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Thread: ****************** G-Man's Divisional Playoffs. Predictions and Write-ups. *******************

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  1. #1 ****************** G-Man's Divisional Playoffs. Predictions and Write-ups. ******************* 
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    Things sure have changed this season. Losers have become winners and winners have ended up losers.

    Ravens reversed the loss against Tennessee earlier in the year and Pittsburgh has fallen to a Browns team they beat for 17 straight years at home.
    Tampa has become a winner all because of Tom Brady. The Bills have finally made it back to th payoffs after a 25 year absence.
    The Saints are back again and the Pack is back as well.

    Big opening lines are typical for home teams in division games. No road team is favored this week. There are 3 dogs with 12 wins on the season through last week. That makes for good discussion and Legitiment concerns.
    Last week Baltimore was favored in Tennessee. Tampa was favored in Washington. Now both are dogs respectively.

    LA Rams AT Green Bay -7. Saturday 4:30PM. (53% of the public is on the Packers at this posting)
    Rams have the top defense this year. They are known for hardly allowing points in the 2nd half of their games. The Rams problem is - who is really their starting QB? Going into Green Bay with that question is significant at this point of the season. Goff was NOT the starter last week because of a broken thumb and surgery just 2 weeks ago. . Wolford was injured and taken out which put Goff in. A warm weather team going into Cheese Land is an advantage for the Packers. The Packers have everything in place and also ahem one of the best offense this year and are averaging 32 points per game. If rams can keep the Packers under 28 points they can cover this. If the Rams can get to Rodgers a few time like they did last week in Seattle, they could win this. The Rams are forcing teams to go more yards per point than anyone else of the NFC play-off teams.
    Ram + 7

    Baltimore AT Buffalo -2.5. Saturday 8:15 PM. (Public is 50/50% on this game. )
    The Ravens look like the better team right now with the tight Buffalo win against the Colts. Baltimore was threatened at the end of the game by the Titans, but prevailed. The Ravens out-gained the Titans by over 192 total yards but it was all from Jackson running the ball. One-dimension teams dont usually win against balanced teams, so this week makes for an interesting game. Buffalo beat Pittsburgh earlier this year while Baltimore lost two times to the Steelers.. One loss for the Bills was to the Titans who just lost to the Ravens. Buffalo had 3 turnovers in that game but still out gained the Titans in Tennessee. Knowing the way Pittsburgh shut down Jackson in the one game he played against the Steelers, should give the Bills a good game plan to shut down the one-dimension team in this game. Turnovers decide this one.
    Bills -2.5

    Cleveland At Kansas City -10. Sunday 3:05PM (52% of the public was on the Browns - and moving up )
    Browns have overcome decades of losing and finally have a real team with good players. Many of which are voted into the pro bowl. The Chiefs are still the "king of the hill" until someone knocks them off the top.
    Cleveland will draw a lot of money this week and rightfully so. Double-digit dogs didnt do well last week as the Saints covered the 11 on Chicago and while Tampa won against the Skins as a 9.5 to 10 point favorite. Ask yourself this...Is Cleveland a better 10 point dog than both Chicago and Washington? Is Kansas City really a lot better than the Saints or Tampa?
    KC was favored by 10 or more points to ATL -11, Jets-19, Denver -13, Carolina -10 and New England -11. All of which Cleveland would likely beat as well.
    The Browns are on a mission and will have all of the six starters who were out last week from Covid-China including the entire coaching staff who was also out. If Cleveland advances - this would be the biggest suprise in decades. It could happen because KC has not been as dominating this year as they ere a year ago on offense. One more important fact here is the revenge factor. kareem Hunt was cut by KC for domestic disorderly and he was picked up by the Browns. He will share a lot of info and will want to run all over the Chiefs defense that is allowing 4.6 yards per rush this year. Along with Chubb in the backfield, this should be a greta game. Who Knows...Maybe the UPSET of the TEAR! AGAIN!
    Browns +10.5 (-120) (Locked in at 10.5)

