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Thread: ****************** G-Man's Divisional Playoffs. Predictions and Write-ups. *******************

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  1. #26  
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikRetSam View Post
    Just pick the winner! Tricky part if that sometimes dogs win outright.
    Ok...
    Rams
    Bills
    Chiefs
    Saints
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  2. #27  
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    I hammered GB and Balt.

    Quote Originally Posted by wizard1183 View Post
    Ok...
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  3. #28  
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    Fyi...i hate everyone on this post. Every time I read someones post, I keep changing my mind. All valid posts
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    Quote Originally Posted by tkim11 View Post
    Fyi...i hate everyone on this post. Every time I read someones post, I keep changing my mind. All valid posts

    HA
    but it is good stuff... you hear both sides, if you are on a jury you don't listen to the prosecution, then leave every time the defense speaks, do you?

    AND G-Man is a poster who backs up his posts with relevant rationale, unlike most, and he puts it out there early for productive discussion.

    Great thread.

    GL!
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    Good thread with a good back and forth discussion.

    I cherry picked just two opinions with which I am in total disagreement . . . Carry on:

    Quote Originally Posted by G-Man! View Post
    Ram + 7
    Quote Originally Posted by vinny vegas View Post
    Brees is . . . more broken than Manning's were at the end of both their runs.
    GL
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  6. #31  
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    Great stuff G man. Thanks!

    I like the rams +7. But I'd love them, if this list was shorter. IMPORTANT INJURIES

    KUPP wr, knee, ques
    HENDERSON rb, ankle, out. when healthy he was #1, earlier in year. Akers has been dinged, and Brown spotty.
    FLOYD lb, concussion, ques
    WHITWORTH, T, knee, ques
    EDWARDS T, knee, ques
    GOFF, qb, thumb, 3 screws....all it would take is one more helmet strike, or landing on it.
    WOLFORD qb, stinger, persistent, out.
    BORTLES qb, the back up......if Goff can't go. Avery scary thought.

    -----------------------------------------

    I also like KC +10. Too many points, given 20 days since KC starters have played. 8 wks since they won by 10+

    -----------------------------------------

    Leans toward NO and Buf. Both too close to call.

    bol to all
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikRetSam View Post
    Just pick the winner! Tricky part if that sometimes dogs win outright.
    If that was the case? Anytime you play a dog? You’d play ML. Of course it’s yield much better results due to the %. However some dogs cover and don’t win. Therefore you lose a bet. Now if you’re playing say 5 dogs via 16game sched (reg season) you’d make up for the loss. But no one really does.
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    When I hear "I like Team A to win but Team B to cover" or "Team A can't win but they will cover", how much confidence do you really have on either side? Statements like this should not warrant a play.

    Just pick the winner means, nearly 90% in the playoffs the winning team will cover so don't overthink it. Good luck with your plays.



    Quote Originally Posted by wizard1183 View Post
    If that was the case? Anytime you play a dog? You’d play ML. Of course it’s yield much better results due to the %. However some dogs cover and don’t win. Therefore you lose a bet. Now if you’re playing say 5 dogs via 16game sched (reg season) you’d make up for the loss. But no one really does.
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    Last week, of course, Buffalo(-6 or -6' closing line) won 27-24 but did not cover, and Tampa Bay(-10') won 31-23, but did not cover.

    GL
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    Public percentages and Changes from the early lines this week.

    Packers opened @53%. Now at 59%
    Bills opened @50%. Now 58%
    Browns Opened @ 52%. Now at 61%
    Tampa Opened @54%. Now at 50%.

    Packers increased 6% against me. (GB line dropped a half point.)
    Buffalo Increased 8 % with me. (No Change on Buffalo Line.
    Browns increased 9% with me. (No Change on Browns Line.
    Saints increased 4% with me. (Saints dropped a half point)

    Interesting how the largest percentage moved, did not move the line at all.
    While the smaller percentages only moved the line a half point?

    GB line moved in the wrong direction? 6% more jumped on them and the line should have gone UP -Not Down.

    Saints moved a half point in the right direction but only had a 4% increase.

    With an 9% increase, the lines should have moved at least 1 point up on the Browns to 11.But it didnt change!

    With an 8% increase the line on Buffalo should have gone up to 3.5 or 4, yet it stayed at 2.5.



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    If Browns % went UP, shouldn't KC be favored LESS?
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    Quote Originally Posted by mickj View Post
    If Browns % went UP, shouldn't KC be favored LESS?
    yes. Correction. Should have gone down. to 9
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    Final Closing percentages last week were against the Spread.

    63% on Buffalo. Lost. Colts Covered
    60%on Seattle. Lost. Rams covered. (Dog won SU)
    55% on Tampa. LOST. Washington Covered.
    54% on Tennessee. Lost. Baltimore Covered.
    52% On Bears. LOST. Saints Covered
    59% on Steelers. LOST. Browns Covered..(Dog won SU)


    THIS WEEK>
    Closing percentages appear to be different this week now with 2 dogs having the percentages on them. Cleveland and Tampa as of today.
    Last week percentages were only on Tennessee.
    Tampa Just moved to 51%. Cleveland is 64% today. Browns jumped up another 3% overnight.
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    Quote Originally Posted by G-Man! View Post
    Things sure have changed this season. Losers have become winners and winners have ended up losers.

