5 Reasons Why the Kansas City Chiefs Will Win Super Bowl LV
1. Multitude of playmakers on offense
There's no getting around this: Kansas City has proven that its offense can strike in a number of different ways. When Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are all featured members of the offense, a defense has to wonder which one Patrick Mahomes will target... that is, if he doesn't keep the ball himself.
Hill and Kelce ranked first and second in the NFL, respectively, in yards per touch during the regular season with 14 and 13.5. To put that in context, only eight qualified players — those with 100 or more touches (rushes + receptions) — even average 10 yards per touch, and only 15 mustered more than six. Here's another indicator: Kelce (9.8) and Hill (9.7) each averaged nearly 10 yards *per target* during the season. So based on their performance throughout the season, Mahomes can be fairly confident that his offense will gain a first down simply by throwing at either of his top targets. Having one of those game-changing talents can provide a big boost to an offense; having two can be a true difference-maker, especially in a game of this magnitude.
2. Defense's ability to limit opposing wide receivers
Tampa Bay showed in the NFC Championship Game against Green Bay that it also has plenty of pass-catching threats at its disposal, even with Antonio Brown sidelined by a knee injury. Against Washington in the Wild Card Round, Mike Evans led the way with six catches for 119 yards, while Chris Godwin and Brown each hauled in a touchdown while notching 79 and 49 yards, respectively. Last week it was Godwin who eclipsed the century mark with five receptions for 110 yards, while Evans (3 rec., 51 yds.) and Scotty Miller (2, 36) each found the end zone.
But during the regular season, the Chiefs allowed the second-fewest receiving yards (2,159 or 134.9 ypg) to opposing wide receivers, trailing only the Los Angeles Rams (2,075, 130) in that category. Of Josh Allen's 287 passing yards passing on Sunday, 195 went to wide receivers, while the Chiefs allowed just 207 yards through the air — only 131 to wide receivers — in the Divisional Round against Cleveland. With the Buccaneers, like the Chiefs, possessing a wide range of options in the passing game, limiting Tom Brady and his wide receivers will be a crucial task for the Chiefs.
3. Mahomes' blitz-beating capability
One way to attempt to get an opposing offense out of rhythm is to bring a blitz, and Tampa Bay — led by defensive coordinator Todd Bowles — is no stranger to doing just that. According to Pro Football Focus, the Buccaneers blitzed on 39 percent of dropbacks, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL and second-highest in the NFC behind only Arizona (Bowles' former team), who blitzed at a 39.3 percent clip.
But Mahomes has thrived against pressure-heavy looks throughout the season. He's faced a blitz on nearly 22 percent of his dropbacks this season and has actually done better facing a blitz than when not. For the season he's completed 66.5 percent of his passes, a mark that jumps to 70.8 percent when blitzed (66.2 percent when not blitzed). Sixteen of his 39 touchdowns have come against a blitz, but he has thrown just one of his six interceptions in that situation. Mahomes' intimate knowledge of the playbook and his pass catchers' tendencies have been integral to his success even when facing pressure, and the ability to make the right read when blitzed or make something happen off-script will need to be on full display once again against a defense that has been successful bringing pressure the majority of this season.
4. Defensive line causing havoc
Just as Mahomes has thrived on beating the blitz, his defensive teammates have done well with pressuring opposing quarterbacks. Per PFF, the Chiefs have allowed the lowest opponent survival rate (rate of preventing a QB pressure) after just two seconds after the snap.
While Mahomes has excelled against pressure, Brady has not enjoyed the same level of success when blitzed. Brady has faced a blitz on a little more than 27 percent of his dropbacks, and his completion percentage (58.5 percent) is nearly eight points lower than when he is not blitzed (66.2). Perhaps more notable is that, per PFF, while his touchdown share (14 vs. blitz, 33 vs. no blitz) falls more in line with the rate at which he's blitzed, a troubling 40 percent of his interceptions (six of 15) have come against a blitz, a likely area for the Chiefs' defensive front to try and exploit.