    Tampa at New Orleans -3. . Sunday 6:40PM (54% on Tampa)
    Does Brady or Brees have enough to win this game? Both teams are ranked the same on defense. The same can be said for the offenses. Brady managed to put up late scores against a Washington team with a solid defense. But the Tampa defense allowed a soft offensive Skins team to score as well. Saints beat Tampa 2 times this year and one reason why is that the Bucs turned the ball over 3 times in each game! Saints pass rush should decide the winner.
    Saints -3
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    Love the Saints! Buffalo is a perfect matchup for the Ravens. This Ravens 'one dimension team' keeps winning and don't forget Buffalo is a one dimension team also. Ravens throw it better than Buffalo runs it. It'll be a great game, but Ravens D gets it done. Good luck with your plays!
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikRetSam View Post
    Love the Saints! Buffalo is a perfect matchup for the Ravens. This Ravens 'one dimension team' keeps winning and don't forget Buffalo is a one dimension team also. Ravens throw it better than Buffalo runs it. It'll be a great game, but Ravens D gets it done. Good luck with your plays!
    Ravens won last week on Two Big Plays by Jackson. That will be much harder against the Bills. Time of Possession will be more in favor of the Bills as well. That will limit the Ravens chances.

    Appreciate the feedback.
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    ​I love it when you fade the Ravens because we win!!! Go Ravens
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    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyVegas View Post
    ​I love it when you fade the Ravens because we win!!! Go Ravens
    Closing sides last week here went 5-1. And yes the Ravens won, but they will need a whole lot more than 20 points to win in Buffalo.

    And since you continue to post immature comments like this, they don't win because I fade them...They win because they played well enough to win.

    Going 5-1 on sides was the point, not one game...I "faded" the other 5 that lost as well...

    GL to you with Baltimore. Line dropped to -1.
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    ​I’m just messing with ya. Good luck to ya.
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    Quote Originally Posted by G-Man! View Post
    Ravens won last week on Two Big Plays by Jackson. That will be much harder against the Bills. Time of Possession will be more in favor of the Bills as well. That will limit the Ravens chances.

    Appreciate the feedback.
    Iíd take the Bills on the fact they havenít been to the playoffs in ions
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    Quote Originally Posted by wizard1183 View Post
    Iíd take the Bills on the fact they havenít been to the playoffs in ions
    Bills area solid team. Ravens have a slightly better ranking on offense and defense - but again, the Ravens played 4 games against the NFC east and lost their four games to AFC division winners. Turnovers could be a factor as the Bills had 7 games with at least 2 or more turnovers this season. Ravens only had 2 games with 2 turnovers. Both teams are young, so who ever stays the most composed will have a lot to do with that. .

    Browns are my front runners with their first shot at the Super Bowl. Covid and Injuries plagued them severely this year and they still made it.

    GL on Buffalo this week.
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    Against you at this point on all 4.

    I think Rams QB and O issues too much to overcome. Packers D good enough. Rogers way too good. Coaching of Packers will have great game plan in moving Rogers as needed and tempo. Week off helps tons. Cold weather more so though not deep freeze or snow but still cold. PDM this game...Points don’t Matter. Rogers continues MVP #s and shreds Rams

    As much as I hate Ravens and Lamar, they are hot, maybe hottest team. Glad Bills get to ding up before KC gets them. D and X factor Lamar too much IMO for bills to have answer. May come down to last sec FG but live dog and Ravens find a way on road. IF full stadium and noise, I’d go with bills. Advantage Lamar. Josh could be an X factor but I think Ravens spy him a lot more and keep him in pocket. When he runs, he’s diff maker like Lamar but difff style. But almost as effective

