****************NFL Playoffs Misleading Wins **************

Just a point of perception from here.


Packers played against a Rams team that had the best defense yet GB rolled up 32 points. The Rams were beat on first downs which is how GB won the game. They never gave up the ball. Time of Possession was 36 minutes for the Packers with 28 first downs. LA had only 17 first downs. Play calling was horrendous for LA which contributed to the loss for the Rams. Rams HC made some ridiculous calls.

Bills were masterful on defense. In Fact - if Cleveland would have played defensive formations like Buffalo, the Browns would have been traveling to buffalo this week. The Bills didnt care about Jackson passing the ball. They had 8 men in the box for 90 percent of the plays during the game. That alone, is how Buffalo won this game. On offense the Bills also scaled back the passing routes to make the plays less risky. Allen was 23-37 with all short pass completions. He had only 2 completions for 20 yards. . While watching I noticed that all they kept playing for was field position. Remove the 101 yard interception return and the Bills might have lost.

Cleveland lost to KC simply because they never blitzed. 6 different times the Chiefs were 2nd and 10 or more and converted every time for a 1st down - 2 times on 3rd and 20 or more! In the first half the Chiefs never punted and they had 11 first downs on the first 22 plays! That probably never happened in any other game all year by any team. Even late in the game when Mahomes went out they never blitzed on 3rd and 13 and 3rd an 11 against Henne. The worst rule in the NFL is when a player fumbles through the end zone you get nothing for your drive and just give the ball back to the other team that didnt earn it? LOL. Talk about stupid rules. Do they think this is the NBA? KC did what the Bills did. They kept 8 men in the box for most of the game which totally shut down the run game to the left when the Starting Left guard went down on the first play of the game. KC was always ready on the right side after that and it was evident all day. Play calling and linebackers off the ball by more than 5 yards all day on defense for Cleveland is what lost the game. Even on short 3 downs plays for KC if they needed 3 or 4 yards, the Browns DB;s were always 7 yards away at the snap. Result...1st down KC every time.

Tampa's win was not anywhere near they way the game came out. It actually was Brees being exposed for now we know - had a bad arm because he couldn't throw the ball more than 20 yards accurately or hard enough. 3 int's were all that changed the game in Tampa's favor.

This week the games should be interesting.

Not digging too deep but do you feel like Packers pretty much could name their score vs Rams. Watching it sure seemed like total domination all phases. Yes Rams made it interesting but Packers toyed with Rams and their vaunted D. I said in other threads, D does not win championships anymore. It’s Offense and an adequate D. Right now, I don’t think Brady can beat Packers. Their O is nothing special and Brady misses too many key passes where Rodgers Rarely misses. Brady easily had 5 passes or more that in the past seemed like he never missed. And he had PERFECT conditions in Superdome. Can anyone expect that Sunday at Lambeau? I do not.

Agree with you on Bills. A little lucky but better coaching and game plan. However, now their D will be stressed. Let’s assume Mahomes at full strength and plays entire game. Given what we’ve seen and know, KC wins IMO and covers and even maybe by DD. Bills will not be able to game plan KCs weapons. Caveat always gonna be Mahomes injured then most likely its game over for KC since I do not see Henne being a Nick Foles type. Reid has shown now how masterful he and staff are at attacking league Ds and should/could have Watkins and Helaire both back giving them more options. RB Williams was almost 8 yd/carry and Kelce & Hill were just beasts. Watkins could add wrinkle. If anyone revisits week 6 KC @Bills, it was a complete beat down. KCs Helaire went crazy, Mahomes super efficient and a complete shut down of Bills. Score not indicative of KC dominance. Most will argue that was week 6, plenty has changed and Buff a whole lot better. Very true. Enough to beat a veteran KC team in its 3rd in row AFC Champ game, I say no. KC like Packers cover and pull away handily. There’s always a COVID issue or unexpected injury pre or during game that could certainly affect but these teams at this point are all next man up w/o much of a hiccup. We saw Browns on 3rd LG push thru without much stress to OL or Baker.

Looking forward to hearing others thoughts, agreements and disagreements or reasons why Bucs and Bills could pull off huge upsets...since I believe those teams winning would be. Lines don’t say that but sometimes that’s just how Vegas plays. Can Bucs D show up and contain Packers, not a stretch at all given earlier season mtg, but too many factors IMO have changed for Packers and Brady like Brees is showing his age.