5. Team's belief that it can win any game
Thanks to its prolific offense, Kansas City has a strong belief that it is hardly out of any game, even when behind early — which was the case on Sunday when Buffalo led 9-0 after the first 15 minutes of play. The second quarter has been the money quarter for the Chiefs all season long, as their 10.2 points per game in the second quarter alone are tied for the second-best mark in the NFL.
Kansas City has scored 40 second-quarter points across its last three games, including 21 against Buffalo and 13 against Cleveland in the Divisional Round. That level of firepower on offense helps instill a belief that the team can be aggressive because, in most situations when they have fallen behind, the Chiefs have demonstrated an ability to get up off the mat and claw back into games, often en route to a win.
Final Analysis
Without question, Kansas City possesses a brilliant offense that can strike in a number of ways. Those dynamic playmakers on offense stand alongside a defense that's the best in the league at getting quick pressure while having a knack for keeping opposing wideouts in check. That combination offers this Kansas City team a legitimate chance at keeping one of the greatest quarterbacks in history from hoisting his seventh Lombardi Trophy while joining the exclusive club of repeat Super Bowl champions.
Written by Juan Jose Rodriguez,
1. Multitude of playmakers on offense
There's no getting around this: Kansas City has proven that its offense can strike in a number of different ways. When Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are all featured members of the offense, a defense has to wonder which one Patrick Mahomes will target... that is, if he doesn't keep the ball himself.
Hill and Kelce ranked first and second in the NFL, respectively, in yards per touch during the regular season with 14 and 13.5. To put that in context, only eight qualified players — those with 100 or more touches (rushes + receptions) — even average 10 yards per touch, and only 15 mustered more than six. Here's another indicator: Kelce (9.8) and Hill (9.7) each averaged nearly 10 yards *per target* during the season. So based on their performance throughout the season, Mahomes can be fairly confident that his offense will gain a first down simply by throwing at either of his top targets. Having one of those game-changing talents can provide a big boost to an offense; having two can be a true difference-maker, especially in a game of this magnitude.
2. Defense's ability to limit opposing wide receivers
Tampa Bay showed in the NFC Championship Game against Green Bay that it also has plenty of pass-catching threats at its disposal, even with Antonio Brown sidelined by a knee injury. Against Washington in the Wild Card Round, Mike Evans led the way with six catches for 119 yards, while Chris Godwin and Brown each hauled in a touchdown while notching 79 and 49 yards, respectively. Last week it was Godwin who eclipsed the century mark with five receptions for 110 yards, while Evans (3 rec., 51 yds.) and Scotty Miller (2, 36) each found the end zone.
But during the regular season, the Chiefs allowed the second-fewest receiving yards (2,159 or 134.9 ypg) to opposing wide receivers, trailing only the Los Angeles Rams (2,075, 130) in that category. Of Josh Allen's 287 passing yards passing on Sunday, 195 went to wide receivers, while the Chiefs allowed just 207 yards through the air — only 131 to wide receivers — in the Divisional Round against Cleveland. With the Buccaneers, like the Chiefs, possessing a wide range of options in the passing game, limiting Tom Brady and his wide receivers will be a crucial task for the Chiefs.
3. Mahomes' blitz-beating capability
One way to attempt to get an opposing offense out of rhythm is to bring a blitz, and Tampa Bay — led by defensive coordinator Todd Bowles — is no stranger to doing just that. According to Pro Football Focus, the Buccaneers blitzed on 39 percent of dropbacks, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL and second-highest in the NFC behind only Arizona (Bowles' former team), who blitzed at a 39.3 percent clip.
