My bets ******& Different amounts wagers On Each Bet W/L

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 18, 2021

FUTURES FROM WILLIAM HILL SPORTS BOOK NV

Updated Mon, Jan. 4, 7:15 AM ET

ODDS TO WIN AFC CHAMPIONSHIP (1/24/21)

	American	Fractional
***** Kansas City Chiefs [In Action]	-120	5/6
Buffalo Bills	+350	7/2
Baltimore Ravens	+650	7/1
Pittsburgh Steelers	+1000	10/1
Tennessee Titans	+1300	13/1
Indianapolis Colts	+1500	15/1
Cleveland Browns	+1800	18/1

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

ODDS TO WIN NFC CHAMPIONSHIP (1/24/21)

****Green Bay Packers [ In Action +160 8/5
*****New Orleans Saints[ Lost ] +275 11/4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +400 4/1
Seattle Seahawks +450 9/2
Los Angeles Rams +1200 12/1
Chicago Bears +3300 33/1
Washington Football Team +3300 33/1

Updated Mon, Jan. 4, 7:15 AM ET - - Subject to Change [ My bets ******& Different amounts wagers On Each Bet

021 SUPER BOWL ODDS TO WIN

******Chiefs: +200 {My Bet Is In On This Game** [In Action]

Packers: +450

Saints: +700

Bills: +700

Buccaneers: +1000

Ravens: +1200

Seahawks: +1300

Steelers: +2200 Titans: +2800 Rams: +3000

The Chiefs are not only the favorites in this game but the overall favorites to win the Super Bowl yet again. Mahomes and company own one of, if not, the most explosive offenses in the entire league. The defense for Kansas City has also played well, making this year's Chiefs team a tough out for any team..The Kansas City Chiefs were given the bye in the Wild Card round due to their league-best 14-2 record. That 14-2 record includes the Chiefs Week 17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in a game that the Chiefs sat many starting players like Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill. The line here seems just about right, but I like KC on Money Line besides my future bet. -$500 [ laying 5-1 Win

he Los Angeles Rams shouldn't be taken lightly after what they just did to the Seahawks last week, and their defensive effort gives them a fighting chance each week. Green Bay Packers are also one of the hotter teams in the league with a red hot offense, and seven of their last 10 wins have been decided by double digits.However, the Rams are still a banged up football team and have a limited Goff at the quarterback position. I'm also not sure how much I trust visitors going into Lambeau this time of year where it's freezing and horrible weather conditions. If the Packers keep scoring at this clip, I don't see the hobbled Rams finding the firepower to respond

. Green Bay -6 [Buying The Hook] Win
Yes I have the same bets on futures..ODDS TO WIN AFC CHAMPIONSHIP (1/24/21)

ODDS TO WIN AFC CHAMPIONSHIP (1/24/21)

Team American Fractional
***** Kansas City Chiefs [ In Action ] -120 5/6

ODDS TO WIN NFC CHAMPIONSHIP (1/24/21)

*****Green Bay Packers+160 8/5*****New Orleans Saints+275 11/4 [ Lost ]

Iam betting his Bonus 6-Point Teaser: Packers -0.5, Buccaneers +9 Win I did some research with both of these teams. In my option Packers are in with points, flip side I don't believe Saints will win by that many points. I see this matchup with in 6.. The odds makers are looking at a field goal...

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 18, 2021

The positive news is that it seems that Mahomes could potentially be good to go for the AFC Championship Game next week in Arrowhead Stadium. Chiefs coach Andy Reid said postgame that Mahomes is doing well and that he passed all the preliminary tests. Mahomes will still have to pass protocol during the week in order to be eligible for championship Sunday.

varkeyboy · Jan 18, 2021

Going to be a very interesting week, Harry!

XXII · Jan 18, 2021

I’m all over Buffalo +3.5 -130

MikRetSam · Jan 18, 2021

Right now this number is in limbo, expecting Mahomes to play... this line will go up if/when Mahomes gets confirmed. If you think Mahomes will start and you like the Bills, wait for line to go up.

If Mahomes is ruled out, this line goes to Buff-2.5/3.

