Ok...Originally Posted by MikRetSam
Rams
Bills
Chiefs
Saints
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Ok...
Rams
Bills
Chiefs
Saints
I hammered GB and Balt.
Fyi...i hate everyone on this post. Every time I read someones post, I keep changing my mind. All valid posts
HA but it is good stuff... you hear both sides, if you are on a jury you don't listen to the prosecution, then leave every time the defense speaks, do you?
AND G-Man is a poster who backs up his posts with relevant rationale, unlike most, and he puts it out there early for productive discussion.
Great thread.
GL!
Good thread with a good back and forth discussion.
I cherry picked just two opinions with which I am in total disagreement . . . Carry on:
GL
Great stuff G man. Thanks!
I like the rams +7. But I'd love them, if this list was shorter. IMPORTANT INJURIES
KUPP wr, knee, ques
HENDERSON rb, ankle, out. when healthy he was #1, earlier in year. Akers has been dinged, and Brown spotty.
FLOYD lb, concussion, ques
WHITWORTH, T, knee, ques
EDWARDS T, knee, ques
GOFF, qb, thumb, 3 screws....all it would take is one more helmet strike, or landing on it.
WOLFORD qb, stinger, persistent, out.
BORTLES qb, the back up......if Goff can't go. Avery scary thought.
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I also like KC +10. Too many points, given 20 days since KC starters have played. 8 wks since they won by 10+
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Leans toward NO and Buf. Both too close to call.
bol to all
If that was the case? Anytime you play a dog? You’d play ML. Of course it’s yield much better results due to the %. However some dogs cover and don’t win. Therefore you lose a bet. Now if you’re playing say 5 dogs via 16game sched (reg season) you’d make up for the loss. But no one really does.
When I hear "I like Team A to win but Team B to cover" or "Team A can't win but they will cover", how much confidence do you really have on either side? Statements like this should not warrant a play.
Just pick the winner means, nearly 90% in the playoffs the winning team will cover so don't overthink it. Good luck with your plays.
Last week, of course, Buffalo(-6 or -6' closing line) won 27-24 but did not cover, and Tampa Bay(-10') won 31-23, but did not cover.
GL
Public percentages and Changes from the early lines this week.
Packers opened @53%. Now at 59%
Bills opened @50%. Now 58%
Browns Opened @ 52%. Now at 61%
Tampa Opened @54%. Now at 50%.
Packers increased 6% against me. (GB line dropped a half point.)
Buffalo Increased 8 % with me. (No Change on Buffalo Line.
Browns increased 9% with me. (No Change on Browns Line.
Saints increased 4% with me. (Saints dropped a half point)
Interesting how the largest percentage moved, did not move the line at all.
While the smaller percentages only moved the line a half point?
GB line moved in the wrong direction? 6% more jumped on them and the line should have gone UP -Not Down.
Saints moved a half point in the right direction but only had a 4% increase.
With an 9% increase, the lines should have moved at least 1 point up on the Browns to 11.But it didnt change!
With an 8% increase the line on Buffalo should have gone up to 3.5 or 4, yet it stayed at 2.5.
FWIW...
If Browns % went UP, shouldn't KC be favored LESS?
yes. Correction. Should have gone down. to 9
Final Closing percentages last week were against the Spread.
63% on Buffalo. Lost. Colts Covered
60%on Seattle. Lost. Rams covered. (Dog won SU)
55% on Tampa. LOST. Washington Covered.
54% on Tennessee. Lost. Baltimore Covered.
52% On Bears. LOST. Saints Covered
59% on Steelers. LOST. Browns Covered..(Dog won SU)
THIS WEEK>
Closing percentages appear to be different this week now with 2 dogs having the percentages on them. Cleveland and Tampa as of today.
Last week percentages were only on Tennessee.
Tampa Just moved to 51%. Cleveland is 64% today. Browns jumped up another 3% overnight.
The matchup of concern through my optics is Graham...I think he's the best in the league and unable to be contained through single coverage...Ramsey is obviously a beast and what he did to Metcalf last week and throughout his career speaks for itself...Im assuming since you've posted Rams you are in the corner of Ramsey doing his thing....please speak to this match up if you can? Ty and GL
Great dialog by all. Glad I stuck to my guns. Against you on rest also. Ravens in game now...KC and Bucs. BOL.
After today we're both 1-1.
My front runner is Cleveland.
Browns vs Chiefs have good enough stats that Cleveland may end up playing the Bills next week..
This is going to be a great Super Bowl regardless of who ends up there.
NFC is the Old Guys, AFC is the young guys.
Just maybe an AFC win with all the Speed at QB....
Todays facts:
Browns are mostly healthy today on both sides of the ball. First time since the Colts game (WEEK 5), that they had this many starters playing.
Chiefs last 4 home games were against Carolina 33-31, Denver 22-16, Atlanta 17-14 and Chargers L 21-38.
The Chargers games isn't really relevant because the Chiefs rested everyone. Cleveland is far better than all of those teams and they were all getting 10 or more points then. Go look it up!
Knowing that KC barely won the other games, makes this game ripe for a underdog upset. This is so similar to what happened to Pittsburgh, and that now makes Cleveland a good bet. The Steelers regressed in their last 5 of 6 games and KC is now in that similar circumstance.
I see today, that action is starting to come in on KC. Line drop to 9.5 -10 is moving more players to KC.
The Browns W-L record would have been far better if you consider that the games they lost were without offensive players and defensive players. The Jets game had 4 defensive starters out and 4 receivers out. Cancel that loss and put a W there.
Same with the loss to Baltimore in the second game. where both DB's were out. 2 linebackers as well. They still out gained the Ravens by over 100 yards, but gave up 13 free points to baltimore in that game with 2 missed Field goals and a pick 6 TD. Cancel that loss and put a W there as well.
The Raiders game was missing top Cleveland #1 Running back Chubb plus defensive players on as well. Game was in rain storm and Both reams had season low yardage in that game with Cleveland unable to run the ball. Cancel that loss- and put a W there. Browns record would be 14-2 and just as good as KC today.
Knowing the depth of the W-L record of Cleveland, they would be coming in here at 14-2 plus the Steeler slaughter last week 15-2, do you think the point spread would be 10 ?
Browns can win this game. I would never pick them if they still had key players out - but today, is the best day for an under dog play Ive seen all year, because Cleveland didnt have all their defensive players back last week in Pittsburgh. Today they have them!
GL
Top notch original write up and this additional information is very helpful, very important, relevant handicapping (no phony GOY without rationale or irrelevant trend BS).
Much appreciated!
GL!
Thanks for the feedback.
Special NOTE! Flava never picked the Chiefs all year with his system in those games I mentioned above in this write up. I hope he knows this and doesn't play KC today. If KC wasn't good enough then while giving those lesers 10 or more points, his system shouldn't have any play but Cleveland. The Browns are way better than all those teams.
GL Flava and followers...
Browns ML is bold.
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