    KC O juggernaut, weapons, coaching and Bye week trend of, and double check me, 19-3 reg season and 5-2 post...of Andy Reid. That’s not a typo and if off at all, it’s 1 game at most. Chiefs start fast and Browns won’t recover or get put into 1 dimension. Browns new formula for success, NO COACHES ALLOWED (NCA)...that’s not case this week and bummer as a Brownie fan but I want to get paid. Now, KC has shown all year to coast at times and throttle back and No Cover, but I hope Reid shows all, especially Ravens Bills, wash, rinse REPEAT is what they do. Blowout IMO. -10 my book

    Bucs game, simply put, 3x a charm for Tommy 2 Pants. He and they find a way. And classic Saints shit show again. That demon is deep in the loins of kneeling Brees. Karma and bad mojo and voodoo got Saints # for some time and rears her ugly head again. Let alone Brees limited to dink and dunk. Payton is no genius either with his stupid QB shuffle. I’m taking points and again think a live dog exists in Bucs. Worse case I get a push but think it’s Tom getting revenge and sends Brees off to retirement while Tom waves his 1 more year in league flag at Brees.

    Hope you get a kick out of my input. I was with you last week. Sure looks like one of us is right this week. Caveat is I tend to wait last min for final final so I could always flip 1 or 2 of these, especially the smaller dogs. Love the Packers and KC most. But DD dogs are generally money but as a Browns guy, that shit sandwich taste they’ve given me last 20 years is sure hard to forget. Lol

    BOL buddy. Thx for posting. Continued success regardless of my ramblings.
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  10. #10  
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    Quote Originally Posted by vinny vegas View Post
    Against you at this point on all 4.

    I think Rams QB and O issues too much to overcome. Packers D good enough. Rogers way too good. Coaching of Packers will have great game plan in moving Rogers as needed and tempo. Week off helps tons. Cold weather more so though not deep freeze or snow but still cold. PDM this game...Points don’t Matter. Rogers continues MVP #s and shreds Rams.
    Rodgers will have a much harder time against a #1 ranked Rams defense. They are allowing under 200 yards per game passing and shut down the run as well. Green Bay stops no one defensively in passing or running - But does have the #1 offense in the NFC. These are the type of games that defenses usually keep it close and win SU because of turnovers. The 7 is too much IMO.

    As much as I hate Ravens and Lamar, they are hot, maybe hottest team. Glad Bills get to ding up before KC gets them. D and X factor Lamar too much IMO for bills to have answer. May come down to last sec FG but live dog and Ravens find a way on road. IF full stadium and noise, I’d go with bills. Advantage Lamar. Josh could be an X factor but I think Ravens spy him a lot more and keep him in pocket. When he runs, he’s diff maker like Lamar but difff style. But almost as effective
    If the Ravens didnt play 4 games against the NFC east I would give them the edge here. Granted - the Bills faced a Jets team 2 times and a broken Patriots team, but still have an unquestioned solid #2 ranked offense scoring 30 pts per game and crazy home field comfort with a solid #10 ranked defense. The Bills also pounded the Steelers and their #1 ranked defense, which Baltimore was unable to do in 2 tries. Next game is likely Browns at Bills IMO.

    KC O juggernaut, weapons, coaching and Bye week trend of, and double check me, 19-3 reg season and 5-2 post...of Andy Reid. That’s not a typo and if off at all, it’s 1 game at most. Chiefs start fast and Browns won’t recover or get put into 1 dimension. Browns new formula for success, NO COACHES ALLOWED (NCA)...that’s not case this week and bummer as a Brownie fan but I want to get paid. Now, KC has shown all year to coast at times and throttle back and No Cover, but I hope Reid shows all, especially Ravens Bills, wash, rinse REPEAT is what they do. Blowout IMO. -10 my book.
    Resting teams dont always have an advantage. Maybe KC will, but they need more than rest to win this. The Chiefs have FAILED to cover the spread in the last 8 straight games. Furthermore - they haven't won any game by more than 6 points during that stretch. In addition, the Browns are getting nearly all of their defense back - which is something they haven't had for over a month. Also, KC has allowed many more points in the last 8 games than they did in the first 8 games. In their last 8 failures against the spread thy have allowed, 31,31,24,16,27,29, 14 and 38! Their W-L record is far better than their stats for scoring since then, and are due to be beat, just like Pittsburgh was last week.

