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Thread: Head scratcher of the day

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  1. #1 Head scratcher of the day 
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    Knicks at Hawks. Hawks look to have one of the best offenses in the league and perhaps the best little man in the NBA. Hawks just played BRK real tight in two straight in BRK. Knicks just won at Indiana at night ago and now play the Hawks in ATL. Any bettor who looks into this game is coming away saying they like ATL. Line opened ATL -6.5 and the very first money in drove the line down to ATL -5.5. I don't think a bunch of $50 and $100 knick bettors all happened to put in action at the same time. A lump sum or a few lump sums came in on New York. The line has crawled back up to 6.5 again because all the novice handicappers like the hawks in the game. MGM even has an ATL -7.5. This is mirroring the BRK/WASH game yesterday. The spread to that game was in the same range, did the same movements, and the conventional handicapping pointed to the Home Fav in both.

    I think wait and find the best number you can get on New York.
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  2. #2  
    RX Junior doctor9's Avatar
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    I think we can learn a lot from you.
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  3. #3  
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    Same result. Knicks ML would have been a hell of a play.
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  4. #4  
    RX Wizard Biz's Avatar
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    I had the points with Knicks tonight, great analysis. Love the way you think about these games
    MLB 2020 Reg Season: 163-95 (+62.32)
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  5. #5  
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    I've spent lots of time trying to interpret line moves. Just tracking in a database the outcome of games and the movement of the line. I also have spent time with a real pro sports bettor. Lives in Vegas, always on his laptop searching for the best lines, he has runners. I mean like the real deal. He don't mess with the NBA at all. He'll do NCAAB, NFL, NCAAF, GOLF.

    I can tell you that the first money in is usually the smart money. Now they lose too. They won't win 60%, maybe 57 or 58 but they bet big so the units are worth so much more. You know how many $50 and $100 bets it would take to move a line even a half point? You'd need a small army of bettors.

    I think standard handicapping is fruitless. It is the Washington Generals to sports betting's Harlem Globetrotters. Go open up any matchup page to any game. The side to pick in the game is usually crystal clear given the stats of the teams. The spread is supposed to erase the gap between the two teams so the even becomes a 50/50 probability outcome. Sports books need to be good at what they do to win and we all know they win.

    When the line moves against the handicapping(public thought), meaning that clear cut choice becomes an even better bet cause the line is becoming more favorable to them, well, you now know where the smart money is on the game and you'd always rather be with them than off on your own. They'll be another head scratcher today. I'll find it and post another one.
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  6. #6  
    RX Junior doctor9's Avatar
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    This is quickly becoming one of my favorite daily segments - the head scratcher
    just as I said above, we could learn a lot from you. Thanks for sharing useful knowledge
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  7. #7  
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    HERE'S MY THOUGHTS FOR TUESDAY

    UTAH AT BRK

    The line shifted because of no Durant. Utah went to -5. Without Durant public leaning Jazz all the way here especially since BRK D been real bad and Utah has a decent D. At some point BRK will start to have lots of value as a home dog. Be curios to see what this line tops out at. If you see this line suddenly go the other way like it climbs to 5.5 then 6 and then all of a sudden before the game it goes back to 4 then you take BRK for sure. Even at +6 or more if it should get there. Utah is in the midst of a seven game road trip. They won game one at SA and had a big offensive output. Now they are in BRK for two. BRK is coming off back to back home losses. I think the value lies in BRK here.

    Lots of huge spreads tonight. One in particular is a real head scratcher.

    MIN AT DEN

    MIN avg margin of victory is -13 points. That means on avg they lose by that much in a given night. The last four games that number is -24. They been losing by an avg 24 points per night last four games. Den is a playoff team from last year that is off to a real slow start. These two teams just played in MIN and DEN won by 15. Now the matchup comes to DEN and the line opens DEN -12 and immediately drops to 10.5. Nobody is going to like what they see about Minnesota when they look at the matchup. People are going to come away from their research with DEN as a solid play and when we look at the market - the books are inviting DEN action because you no longer have to lay 12, lay 10.5 now. Wise Guys got some money on the TWolves tonight. What they see, what they know? I have no clue. But they have info that isn't in an matchup breakdown found online.
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  8. #8  
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    Thanks for posting! I appreciate your insight!
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  9. #9  
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    Really good read...Thanks!!!
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  10. #10  
    RX Wizard
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    Not a head scratcher at all
    I would guess if you went back and looked at all the games that have been played back to back home and away the overhwelming number have not won both games by double digits and covered boith
    And also considering the first game was by 15
    My guess is that 60% or better have not one both games by double digits and covered both
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  11. #11  
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    Good info
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  12. #12  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exploited17 View Post
    Not a head scratcher at all
    I would guess if you went back and looked at all the games that have been played back to back home and away the overhwelming number have not won both games by double digits and covered boith
    And also considering the first game was by 15
    My guess is that 60% or better have not one both games by double digits and covered both
    Well maybe you should go back and look it up and report back.
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  13. #13  
    RX Wizard
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    Quote Originally Posted by FORGETABOUTIT View Post
    Well maybe you should go back and look it up and report back.
    Maybe you should
    But I am taking the points
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  14. #14  
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    Quote Originally Posted by FANBOUTS View Post
    HERE'S MY THOUGHTS FOR TUESDAY