I feel 90% Mahomes plays.

XXII said:
I’m all over Buffalo +3.5 -130

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 18, 2021

Excellent analysis & stat's by Brett Nault

Excellent analysis & stat's by Brett Nault Contributor DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Exclusive ratings & There Calculated Point Spreads With Trends & Statistics and Indicators. Intelligent Analysis of the NFL Compliments From ~Hårr¥THëHÄT~

Defensively, Buffalo allowing their opponents to average 23.4 ppg on 352.5 total yards per game (232.9 passing yds/g; 119.6 rushing yds/g).
The Kansas City Chiefs kept their hopes of winning back-to-back Superbowl’s alive after defeating the Cleveland Brown, 22-17, this past Sunday. Kansas City looked like they were going to cruise to victory in the 2nd half after going into halftime with a 19-3 lead, however, after a concussion that knocked out Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City needed some key plays late by backup Chad Hanne to hang on for the victory. Kansas City outgained Cleveland by a 438-308 margin while also winning the turnover battle by a 2-1 margin in the victory.

Leading the way for the Chiefs was TE Travis Kelce who had 8 receptions for 109 yards & 1 TD.
In the regular season, Kansas City averaged 29.6 ppg on 415.8 total yards per game (303.4 passing yds/g; 112.4 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Kansas City has been led by QB Patrick Mahomes who has completed 66.3% of his passes for 4,740 yards (336.5 passing yds/g), 38 TD, & 6 INT.

The top receiving threats for the Mahomes and the Chiefs have been Travis Kelce (105 rec, 1,416 yards, 11 TD), Tyreek Hill (87 rec, 1,276 yards, 15 TD), Mecole Hardman (41 rec, 560 yards, 4 TD), & Demarcus Robinson (45 rec, 466 yards, 3 TD). Leading the way for the Kansas City backfield has been Clyde Edwards-Helaire (181 att, 803 yards, 4 TD), Le’Veon Bell (63 att, 254 yards, 2 TD), & Darrel Williams (39 att, 169 yards, 1 TD). Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn’t missed the entire playoffs, but as he was close to playing last Sunday, I think he will be able to go in this one.

Defensively, Kansas City is allowing their opponents to average 22.6 ppg on 358.3 total yards per game (236.2 passing yds/g; 122.1 rushing yds/g).
The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

We will obviously have to monitor the status of Patrick Mahomes throughout the week to make sure he is able to go, however, early indications look like he will be able to play and my current pick assumes that he will be able to go on Sunday. Buffalo has had an incredible season and was impressive defensively against Baltimore, however, I just don’t see their defense being able to slow down the Kansas City passing attack in this one. Kansas defeated Buffalo by a 26-17 margin on the road earlier this season and as I expect a similar result at home in this one, I’m taking Kansas City to cover this small spread. Good Luck! Brett Nault!

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 18, 2021

I post a lot of information from different sources. So everyone looks at my threads can see besides my picks & bets ,so you can judge matchup for yourselves. In my view you just can't,get enough info, and I reach out to everyone old school handcapiers, analysts and so on. I also research Pros & Cons from different aspects of match-ups and post them. Members looking at my threads make there own options. Best Of Luck in the Conference Games!!!!! Lets Just Win !!!!

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 19, 2021

Green Bay & Tampa Bay By Ron Romanelli [ Handcappier ]

Green Bay & Tampa Bay By Ron Romanelli [ Handcappier ] Contributor DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Exclusive ratings & There Calculated Point Spreads With Trends & Statistics and Indicators. Intelligent Analysis of the NFL Compliments From ~Hårr¥THëHÄT~

The Green Bay Packers kept the train rolling at home with a 32-18 win over the Los Angeles Rams last time out. Aaron Rodgers threw for 296 yards and 2 touchdowns on 23 of 36 passing while Aaron Jones rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries and Jamaal Williams had 65 rushing yards on 12 carries. Allen Lazard led the Pack with 96 receiving yards and a touchdown while Davante Adams added a tea-high 9 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown of his own. On defense, Krys Barnes led the Packers with 10 total tackles including 7 solo tackles while Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark each had 1.5 sacks and Za’Darius Smith added a sack as well.

Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog while the over is 25-10 in their last 35 road games. Green Bay is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall while the over is 8-0 in their last 8 games in January. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.

This headline of Brady vs. Rodgers is super bowl worthy on the marquee, but if we’re being honest, Tom Brady has shown signs of decline this season and he hasn’t been able to use this Bucs’ receiving group to its full potential as Brady’s just not taking shots downfield like he used to and it’s allowing opposing defenses to play deep and keep everything in front of them. The Bucs also don’t have a dominant ground attack to take advantage of Green Bay’s one weakness on defense. Aaron Rodgers at home in the playoffs is just another animal, and while it’s a shame one legend has to go down here,
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn’t get out to a fast start against the New Orleans Saints in the last game, but at halftime they managed to be tied, and in the second they dominated. In the second half the Bucs defense gave up only seven points and that led to the victory. Quarterback Tom Brady threw for 199 yards and two touchdowns. Cameron Brate was the leading receiver catching four passes for 50 yards. Overall this season, Tampa Bay is averaging 30.7 points per game while their defense is giving up 22.1 points per game. On defense ,Tampa Bay is allowing opponents to only rush for 82.2 yards per game on the ground and making the Packers one dimensional in this game is going to be important.

On the other side of this matchup is the Green Bay Packers who had a no sweat victory over the Los Angeles Rams in the divisional round. The Packers held the Rams to only 18 points while their offense scored 32 points. Aaron Rodgers had a big game throwing for 295 yards and two touchdowns. Aaron Jones also rushed 14 times for 99 yards and a touchdown. On the season, the Packers are averaging 31.8 points per game while their defense is giving up 22.8 points per game. In this game for the Packers it’s going to be all about the offense getting out to a fast start and running up the score. They should try to put the pressure on Brady to try and keep up. I’m afraid it’s Tom Brady as Rodgers’ ability to go downfield and keep the defense honest is the difference here. I’ll lay the points with Green Bay in this one.~ Best Of Luck Ron Romanelli~

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 19, 2021

~Jeff Sagarin NFL Rating~

The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS), GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.

NFL 2020 through games of 2021 January 17 Sunday - Divisional Weekend
RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16

| PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.32] [ 0.32] [ 0.34] [ 0.32]

1 Buffalo Bills = 26.88 15 3 0 20.48( 11) 5 1 0 | 9 3 0 | 25.96 5 | 26.49 3 | 29.60 1 (afc east)

2 Kansas City Chiefs = 26.82 15 2 0 20.12( 16) 4 0 0 | 7 1 0 | 27.26 1 | 28.18 1 | 25.42 5 (afc west)

3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 26.80 13 5 0 20.58( 9) 2 4 0 | 3 4 0 | 26.70 3 | 26.23 4 | 27.79 2 (NFC SOUTH)

4 New Orleans Saints = 26.32 13 5 0 20.46( 12) 2 3 0 | 4 3 0 | 26.59 4 | 26.74 2 | 25.61 4 (NFC SOUTH)

5 Green Bay Packers = 26.20 14 3 0 18.94( 31) 2 2 0 | 4 2 0 | 25.79 6 | 25.67 6 | 27.65 3 (NFC NORTH)

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 19, 2021

~nfl money line movement~

NFL MONEY LINE

01/24 3:05 PM 311 Tampa Bay 312 Green Bay	+160 -190	+150 -170	+145 -175	+152 -172	+160 -180	+150 -170	+165 -185	+155 -177	+150 -170
01/24 6:40 PM 313 Buffalo 314 *****Kansas City	-150 +130	+125 -145	+120 -145	+125 -143	+125 -145	+130 -150	+135 -155	+125 -141	+125 -143