    Bucs game, simply put, 3x a charm for Tommy 2 Pants. He and they find a way. And classic Saints shit show again. That demon is deep in the loins of kneeling Brees. Karma and bad mojo and voodoo got Saints # for some time and rears her ugly head again. Let alone Brees limited to dink and dunk. Payton is no genius either with his stupid QB shuffle. I’m taking points and again think a live dog exists in Bucs. Worse case I get a push but think it’s Tom getting revenge and sends Brees off to retirement while Tom waves his 1 more year in league flag at Brees.
    Beating Brady twice is no accident. As his Career was fantastic, he had many years of playing in his weakest division with 3 of the worst teams during his career, Jets , Phins and Bills. If Tampa can figure out the Saints, we'll see. But NO has Kamala and if TB can stop him then yes - they win. But Brees is simply still at the top of his game as is Brady, so the game plan for the Saints has worked each time against him and would be hard to undo-that in the Dome.

    Hope you get a kick out of my input. I was with you last week. Sure looks like one of us is right this week. Caveat is I tend to wait last min for final final so I could always flip 1 or 2 of these, especially the smaller dogs. Love the Packers and KC most. But DD dogs are generally money but as a Browns guy, that shit sandwich taste they’ve given me last 20 years is sure hard to forget. Lol

    BOL buddy. Thx for posting. Continued success regardless of my ramblings.
    I always appreciate feedback. It takes a lot of time to cap the games and most of the process isnt posted in the write-ups, but I do try to reply with continued facts on the plays and why.

    GL on the games.
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  11. #11  
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    The first playoff game Jackson isn't suppose to win via point spread. lets see if Ravens can get it done
    Bills have no running game except Allen and a swiss cheese defense
    Hopefully they can be a team that rises to the occasion like the 2006 Colts who had a bad defense that stepped up in the playoffs
    Go Bills
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    Totally Agree GMAN...love the discussions and point counter points...helps me at least to shape or see another perspective and IF needed, change my tune...LOL

    Packers...just think you and others against selling them short and the rest for minor injuries for them important. Rams on other hand have MAJOR QB issue and neither is a Nick Foles scenario at all...discounting that position I think will be your downfall in analysis. Plus Rodgers is too good and too mobile to allow what Rams did to SHawks...too many weapons for Rodgers to expose their D. Outside of Rodgers getting hurt and out of game, Packers win SU and I expect an ATS cover. Packers D will get some TOs also to help with cover.

    Glad you brought up Bills 2x Jets mtgs to balance scales a bit on competition faced...but arguably regardless of opponents, Ravens HOTTEST team all phases. IF Ravens faced KC this weekend, I'd be on Ravens. Next week, NOPE and will share why once we get to that analysis. Home field means zero in this game IMO. I think again lack of crowd noise helps Lamar more or doesn't play a factor when normally it would. I'll take points on hottest team in NFL current. I think you can stop w/ any PITT references since we saw what a train wreck they've become...from JuJu opening big mouth to Ben looking like Moses on the Mount!! OLD AS DIRT. Divisional rival games play much differently regular season so outcomes of those do nothing for me other than maybe at best opponents picking up tendencies or potential ways to stop or succeed on them. Game plan is in place already. Execution and adjustments and who makes them the best will determine this game...outside of fluke TOs or a TO that completely changes momentum.

