UFC on ESPN 22: Whittaker vs Gastelum

MattyMatt · Apr 17, 2021

Not a bad little card for tonight...

Tony Gravely wins ITD +110...................1 unit -Love watching Gravely wrestle. He's a great kid who got his start on my regional scene, so I've been apart of several of his fights, and always knew the UFC days were coming. He's an excellent kid and person to represent this sport, and a poster child for what wrestling can do for a kid. Get your children into wrestling...

G. Meerschaert +110............................0.5 unit

G. Meerschaert wins by sub +200..........0.25 unit

Justine Kish +265........................0.5 unit

Alex Munoz +135.........................1 unit

Chase Sherman +110...................0.5 unit

Drakkar Close +110.....................2 units -this may end up being a 3-5 unit banger for me. IMO, Stephens is done. He does still warrant some KO power, but as long as Klose doesn't fight Stephens fight, he should be able to frustrate him, get the easy decision or even finish Jeremy. Stephens was a complete and uber clown at the weigh-ins, so Klose needs to stay composed, use his speed and stick to the game plan. If he doesn't get wild or run outta gas, I see this as an easy victory...

I lean Gastelum in the Main, but you never know what you're gonna get with this guy. Never been a huge fan of Whittaker as I really don't think he does anything special...

Good luck and enjoy the fights and weekend...

Inittowinit · Apr 17, 2021

Hey Matty, im curious why you chose Munoz? And its your top bet. I was going to unload on Pena but ive been seeing a lot of cappers taking Munoz. I dont know anything about Munoz, mever seen him fight but im a huge Pena fan and i think he comes out hungry since he got caught with that choke and lost his last fight.

MattyMatt · Apr 17, 2021

Inittowinit said:
Hey Matty, im curious why you chose Munoz? And its your top bet. I was going to unload on Pena but ive been seeing a lot of cappers taking Munoz. I dont know anything about Munoz, mever seen him fight but im a huge Pena fan and i think he comes out hungry since he got caught with that choke and lost his last fight.

Well, it’s not my largest bet, but I do like it, and see value on Munoz as the dog...

Munoz is stronger and the better wrestler by far. Pena TDD is garbage, but he does have length, which could hold well for some nice sub attempts if he finds himself on bottom, or some frustration from range if it stays on the feet. Munoz went the distance with Nasrat his first UFC fight, whom is way better than Pena, and I look forward to him wanting to rough up Pena with top control here, edging out the decision.

Now if Munoz can’t find the takedown, or get inside, it could be a long and frustrating night for Munoz, topped off with the always crafty sub attempts with the long legs and arms of Pena if it does hit the ground, don’t let me talk you outta Pena, I just feel like his ceiling is way higher than Pena and here’s his chance to get it started in the right direction as this was supposed to be his first fight in the UFC a year ago anyways...

Good luck and enjoy the fights tonight...

PatsFan1283 · Apr 17, 2021

I saw Arlovski fight live 15.5 yrs ago vs Paul Buentello, lasted 11 seconds or something. He was the champ at the time, he had a great look/marketability for champ but obviously just gatekeeper. Can't believe he's still fighting.

I think Whittaker is just better than Gastelum at everything besides maybe hand speed and Gastelum's so small for MW not sure it matters. I got Whittaker +220 to TKO/KO as I think fight is gonna be entirely standup and that line is just inflated based on recent history of Whittaer's fights always going the distance (similar to Woodley/Till when Woodley had a bunch of decisions but stylistically that fight was made to end faster)

Maybe I'll parlay Whittaker with Gravely too.

Drakkar seems solid too for a boring, grind type of win. Stephens getting old, 34 is up there for lower weight classes and he's got a lot of mileage on him.

What abut Drakkar by decision? He's probably not gonna get him outta there, right?

MattyMatt · Apr 17, 2021

Drakkar by decision if he wins is what I would think, however, after Stephens clown show at the weigh-ins yesterday, I know Klose would love to finish him, but that’s the wrong game plan to go after imo. He stays composed and he wins this...

Whittaker used to fight at 170 as well, Thompson KO’ing his ass is still lovely to me...