NFL SPREAD

01/24 3:05 PM 311 Tampa Bay 312 Green Bay	52u-06 -3½ -05	51u-10 -3 -20	51u-10 -3 -20	52½u-39	51u-10 -3½ EV	51u-10 -3 -20	51u-10 -3 -20	50½o-13 -3½ -07	51u-10 -3 -20
01/24 6:40 PM 313 Buffalo 314 Kansas City	56u-10 -2½ -10	53½u-10 -2½ -20	53½u-10 -2½ -20	52½o-22 -3 +05	53½u-10 -2½ -20	53½u-10 -3 EV	53½u-10 -3 EV	53o-13 -2½ -15	53½u-10 -2½ -15

Updated: Tue, Jan 19 01:00 PM EDT

Updated: Tue, Jan 19 12:52 PM EDT [ Wise Guys and Sharps moved this money line from plus to minus !!!!! What's That Tell You? The line never moved with the money!!!! Chalk one up for the wise guys/// LOL !!!

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 20, 2021

Excellent Analysis & Stat's by Oliver Hodgkinson Contributor DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders

Excellent Analysis & Stat's by Oliver Hodgkinson Contributor DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Exclusive ratings & There Calculated Point Spreads With Trends & Statistics and Indicators. Intelligent Analysis of the NFL Compliments From ~Hårr¥THëHÄT~

NFL Conference Championship Predictions Against the Spread

All spread lines They are, of course, subject to change the closer we get to kickoff.
Sunday, January 24th, 3:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4.0) @ Green Bay Packers (-4.0)

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers brutally disposed of the number one defense in their Divisional Round win over the Los Angeles Rams. Their reward? A date with Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Conference Championship.
Stopping the Packers this season has been a difficult task. Rodgers has been at his utter best, seemingly motivated by the Packers’ decision to draft his heir apparent in the 2020 NFL Draft. Furthermore, Davante Adams has been the best wide receiver in the league.

Between Rodgers, Adams, and a triple-headed monster out of the backfield, the Packers have had the best scoring offense in the NFL this season. They have scored a touchdown on a remarkable 9.1 percent of passing plays. For context, the closest team to them was the Seattle Seahawks with 7.1 percent.
Only the Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings, and the Buccaneers have been able to slow them down — important context for this NFL prediction. Only the Buccaneers defense stands between Rodgers and his first Super Bowl appearance since guiding the Packers to Super Bowl XLV

The last time the two teams met, Ronald Jones II ran wild over the Packers defense. His 2 touchdowns and 113 yards propelled Tampa Bay to a 38-10 victory. As much as this game will be touted as Rodgers vs. Brady, it will be the Packers’ ability to shut down the Buccaneers run game that will ultimately decide who advances to the Super Bowl. The two quarterbacks struggled for a combined 326 yards, with Rodgers throwing 2 interceptions.

If there is any defense set up to beat the Packers, it is this Tampa Bay unit. They were the number one ranked rush defense through the regular season, allowing just 80.6 yards per game. Additionally, they only allowed 10 touchdowns all season.
They are also one of the most productive pass defenses in terms of forcing turnovers. The Buccaneers forced an interception on 2.4 percent of pass plays against them. That was dramatically demonstrated in their Divisional Round win over the New Orleans Saints.
Despite this, it’s difficult to see the Tampa Bay offense going toe to toe with the Green Bay offense. Brady reaching a Super Bowl with a team other than the New England Patriots would be an incredible storyline. However, it will be Rodgers who has the opportunity to add another Lombardi Trophy to his résumé.
NFL predictions against the spread for the NFC Conference Championship — Packers win and cover the spread.

Final score prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28, Green Bay Packers 35

NFL Conference Championship Predictions Against the Spread

Sunday, January 24th, 6:40 PM ET

Buffalo Bills (+2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs fought off the Cleveland Browns to book their Conference Championship place. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills stymied the NFL’s premier rushing offense to beat the Baltimore Ravens and secure their first Conference Championship appearance since the 1993 season. The two teams revisit their Week 6 showdown, with the winner earning the right to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LV.

Their ability to shut down the Ravens’ rushing attack on Saturday night may prove crucial to the Bills’ chances of reversing their Week 6 defeat. Buffalo allowed 245 total rushing yards, including 161 to rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, as the Chiefs won 26-17 back in October. If the Bills can replicate the run defense that limited the Ravens, this NFL prediction could get tricky as they will have a better chance of causing an upset against the Chiefs than they did in the regular season.

