The Great Game 2021 (w TB Rays focus)

barman · Feb 27, 2021

Happy 2021, gents

This here thread to hopefully be my season-long homage to my favorite big league sport and to my favorite team, the current AL champion TB Rays

Various ongoing yak yak about all things baseball; a likely off and on posting of hot wagering opinions and a waystation for those seeking info on Rays and/or discussing their inevitable defense of the AL pennant flag - something only two teams have managed during past 19 seasons

Friendly & sincere on-topic Replies, Opinions and Wager thoughts are welcome and encouraged as I am one who dreams of the RxForum regaining some of it's well-earned cyber stature re SPORTS, SPORTS BETTING and all that entails

Off topic and unduly argumentative fodder will be utterly ignored and anyone frantic enough to persist in such a vein will be set to Ignore which saves me the annoyance of reading it. Most pertinent to this friendly precaution is the reminder that I retired from "political" and non-sports social commentary at the Rx in November 2012

My ol' buddy Sgt Lanquel (uncle of Rx member 'Sheriff Joe') did derive manic enjoyment of such chat during past eight years but he has fully retired back to his hometown of Toronto, CN and is now a recluse on the golf courses of Ontario, occasionally in tow of also-retired Rx member Dr Ricboff

So that's it.....looking forward to a great 2021 MLB season and a possible modestly profitable return to true sports wagering albeit in highly conservative amounts on accounta I only bet what I can afford to lose which ain't all that much

Bottom line.....Absolutely nothing serious going on here

Same general content on more of a daily basis available thru my account on the tweeter @shbarman where I welcome interaction ..... with the more helpful BLOCK tool available for anyone who Follows for any reason other than smiling yak yak

barman · Feb 27, 2021

2/27/21

First things first

For the fourth year in a row it would appear that almost the entire MLB world is utterly disdainful of TBRays Futures

Current sportsbook odds have them seeded SEVENTH with Odds to win WS ranging from +2500 to +3000

Season Win Total lines have not yet been posted but a 7th seed is likely going to be looking at some number in the high 80s

Actual preseason Win Total lines vs Actual outcome past 3 years

2018: 83.5 (90)
2019: 84.5 (96)
2020: was 92, adjusted to 33.5 in July (40)

Rays MiL system is for second year in a row number 1 and for fourth year in a row Top3

This incredible depth of highly qualified yutes has allowed them to pretty easily fill any seeming lineup and pitching staff holes which for many observers began in June 2018 when they traded their at that time perceived number one SP Chris Archer

It has allowed them to for the most part field the same core group of position players for what will be the third year in a row since no one of note reached FA status. In 2020 this lineup averaged 4.8 rpg (6th in the AL) which was more than enough to create a 1.0 run per game differential ahead of their league leading 3.8 rpg Allowed

The Rays batters are very realistically trending UP at literally all nine positions in the batting order and they have at least three and up to five young men who can be ML ready by early summer

The pitching saw the departure of Blake Snell and Charlie Morton and replaced them with four different established ML arms in Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Colin McHugh and the returning Archer who last worked in Sept 2019 due to physical issues non-related to on-field performance

The bullpen, which has been top ERA in AL past two seasons, is even deeper and of course all Rays pitching remains most steadied by their paradigm-shifting deployment of arms.....notably their frequent beginning a game with a "relief" pitcher for first four to six batters and in general rarely using any arm more than twice thru an opponent's batting order

barman · Feb 27, 2021

Extremely early musing on general 2021 AL

EAST

RAYS: Replicating last season's 1.0 per game run differential (exactly 60 runs in 60 games) equates to 99 wins. Since there's currently no compelling info to discourage this forecast we'll look forward to that level of success or better

JAYS: TOR may well have done more to honestly improve their roster than any team in the league and on the heels of their equiv 84win (32-28) 2020 we can see them pushing to 90, 91 wins and possible WC berth