I don’t think Whittaker does anything well, honestly, if Gastelum shows up like I know he can and doesn’t come out with the idgaf attitude he’s came with before, he puts Whittaker away...

MattyMatt · Apr 17, 2021

Klose is out!!! That fucks up the whole night, and big time on DK too. Big fat 0...

I seriously doubt it has anything to do with it, but this is why Stephens pushing him for no reason is a major clown move too, he gets hurt, fight gets scrapped...

PatsFan1283 · Apr 17, 2021

yeah sucks, I bet it

need Gravely ITD to soften the blow

MattyMatt · Apr 17, 2021

Probably take that money and throw it on Gastelum +235 and by KO/TKO +450

MattyMatt · Apr 17, 2021

PatsFan1283 said:
yeah sucks, I bet it

need Gravely ITD to soften the blow

Just turned that into a 2 unit play as well...

PatsFan1283 · Apr 17, 2021

MattyMatt said:
Klose is out!!! That fucks up the whole night, and big time on DK too. Big fat 0...

I seriously doubt it has anything to do with it, but this is why Stephens pushing him for no reason is a major clown move too, he gets hurt, fight gets scrapped...

If you email DK with something basic like "Hey I like the MMA product, big fan but I really got screwed on XYZ" then decent chance they will refund you. Not a lock or anything but more likely than not.

MattyMatt · Apr 17, 2021

PatsFan1283 said:
If you email DK with something basic like "Hey I like the MMA product, big fan but I really got screwed on XYZ" then decent chance they will refund you. Not a lock or anything but more likely than not.

I tried last year, they told me to kick rocks. I almost stopped playing. I’ve been doing really well lately and actually making coin every event, so I went bigger tonight, go figure...

PatsFan1283 · Apr 17, 2021

Was that pre-covid? My friend said they're pretty good about it in the covid era. Worth a shot.

MattyMatt · Apr 17, 2021

PatsFan1283 said:
Was that pre-covid? My friend said they're pretty good about it in the covid era. Worth a shot.

I just sent them another one to see what they say. I’ve seen a ton of people complaining about it on other platforms tonight...

I’ll report back...

And yes, first time was pre-Covid...

MattyMatt · Apr 17, 2021

Easy WINNA with Gravely!!

Put your kids in wrestling, let them grind everything in life...

PatsFan1283 · Apr 17, 2021

Seemed over rd 1, ref def like that go a bit

nice call

MattyMatt · Apr 17, 2021

WOW! Klose has made a statement that it was the push at the weigh-ins that canceled the fight and it’s all documented with the UFC doctors and staff! He should get Stephens purse and Stephens should be fined even further...

Said it was a clown move and could cost them tremendously, and it did...

MattyMatt · Apr 17, 2021

Another easy WINNA with Meerschaert and by sub too!

PatsFan1283 · Apr 17, 2021

Wow sick call on Meerschert, I bet it small last second but I didn't bet the sub

MM stupid question but do you have any take on the Jake Paul fight tonight? Askren steamed down to -147 and I'll probably bet it for a sweat, Askren is a horrible striker going to a different sport and he's post-hip surgery. I know this kid is off youtube but line seemed low. Then again, I have no clue.

Also, Askren seems very willing to take a check and go home.

MattyMatt · Apr 17, 2021

PatsFan1283 said:
Wow sick call on Meerschert, I bet it small last second but I didn't bet the sub

MM stupid question but do you have any take on the Jake Paul fight tonight? Askren steamed down to -147 and I'll probably bet it for a sweat, Askren is a horrible striker going to a different sport and he's post-hip surgery. I know this kid is off youtube but line seemed low. Then again, I have no clue.

Also, Askren seems very willing to take a check and go home.

I wish Askren would double leg to fireman’s carry to dropping Paul’s douche bag ass right on his neck for the DQ if it was up to me...

He may do a little better than expected, but Paul should pull away in the end.

I think Cunningham smashes Mir, though...

MattyMatt · Apr 17, 2021

Waiting to hear from Dk, absolutely killing it like I thought I would right now, had Hubbard, Meerschaert, and Gravely...

95, 101, and 138 points...lol

UFC on ESPN 22: Whittaker vs Gastelum

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