A tale of two quarterbacks

Equally critical will be the play of Josh Allen. The Bills’ quarterback was limited to a season-low 122 passing yards when the two teams met. Since then, Allen’s relationship with wide receiver Stefon Diggs has become one of the most potent in the NFL. As a result, it’s difficult to imagine that the Chiefs limit Diggs to just 46 receiving yards again. Due to their non-existent run game, the Bills really live or die on the passing game’s success.

For all the talk of the Bills’ defense and offense, the game could hang on the health of Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs’ quarterback took a nasty hit against the Browns. Looking dazed, confused, and barely able to walk, it was a troubling sight for Chiefs fans. Although they hung on for the win without him, Chad Henne’s performance doesn’t inspire confidence in the Kansas City offense if Mahomes is ruled out.
Presuming that Mahomes is good to go on Sunday, we should be set for a high-scoring showdown. Although I expect it to be closer than their Week 6 matchup, the result will ultimately be the same. Mahomes will outlast Allen, and the Chiefs head to Tampa Bay, looking to secure a second consecutive Super Bowl.
NFL predictions against the spread for the AFC Conference Championship — Kansas City wins and covers the spread.

Final score prediction: Buffalo Bills 24, Kansas City Chiefs 31

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 21, 2021

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes returned to the practice field Wednesday

UPDATED JANUARY 20, 2021 03:15 PM

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes returned to the practice field Wednesday, three days after an injury prompted his early departure from a playoff game and he entered the NFL concussion protocol.
It’s a potential step toward a return for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game, though it’s not the final one. “He looked good. He’s in the protocol, so there’s only certain things he can do, and it’s a limited basis, but today is a limited practice, so this fit right into what he could do,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. Will Mahomes be part of that game? He must clear the NFL’s five-step concussion protocol to answer affirmatively, a process that concludes with clearance from an independent neurological consultant.

Mahomes was tackled on a quarterback run during the third quarter of Sunday’s 22-17 playoff win against the Browns. When he attempted to stand, he staggered, needing help from teammate Mike Remmers to balance. Mahomes jogged to the locker room, where he passed ensuing evaluation tests, Reid said. But he did not return to the game. The Chiefs have not said whether Mahomes was actually diagnosed with a concussion, but he is in the league’s concussion protocol. A player can be placed in the protocol with symptoms of a concussion.

Reid said cornerback Bashaud Breeland remains in the concussion protocol after leaving Sunday’s game to be evaluated for a head injury and is “working through it.” He was able to practice Wednesday, as were rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (hip, ankle) and veteran receiver Sammy Watkins (calf). The only Chiefs player who did not practice in some measure Wednesday was rookie linebacker Willie Gay Jr. (ankle).
- Maybe you got a look at Henne for the first time when he threw for 218 yards and two scores against the Chargers in Week 17, but he’s been in the league for a while. He was drafted out of Michigan by the Miami in the second round of the 2008 NFL Draft. He appeared in 36 games as a Dolphin over four seasons and logged 31 starts before getting the boot when Ryan Tannehill was drafted in 2012.
  
  Henne went on to have a five-season stint with the Jacksonville before joining the Chiefs to back up Mahomes. Henne isn’t MVP material or even regular starter material, but he also isn’t a slouch. He’s thrown for 13,208 passing yards and 60 touchdowns and could be of use to Kansas City again come next Sunday’s matchup against the Buffalo Bills..... Knowing Andy Reid he might use both quarterbacks in certain situations also a excellent play caller besides there offense coach
  
  cheersgifIntelligent Analysis of the NFL Compliments From ~Hårr¥THëHÄT~

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 21, 2021

MikRetSam said:
Right now this number is in limbo, expecting Mahomes to play... this line will go up if/when Mahomes gets confirmed. If you think Mahomes will start and you like the Bills, wait for line to go up.

If Mahomes is ruled out, this line goes to Buff-2.5/3.

I feel 90% Mahomes plays.