YANKEES: The Bombers are absurdly forecasted by betting public to be 3rd seed in ML. While they may not be far away from returning to championship threats they are a pretty middlin' roster overall. Five batters who would be scooped up in a heartbeat if FA and then about 10 very ordinary and aging extras. The pitching is Cole plus maybe another half dozen very solid throwers plus again, about 10 very ordinary and not yet ready for primetime extras. Look for them to be dreaming of 90 Wins as the end of September nears

BIRDS: Aside from organizing surprise playoff berths in '12, '14 & '16 the Baltimores have been an uninspiring bunch. Little reason to think otherwise this year though the much weaker NY & BOS clubs seem less likely to be pounding their ass 16 out of 19 so let's see them threaten a full 70 Wins

SOX: No team has had more 5thPlace finishes in past nine years (4) than Boston and though they enter 2021 a notch superior to Balt we forsee GM Bloom dealing at least a couple key senior players well before July 31 so their final two month slide should have them gasping to break out of the 60s in Wins

barman · Feb 27, 2021

CENTRAL

TRIBE: Likely the only pitching staff outside Oakland that can be better than Rays + Terry Francona and this division could be had with 92 Wins

HOSE: The most inspiring group of both young arms and young bats outside of TB....but we remain in the group that notes "Out of 3.5Billion men on planet Earth they hired Tony Larussa????" Potential to win 95 and push for third seed but equally potential to have their pitching and developing batters stifled by a manager who last played just 30 months after MLB began divisonal play

TWINS: Much like the NYY, we see about a half dozen really really talented bats to accompany maybe eight or nine pretty good arms and otherwise it's a sea of strikeouts at bat and a flush of hits allowed. Min tops out in 2021 w 87 Wins

DET & KC: Not a whole to see here though both clubs do seem sincere in their attempts to regain the swagger that captured three pennants and one world chanpionship between 2012-2015. They will tussle for a 73 win fourth place with the loser being close all the way

barman · Feb 27, 2021

WEST

SWINGIN' A's: Best collection of yutes in their division and also best pitching staff, a couple notches clear of Hou plus a (hopefully) healthy Chapman all season has Oakland again pushing towards 100 Wins....It should be noted that A's have more wins (103) in past 162 regular season tilts than any team in the league

ANGELS: We expect a pretty major dropoff in West with Oak clinching by Sept20 or sooner. Angels have assembled their best collection of bats in several years though the pitching is rather deficient. Count us as guilty for thinking Joe Maddon could be the difference maker in guiding their 2021 to threaten 90 Wins

ASTROS: See earlier descripts of NYY and MIN....Bottom line issues for HOU are a lack of depth in their position players, the loss of Springer and a bullpen that will struggle to be middle of pack. They *might* join ANA in the quest for 90 Wins but will also finish well behind the A's

RANGERS: My hometown team from 1972-1997 and one of only two teams to win back to back AL pennants in past 19 years....but that was 2011-12 and it's been a struggle since. They did appear to have improved last year's 15th AL ranked offense and may also have somewhat upgraded the 12th ranked pitching but they're a long way from home and smiling big if they break 72 Wins

SEAMEN: Possibly the most overlooked club in league at least relative to popular view of past few years which did include above .500 outcomes in 2016 and 2018. But they are entering their 20th year with no October baseball and that of course will not change...decent chance they end up above TEX w Wins in the high 70s but their very strong MiL system is still a couple full years from fueling a legit playoff contender

barman · Mar 14, 2021

As 2021 ST broaches the halfway point it's bemusing to note that Rays 26-35 slots on 40man roster is likely equal or superior to Yankees' 16-25 slots

NY will likely provide strong contention until they encounter multiple health problems and then their lack of ML-ready depth will bite them hard

barman · Mar 22, 2021

Our HSO re MLB 2021 Season Win Totals

(per betonline odds of early March)

TB RAYS Over 85.5 As noted in my earlier posts this is a stunning number that at least confirms avg MLB wagering population are utterly blind