Interesting how these 2 matchups were both played in Week 6. And here we are same teams to see who goes to SB.

Again, hope many chime in G-Man. Thx for getting it going. Appreciate your candid thoughts and opinions.

Hoping for SB 1 teams myself. Seems like the most exciting 2 teams and a potentially crazy exciting game.

IMO there are only a few dominant DL's in the NFL, Aaron Donald is one, and he was not a factor with his injury, that was HUGE, that was the game... from a wagering perspective I often look at dominant DLs OUT as something handicappers miss, it is incredibly important (see: Hicks of the Bears, when he is out, how badly they do ATS). So GB looked good and I had them thinking Rodgers is playing as well as ever and Donald would be hurting, and GB also had a good spot with the Rams and Goff (who is underrated) having a bad thumb and it being a cold weather game.

Buffalo was fortunate, going against a middle school level one dimensional Ravens offense, Jackson runs a basic option offense and talented defenses can adjust with 8-9 in the box, and the wind helped Buffalo, too, Allen being a savy cold weather / high wind passing QB and Jackson, not. Buffalo will have problems beating KC without a running game, that worked against the Ravens but I cannot see them prevailing this time, though of course, I might take them +6 if Mahomes starts because IMO Mahomes, might be hindered by his toe and / or his concussion's lingering effects, but play anyway.

Very talented and healthy overall Cleveland took over most of the second part of the game, but also had a huge DL problem with superstar Garrett not being able to contribute, it mattered a LOT, but they are very well rounded and still covered, could have won, that fumble into the end zone rule (which will be changed this off season) with, to boot, a helmet to helmet hit that was not called was critical... thought of course Mahomes being out 4th quarter hurt KC, we will never know...

Agree, Brees lost the game, he is either dinged (shoulder or something?) or old age has finally set in, he should retire if so. Brady and TB looked OK, their running game was ok and they stopped the run, too, fairly well but I cannot see them winning in cold and windy GB even with cold weather game experienced Brady at the helm.

vinny vegas said:

Not digging too deep but do you feel like Packers pretty much could name their score vs Rams. Watching it sure seemed like total domination all phases.
I think that the game should have covered for LA. The Pack only had one qtr with multiople scores. Rams coach was not connected with the flow of the game. He made some ridiculous offensive calls to kill drives.

Yes Rams made it interesting but Packers toyed with Rams and their vaunted D. I said in other threads, D does not win championships anymore. It’s Offense and an adequate D. Right now, I don’t think Brady can beat Packers. Their O is nothing special and Brady misses too many key passes where Rodgers Rarely misses. Brady easily had 5 passes or more that in the past seemed like he never missed. And he had PERFECT conditions in Superdome. Can anyone expect that Sunday at Lambeau? I do not.
Brady is the all time best QB in cold weather. As far as the Tampa run game, its still competitive enough right now. Of the four(4) teams remaining this week, they are nearly dead even on offense. Buffalo and KC and Tampa are all the same of defense and offense. GB is the worst of the 4 on defense. Tampa had the best run game defense with an astonishing 3.7 yards per rush allowed. GB is the worst at 4.6 allowed. Brady can control the clock as well as anyone. The Packers may become predictable if the Tampa defense can shut down the leading GB run game. Packers were beat by Tampa solely because Tampa blitzed. Rodgers was sacked 4 times and picked twice. Once - for a pick 6. They also held the Pack run game to only 94 yards. Same game plan should be on the table for Tampa this week. Note: Bucs were 2 point dogs at home in week 6 and now are only a 3 pt dog in GB.?

Agree with you on Bills. A little lucky but better coaching and game plan. However, now their D will be stressed. Let’s assume Mahomes at full strength and plays entire game. Cleveland won the game just not on the scoreboard. KC is playing against a team that no one has stopped since the KC game. The Chiefs are not the dominating team they once were IMO. Just last week I wrote how they have NOT won a game by more than 6 points now in the last 9 games. The Buffalo offense is better than the Browns were. This one is decidee by turnovers and if the Bills play defense with 8 men in the box like they did to Baltimore, then they go to the SB.
Given what we’ve seen and know, KC wins IMO and covers and even maybe by DD. Bills will not be able to game plan KCs weapons. Caveat always gonna be Mahomes injured then most likely its game over for KC since I do not see Henne being a Nick Foles type. Reid has shown now how masterful he and staff are at attacking league Ds and should/could have Watkins and Helaire both back giving them more options. RB Williams was almost 8 yd/carry and Kelce & Hill were just beasts. Watkins could add wrinkle. If anyone revisits week 6 KC @Bills, it was a complete beat down. KCs Helaire went crazy, Mahomes super efficient and a complete shut down of Bills. Score not indicative of KC dominance.
Bills never stopped the run as KC ran for 245 yards. That is what they will focus on for this game. The 8 man Box must be used if the Bills are to win. Cleveland would have won the game if they used the 8 man box which they never did. Coaching for Cleveland lost the game.