The Bills are not the kind of team that can preserve a small lead and take time off the clock with a running game in the closing minutes. The Bills don’t have a running game, and it’s even worse now that Zack Moss is out for the rest of the season.Against the Baltimore Ravens, the Bills gained only 32 yards on the ground on 16 rushing attempts. The Bills haven’t gone over 100 yards rushing in three straight games. This lack of a running threat will put pressure on Allen and take away the effectiveness of any play-action.

Buffalo instead will have to hope that Stefon Diggs plays lights out again. And there’s no reason to doubt that Diggs won’t be effective. He’s so quick and such a pure route-runner that he’s almost impossible to defend one-on-one. Cole Beasley, John Brown and Gabriel Davis will have to do their part to keep defenses honest by taking some of the pass-catching load off Diggs. The good news for Buffalo is that the Bills defense has stepped up lately, and Taron Johnson’s 101-yard pick-six interception certainly will go down as one of the most memorable moments in franchise history.

exploited17 · Jan 21, 2021

I agree with both of those, unfortunately
Would really love to see the Bills get it done

The lines do suggest a dog wins or covers, but I do not see it
Would be shocked if both(assuming Mahomes plays) dogs won

I see the public getting suckered in on both dogs probably
GL

tvegas · Jan 22, 2021

Don't worry about Buffalo's lack of a running game. Buffalo hasn't really effectively run the football all season. Their running game is Josh Allen and you can bet they will call plays using his legs. The Bills D is beat on the ground. If Reid is smart, and he is, you will see them mix in the run more than you think. Problem is...KC's run game is nothing special. Overall, I see no overwhelming advantage for the Chiefs. Buffalo can absolutely win this game and they believe they can.

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 22, 2021

Thank You For Your Constructive Reply~ tvegas~

tvegas said:
Don't worry about Buffalo's lack of a running game. Buffalo hasn't really effectively run the football all season. Their running game is Josh Allen and you can bet they will call plays using his legs. The Bills D is beat on the ground. If Reid is smart, and he is, you will see them mix in the run more than you think. Problem is...KC's run game is nothing special. Overall, I see no overwhelming advantage for the Chiefs. Buffalo can absolutely win this game and they believe they can.

https://www.footballdb.com/standings/index.html?lg=NFL&yr=2020&type=post

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 22, 2021

~Teddy Covers~ Money and Line Moment [ Outstanding Information *****

~Teddy Covers~ Money and Line Moment [ Outstanding Information *****

Buccaneers at Packers Odds

Opening line

Packers -4.5, Over/Under 51
Why the line moved

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Green Bay opened -3.5 and quickly went to -4 Sunday night at William Hill US, then dipped to -3 by Tuesday and returned to the opener Thursday. The Packers are attracting 78 percent of point-spread bets and 83 percent of point-spread money. "We took a couple big bets on the Packers, so we’re pretty high on them right now,” WillHill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said, noting one of those bets was for $40,000 on Packers -3 (-125). "But it’s still so early, you never know what’s going to happen in this game. Tampa’s drawn a lot of love all year long, and people will like taking 3.5 as opposed to 3. I still don’t think it’ll be a big decision one way or the other."

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET THURSDAY: William Hill US goes in-depth on NFL totals each Thursday, and this one dropped from 52 to 51 Sunday night and stayed there. Ticket count is almost dead even, and the Under is landing 71 percent of early cash. Weather could be a concern in Green Bay, but WillHill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich doesn't foresee miserable conditions. "I think it’s just going to be cold there," Bogdanovich said. “Unless there’s wind, people will bet this Over. Both (Tom) Brady and (Aaron) Rodgers play great in the cold. They also do such a great job with the field there in Green Bay. Obviously, both totals are in the 50s and the public would still love to bet both these games Over, so we’ll likely need the Under unless there’s real bad weather at either place."