    You didn't address at all Andy Reid's BYE week record...given their ahead of curve play making & calling on Offense on top of extra week to game plan (BTW did you notice even Alabama used a KC Chiefs type play to score TD in RED ZONE)...discounting that to me is almost criminal. On top of my biggest factor of all...BROWNS just exercised every damn demon of Pitt's dominance on them...their SUPER BOWL was just won, can you say deflation Browns? And that took an unbelievable amount of Pitt errors/TOs and the score didn't hardly show that. Browns are infants in terms of playoff experience vs a SB champion of less than a year ago...I'll give the points gladly in what I see as a blowout...Browns haven't shown any ability to sustain consistent play, especially seeing that Jets game and Pitt game w/o any of Pitts rested players they still & Rudolph at QB.

    Totally understand your retort on Saints game...I'll take Brady all day any day vs what I'm seeing in Brees and his sorry A$$ passes. If you think his dink and dunk 5-10 yard passing is formula to winning...oh and bring in fake QB2 for crucial plays...I think 3rd time is charm...I may flip on this but luckily its final game of week and night so gives me a little longer to drink over. Sorry, I don't think Brees is 'top' of any game. Just my opinion. He's more broken than Manning's were at the end of both their runs...give me points for now.

    Best of luck G-Man!!
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    Always respect your write ups, much appreciated.


    (RE: LAR/GB, I fear a cold weather game is too much to overcome for the Rams, Rodgers will be successful thru the air, Goff or Wofford will not, and if Donald is out, game over. Even if Donald plays he might not be himself, despite shots to his ribs he might be less than his usual spectacular self, just my opinion / in support of your Browns pick, I find that if an NFL team getting 7 pts or more can run for 150 years or more, they really tend to cover ATS)
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    Quote Originally Posted by vinny vegas View Post
    Totally Agree GMAN...love the discussions and point counter points...helps me at least to shape or see another perspective and IF needed, change my tune...LOL

    Packers...just think you and others against selling them short and the rest for minor injuries for them important. Rams on other hand have MAJOR QB issue and neither is a Nick Foles scenario at all...discounting that position I think will be your downfall in analysis. Plus Rodgers is too good and too mobile to allow what Rams did to SHawks...too many weapons for Rodgers to expose their D. Outside of Rodgers getting hurt and out of game, Packers win SU and I expect an ATS cover. Packers D will get some TOs also to help with cover.

    Not a major issue when your starting QB is playing. He did enough last week in Seattle. What Foles did for Philly was at his peak in his career. In addition, Philly had the best defense then if I recall. Something the Rams have now... Since then, Foles been far less effective when he played.
    I didnt say the Packers won't win. Im saying ATS the Rams are a good play because they have the best defense in the league. It is possible for GB to win SU but thats a side note.


    Glad you brought up Bills 2x Jets mtgs to balance scales a bit on competition faced...but arguably regardless of opponents, Ravens HOTTEST team all phases. IF Ravens faced KC this weekend, I'd be on Ravens. Next week, NOPE and will share why once we get to that analysis. Home field means zero in this game IMO. I think again lack of crowd noise helps Lamar more or doesn't play a factor when normally it would. I'll take points on hottest team in NFL current. I think you can stop w/ any PITT references since we saw what a train wreck they've become...from JuJu opening big mouth to Ben looking like Moses on the Mount!! LOL!!! OLD AS DIRT. Divisional rival games play much differently regular season so outcomes of those do nothing for me other than maybe at best opponents picking up tendencies or potential ways to stop or succeed on them. Game plan is in place already. Execution and adjustments and who makes them the best will determine this game...outside of fluke TOs or a TO that completely changes momentum.
    Bills are just as hot if not hotter. The demolition of Miami was apparent. Last week they beat a solid team on both sides. Plus there were no turnovers in that game which was rare in playoff games. Again they beat Pitt - while the Ravens couldn't.