    UTAH AT BRK

    The line shifted because of no Durant. Utah went to -5. Without Durant public leaning Jazz all the way here especially since BRK D been real bad and Utah has a decent D. At some point BRK will start to have lots of value as a home dog. Be curios to see what this line tops out at. If you see this line suddenly go the other way like it climbs to 5.5 then 6 and then all of a sudden before the game it goes back to 4 then you take BRK for sure. Even at +6 or more if it should get there. Utah is in the midst of a seven game road trip. They won game one at SA and had a big offensive output. Now they are in BRK for two. BRK is coming off back to back home losses. I think the value lies in BRK here.

    Lots of huge spreads tonight. One in particular is a real head scratcher.

    MIN AT DEN

    MIN avg margin of victory is -13 points. That means on avg they lose by that much in a given night. The last four games that number is -24. They been losing by an avg 24 points per night last four games. Den is a playoff team from last year that is off to a real slow start. These two teams just played in MIN and DEN won by 15. Now the matchup comes to DEN and the line opens DEN -12 and immediately drops to 10.5. Nobody is going to like what they see about Minnesota when they look at the matchup. People are going to come away from their research with DEN as a solid play and when we look at the market - the books are inviting DEN action because you no longer have to lay 12, lay 10.5 now. Wise Guys got some money on the TWolves tonight. What they see, what they know? I have no clue. But they have info that isn't in an matchup breakdown found online.
    Denver had 3 players well above their average that night. Murray, Green and Campazzo. Not likely to happen again. They lost by 15, bring that back closer to normal and should cover with 10.5.
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  15. #15  
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    Thereís always a risk betting bad teams with no D. Definitely not a spot you want to be in too often. I think the first half of the game will tell you everything. If MIN can hang in and be within 5 then they are here to play. If Deb leads by 10 or more by half then I donít see MIN coming back. Wiseguys think Min stays in the game, they are USUALLY right.
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  16. #16  
    RX Junior doctor9's Avatar
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    So far the nets came out charging like bulls, your def. on the right track
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  17. #17  
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    Sharp sudden drop in the SA/LAC game. Line was sitting at 9/9.5 all day and now is 8 all of a sudden. Public is not betting against Leonard and George at home. Some late, big bets came in on SA. That would be my guess.
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  18. #18  
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    Quote Originally Posted by FANBOUTS View Post
    Sharp sudden drop in the SA/LAC game. Line was sitting at 9/9.5 all day and now is 8 all of a sudden. Public is not betting against Leonard and George at home. Some late, big bets came in on SA. That would be my guess.
    Line movement is Aldridge back for Spurs and PG most likely out for Clippers. I took the Spurs early at 9.5 before the PG news.
    [QUOTE=varkeyboy;12812813]We all know what happens to Virginia when they get to the big tourney............

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  19. #19  
    RX Junior
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    Nice Move
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  20. #20  
    RX Junior doctor9's Avatar
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    Just gotta hope Leonard carries the load The way kyrie did tonight
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  21. #21  
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    Fanbouts... keep this thread going man... great situational capping and line reading you got going on in here... teaching me a lot

    Really appreciate it
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  22. #22  
    RX Junior richporter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hoku808pc View Post
    Fanbouts... keep this thread going man... great situational capping and line reading you got going on in here... teaching me a lot

    Really appreciate it
    absolutely love when i see new blood on the forum providing great input and valuable information.. what its all about this forum has taught me a ton over the years and 99 outta 100 guys on here are gentlemen
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  23. #23  
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    doc - play was SA. I hope you didn't misread what I was saying.
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  24. #24  
    "My Other Vehicle Is a Locomotive" RDTrains's Avatar
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    Excellent input for tonight’s games. Thanks and continued success.
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  25. #25  
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    Thx everyone. We are all on the same side here. We just wanna win. We can all learn from each other.
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