Most will argue that was week 6, plenty has changed and Buff a whole lot better. Very true. Enough to beat a veteran KC team in its 3rd in row AFC Champ game, I say no. KC like Packers cover and pull away handily. There’s always a COVID issue or unexpected injury pre or during game that could certainly affect but these teams at this point are all next man up w/o much of a hiccup. We saw Browns on 3rd LG push thru without much stress to OL or Baker.

Looking forward to hearing others thoughts, agreements and disagreements or reasons why Bucs and Bills could pull off huge upsets...since I believe those teams winning would be. Lines don’t say that but sometimes that’s just how Vegas plays. Can Bucs D show up and contain Packers, not a stretch at all given earlier season mtg, but too many factors IMO have changed for Packers and Brady like Brees is showing his age.

Interesting how these 2 matchups were both played in Week 6. And here we are same teams to see who goes to SB.

Again, hope many chime in G-Man. Thx for getting it going. Appreciate your candid thoughts and opinions.

Hoping for SB 1 teams myself. Seems like the most exciting 2 teams and a potentially crazy exciting game.

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Responses in Blue above.
Public was most heavy last week on Cleveland who covered and almost won. 62%. This week its at that level for Buffalo.(62% as well.

Serbone said:

IMO there are only a few dominant DL's in the NFL, Aaron Donald is one, and he was not a factor with his injury, that was HUGE, that was the game... from a wagering perspective I often look at dominant DLs OUT as something handicappers miss, it is incredibly important (see: Hicks of the Bears, when he is out, how badly they do ATS). So GB looked good and I had them thinking Rodgers is playing as well as ever and Donald would be hurting, and GB also had a good spot with the Rams and Goff (who is underrated) having a bad thumb and it being a cold weather game. Close games are always decided by players out or unable to make a difference. Packers only had one qtr with more than one score. The lack of the pass rush was likely why Rams couldn't cover. Bad Coaching calls also contributed to the loss.

Buffalo was fortunate, going against a middle school level one dimensional Ravens offense, Jackson runs a basic option offense and talented defenses can adjust with 8-9 in the box, and the wind helped Buffalo, too, Allen being a savy cold weather / high wind passing QB and Jackson, not.
When the defense puts 8 in the Box it forces the offense to pass with priedictbale coverages. We agree.

Buffalo will have problems beating KC without a running game, that worked against the Ravens but I cannot see them prevailing this time, though of course, I might take them +6 if Mahomes starts because IMO Mahomes, might be hindered by his toe and / or his concussion's lingering effects, but play anyway. The Bills dont run the ball much so its not going to be affected by the KC defense. Thats when Allen runs when the defense is off the line nd playing the pass. They have mastered it and its hard to sop because he is highly accurate passing when on the run.

Very talented and healthy overall Cleveland took over most of the second part of the game, but also had a huge DL problem with superstar Garrett not being able to contribute, it mattered a LOT, but they are very well rounded and still covered, could have won, that fumble into the end zone rule (which will be changed this off season) with, to boot, a helmet to helmet hit that was not called was critical... thought of course Mahomes being out 4th quarter hurt KC, we will never know.
Garret was not at full capacity, but Cleveland lost because they wouldn't bring up the linebackers or a safety to blitz. If they dont see that them they wont win playoff games. Thats what they did in Pittsburgh that created the 3 int's against Ben. Why they abandoned that in KC is beyond me???

Agree, Brees lost the game, he is either dinged (shoulder or something?) or old age has finally set in, he should retire if so. Brady and TB looked OK, their running game was ok and they stopped the run, too, fairly well but I cannot see them winning in cold and windy GB even with cold weather game experienced Brady at the helm.

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Responses in blue.
Appreciate the feedback as always guys.

G-Man! said:

Responses in Blue above.
Public was most heavy last week on Cleveland who covered and almost won. 62%. This week its at that level for Buffalo.(62% as well.

