week 5	L 1	O 48.5
Oct 4	@ CHI	W 19-11	Week 4	W -3.5	U 43.5
Sep 27	NYJ	W 36-7	Week 3	W -12.5	U 44
Sep 20	MIN	W 28-11	Week 2	W -3.5	U 49
Sep 13	@ JAC	L 20-27	Week 1	L -7	O 44

Buffalo played better teams than Cleveland, Pit and Baltimore played.
Biffalo Season ( Bills were 3-2 against playoff teams).

Jan 3	MIA	W 56-26	Week 17	W 3.5	O 43
Dec 28	@ NE	W 38-9	Week 16	W -7	U 47.5
Dec 19	@ DEN	W 48-19	Week 15	W -6	O 48
Dec 13	PIT	W 26-15	Week 14	W -2	U 48.5
Dec 7	@ SF NEUTRAL	W 34-24	Week 13	W 1.5	O 48
Nov 29	LAC	W 27-17	Week 12	W -4.5	U 51.5
Nov 15	@ ARI	L 30-32	Week 10	W 3	O 56
Nov 8	SEA	W 44-34	Week 9	W 3	O 55.5
Nov 1	NE	W 24-21	Week 8	L -4	O 41
Oct 25	@ NYJ	W 18-10	Week 7	L -9.5	U 47
Oct 19	KC	L 17-26	Week 6	L 5.5	U 55
Oct 13	@ TEN	L 16-42	Week 5	L -3	O 52
Oct 4	@ LV	W 30-23	Week 4	W -3	P 53
Sep 27	LAR	W 35-32	Week 3	W -1.5	O 46.5
Sep 20	@ MIA	W 31-28	Week 2	L -5.5	O 42.5
Sep 13	NYJ	W 27-17	Week 1	W -6.5	O 39.5

Jan 3	baltimore is 4-4 Straight up, in games involving Playoff teams The Four Losses wer to teams that WON their division. Baltimore Season @ CIN	W 38-3	Week 17	W -13.5	U 46
Dec 27	NYG	W 27-13	Week 16	W -10	U 43
Dec 20	JAC	W 40-14	Week 15	W -13	O 49
Dec 14	@ CLE	W 47-42	Week 14	W -3	O 46
Dec 8	DAL	W 34-17	Week 13	W -8.5	O 46
Dec 2	@ PIT	L 14-19	Week 12	W 10.5	U 41.5
Nov 22	TEN	L 24-30 (OT)	Week 11	L -6	O 50.5
Nov 15	@ NE	L 17-23	Week 10	L -7	U 44
Nov 8	@ IND	W 24-10	Week 9	W 1	U 47.5
Nov 1	PIT	L 24-28	Week 8	L -4	O 44
Oct 18	@ PHI	W 30-28	Week 6	L -10.5	O 46.5
Oct 11	CIN	W 27-3	Week 5	W -12.5	U 49
Oct 4	@ WAS	W 31-17	Week 4	L -14.5	O 45
Sep 28	KC	L 20-34	Week 3	L -3.5	U 55
Sep 20	@ HOU	W 33-16	Week 2	W -7.5	U 49.5
Sep 13	CLE	W 38-6	Week 1	W -7	U 47

Tennessee was 4-4 against playoff teams.

Cleveland was 4-3 against playoff teams.

Pittsburgh was 5-3 against Playoff teams.

Dont know how all the Logos got in here?

JimmyVegas · Jan 6, 2021

The Baltimore Ravens are a completely different team than Nov 8. We are stronger and we have a chip on our shoulder. We will win on Sunday

JimmyVegas · Jan 6, 2021

Hey Gman, have you even told these guys what your record is and how much you have lost????

G-Man! · Jan 6, 2021

JimmyVegas said:
Hey Gman, have you even told these guys what your record is and how much you have lost????

Naw...I think its better that you show your winning record.
Obviously you don't take compliments well. I posted that you had a great season.

Lets see who does better in Plays posted in here now through the playoffs.

Im sure this will draw attention that may help you achieve more recognition.

Im okay with the challenge. Sounds like you dont like me for some reason? When I never reduced you win any way.
So be it.
For the hell of it - who ever wins the challenge here in the NFL forum - is then considered the Champion for the entire season. How's that?
No Limit on Units OK?

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******G-Man's Super Wild Card Plays. Facts and Predictions. *Plus CFB Champoinhip game********