    You didn't address at all Andy Reid's BYE week record...given their ahead of curve play making & calling on Offense on top of extra week to game plan (BTW did you notice even Alabama used a KC Chiefs type play to score TD in RED ZONE)...discounting that to me is almost criminal. On top of my biggest factor of all...BROWNS just exercised every damn demon of Pitt's dominance on them...their SUPER BOWL was just won, can you say deflation Browns? And that took an unbelievable amount of Pitt errors/TOs and the score didn't hardly show that. Browns are infants in terms of playoff experience vs a SB champion of less than a year ago...I'll give the points gladly in what I see as a blowout...Browns haven't shown any ability to sustain consistent play, especially seeing that Jets game and Pitt game w/o any of Pitts rested players they still & Rudolph at QB.

    Bye-weeks are over rated IMO unless they allow starters to return from injuries. Reid didnt fare well this year as he didnt cover the spread after a bye this year. - barely winning against a failed Raiders team 35-31 laying 7 points. Series consideration must be noted that the Browns just may be the best team that KC has faced since mid season now because the Browns are almost at full health on defense.

    Totally understand your retort on Saints game...I'll take Brady all day any day vs what I'm seeing in Brees and his sorry A$$ passes. If you think his dink and dunk 5-10 yard passing is formula to winning...oh and bring in fake QB2 for crucial plays...I think 3rd time is charm...I may flip on this but luckily its final game of week and night so gives me a little longer to drink over. Sorry, I don't think Brees is 'top' of any game. Just my opinion. He's more broken than Manning's were at the end of both their runs...give me points for now.

    Brady is the king of the short passing game. He puts drives together that kill clock when ahead. Problem is, that if they aren't leading Brees can do the same with his short game as well. . Fake 2 QB worked at that time and that QB won 2 games while Brees was out for those games. Who can play QB if Brady goes down...?

    Best of luck G-Man!!
    Good points for all readers. Thanks
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbone View Post
    Always respect your write ups, much appreciated.


    (RE: LAR/GB, I fear a cold weather game is too much to overcome for the Rams, Rodgers will be successful thru the air, Goff or Wofford will not, and if Donald is out, game over. Even if Donald plays he might not be himself, despite shots to his ribs he might be less than his usual spectacular self, just my opinion / in support of your Browns pick, I find that if an NFL team getting 7 pts or more can run for 150 years or more, they really tend to cover ATS)
    Thanks for the feedback. If the temperature is over 32 there wont be any advantage. Supposed to be 33+ and cloudy with no rain or snow in the forecast and the game starts at 3:30 pm central time.
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    This is how a thread should be conducted. People can disagree and be respectful...... who knew? Haha
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    Good info here. Appreciate the time and work from everyone.
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    Quote Originally Posted by MLB View Post
    This is how a thread should be conducted. People can disagree and be respectful...... who knew? Haha
    It s how we always conducted ourselves back in the days at another site. Until they start throwing shit and we had to respond. Flava was the first to leave to come here. I arrived later...


    Quote Originally Posted by MLB View Post
    Good info here. Appreciate the time and work from everyone.
    My input is based on various data and how I interpret it. Everyones input adds insight we may not have known before -or something we missed while capping. Been at it since 1993...

    Sharing is caring!
    Feedback is always appreciated.
    Thanks.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbone View Post
    Always respect your write ups, much appreciated.


    (RE: LAR/GB, I fear a cold weather game is too much to overcome for the Rams, Rodgers will be successful thru the air, Goff or Wofford will not, and if Donald is out, game over. Even if Donald plays he might not be himself, despite shots to his ribs he might be less than his usual spectacular self, just my opinion / in support of your Browns pick, I find that if an NFL team getting 7 pts or more can run for 150 years or more, they really tend to cover ATS)
    Yep. Rams have a pretty good defense. Question is can the QB show up? I think they cover the 7
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    Quote Originally Posted by MLB View Post
    This is how a thread should be conducted. People can disagree and be respectful...... who knew? Haha
    Quote Originally Posted by MLB View Post
    Good info here. Appreciate the time and work from everyone.
    Quote Originally Posted by G-Man! View Post
    It s how we always conducted ourselves back in the days at another site. Until they start throwing shit and we had to respond. Flava was the first to leave to come here. I arrived later...




