~Don't sleep on this Chiefs defense~

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FUTURES FROM WILLIAM HILL SPORTS BOOK NV
Updated Mon, Jan. 4, 7:15 AM ET
ODDS TO WIN AFC CHAMPIONSHIP (1/24/21)

AmericanFractional
***** Kansas City Chiefs [win]-1205/6
Buffalo Bills [Lost ]+3507/2

021 SUPER BOWL ODDS TO WIN

  • ******Chiefs: +200 {My Bet Is In On This Game** [In Action]



Don't sleep on this Chiefs defense.........
It's held opponents to 20 or fewer points 10 times this season and gave up 22.6 points per game in the regular season, tied for 10th in the NFL. Mahomes and the offense are scary, but you don't go 16-2 without a capable defense.The skill-position firepower in this game will be a wash. But generally, the better quarterback is the difference in these games. Brady may be a legend[ old man], but at this particular moment in time, Mahomes the kid is the better player. Hey !! HarryTheHat Don't Call Me a Kid//LOL!!!/LOL!!!.... And that makes the Chiefs the smarter pick. Tyreek Hill,Travis Kelce and Kansas City's cadre of speedy playmakers stretch defenses both vertically and horizontally, and the play-calling and play design of Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy—including some of the best screen-pass designs in football—constantly put defenses under pressure.


 
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TEDDY COVER'S [ John Murray provides Super Bowl 55 opening lines & early line movement, sharp money and public betting.]

The strength of the Tampa Bay defense is in their front seven. They’ve excelled in stopping the run and have three linebackers who are playing at an elite level. As a result, they created the third-most quarterback pressures in the 2021 NFL regular season. However, they’ll need to be better in the secondary if they’re to succeed on Super Bowl Sunday. Tyreek Hill torched them in Week 12, and the diminutive wide receiver looks in unstoppable form. Although the Chiefs defense hasn’t had the same acclaim as Tampa Bay’s unit, they’ve improved vastly since last year. They had the sixth-most interceptions last year and have had standout performances from Tyrann Mathieu and rookie L’Jarius Sneed. Mathieu intercepted Brady when the two teams met in Week 12. When teams put pressure on Brady, he is prone to mistakes.
The Chiefs ranked ninth in blitz percentage and 11th in quarterback pressures in the regular season. If they can bring that pressure consistently, then the Chiefs will have the upper hand. Then, the torch may truly be passed from Brady to Mahomes. Unlike the Buccaneers’ rollercoaster season, the path to the Super Bowl has never felt in doubt for the Chiefs. Even when they’ve struggled to dominate games, they’ve found a way to win. With Mahomes under center, they can never be ruled out of a game. One of their two defeats in the regular season came while he was rested.

TEDDY COVER'S


NFL season constantly clouded by COVID, we're down to two teams, with Super Bowl odds on the board and getting immediate attention. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers toppled Green Bay in Sunday's NFC Championship Game, while the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs had little trouble with Buffalo in the AFC Championship Game.
TheSuperBook's John Murray provided insights on Super Bowl 55 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Teddy Cover's will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the next two weeks.

Super Bowl 55 Betting Line
Tampa Bay won three straight road playoff games to reach the Superbowl, capped by Sunday's 31-26 victory over Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game. Kansas City booked a return trip to the Big Game by dispatching Buffalo 38-24 in the AFC Championship Game.
Sunday night brought some quick action on the Super Bowl point spread, total and moneyline, with all three seeing some movement.

Point Spread

TeamSpread (as of January 25)Opening Spread
Kansas City Chiefs-3 (-120)-3.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+3 (Even)+3.5 (-110)

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY: BetMGM's New Jersey hub has already seen some big plays on the favorite, with a $115,000 bet on Chiefs -3.5 (-115) and a $110,000 Chiefs -3.5 (-110) wager. The line opened K.C. -3.5, spent some time at -3 and is now -3.5 (-105). Early ticket count is running 3/1 and early money 4/1 on Kansas City.