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Not sure where you got your numbers. Not what I saw. Public was pretty even but a bit more on KC
But regardless a bit more deceiving as if we look at this game we dont really know who the right side was.
Who knows what happens if Mahomes isn't injured
But that being said the way the game played out was what KC did all 2nd half of the season
So, that game is no indication either way no matter what the public was on because we don't know what the right side necessarily was

IMO KC played better than the outcome and Buffalo didn't play as well as a 14 point victory suggests
Though definitely the right side of the bet

Considering Mahomes questionable status. Even if he plays people will assume he isn't 100%
IMO that is always a disaster. Meaning KC wil likely cover unless Mahomes is truly playing in real bad shape(which I doubt)
If you see him hopping around and grimacing then you will know

exploited17 said:

Not sure where you got your numbers. Not what I saw. Public was pretty even but a bit more on KC
But regardless a bit more deceiving as if we look at this game we dont really know who the right side was.
Who knows what happens if Mahomes isn't injured
But that being said the way the game played out was what KC did all 2nd half of the season, If Cleveland plays 8 in the box they win.. thats what Buffalo must do this week at KC.
So, that game is no indication either way no matter what the public was on because we don't know what the right side necessarily was

IMO KC played better than the outcome and Buffalo didn't play as well as a 14 point victory suggests
Though definitely the right side of the bet.
Correct on the Bills. they has a 101 pick return for TD.

Considering Mahomes questionable status. Even if he plays people will assume he isn't 100%
IMO that is always a disaster. Meaning KC wil likely cover unless Mahomes is truly playing in real bad shape(which I doubt)
If you see him hopping around and grimacing then you will know

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GO here to page 1 and updated again on pg 2. for betting percentages.
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1174588&page=2

Doesn't show your sources
This was from 2pm
15 minutes after you posted final lines suggesting Browns were 64%
Also a couple others I looked at said about the same

I HOPE Bills throw 8 in the box...are u kidding me? That is not the recipe to beat KC, sorry, disagree. If you are going to give Mahomes and rest of targets freedom to run routes all over field w/ 3 DBs, it will remind you of KC vs TENN last year and see how that turns out...Bills backers have to hope like hell that Mahomes toe &/or head are issues and he is not 100%. I'm going with he's gonna go and will be 100%. And it is a chess match cuz KC just as easily can go with same game plan that throttled Bills easily or expect Bills to change their D scheme due to success week 6 and counter Bills with an O scheme change or adjustment off their adjustment...I'll take Andy Reid and staff as a more seasoned group of coaches (SEE 3 year HISTORY) to better plan and execute and adjust...than a Bills team w/ an experience QB and team and staff.

vinny vegas said:

I HOPE Bills throw 8 in the box...are u kidding me? That is not the recipe to beat KC, sorry, disagree. If you are going to give Mahomes and rest of targets freedom to run routes all over field w/ 3 DBs, it will remind you of KC vs TENN last year and see how that turns out...Bills backers have to hope like hell that Mahomes toe &/or head are issues and he is not 100%. I'm going with he's gonna go and will be 100%. And it is a chess match cuz KC just as easily can go with same game plan that throttled Bills easily or expect Bills to change their D scheme due to success week 6 and counter Bills with an O scheme change or adjustment off their adjustment...I'll take Andy Reid and staff as a more seasoned group of coaches (SEE 3 year HISTORY) to better plan and execute and adjust...than a Bills team w/ an experience QB and team and staff.

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I wish we could sit side by side and watch the Browns game play-by-play live. I could show you all the plays where Cleveland could have won on 2nd and 3rd downs. They didnt need to put 8 in on every play. But there were at least 20 plays that they should have had everyone on the line instead of 7 or more yards away from the line. Kelce was not the difference. It was the distance away from the line that they took advantage of Cleveland. Game film shows it all. Rookie Coach played too safe. You hold the Chiefs to 22 at home, you did too much wrong to win. In fact, the Bills will show that on Sunday. You play on the line with enough players you take away time to throw and stop the run at the same time. Again, Cleveland wins if they dont fumble through the end zone and if they blitz when appropriate. KC lost to Raiders because they blitzed and sacked Mahomes 3 times with one int. They also stopped the run because of it. Yards mean nothing. only scores count. That would have done the same thing for Cleveland and they would be on the way to Buffalo.

exploited17 said:

Doesn't show your sources
This was from 2pm
15 minutes after you posted final lines suggesting Browns were 64%
Also a couple others I looked at said about the same

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Check youre PM.

