UFC on ESPN+ 44 at the Apex

• Rozenstruik +225 & by KO +275 ...This is an extremely interesting stylistic matchup. Gane is freakily fluid on his feet for a man his size, has a great understanding of kicking range and has amazing dexterity with his legs. He is also proven to have a couple different subs in his tool box, even if he did pull them off against sub-par competition. Roz is an extraordinarily explosive and fast striker with a strong chin and may be the best fighter in the entire sport at countering kicks with his own. He will check a leg kick or block a body/head kick and fire back with a leg kick instantaneously. It’s actually magnificent to watch the speed of this huge mans striking. I’m backing Roz due to Gane’s style and the fact we have no idea if he can keep that pace and efficiency for 5 rounds when faced with adversity. Gane fights very loose and strikes at a high volume with kicks from the outside and throws darting and lunging punches to cover distance. He throws a beautiful uppercut, but he carries his hands quite low when throwing punches and JDS landed a big right hand on the counter near the end of the first round that shook up Gane a bit. Roz is a very accurate counter striker, if he lands that punch on Gane, he will most likely go to sleep. Roz is also very clearly comfortable in a fight as well, zero wasted energy or movement. We also know for a fact that Roz carries his speed and power up until the very last second of a 25 minute fight as shown by his knockout of Overeem with 4 seconds left in that fight. I believe Gane will get ahead early with his volume but take lots of leg kick-counters and that will slow down his bouncy and loose movement as the fight carries on. If that happens he will lose his biggest advantage and be forced into a style of fight on the feet that he does not have the firepower to win. I don’t see Gane knocking out Roz, he hasn’t shown himself to have one-punch KO power before, even when he was fighting much lower level opposition. If you’re going to pick Gane, I think to win via sum may be your best bet. If he can get Roz to the ground, it’s the one area of the game where he’s pretty clearly superior and you can the odds are favorable for that result.
• Magomed Ankalaev ITD -125 ...Krylov is a tricky customer. The Ukrainian possesses a powerful kicks and historically has been willing to drop everything to chase a risky sub. In the past couple of bouts, however, Krylov appears to have adopted a 'grinder' style that aims to rack up takedowns and control time. Against Ankalaev, Krylov will struggle immensely to get the Russian to the mat without ending up on his own back. Ankalaev's ability to manoeuvre opponents with his jab, before setting them up for his lethal left hand, will allow him to dictate...
• Mayra Bueno Silva by Decision ...difficult match-up to call because fights between two grapplers often descend into sloppy striking affairs in which the winner is anybody's guess. If De la Rosa chases the takedown (as her usual strategy is), it will be a battle between keeping top control and surviving frequent off-the-back submission attempts from Silva. Silva is more active on the feet but her striking defence is atrocious. Favouring Silva to stuff loose De la Rosa takedowns, and dominate on the mat)
• Angela Hill - Decision! ...These two last fought four years ago in the Ultimate Fighter Finale, and there is little reason to believe that the result will be any different this time around. Hill has rounded out her game since her decision victory and developed her skillset far beyond Yoder. Hill proved in her last outing against Waterson that she is a nuisance to drag down to the mat, and if the fight is to stay standing, her speed will always beat Yoder to the punch.
• Sabina Mazo ...While Davis is far more experienced in the clinch, she will struggle with the pace and superb athletic ability that Mazo offers. At a mid-range, Mazo can pick off Davis who has always struggled with a poor striking defense. Against the cage, Davis can find success, however Mazo has shown effective grappling so far...
• Dustin Jacoby by KO ...tough one to call as both men possess a wealth of experience, yet Jacoby's durability will favor him if this descends into a phone-booth brawl by the later rounds. Grishin badly missing weight on the scales has done little to tip this in his favor either.

JimmyVegas said:

De la Rosa wins

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