More Point Spread analysis

Over/Under Total

Current Over/Under (as of January 25)Opening Over/Under
Over 56.5 (-110)Over 57 (-110)
Under 56.5 (-110)Under 57 (-110)

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY: The total is down a point to 56.5 atBetMGM's New Jersey hub, even though 79 percent of early bets and 82 percent of early dollars are on the Over.

More Over/Under analysis

Moneyline

TeamMoneyline (as of January 25)Opening Moneyline
Kansas City Chiefs-170-180
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+150+160

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY:BetMGM'stook a $180,000 bet on Chiefs moneyline -180, which would win $100,000. That said, Kansas City is actually down a tick on the moneyline, to -175, with Tampa Bay +145. The book loses on the overall Super Bowl futures market regardless of who wins the Big Game, as both the Chiefs and Buccaneers have drawn a lot of tickets and cash. However, BetMGM's would much rather see the Chiefs win, as the Bucs represent twice as much Super Bowl futures liability.

More Moneyline analysis
Early Line Movement

Those looking for an inside edge when betting the Super Bowl might want to follow the early line moves. Sharp professional players are most often the first ones to bet the Big Game odds the second they hit the board, and they’ve been right more often than they’ve been wrong in recent years.
Over the last 13 Super Bowls, the early money has been on the right side on 10 occasions (with one game resulting in a push).
 
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Although the point spread cover against Buffalo was the Chiefs’ first in their last 10 games, their ATS woes haven’t been any fault of the defense. Excluding a 38-21 loss to the Chargers in Week 17 in which KC sat many of its starters, the Chiefs have held seven straight opponents under 30 points and have allowed an average of 18.3 points per game in their last three. It’s not easy going against Brady in a big game, but I can’t resist this short price with a Chiefs team that has lost just twice in its last 27 games. All but one of KC’s last 56 victories have come by a field goal or more.
 

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Although the point spread cover against Buffalo was the Chiefs’ first in their last 10 games, their ATS woes haven’t been any fault of the defense. Excluding a 38-21 loss to the Chargers in Week 17 in which KC sat many of its starters, the Chiefs have held seven straight opponents under 30 points and have allowed an average of 18.3 points per game in their last three. It’s not easy going against Brady in a big game, but I can’t resist this short price with a Chiefs team that has lost just twice in its last 27 games. All but one of KC’s last 56 victories have come by a field goal or more.

Thx and with you. Just win!
 

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Tampa defense is better than KC IMO> Brady wins it all again...

KC Super Bowl opponent wasn't anywhere as good last year as this one is with Brady.
Take the DOG!

KC needed 21 points in the Fourth to win. The game was close all the way through the first 3 quarters. Keep that In Mind for this game,
 
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The Oddsmakers opened Kansas City as a three-point favorite to win Super Bowl titles even with Tampa Bay playing at home

The Oddsmakers opened Kansas City as a three-point favorite to win back-to-back Super Bowl titles even with Tampa Bay playing at home. The opening betting line for the total was set at 56.5 points. The two week timeframe between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl gives bettors plenty of time to place their actual bets.
However, the early money coming into the online books have already pushed that spread to 3.5 points. The extra half point makes Tampa Bay a bit more attractive if you are expecting a tight game. The total line dipped a bit at certain online books to 56 points. With Patrick Mahomes at quarterback for the Chiefs and Tom Brady under center for Tampa Bay, most bettors are expecting a shootout that should result in a very active scoreboard. A third option for betting on this Super Bowl matchup is the money line for the straight-up winner. Kansas City opened at -170 with Tampa Bay set as a +145 underdog. Since then, you will find the Chiefs as high as -175 at a few online books. The Buccaneers have jumped to +155.
As a general betting strategy, you might want to wait on a money line bet for the Chiefs to see if that number goes down a bit. Getting Tampa Bay at +155 might be as high as it gets, so pulling the trigger now makes some betting sense. Looking at the recent past may provide some valuable insight into predicting future outcomes. Yet, betting trends tend to be a bit overrated in the general handicapping process. None the less, there are a few interesting ones surrounding this game. With an overall straight-up record of 16-2 this season, the Chiefs have now won 25 of their last 27 games SU. They have a SU 10-game winning streak on the road.
However, Kansas City is a costly 1-8-1 against the spread in its last 10 games overall. Tampa Bay is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 home games closing as an underdog. It has won its last seven games SU. The total has stayed under in four of the Bucs’ last six home games. While these two teams do not face one another all that much, Tampa Bay has a 7-2 edge ATS in the last nine meetings overall. It is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games against Kansas City.
 