G-Man! said:

I wish we could sit side by side and watch the Browns game play-by-play live. I could show you all the plays where Cleveland could have won on 2nd and 3rd downs. They didnt need to put 8 in on every play. But there were at least 20 plays that they should have had everyone on the line instead of 7 or more yards away from the line. Kelce was not the difference. It was the distance away from the line that they took advantage of Cleveland. Game film shows it all. Rookie Coach played too safe. You hold the Chiefs to 22 at home, you did too much wrong to win. In fact, the Bills will show that on Sunday. You play on the line with enough players you take away time to throw and stop the run at the same time. Again, Cleveland wins if they dont fumble through the end zone and if they blitz when appropriate. KC lost to Raiders because they blitzed and sacked Mahomes 3 times with one int. They also stopped the run because of it. Yards mean nothing. only scores count. That would have done the same thing for Cleveland and they would be on the way to Buffalo.

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Wish we could too...yet all your should haves with Browns and fact Henne was driving the bus and KC still wins and yes cover by Browns but give me full game with Mahomes and KC covers IMO. You bring up 1 loss to Raiders yet you discount or avoid wins vs Raiders 2nd time, vs Ravens, @Bills, @Bucs, @Saints-sacked 4x...KC lost ONCE this year haha, yes I’m not counting the Chargers. And as I’ve said, every game this year has been their opponents Super Bowl, and still 15-1 (discount chargers)...

KC and Reid’s Gang have done 1 thing better than all this year...WIN. Covering spreads never that important to them. Just win.

I will take KC and Packers MoneyLine. Forget points and don’t deal with how many points but just a win. Juice won’t matter when they win.

Summary of "Misleading Wins" ATS:

• GB -7 won but Aaron Donald was ineffective instead of his usual massive impact, Kupp was out, and Goff was playing in cold weather with a thumb with several pins from surgery a few weeks ago

• Bills -3 won 17-3 but there was a 10-14 point turnaround, the >100 pick six

• KC -9 won by 5 but all pro MVP QB Mahomes missed the 4th quarter

• TB +3 won but Hill and Murray were out, and Brees either had a dinged arm/shoulder or is washed up

Cases can be made in some instances for the other teams (like the helmet to helmet /goal line fumble into the end zone by Browns) I get it, Bania, but this is the essence of how the ATS winners were fortunate.

Serbone said:

Summary of "Misleading Wins" ATS:

• GB -7 won but Aaron Donald was ineffective instead of his usual massive impact, Kupp was out, and Goff was playing in cold weather with a thumb with several pins from surgery a few weeks ago

• Bills -3 won 17-3 but there was a 10-14 point turnaround, the >100 pick six

• KC -9 won by 5 but all pro MVP QB Mahomes missed the 4th quarter

• TB +3 won but Hill and Murray were out, and Brees either had a dinged arm/shoulder or is washed up

Cases can be made in some instances for the other teams (like the helmet to helmet /goal line fumble into the end zone by Browns) I get it, Bania, but this is the essence of how the ATS winners were fortunate.

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Can't really count the Saints
Brees isn't the same as he was a few years ago....but that isn't bad luck, Can't count that as part of misleading as he largely got them to where they were regardless.
Kind of like saying TB really is the best team Brady just isn't 30

G-Man! said:

Check youre PM.

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?

exploited17 said:

?

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InBox is empty?

G-Man! said:

InBox is empty?

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I got no pm. Plenty of room
Just post it here

exploited17 said:

I got no pm. Plenty of room
Just post it here

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Cant say here. Not allowed. a canadian site...

I think taking too much stock from the previous chiefs vs bills matchup is a mistake... It was an all time bad situation for the bills. They played, and won, a highly emotional game vs the rams week 3. The flew out to vegas to beat the raiders in their second ever home game in Vegas in week 4. On Monday night of week 5 they were still unsure of who they were going to play because the Titans had covid issues, who they ended up getting destroyed by on Tuesday night. Then they flew back home on short rest to play the chiefs in a Monday afternoon game. Not to mention the chiefs were fired up coming off the first (and only, really) loss to the raiders.

Not saying the first match up doesn’t mean anything, just saying it was a horrific spot for Buffalo.