But Mahomes has thrived against pressure-heavy looks throughout the season. He's faced a blitz on nearly 22 percent of his dropbacks this season and has actually done better facing a blitz than when not. For the season he's completed 66.5 percent of his passes, a mark that jumps to 70.8 percent when blitzed (66.2 percent when not blitzed). Sixteen of his 39 touchdowns have come against a blitz, but he has thrown just one of his six interceptions in that situation. Mahomes' intimate knowledge of the playbook and his pass catchers' tendencies have been integral to his success even when facing pressure, and the ability to make the right read when blitzed or make something happen off-script will need to be on full display once again against a defense that has been successful bringing pressure the majority of this season.
4. Defensive line causing havoc
Just as Mahomes has thrived on beating the blitz, his defensive teammates have done well with pressuring opposing quarterbacks. Per PFF, the Chiefs have allowed the lowest opponent survival rate (rate of preventing a QB pressure) after just two seconds after the snap.
While Mahomes has excelled against pressure, Brady has not enjoyed the same level of success when blitzed. Brady has faced a blitz on a little more than 27 percent of his dropbacks, and his completion percentage (58.5 percent) is nearly eight points lower than when he is not blitzed (66.2). Perhaps more notable is that, per PFF, while his touchdown share (14 vs. blitz, 33 vs. no blitz) falls more in line with the rate at which he's blitzed, a troubling 40 percent of his interceptions (six of 15) have come against a blitz, a likely area for the Chiefs' defensive front to try and exploit.
5. Team's belief that it can win any game
Thanks to its prolific offense, Kansas City has a strong belief that it is hardly out of any game, even when behind early — which was the case on Sunday when Buffalo led 9-0 after the first 15 minutes of play. The second quarter has been the money quarter for the Chiefs all season long, as their 10.2 points per game in the second quarter alone are tied for the second-best mark in the NFL.
Kansas City has scored 40 second-quarter points across its last three games, including 21 against Buffalo and 13 against Cleveland in the Divisional Round. That level of firepower on offense helps instill a belief that the team can be aggressive because, in most situations when they have fallen behind, the Chiefs have demonstrated an ability to get up off the mat and claw back into games, often en route to a win.
Final Analysis
Without question, Kansas City possesses a brilliant offense that can strike in a number of ways. Those dynamic playmakers on offense stand alongside a defense that's the best in the league at getting quick pressure while having a knack for keeping opposing wideouts in check. That combination offers this Kansas City team a legitimate chance at keeping one of the greatest quarterbacks in history from hoisting his seventh Lombardi Trophy while joining the exclusive club of repeat Super Bowl champions.
Written by Juan Jose Rodriguez,
5 Reasons Why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Will Win Super Bowl LV
1. Tom Brady — The G.O.A.T.
This one is obvious, but there is not another quarterback on the planet more valuable on Super Sunday than Tom Brady. He is already the proud owner of six Super Bowl rings and four Super Bowl MVP trophies. Super Bowl LV will mark Brady's 10th appearance in the big game. And even at age 43, he continues to play at a very high level. In his first regular-season in a Buccaneer uniform, Brady completed 66 percent of his pass attempts for 4,633 yards with 40 touchdowns and a passer rating of 102.2. More importantly, there's no substitute for Brady's talent, experience, poise, and fortitude, which will all pay big dividends in Super LV. Patrick Mahomes is a very worthy adversary as a former Super Bowl champion and MVP himself, but this isn't Jimmy Garoppolo that he will be paired against this time around - he's going head-to-head with the G.O.A.T. Brady has already bounced legendary quarterbacks Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers from the playoffs, and he's more than capable of doing the same to Mahomes, particularly in a Super Bowl setting, where Brady is typically at his best.