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I post a lot of information from different sources. So everyone looks at my threads can see besides my picks & bets ,so you can judge matchup for yourselves. In my view you just can't,get enough info, and I reach out to everyone old school handcapiers, analysts and so on. I also research Pros & Cons from different aspects of match-ups and post them. Members looking at my threads make there own options. Best Of Luck in the Superbowl!!!!! Lets Just Win !!!!cheersgif
 

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I post a lot of information from different sources. So everyone looks at my threads can see besides my picks & bets ,so you can judge matchup for yourselves. In my view you just can't,get enough info, and I reach out to everyone old school handcapiers, analysts and so on. I also research Pros & Cons from different aspects of match-ups and post them. Members looking at my threads make there own options. Best Of Luck in the Superbowl!!!!! Lets Just Win !!!!cheersgif

perfectly said...

gl

GAME.
 
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The Kansas City Chiefs [ Some Bets To Consider or Maybe Not ? !!! ] [BetMGM]

The Kansas City Chiefs press coverage left Josh Allen with nowhere to throw all night, and the Bills only found an inch of success when Allen began to scramble in the second half. This is not something a forty-three year-old Tom Brady can do if his receivers also struggle to find space. The Tampa Bay front line is also back to full strength after the surprise reactivation of Vita Vea from injured reserve. The loss of him in week five lead to the Bucs run defense slipping, but with him back they held the Packers to just 67 net rushing yards. These two sides have great offenses, but it’s their defenses which will keep this game a tight affair, although it seems the bookies are slowly increasing the price of the game being under 55.5, which, given recent injury news, is hard to argue with.-105 Under 55.5 total points

However recently, odds of the game being under 55.5 points have risen from -110 to -105, something that may be down to recent injury news from both sides. Chiefs are expecting to have wide-receiver Sammy Watkins and running back Le'Veon Ball back from injury, after both missed their side's win against the Buffalo Bills last week. Both Watkins and Ball have played important roles in their side's offense this year, and their returns from injury ahead of next Sunday's match will come as a big boost to the Chiefs. As well as this, Tampa Bay Safety Jordan Whitehead looks like he could miss the game with a shoulder injury after he failed to take part in training on Thursday. The 23-year-old underwent an MRI scan recently to determine whether he'll be able to take part, although at this point, that looks unlikely.

The Chiefs are favorites for this game. They beat the Bucs 27-24 in week twelve, and if anything have only improved from there. Taking the Chiefs on the moneyline is the safest bet, however the offers were poor to start with, and have only gotten worse, with the Chiefs now down to -175 from -163. This combination bet, though, asks each team to score 20+ points along with a Chiefs victory and boosts the value to +135. These odds have decreased in recent days from +150 to +135, something that seems to be down to the Chiefs getting two of their most effective offensive line players in Watkins and Ball back from injury. +200 Chiefs to win, under 56.5 total points ?
While this game may not be a high scoring affair, each team is more than capable of eclipsing twenty points each. The Bucs only scored beneath that total twice this season, and the Chiefs once. Both teams have a more than capable offense, and with these injury boosts for the Chiefs, it'll only increase their chances of success even further. Despite the odds shortening recently, this bet is still an excellent way to extract the maximum value for backing the early favorites with only a low risk modifier. +135 Chiefs to win, both teams score 20 or more ?

