Superbowl 55

there is nothing better than the ride, winning or losing cash on the game fades 10 mins after the gun but calling the game upfront feels good forever.

i've spent decades building different systems(#'s, fast start, 20pt, total opposite, etc) that work beyond the scope of coincidence.
everything based on "any given sunday", "every player is a paid professional athlete", all in the top 1% of the sport nationally and just as good as everyone else.
this is where it gets tough...what happens when my stuff conflicts with the selections that the stats and history suggest?
we're going to find out.

(14-2) kansas city(3.5) 56.5 vs (11-5) tampa bay...

we've went over the "fast start" system where the teams get qualified by matching as many of the 6 specific indicators within the first 4 weeks of the regular season.
the superbowl has been won 12 of the last 15 straight if they matched all 6 (80%), the other 3 were won by teams matching 5 of 6.
kansas city 6 of 6
tampa bay 5 of 6

then the "20pt system"...
+3 for each su reg sea win when holding opponents to less than 14pts
+2 for each su reg sea win with opponents scoring more than 30pts
-3 for each su reg sea loss with opponents scoring more than 30pts
-2 for each su reg sea loss where opponents scored less than 14pts

if any team reaches 20+pts they go to the bowl, unfortunately no team was able to reach that mark this year...
kansas city (+4)
tampa bay (+5)
over the last 21 years teams produced a 20+pt finish 17 times, that team reached the bowl 13 times, but thats just to get to the bowl.
the moving parts of this system is that of the 2 sb partcipants, the one with the lower numerical value has covered the pointspread in 12 of the last 15 straight(80%) since 05.
they've also won the sb outright in 12 of last 16 straight (75%) since 04.

i always thought that i couldn't stand brady and new england getting in the superbowl every year after year after year after year, but now that TB12 cut out and plays for tampa
i've come to realize it was just belicek taking the credit i couldn't stand and brady was carrying them more than not, simply put...he's that good, but more importantly Brady breaks the rules
and i'll show how...

since 2004 the team with the better regular season record has went 1-13 ats in last 14, also 2-10 su in last 12 since 06
the lone ats cover?
**(Brady comes back from 25pts down to cover vs atlanta in ot)

since 2002 the dog has went 13-6 ats with the favorite covering 3 of the last 4...who was it?
**(Brady ot win vs atlanta in 2017)
**(Brady vs rams in 2019)
**(Mahommes 4th qt comeback vs SF in 2020)

all superbowl favorites of 5pts or less coming off a bye week have went 4-10 su+ats...they were 1-10 until...
**(Brady ot win vs atlanta in 2017)
**(Brady vs rams in 2019)
**(Mahommes 4th qt comeback vs SF in 2020)

since 1988 the sb team who had scored less points while allowing more opponent points in their respective conference championship games has went 7-2 ats.
CC GAMES
kansas city 38 buffalo 24
tampa bay 31 green bay 26
the 2 games that failed ats...who was it?
**(Brady in 2014)
**(Brady in 2017)

when superbowl teams had met previously in the same regular season the team who lost in reg sea won in sb 5 of 7 times
11/19/20 kansas city(3.5) 27 at tampa bay 24

since 1999 superbowl teams off b2b road games are 6-2 su and 7-0-1 ats.

and to finish it the "total opposite" will give side and total..
since 1992 11 teams have made it to the superbowl via the wildcard route(not counting tb this year), in these games the total has went opposite of

half the page got wiped out...i'll finish shortly...

GAME.

and to finish it the "total opposite" will give side and total..
since 1992 11 teams have made it to the superbowl via the wildcard route(not counting tb this year), in these games the total has went opposite of the cc game 9 times with
that same team going 9-1-1 ats, including the last 8 straight, giving you side and total.

