7-4-1
sides: 2-4
totals: 5-0-1
Divisional Round
Rams +7
Rams/Packers under 45.5
I don't feel strongly about the side wager here. I think the Rams are a tough out if they can establish a run game. Problem is they just haven't been doing that much. I think the Packers looks better than they actually are, and I think a physical team like LA could expose them a little bit. Weather probably favors GB, but I don't see it being too much of a factor.
I'm running hot on the totals so far in the playoffs, so I'm worried I may come down to Earth, but the data says Under is the answer here. Rams games have had no problem going well below the 45.5 # posted, and unders have been common in LA games in general. We all know Rodgers/Adams can light up anyone if they're cooking though. I don't feel great about the total bet here, but this is what the data is telling me to do.
Ravens +2.5
Ravens/Bills under 49.5
I probably should've grabbed Baltimore at 3 earlier in the week, but I feel pretty confident in this one. I think Baltimore is simply a little bit better than Buffalo, and they are hitting their stride at the right time. They've figured it out on the O-line, Lamar is throwing the ball better, and they are rushing at all-time clips. I think the Bills are good, but the Ravens are turning into that team a lot of us suspected they were at the start of the season. I think they win this outright. Definitely a money line bet
I am pretty flustered on the total. This number looks pretty accurate. I am hoping that if Baltimore is executing their game plan then they will be grinding a lot of clock and shortening the game. Similar to the Titans games. Probably should stay away, but going with under.
Chiefs -10
Browns/Chiefs over 57
Pretty torn on this one, but leaning KC. I don't know if they will turn on a switch per se, but I don't think Cleveland is good enough to win this game. It's pretty unheard of for a team to go 11-5 with a negative point differential, but the Browns managed to do it this year. It's tempting to take the Browns given the high they're running off, but I think KC is finally going to take it up a notch. Mahommes should be able to torch the Browns' bad secondary. The Browns can only keep it close/pull off the upset if Mahommes is lackluster with the ball, or if their D-Line makes him uncomfortable consistently. I'm thinking neither of those happen
Pretty flustered on the total again. I just think it'll be one of those games where KC gets out fast, the Browns probably score a bit down the stretch when the outcome is decided, etc. I think it gets past 57.5 one way or the other. Again, not feeling great about this.
Bucs +3
Bucs/Saints under 52
It's hard to beat Tom Brady 3x in one season, though the Saints dominance in both games may make it possible here. I just think Tampa is starting to hit their stride at the right time, even with a so-so game in Washington. I think their defense against the run will be the difference, and Drew won't be up to to the task of winning this one with him arm.
I don't see a ton of points....52 just seems like a lot. I think TB finally gets a run game going. Then again, I'm probably due for a bad week on totals.
Good luck.
sides: 2-4
totals: 5-0-1
Divisional Round
Rams +7
Rams/Packers under 45.5
I don't feel strongly about the side wager here. I think the Rams are a tough out if they can establish a run game. Problem is they just haven't been doing that much. I think the Packers looks better than they actually are, and I think a physical team like LA could expose them a little bit. Weather probably favors GB, but I don't see it being too much of a factor.
I'm running hot on the totals so far in the playoffs, so I'm worried I may come down to Earth, but the data says Under is the answer here. Rams games have had no problem going well below the 45.5 # posted, and unders have been common in LA games in general. We all know Rodgers/Adams can light up anyone if they're cooking though. I don't feel great about the total bet here, but this is what the data is telling me to do.
Ravens +2.5
Ravens/Bills under 49.5
I probably should've grabbed Baltimore at 3 earlier in the week, but I feel pretty confident in this one. I think Baltimore is simply a little bit better than Buffalo, and they are hitting their stride at the right time. They've figured it out on the O-line, Lamar is throwing the ball better, and they are rushing at all-time clips. I think the Bills are good, but the Ravens are turning into that team a lot of us suspected they were at the start of the season. I think they win this outright. Definitely a money line bet
I am pretty flustered on the total. This number looks pretty accurate. I am hoping that if Baltimore is executing their game plan then they will be grinding a lot of clock and shortening the game. Similar to the Titans games. Probably should stay away, but going with under.
Chiefs -10
Browns/Chiefs over 57
Pretty torn on this one, but leaning KC. I don't know if they will turn on a switch per se, but I don't think Cleveland is good enough to win this game. It's pretty unheard of for a team to go 11-5 with a negative point differential, but the Browns managed to do it this year. It's tempting to take the Browns given the high they're running off, but I think KC is finally going to take it up a notch. Mahommes should be able to torch the Browns' bad secondary. The Browns can only keep it close/pull off the upset if Mahommes is lackluster with the ball, or if their D-Line makes him uncomfortable consistently. I'm thinking neither of those happen
Pretty flustered on the total again. I just think it'll be one of those games where KC gets out fast, the Browns probably score a bit down the stretch when the outcome is decided, etc. I think it gets past 57.5 one way or the other. Again, not feeling great about this.
Bucs +3
Bucs/Saints under 52
It's hard to beat Tom Brady 3x in one season, though the Saints dominance in both games may make it possible here. I just think Tampa is starting to hit their stride at the right time, even with a so-so game in Washington. I think their defense against the run will be the difference, and Drew won't be up to to the task of winning this one with him arm.
I don't see a ton of points....52 just seems like a lot. I think TB finally gets a run game going. Then again, I'm probably due for a bad week on totals.
Good luck.