    My input is based on various data and how I interpret it. Everyones input adds insight we may not have known before -or something we missed while capping. Been at it since 1993...

    Sharing is caring!
    Feedback is always appreciated.

    Thanks.
    This is what I always ask for, when posters put GOY and Max Play and Rare Play with no explanation, whatsoever, I ask for rationale, get no answer, then I get trashed by a few of the poster's followers. Some other consistent posters (example, Willie), who are not looking for attention, when asked, have excellent rationale when I have asked them and I take them seriously. Those that do not answer, I never, ever follow unless I have capped it with the same result on my own and/or with other input.

    GL!
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  21. #21  
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    Quote Originally Posted by G-Man! View Post
    Good points for all readers. Thanks
    Valid points all...

    Agree Rams could cover and agree Packers should win...QB1 Rams surgery thumb and while he did do enough, more so SeaChickens less, I think we see a diff QB1 performance, not as good but worse with colder elements for 1 and Packers D other. They are a good bunch, not ranked like Rams but Good.

    Agree Bills coin flip...hope if I'm Ravens which I like MOST of the 2...coin lands on them...this game certainly has that last drive for WIN feel.

    KC did win after bye vs Raiders and if not for a 1H rare INT by Mahomes to end half inside at Raiders 3 yard line...rivalry games like that hard to run away from opponent. KC dominated stat wise and like I said, KC has become everyone's Super Bowl during regular season, so not a shocker many of their games close and though I think KC is clearly superior to most NFL teams, it's still the NFL and any given Sunday, so their separation isn't TDs most of time...it's a big play here or there and like in this game, you give Mahomes ball with time to score to win...he's hard to stop. I don't trust Browns enough yet. Especially vs KC who's seasoned. Browns only formula is to run run run and keep Mahomes off field. KC will load the box to stop run and DBs are more than capable of stopping Baker who tends to gun sling too much and I doubt he changes. I'm not sure what you call it, but the fact that Pitt came back to make last game close vs Browns burying them, tells me something. KC wouldn't have allowed that. 10 is a lot of point to cover, and I see you being 100% on them covering IF Browns stick to game plan but will they or do you trust them if they get down 2 TDs? I do not.

    Brady had 381 w/ TD passes of 36 & 27...Brees 265 TD passes of 11 & 6 yards--last weeks games...I'll bank on someone who can actually throw it down the field more than 15 yards. Brees cannot and when does its short or inaccurate, hence the dink and dunk comment. Brady will stretch the DBs...Bucs DBs don't have to worry about that 1 bit ;) QB2 Saints is a threat but I love seeing the hits he's continuing to take and did get dinged w/ face/head plant into turf--waiting for that hit that knocks him out of game and that threat gone. Very true losing Brady and it's game over and pretty much been that way for his 40 year career but how many times has that actually happened in that 40 years....HAHA

    Not trying at all to get you off your sides as I think you have solid reasons. The Saints & Bucs are coin flips based on which old dude plays best or stays in game...KC should win but again coin flip on Covering...Ravens coin flip on which QB makes least mistakes...probably why we love this damn game so much and especially during playoffs.
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    Quote Originally Posted by vinny vegas View Post
    Valid points all...

    Agree Rams could cover and agree Packers should win...QB1 Rams surgery thumb and while he did do enough, more so SeaChickens less, I think we see a diff QB1 performance, not as good but worse with colder elements for 1 and Packers D other. They are a good bunch, not ranked like Rams but Good.

    Agree Bills coin flip...hope if I'm Ravens which I like MOST of the 2...coin lands on them...this game certainly has that last drive for WIN feel.