Money Mahomes

The Super Bowl MVP award has been given to the winning side’s quarterback in seven of the last ten years. Unless another position has an outstanding moment of game changing brilliance, the winning quarterback being named MVP is a given. With the Chiefs big favorites on the moneyline, this makes Mahomes the big favorite for MVP, with his odds even shortening recently from +120 to just +100, something that suggests the bookies are clearly siding with him over the likes of Tom Brady. Both Watkins and Ball are now back from injury, something that gives the Chiefs' chances of winning, as well as Mahomes' chances of being named MVP, a big boost. Better players in the offensive line means the chances of Mahomes averaging high numbers in successful passes, passing yards and touchdowns increases, elements that will only boost his chances of winning the MVP award. While the risk does exist of one of Mahomes’ receivers stealing the spotlight, especially with Watkins now back from injury, or the Bucs upsetting and winning the game, this is still a rare chance to back the market favorite with odds of evens.+100 Mahomes named Super Bowl MVP ?







 

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Good stuff Harry :toast:

and reading about Chiefs D with TB's 3 int last week I'll wager against[ old man], and take youth

All but one of KC’s last 56 victories have come by a field goal or more.

31-21
cheersgif
 
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Good stuff Harry :toast:

and reading about Chiefs D with TB's 3 int last week I'll wager against[ old man], and take youth

All but one of KC’s last 56 victories have come by a field goal or more.

31-21
cheersgif
Thank You For Your Reply and support skoda... Lets Just Win !!!!
 
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Andy Reid Coach that inspired impressive talents to his players

Reid has long had a flair for pushing the creative envelope and for mining deep into archival footage for strategically twists, too. During Super Bowl 54, the Chiefs converted a 4th-and-1 from the 49ers’ 5-yard line on a play that was fashioned after one Michigan used against USC in the 1948 Rose Bowl. Talk about a deep dive for research.In the Chiefs’ version of the play, they lined up in a full-house backfield (as Michigan did), used a spinning motion for multiple players, including the one who shifted to an H-back spot, then had Damien Williams take a direct shotgun snap. It worked. Williams bolted to the 1-yard line, setting up Kansas City’s first touchdown. Mahomes, the reigning Super Bowl MVP, described the process to local reporters earlier this season. The quarterback’s creative wrinkles are often inspired while watching film of opposing defenses, he said, sensing opportunity in specific situations or against certain coverages. It comes as no surprise that Mahomes said when he comes up with an idea, it usually finds its way into the playbook. Reid’s no fool. Imagine the vibe that comes with added layers of engagement for one of the NFL’s most impressive talents.
 
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In my view you just can't,get enough info, and I reach out to everyone old school handcapiers, analysts and so on. I also research Pros & Cons from different aspects of match-ups and post them. Members looking at my threads make there own options. Best Of Luck in the Superbowl!!!!! Lets Just Win !!!
 
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How much is home-field worth to Tampa Bay towards the spread?

How much is home-field worth to Tampa Bay towards the spread? HarryTheHat: I would say a half point, at most, but probably nothing. There really won't be enough fans there to make a difference. The only thing I can really point to would be the field surface that Tampa is more used to playing on, but to me that isn't enough to make a difference on the number.
 

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Old school... Okay how about Toma who was with the Chiefs many many years head groundskeeper dressing up the field for this year's super bowl? Home Field advantage KC
Good luck and see you at the window...
 

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Old school... Okay how about Toma who was with the Chiefs many many years head groundskeeper dressing up the field for this year's super bowl? Home Field advantage KC
Good luck and see you at the window...
Nice to pay homage but a groundskeeper does nothing to give advantage to one team vs the other at all. A Tibetan monk as the groundskeeper would have the same effect.
 

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Good stuff about the KC defense, their D is better than the media narrative, they harassed Allen, took him completely out of his game, and covered the receivers well. If they harass Brady like they did Allen, game over, KC romp.

I think a lot of the regular season, to boot, the Chiefs were playing hard but not always all-out-100%-tackle-head-first-give-up-your-body-for-the-team, they knew they would make the playoffs clinched and coasted thru a lot of games and barely covered ATS laying a lot of points. They did not cover vs the very talented healthy Browns and Mahomes was out 4th quarter, sure.
 

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