UPDATE 4:45 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Green Bay opened -4 at DraftKings, dipped to -3.5, peaked at -4.5 and returned to -3.5, all by Monday morning. The Packers are taking 72 percent of point-spread bets and 71 percent of point-spread cash. The initial move on the total was straight from 50.5 to 52 at DraftKings, but it then dialed down to 50.5 a couple of times and is now 51. Ticket count and money are both running about 3/1 on the Over.
---

As the NFC's No. 1 seed, Green Bay is right where it expected to be and surely where it wants to be: at Lambeau Field in late January for the NFC Championship Game, against a team accustomed to playing in much warmer conditions. The Packers advanced with a 32-18 divisional playoff win over the Rams on Saturday night.
Meanwhile, fifth-seeded Tampa Bay traveled to No. 2 seed New Orleans and knocked out the Saints 30-20 Sunday night. So while the warm-weather Buccaneers face the challenge of chilly conditions in Green Bay, quarterback Tom Brady – with his two-decade dynasty in New England – is no stranger to foul weather.

"We opened Packers -4.5, and the money came pouring in immediately on Tampa Bay. Not unlike last week, when we opened the Saints -5.5 and were inundated with Bucs money," Murray said Sunday evening. "This will be a huge-handle game with great write on both sides. Both teams are extremely popular with bettors. Right now, we are down to Packers -4, and the money continues to come in on Tampa Bay."
And the line continued to move, too, dropping to Packers -3.5 less than an hour after going up. The SuperBook certainly wants to see the Bucs vanquished, with Super Bowl liability now looming larger.
"The Bucs are the one team left in the Super Bowl pool that we lose a big number to," Murray said. "We lose on them in the NFC pool, as well. It’s definitely something we will have to keep an eye on this week and potentially three weeks from now, if they are able to beat the Packers."

Covers NFL betting analysis

Conference Championship cheat sheet: injuries, weather and more
Conference Championship best bets and players props
Bills at Chiefs Odds

Opening line

Chiefs -4, Over/Under 56
Why the line moved

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Kansas City bounced between -3.5 and -3 a couple of times Sunday night at William Hill US, and the second trip to -3 was the last, as the the line stuck at Chiefs -3 all week. Even today's news that K.C. quarterback Patrick Mahomes cleared concussion protocol and is set to play didn't jar the line off of 3, as oddsmakers anticipated all week that Mahomes would play. "Right now, straight bets on the point spread are pretty even," William Hill US's Nick Bogdanovich said. "We’re a little high on Bills moneyline, but that’s to be expected. I think this one will be a two-way action game, as well." Although WillHill hasn't moved the line yet, Bogdanovich anticipates a little upward trajectory with Mahomes cleared to play. "It’ll get to 3.5, 4 tops. But I still think there will be Bills money, because the Chiefs haven’t covered a game in so long." Kansas City is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Sticking with William Hill US's totals theme, the AFC title-clash total opened at 51.5 and surged to 55 Sunday night, then receded to 53.5 by Monday night, where the number remains now. The Over is getting 67 percent of tickets, but money is split 50/50 tonight. "All the action in this one will come the last three days, and all will be based on (Patrick) Mahomes’ health," WillHill's Nick Bogdanovich said, alluding to the Chiefs QB's progression through concussion protocols. "There’s weather involved here too, so between weather and health, we’ll figure out the best number. I think it’ll go back up to 55 if Mahomes is in. It just figures to be a high-scoring game. Buffalo’s not running, they’re just throwing every down, too. The people will bet this game Over unless the weather is just so, so bad."

UPDATE 4:45 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: DraftKings pegged the Chiefs slim 1.5-point favorites moments after their victory over Cleveland, then flipped to Bills -1.5, then went back to Chiefs -1, all within 10 minutes Sunday. Within 20 minutes, with the status of Mahomes seemingly positive, DraftKings went to Chiefs -2.5 and later Sunday night briefly got to -3.5. The line then retreated to Chiefs -2.5 and is now -3, with the underdog Bills attracting 63 percent of tickets and 53 percent of money. Similarly, the total moved all over the map, from 51.5 to 50 to 55.5 Sunday night, followed by a dip to 53 by Tuesday morning, and it's now at 54. The total is getting two-way action, with 53 percent of tickets on the Under and 52 percent of money on the Over.
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AFC Championship odds were all over the map Sunday afternoon/evening, as oddsmakers tried to ascertain the status of superstar Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. In Sunday's divisional clash with Cleveland, Mahomes suffered a concussion in the third quarter, but Kansas City hung on behind Chad Henne to claim a 22-17 victory. Buffalo reached the AFC title game with a 17-3 stifling of Baltimore on Saturday night.
With the Chiefs holding a 19-3 halftime lead against the Browns, SuperBook vice president of risk management Jeff Sherman posted AFC Championship Game odds of Chiefs -4/total 56. Then Mahomes got hurt and the AFC title game came off the board, going back up after Kansas City clinched the win over Cleveland. The new numbers: Chiefs -2.5, with a total of 51.
It didn't take long for the line to go up to -3, and the total jumped all the way to 55.5 within about 90 minutes, after postgame indications were that Mahomes was doing well.