year.........team............wc gm...............dv gm.................cc gm...................sb...............................ats...........o/u
1992.......buf..............hm fv-o.............rd dg-u................rd fv-u.................lost sb(+6.5) 17-52.........l..............o
1997.......den.............hm fv-o.............rd pk-u................hm fv-o................won sb(+11.5) 31-24......w.............o
1999.......ten..............hm fv-u............rd dg-u.................rd dg-o................lost sb(+7) 16-23...........p.............u
2000.......bal..............hm fv-u............rd dg-o.................rd dg-u................won sb(-3) 34-7..............w............o
2003.......car..............hm fv-o.............rd dg-o................rd dg-u................lost sb(+7) 29-32............w............o
2005.......pit..............rd fv-o...............rd dg-u................rd dg-o................won sb(-4) 21-10............w............u
2006.......ind..............hm fv-u.............rd dg-u................hm fv-o...............won sb(-6.5) 29-17..........w............u
2007.......nyg.............rd dg-u.............rd dg-u.................rd dg-o...............won sb(+12.5) 17-14........w...........u
2010.......gb...............rd dg-u.............rd dg-o.................rd fv-u................won sb(-3) 31-25.............w...........o
2011.......nyg.............hm fv-u.............rd dg-o.................rd dg-u...............won sb(+3) 21-17............w...........u
2012.......bal..............hm fv-u.............rd dg-o................rd dg-u................won sb(+4.5) 34-31.........w...........o
2020.......tb................rd fv-o..............rd dg-u................rd dg-o.................??


BRADY BREAKS RULES

tampa bay and under


GAME.

Thx Game. Great info and write up. BOL

Brady Bunch thrives? Looks like it to me!

thx game good info good luck
:toast:

It was worth the wait, thanks for posting, GAME. This SB will be epic!!!

awesome, thank you

Great work Game

i knew i lost one when the page got wiped out...so.....OOPS

since 2001...teams who got to the superbowl by way of an upset win in the conference championship game have went 9-3 su and 11-1 ats.

GAME.

thanks for all the info and the write up!

i'm a little confused with your fast start system. didn't tampa bay hit all 6 qualifiers? unless i'm missing something when looking back at their schedule.

https://www.scoresandodds.com/nfl/teams/buccaneers

has there ever been a super bowl with both teams matching 6 of 6 qualifiers?

special_k said:

thanks for all the info and the write up!

i'm a little confused with your fast start system. didn't tampa bay hit all 6 qualifiers? unless i'm missing something when looking back at their schedule.

https://www.scoresandodds.com/nfl/teams/buccaneers

has there ever been a super bowl with both teams matching 6 of 6 qualifiers?

Click to expand...

tampa gave up more than 100pts, they hit 5 of 6...

and last year both teams met 6 of 6...kc and sf..

GAME.

thanks for the reply!

tampa gave up only 92 points through 4 games which would make them 6 of 6. possible chance for a SU win also in play.

back to back super bowls with both teams meeting 6 of 6. could be something to keep track of for the future with regards to lines.

will keep in mind your qualifiers next year to throw some futures bets!

damn k....you're right!

they're 6 of 6...that closes the door on my pick, that's huge, thank you...good catch!

GAME.

THEGAME9000 said:

and to finish it the "total opposite" will give side and total..
since 1992 11 teams have made it to the superbowl via the wildcard route(not counting tb this year), in these games the total has went opposite of the cc game 9 times with
that same team going 9-1-1 ats, including the last 8 straight, giving you side and total.

year.........team............wc gm...............dv gm.................cc gm...................sb...............................ats...........o/u
1992.......buf..............hm fv-o.............rd dg-u................rd fv-u.................lost sb(+6.5) 17-52.........l..............o
1997.......den.............hm fv-o.............rd pk-u................hm fv-o................won sb(+11.5) 31-24......w.............o
1999.......ten..............hm fv-u............rd dg-u.................rd dg-o................lost sb(+7) 16-23...........p.............u
2000.......bal..............hm fv-u............rd dg-o.................rd dg-u................won sb(-3) 34-7..............w............o
2003.......car..............hm fv-o.............rd dg-o................rd dg-u................lost sb(+7) 29-32............w............o
2005.......pit..............rd fv-o...............rd dg-u................rd dg-o................won sb(-4) 21-10............w............u
2006.......ind..............hm fv-u.............rd dg-u................hm fv-o...............won sb(-6.5) 29-17..........w............u
2007.......nyg.............rd dg-u.............rd dg-u.................rd dg-o...............won sb(+12.5) 17-14........w...........u
2010.......gb...............rd dg-u.............rd dg-o.................rd fv-u................won sb(-3) 31-25.............w...........o
2011.......nyg.............hm fv-u.............rd dg-o.................rd dg-u...............won sb(+3) 21-17............w...........u
2012.......bal..............hm fv-u.............rd dg-o................rd dg-u................won sb(+4.5) 34-31.........w...........o
2020.......tb................rd fv-o..............rd dg-u................rd dg-o.................??


BRADY BREAKS RULES

tampa bay and under


GAME.

Click to expand...

the more things change the more they stay the same....another case of history repeating itself.

gotta love lord football

GAME.

Sweep!