    Ravens reversed the loss against Tennessee earlier in the year and Pittsburgh has fallen to a Browns team they beat for 17 straight years at home.
    Tampa has become a winner all because of Tom Brady. The Bills have finally made it back to th payoffs after a 25 year absence.
    The Saints are back again and the Pack is back as well.

    Big opening lines are typical for home teams in division games. No road team is favored this week. There are 3 dogs with 12 wins on the season through last week. That makes for good discussion and Legitiment concerns.
    Last week Baltimore was favored in Tennessee. Tampa was favored in Washington. Now both are dogs respectively.

    LA Rams AT Green Bay -7. Saturday 4:30PM. (53% of the public is on the Packers at this posting)
    Rams have the top defense this year. They are known for hardly allowing points in the 2nd half of their games. The Rams problem is - who is really their starting QB? Going into Green Bay with that question is significant at this point of the season. Goff was NOT the starter last week because of a broken thumb and surgery just 2 weeks ago. . Wolford was injured and taken out which put Goff in. A warm weather team going into Cheese Land is an advantage for the Packers. The Packers have everything in place and also ahem one of the best offense this year and are averaging 32 points per game. If rams can keep the Packers under 28 points they can cover this. If the Rams can get to Rodgers a few time like they did last week in Seattle, they could win this. The Rams are forcing teams to go more yards per point than anyone else of the NFC play-off teams.
    Ram + 7

    Baltimore AT Buffalo -2.5. Saturday 8:15 PM. (Public is 50/50% on this game. )
    The Ravens look like the better team right now with the tight Buffalo win against the Colts. Baltimore was threatened at the end of the game by the Titans, but prevailed. The Ravens out-gained the Titans by over 192 total yards but it was all from Jackson running the ball. One-dimension teams dont usually win against balanced teams, so this week makes for an interesting game. Buffalo beat Pittsburgh earlier this year while Baltimore lost two times to the Steelers.. One loss for the Bills was to the Titans who just lost to the Ravens. Buffalo had 3 turnovers in that game but still out gained the Titans in Tennessee. Knowing the way Pittsburgh shut down Jackson in the one game he played against the Steelers, should give the Bills a good game plan to shut down the one-dimension team in this game. Turnovers decide this one.
    Bills -2.5

    Cleveland At Kansas City -10. Sunday 3:05PM (52% of the public was on the Browns - and moving up )
    Browns have overcome decades of losing and finally have a real team with good players. Many of which are voted into the pro bowl. The Chiefs are still the "king of the hill" until someone knocks them off the top.
    Cleveland will draw a lot of money this week and rightfully so. Double-digit dogs didnt do well last week as the Saints covered the 11 on Chicago and while Tampa won against the Skins as a 9.5 to 10 point favorite. Ask yourself this...Is Cleveland a better 10 point dog than both Chicago and Washington? Is Kansas City really a lot better than the Saints or Tampa?
    KC was favored by 10 or more points to ATL -11, Jets-19, Denver -13, Carolina -10 and New England -11. All of which Cleveland would likely beat as well.
    The Browns are on a mission and will have all of the six starters who were out last week from Covid-China including the entire coaching staff who was also out. If Cleveland advances - this would be the biggest suprise in decades. It could happen because KC has not been as dominating this year as they ere a year ago on offense. One more important fact here is the revenge factor. kareem Hunt was cut by KC for domestic disorderly and he was picked up by the Browns. He will share a lot of info and will want to run all over the Chiefs defense that is allowing 4.6 yards per rush this year. Along with Chubb in the backfield, this should be a greta game. Who Knows...Maybe the UPSET of the TEAR! AGAIN!
    Browns +10.5 (-120) (Locked in at 10.5)

    Tampa at New Orleans -3. . Sunday 6:40PM (54% on Tampa)
    Does Brady or Brees have enough to win this game? Both teams are ranked the same on defense. The same can be said for the offenses. Brady managed to put up late scores against a Washington team with a solid defense. But the Tampa defense allowed a soft offensive Skins team to score as well. Saints beat Tampa 2 times this year and one reason why is that the Bucs turned the ball over 3 times in each game! Saints pass rush should decide the winner.
    Saints -3
    The matchup of concern through my optics is Graham...I think he's the best in the league and unable to be contained through single coverage...Ramsey is obviously a beast and what he did to Metcalf last week and throughout his career speaks for itself...Im assuming since you've posted Rams you are in the corner of Ramsey doing his thing....please speak to this match up if you can? Ty and GL
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  15. #40  
    F me, F U vinny vegas's Avatar
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    Great dialog by all. Glad I stuck to my guns. Against you on rest also. Ravens in game now...KC and Bucs. BOL.
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    Quote Originally Posted by vinny vegas View Post
    Great dialog by all. Glad I stuck to my guns. Against you on rest also. Ravens in game now...KC and Bucs. BOL.
    After today we're both 1-1.
    My front runner is Cleveland.