"We certainly expect Mahomes to play next Sunday. We moved the line up to -3 after reading some quotes from Andy Reid that sounded positive," Murray said Sunday night. "We had a respected player take Bills +3 (-110) and we moved to Bills +3 (-120). Most of the tickets have been on the Bills so far, although the biggest bet yet was one for $20,000 on Chiefs -3 (even). The public likes both of these teams, even though the Chiefs continue to let the bettors down. They failed to cover yet again today."
The line would look far different for the AFC Championship Game if early indications for Mahomes weren't favorable.
"Mahomes is going to play, but if he had been knocked out completely, the Bills would be a decent favorite next week. More than a field goal," Murray said. "Some of our guys in the room made it Bills -7. I think that’s a little extreme, but it gives you an idea of just how much of a drop-off there is from Mahomes to Henne."

cheersgifIntelligent Analysis of the NFL Compliments From ~Hårr¥THëHÄT~

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 23, 2021

I also bet this teaser 7 point 2 team GB +3 1/2 & Under 59 Points. . I’ll lay the Money line on this matchup -$ 180 rather then lay the -3 1/2 with Green Bay in this one also with my future bets in. The weather forecast real cold maybe some snow but winds mild 2 & 3 miles hr.

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 23, 2021

] My add on 5***** Star Bet

MR.HARRYtheHAT said:
I also bet this teaser 7 point 2 team GB +3 1/2 & Under 59 Points. I’ll lay the Money line on this matchup -$ 180 rather then lay the -3 1/2 with Green Bay in this one also with my future bets in. The weather forecast real cold maybe some snow but winds mild 2 & 3 miles hr.

My add on 5***** Star Bet The over is 7- in the Bucs last eight games following an against the spread win. The over is 25-10 in the Bucs last 35 road games. The over is 8-0 in the Packers last eight games played in January. Green Bay is 8-2 against the spread in their last ten games played in January. I think the Buccaneers are going to struggle to score and that is going to lead to a lower scoring affair. Look for both teams to try and run the ball and the clock will be running. Back the under 52 points to cash In with ease in this game. Keep It Under Your Hat !!! LOL!!! LOL!!!!

MR.HARRYtheHAT · Jan 24, 2021

~My Picks & Bets For The Conference Games~

Updated Bet Futures [William Hill ] Mon, Jan. 4, 7:15 AM ET
Kansas Chiefs Odds To Win AFC Championship -$120
Green Bay Odds To Win NFC Championship +$160
Superbowl Odds to Win Kansas Chiefs +$200
Bets Made During The Weekend
I also bet this teaser 7 point 2 team GB +3 1/2 & Under 59 Points.
I’ll lay the Money line on this matchup -$ 180 rather then lay the -3 1/2 with Green Bay
*****My 5 Star Bet***** >>>>The over is 7- in the Bucs last eight games following an against the spread win. The over is 25-10 in the Bucs last 35 road games. The over is 8-0 in the Packers last eight games played in January. Green Bay is 8-2 against the spread in their last ten games played in January. I think the Buccaneers are going to struggle to score and that is going to lead to a lower scoring affair. Look for both teams to try and run the ball and the clock will be running. Back the under 52 points to cash In
cheersgifBest Of Luck To All You On Conference Games ~Hårr¥THëHÄT~