| ||
|---|---|---|
|
[/FONT]
[FONT="]and a couple I really like[/FONT]
- Jordan Griffin/Luis Saldana Under 2.5 +157 ...Griffin has largely been outwrestled in all his UFC fights. Opponents are usually able to just grind him out for a decision. I think that’s why the odds juiced to the over. However, all of his opponents in the UFC are guys who have a decent offensive grappling game. Saldana is primarily a striker. While he may look to grapple since it appears to be a big hole in Griffin’s game I think he is a much more proficient striker. Saldana is very composed on the feet, picks and sits down on his shots. I give him the advantage in the striking but I think Griffin’s striking is solid too. Both guys seem to have rather heavy hands but pretty poor defense. I think both guys will land heavy shots on each other. I believe there is a good chance this will not see the scorecards. Griffin also seems to have a decent offensive grappling game as well, so if it’s a bit of a stalemate on the feet he can hunt the submission. Ultimately though, I feel this is a rather low level fight between two guys who aren’t very defensively sound.
- Jack Shore -175 ...Azure loads up a lot on his shots. He swings big, looks for the KO a lot! Big overhand, hooks, uppercuts, you name it. Can definitely hurt opponents/knock them out if he lands, but uses a ton of energy. I think his cardio is suspect, especially with the way he wings those bombs. He does have a wrestling base, and his offensive wrestling is solid, but it seems he’s fallen in love with his hands recently. His takedown defense isn’t bad, but we have seen him taken down and controlled as his cardio dips. Shore’s striking is serviceable, but his gameplan is to get the fight to the ground. He’s got good timing on the level change and has really slick back takes. He will look to cage push and get trips against the cage as well. On the ground he’s got good top control, solid guard pass, and can be aggressive with his submission attempts. On the feet, I give Azure the advantage, but he’s too reliant on landing a bomb. If he lands clean he can knock Shore out, but if he doesn’t he’ll leave lots of opportunities for Shore to hit a level change since Azure overextends on a lot of his shots. I think Shore will look to grapple early to mitigate the striking of Azure and to drain his cardio. Shore has great cardio on his end and has shown to implement a grapple heavy gameplan for 3 rounds. Azure also has a tendency to give up his back when working his way back up. So while I think Shore will likely grind out a decision I think he will have some opportunities to sink in the rear naked choke later in the fight. I think he’s live for sub, maybe in round 2 or 3.
- Sam Alvey +135 ...Alvey is 0-4-1 in his last 5 and has a very boring fight style. Literally all he does is back up against the cage and look to counter. Not much more to say about him since that is pretty much his gameplan. However, I still feel it’s a rather favorable matchup for him. Marques is really nothing to write home about either, and the way he fights makes him very counter-able. He likes to move forward and wing those bombs. He’s got a lot of power in his hands but he leaves his chin on a platter. We saw a glimpse of how he does against a counter striker in Di Chirico, and that ended up being a very close, sloppy fight. I just think there is a decent chance he walks right into one of Alvey’s counter hooks. And if he doesn’t I think the fight will be close enough for Alvey to steal a decision. The way Alvey fights, he’s able to slow the pace of the fight down to his level because opponents are weary of the power coming back. I also faded Marques in his last fight because he was coming off a nasty injury, and as I suspected, he looked awful in that fight. He was on his way to losing a sound decision but luckily for him Pitolo choked like he usually does and lost the fight in the final minute. I think this fight will be close. ALvey's last 5 have been at LHW where he's a bit undersized, but now back at 185 he should have slight size advantage as Marques is a smaller MW. At these odds it's "Smilin Sammy" all the way.
- Mike Perry +120 ...Rodriguez is a pretty slick striker in my opinion. He’s got a great jab, good combination striking and is able to mix it up really well. Defensively, he’s decent, but does overextend on some combinations and will get a little sloppy when exchanging in the pocket. He also fights at a pretty high pace. He’s looked good so far, but outside of Tim Means, he hasn’t really beaten any one of note. Perry is a bit of a brawler, likes to move forward, pressure opponents and head hunt. He’s not super technical, but he makes up for it with his strength, durability and aggression. He’s also shown that he’s got some offensive grappling in his arsenal too. This may be a decent buy low spot on Perry as he’s had 2 disappointing performances recently, but I feel Perry’s got all the tools to succeed. I get his last 2 performances were a letdown, but going into those fights he wasn’t training, only hitting pads with his girlfriend, didn’t have a corner, etc. I think now that he’s in an actual camp, has real sparring partners and a corner I think he’ll give a much better account of himself. As far as the matchup goes, while I like the offensive striking of Rodriguez a bit more, he still leaves himself open to taking damage quite a bit. We’ve seen him hurt by Dalby and Grant, and I think Perry can do the same. I felt Rodriguez had a rather uncharacteristic performance against Dalby, but upon rewatch I feel that the Dalby hurting Rodriguez early really made him tentative to engage the rest of the fight. I think something similar will happen this fight. I think when Rodriguez eats a clean shot from Perry it’ll make him hesitant to exchange in the pocket. Overall I see Perry landing the much more impactful shots. I also think that Perry can put a stamp on each round if he is able to use his grappling a bit to secure some control time. I don’t think he’ll gas himself out this time, especially if he uses the grappling sparingly. Lastly, I just want to mention the level of competition Perry has been going up against. He’s given a good account of himself against guys like Neal (before the headkick), Luque, Oliveira, Felder, and Ponzinibbio who are all top guys in the division. I think Perry will put up a good fight. I think he gets the decision, but would not be surprised if he knocked Rodriguez out.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]