    Browns vs Chiefs have good enough stats that Cleveland may end up playing the Bills next week..

    This is going to be a great Super Bowl regardless of who ends up there.
    NFC is the Old Guys, AFC is the young guys.
    Just maybe an AFC win with all the Speed at QB....
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    Todays facts:
    Browns are mostly healthy today on both sides of the ball. First time since the Colts game (WEEK 5), that they had this many starters playing.

    Chiefs last 4 home games were against Carolina 33-31, Denver 22-16, Atlanta 17-14 and Chargers L 21-38.
    The Chargers games isn't really relevant because the Chiefs rested everyone. Cleveland is far better than all of those teams and they were all getting 10 or more points then. Go look it up!

    Knowing that KC barely won the other games, makes this game ripe for a underdog upset. This is so similar to what happened to Pittsburgh, and that now makes Cleveland a good bet. The Steelers regressed in their last 5 of 6 games and KC is now in that similar circumstance.
    I see today, that action is starting to come in on KC. Line drop to 9.5 -10 is moving more players to KC.

    The Browns W-L record would have been far better if you consider that the games they lost were without offensive players and defensive players. The Jets game had 4 defensive starters out and 4 receivers out. Cancel that loss and put a W there.

    Same with the loss to Baltimore in the second game. where both DB's were out. 2 linebackers as well. They still out gained the Ravens by over 100 yards, but gave up 13 free points to baltimore in that game with 2 missed Field goals and a pick 6 TD. Cancel that loss and put a W there as well.

    The Raiders game was missing top Cleveland #1 Running back Chubb plus defensive players on as well. Game was in rain storm and Both reams had season low yardage in that game with Cleveland unable to run the ball. Cancel that loss- and put a W there. Browns record would be 14-2 and just as good as KC today.
    Knowing the depth of the W-L record of Cleveland, they would be coming in here at 14-2 plus the Steeler slaughter last week 15-2, do you think the point spread would be 10 ?

    Browns can win this game. I would never pick them if they still had key players out - but today, is the best day for an under dog play Ive seen all year, because Cleveland didnt have all their defensive players back last week in Pittsburgh. Today they have
    them!

    GL
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  19. #44  
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    Quote Originally Posted by G-Man! View Post
    Todays facts:
    Browns are mostly healthy today on both sides of the ball. First time since the Colts game (WEEK 5), that they had this many starters playing.

    Chiefs last 4 home games were against Carolina 33-31, Denver 22-16, Atlanta 17-14 and Chargers L 21-38.
    The Chargers games isn't really relevant because the Chiefs rested everyone. Cleveland is far better than all of those teams and they were all getting 10 or more points then. Go look it up!

    Knowing that KC barely won the other games, makes this game ripe for a underdog upset. This is so similar to what happened to Pittsburgh, and that now makes Cleveland a good bet. The Steelers regressed in their last 5 of 6 games and KC is now in that similar circumstance.
    I see today, that action is starting to come in on KC. Line drop to 9.5 -10 is moving more players to KC.

    The Browns W-L record would have been far better if you consider that the games they lost were without offensive players and defensive players. The Jets game had 4 defensive starters out and 4 receivers out. Cancel that loss and put a W there.

    Same with the loss to Baltimore in the second game. where both DB's were out. 2 linebackers as well. They still out gained the Ravens by over 100 yards, but gave up 13 free points to baltimore in that game with 2 missed Field goals and a pick 6 TD. Cancel that loss and put a W there as well.

    The Raiders game was missing top Cleveland #1 Running back Chubb plus defensive players on as well. Game was in rain storm and Both reams had season low yardage in that game with Cleveland unable to run the ball. Cancel that loss- and put a W there. Browns record would be 14-2 and just as good as KC today.

    Knowing the depth of the W-L record of Cleveland, they would be coming in here at 14-2 plus the Steeler slaughter last week 15-2, do you think the point spread would be 10 ?

    Browns can win this game. I would never pick them if they still had key players out - but today, is the best day for an under dog play Ive seen all year, because Cleveland didnt have all their defensive players back last week in Pittsburgh. Today they have
    them!

    GL
    Top notch original write up and this additional information is very helpful, very important, relevant handicapping (no phony GOY without rationale or irrelevant trend BS).

    Much appreciated!

    GL!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbone View Post
    Top notch original write up and this additional information is very helpful, very important, relevant handicapping (no phony GOY without rationale or irrelevant trend BS).

    Much appreciated!

    GL!
    Thanks for the feedback.

    Special NOTE! Flava never picked the Chiefs all year with his system in those games I mentioned above in this write up. I hope he knows this and doesn't play KC today. If KC wasn't good enough then while giving those lesers 10 or more points, his system shouldn't have any play but Cleveland. The Browns are way better than all those teams.

    GL Flava and followers...

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  21. #46  
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    Browns ML is bold.
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