I would wager Over any number of 93 or lower and therefore consider this as worthy of a 5x investment of anyone's usual risk Unit

SWINGIN' A's Over 86.5 Oakland is by far our favorite to win the West and even if HOU and LAA provide stern competition topping 90 wins seems reasonable for a club that has most wins (103) in AL past 162 3x

MIAMI Over 72.5 Also very bullish here as I think the Marlins can again touch a .500 finish based on some strong pitching depth and a modest bit of home field edge for visiting non-divisional opponents. Would bet this at 2x

TEXAS Over 67.5 Quite likely a fourth place team at best, the Rangers have done well in addressing last year's 15th ranked AL offense....1x

MIL over 82.5 Strong pitching, sterling defense bode well for a team seeking to deliver a +.500 season 2x

CLE Over 80.5 See Mil above.....Tribe *could* win the ALC if up n coming CWS flounders 2x

COL Under 63.5 Seems reasonable they will have worst record in NL 1x

MIN Under 88.5 They can still swing it but will be nowhere near the 300+ HR pace which won the ALC in 2019 and their pitching appears sketchier than that year along w rising Tribe and the Det/KC tandem being potential 70 game winners 1x

NYY Under 95.5 Inversely as absurd as Rays 85.5 The Bombers will of course attempt to bomb their way to a division title but that SP is really suspect and any notable downtime from their front six bats has no truly viable coverage due to their crappy MiL depth 3x

barman · Mar 25, 2021

My first live MLB game in 18 months - Saturday Apr 3 Rays at Marlins

barman · Apr 2, 2021

FRIDAY Apr 2

RAYS -105
RAYS -1.5 (+155)
MARLINS tt Under 3.5 (+110)
SWINGIN' A's -1.5 (+145)

barman · Apr 5, 2021

Monday, April 5

RAYS -120 at Sox
SOX tt Under 4 (+110)

barman · Apr 9, 2021

FRIDAY, April 9

RAYS +130 vs Bomber
LITTLE RANGERS +170 vs Padre

Half Unit

NAT +2.5 (-110) at Dodger

barman · Apr 10, 2021

SATURDAY, April 10

RAYS +120 vs Bomber
BIRD +125 vs Sox
MARLIN tt Over 2.5 (-115) at Metropolitan

barman · Apr 10, 2021

Saturday evening

Half Unit plays

LITTLE RANGERS +1.5 (-120)
PADRES/LR Under 9 (-120)

barman · Apr 11, 2021

SUNDAY, April 11

RAYS +135 vs Bomber
RAYS tt Over 4 (-110)

barman · Apr 12, 2021

MONDAY, April 12

RAYS tt Over 4.5 (-110)

barman · Apr 13, 2021

RAYS -1.5 (+105)
RAYS tt Over 4.5 (+100)

JAYS -115 vs Bomber
MARLINS tt Over 3.5 (+105) vs Brave

NAT/REDBIRD Over 7 (-105)
CAT +170 at Hou

ninjatactics · Apr 13, 2021

Like your style Barman keep it up

barman · Apr 13, 2021

Entering Tuesday night, the TB Rays

36-15 past 51 vs RH SP

38-12 past 50 at Home

barman · Apr 14, 2021

WEDNESDAY, Apr 14

CAT +1.5 (-135) at Hou
DODGER -1.5 (-120) vs Rock
LITTLE RANGERS tt Under 3.5 (-120)

barman · Apr 15, 2021

THURSDAY, April 15

Pleased to be attending first live game at Trop since Game4 of the 2019 ALDS

LITTLE RANGERS/RAYS Over 8 (-105)
BIRD Gm1 +105 vs Seamen
BIRD Gm2 -130 vs Seamen

SNAKE/NAT Under 8 (+100)
CAT tt Under 4 (-105) at Swingin' A's

The Great Game 2021 (w TB Rays focus)

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