2. Plenty of offensive firepower on tap
There's no question that Brady is the primary catalyst behind Tampa Bay's rise to prominence this season. But he couldn't have done it alone. And while Mahomes ranks among the best in the league, a strong argument can be made that Brady's arsenal of explosive weapons is even better. Tampa Bay doesn't have just one former All-Pro wide receiver on the roster, or even two for that matter — they have three. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown are all elite talents that give defensive backs fits and can put up huge numbers in any given game. And the superstar talent doesn't end there. The Bucs also have future Hall of Fame tight end Rob Gronkowski, a favorite target of Brady's through their many years together. Backup tight end Cameron Brate has proven to be a valuable asset as well, while wide receivers Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson are capable pass catchers. Add in a pair of talented running backs in Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette, and you might just have the best arsenal of weapons in the league. And we'd be remiss to leave out Tampa Bay's offensive line, which allowed the fourth-fewest sacks (22) during the regular season and graded out as the fifth-best in the NFL — six spots ahead of Kansas City's O-line (according to PFF). The Buccaneers have more than enough firepower on offense to get the job done against a middle-of-the-road Kansas City defense on Super Sunday.
3. Superior defense
Tampa Bay ranked ninth in the NFL this season in defensive efficiency, while Kansas City ranked a mediocre 20th. Tampa Bay also boasts the No. 1-ranked run defense in the NFL (80.6 ypg, 3.6 ypc, and the fewest rushing TDs allowed), while Kansas City finished the season ranked 21st against the run. The Chiefs were better in terms of passing yards allowed, but it was by a pretty small margin. And a Kansas City pass rush that produced 32 sacks pales in comparison to a Buccaneers' pass rush that generated 48 (fourth-most) during the regular season. That bodes well for top-flight pass rushers Jason Pierre-Paul (11.5 sacks including playoffs), Shaquil Barrett (11) and Devin White (9), who will be paired against a Kansas City offensive line that will be without three starters from last year's Super Bowl-winning team in All-Pro guard Mitchell Schwartz (knee), Pro Bowl left tackle Eric Fisher (Achilles) and guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (opted out). Tampa Bay also has one of the most opportunistic defenses in the league. The Buccaneers scored 101 points (third-most in the NFL) off of 25 takeaways (fourth-most) during the regular season. And they have been even better in that regard during the postseason, capitalizing on seven turnovers to produce 41 of their 93 total points in three playoff games so far. Todd Bowles' defense isn't without its faults, but the Bucs seems to have the clear advantage on that side of the ball in his matchup.
4. Momentum and home-field advantage
It takes momentum to make it all the way to the Super Bowl, and both teams come into this game with plenty of it. However, only one of these teams will make their way into Super Bowl LV riding a seven-game winning streak. Tampa Bay also is averaging a ridiculous 34.3 points per game during that stretch, which includes three consecutive playoff road games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have produced at a clip of 26.4 points per game during that same seven-game stretch.
Tampa Bay has the benefit of home-field advantage as well. Raymond James Stadium won't be chock-full of Buccaneer supporters on Super Sunday due to COVID-19 restrictions. But the comforts and familiarity that come with playing in their home stadium should provide the Bucs with an edge. Tampa Bay head coach Bruce Arians also thinks being at home will provide an advantage, stating "I think the big advantage is we stay in our own beds, sleep here and just do our normal routine. Nothing is out of the ordinary until we hit the media sessions next week. But just to be able to stay in your routine, sleep in your bed and all that stuff, I think it's a huge advantage."
5. The kicking game
Kickers rarely get the credit they deserve. However, the kicking game can be a huge part of a team's success (or lack thereof). The kicking game almost always plays a critical role in the outcome, with games won and lost every week in the NFL based on this often-overlooked aspect. And with Super LV shaping up to be a closely contested shootout, one made or missed kick could make all the difference. That being said, you couldn't ask for a more clutch kicker than Tampa Bay's Ryan Succop at the moment. Succop has missed just one field goal in his last 15 games. He's made good on 31 of his last 32 field goal attempts, including a perfect 8-for-8 in the playoffs. Kansas City kicker Harrison Butker is solid in his own right, but he's already missed a 33-yard field goal and an extra point in the Chiefs' two playoff games. If Super Bowl LV comes down to the kicking game, and it very well could, the red-hot Succop might just be the x-factor that helps lead the Bucs to the title.
Written by Rob McVey,
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