    KC did win after bye vs Raiders and if not for a 1H rare INT by Mahomes to end half inside at Raiders 3 yard line...rivalry games like that hard to run away from opponent. KC dominated stat wise and like I said, KC has become everyone's Super Bowl during regular season, so not a shocker many of their games close and though I think KC is clearly superior to most NFL teams, it's still the NFL and any given Sunday, so their separation isn't TDs most of time...it's a big play here or there and like in this game, you give Mahomes ball with time to score to win...he's hard to stop. I don't trust Browns enough yet. Especially vs KC who's seasoned. Browns only formula is to run run run and keep Mahomes off field. KC will load the box to stop run and DBs are more than capable of stopping Baker who tends to gun sling too much and I doubt he changes. I'm not sure what you call it, but the fact that Pitt came back to make last game close vs Browns burying them, tells me something. KC wouldn't have allowed that. 10 is a lot of point to cover, and I see you being 100% on them covering IF Browns stick to game plan but will they or do you trust them if they get down 2 TDs? I do not.

    Brady had 381 w/ TD passes of 36 & 27...Brees 265 TD passes of 11 & 6 yards--last weeks games...I'll bank on someone who can actually throw it down the field more than 15 yards. Brees cannot and when does its short or inaccurate, hence the dink and dunk comment. Brady will stretch the DBs...Bucs DBs don't have to worry about that 1 bit ;) QB2 Saints is a threat but I love seeing the hits he's continuing to take and did get dinged w/ face/head plant into turf--waiting for that hit that knocks him out of game and that threat gone. Very true losing Brady and it's game over and pretty much been that way for his 40 year career but how many times has that actually happened in that 40 years....HAHA

    Not trying at all to get you off your sides as I think you have solid reasons. The Saints & Bucs are coin flips based on which old dude plays best or stays in game...KC should win but again coin flip on Covering...Ravens coin flip on which QB makes least mistakes...probably why we love this damn game so much and especially during playoffs.
    A response to the bolded lines above.
    Here is where data can surprise you. First - KC cannot load the box and stop the run. Not on the best running tandem in the NFL. Second, KC held Five(5) of the last Six(6) opponents to under 100 yards rushing. But its so misleading, because they allow 4.7 yards per rush.
    Against Denver, the Broncos ran for 179 yards and that alone kept the scoring way down for KC in a 22-16 win at home for the Chiefs. This is all "game plan preparation" and that is why underdogs can surprise in a game like this.

    Baker is far better this season with his Slinging ways. His TDs are up and his Ints are way down. Thats what better coaches can do with game plans suited to the offense.

    Pitt never really came back. It was the intentional coaching defensive changes to just keep the ball in front of the defense. In nearly all the Browns wins, they do this in every game when leading. They did the exact same thing when they Played Tennessee. They had a 38-7 lead at halftime and allowed it to happen. That one note you mentioned is what will pull everyone to KC, when it is so misleading. Cleveland created every turnover with a severe pass rush that was very disguising and won the game. With Browns DB'S back for this game, Mahomes wont get too comfortable once Myles Garrett & Company start breaking through.. Just ask Pittsburgh...
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    More variables with larger spreads but if you think a team will win, take them to cover. In NFL, when a team wins (it could be dog winning outright) they cover 80%, in the playoffs its 89% when they win, they cover!


    Quote Originally Posted by wizard1183 View Post
    Yep. Rams have a pretty good defense. Question is can the QB show up? I think they cover the 7
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikRetSam View Post
    More variables with larger spreads but if you think a team will win, take them to cover. In NFL, when a team wins (it could be dog winning outright) they cover 80%, in the playoffs its 89% when they win, they cover!
    I knew it was 83%. Didnít know 89 come playoffs.
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    Just pick the winner! Tricky part if that sometimes dogs win outright.

    Quote Originally Posted by wizard1183 View Post
    I knew it was 83%. Didn’t know 89 come playoffs.
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