Nfl 2021-2022 football season previews-news-notes-picks-rumors !

CNOTES · Jul 17, 2021

Friday’s Den: Wrapping up the first 20 picks of the NFL Draft

— First job tonight was to decide which channel to watch the draft on; NFL Network had a concert on, ESPN had four or five commercials for the NBA. No bueno; back to the Extra Innings package until they start picking players.

— There were reports this afternoon that Aaron Rodgers wants the Packers to trade him, which would be tumultuous.

— Quick reminder that the NFL season is now 17 games long.

— There are tons of people outside on a rainy night in Cleveland to watch all this draft stuff happen; having the draft in Las Vegas seems like a much better idea.

— Well, ESPN made the decision for me; they have Mike Greenberg hosting their coverage, so it is off to the NFL Network.

— It is 8:10 and there is still a damn band playing in Cleveland; start the draft!!! In happier news, Kris Bryant just doubled for the Cubs/Armadillos. Cubs lead 4-0 in the third.

— Jacksonville Jaguars are on the clock; Urban Meyer is their new coach. You get the feeling this is an all-or-nothing deal for Meyer, he’ll either win really big or he won’t finish his first season. Whatever, thanks for the Jaguars for getting him off of TV, where he was terrible- zero personality.

— Why is Jacksonville taking the whole 10:00 to make their pick?

— Eric Lauer is pitching for Milwaukee tonight, his first start of the year. Lauer is 14-19, 4.75 in 57 career games (54 starts), but he is 5-0, 2.11 in seven starts against the Dodgers, which makes no sense.

— Daniel Jeremiah just said that when the Jets upset the Rams last year, which put the Jaguars in position to pick first in this draft, that Jacksonville sold a ton of season tickets right after. Its the least the Rams could do for Jacksonville- they traded star CB Jalen Ramsey to the Rams.

— OK, now that Trevor Lawrence is a Jaguar, how long before he starts?

— Jets have a new coach, they traded their QB, they have the #2 pick. Everyone in their draft room has a suit jacket on; things in Jacksonville were way more casual.

With the #2 pick, Gang Green selects Zach Wilson; going from BYU to New Jersey qualifies as worlds colliding.

Someone just called Wilson “…….borderline cocky” Hmmmmm

There is a woman in a Jets sweatshirt sitting in an easy chair behind Roger Goodell’s pedestal.

— It irritates me when I hear an analyst say “He’s a winner” because for every winner, there has to be a loser, and I don’t think anyone is pre-ordained to be a loser.

— 49ers have the third pick in the draft; they take QB Trey Lance, who started 17 games for a I-AA team, playing only one game last year for North Dakota State. Carson Wentz also played for the Bison; what does this mean for Jimmy Garoppolo?

North Dakota State has a third QB in the NFL, Easton Stick, who is a backup with the Chargers, or at least he was before they got Chase Daniel. Must be a fun time to recruit quarterbacks at North Dakota State.

— Great stat they just said on TV; last ten QB’s to win the Super Bowl all threw 1,200+ passes in college; Trey Lance threw 318.

— Atlanta Falcons take TE Kyle Pitts with the 4th pick; his college coach Dan Mullen is sitting there in the draft room with him, getting some free TV time. Matt Ryan must like this pick.

Pitts is the highest drafted tight end ever.

— Bengals take Ja’Marr Chase, the LSU WR who didn’t play last year; he is reunited with his old LSU QB Joe Burrow. Explosive receiver; opting out of last year didn’t cost him any money.

— When was last time the first five picks all went to players on the offensive side of the ball?

— Miami has the 6th pick; they take WR Jaylen Waddle from Alabama, the second WR in row who was wearing sunglasses backstage. Chase took his shades off when he went on stage; Waddle kept his on. Six offensive players in a row, which ties the all-time record.

We are told that Waddle is very fast, a good feature for a WR. Are there slow WR’s?

— Detroit Lions are on the clock; they have a new everything- coach, GM, QB. They’ve won one playoff game in the Super Bowl era; that’s 55 years.

Lions were very good in the 1950’s; they won three titles back then, before I was alive.

People in Detroit’s draft room are hugging each other like they just won the Super Bowl, so they got someone they didn’t think they’d get- OT Penei Sewell from Oregon, which has to make Jared Goff a happier guy. Quarterbacks need their blind side protected.

— Carolina Panthers take CB Jaycee Horn with the 8th pick, the first defensive player taken; he is described as “chippy, competitive; talks a lot on the field”

— 87-year old Bob Uecker still does commercials on Brewers’ TV in Milwaukee for Usinger’s, a sausage company; he is an amazing guy, so funny. Still does Brewers’ home games on the radio.

— Denver Broncos are up next; they take a CB from Alabama whose dad also played in the NFL. Guess they’re serious about starting Teddy Bridgewater at QB this fall, though I also just read a thing on the Interweb about Denver trading for Aaron Rodgers.

They just showed Justin Fields’ family on TV, sitting at home; his parents don’t look happy. Someone needs to tell them that there were six QB’s taken in the 1983 Draft, and Dan Marino was #6 of the six, so you never know what the future will hold.

Yup, Dan Marino was 27th pick in the draft, which is why this is a fascinating process.

They also showed Alabama QB Mac Jones, sitting by himself in the draft room with his phone, probably wondering “Who the bleep told me to come here?!?!?!”

— Dallas Cowboys are on the clock; they traded the pick to Philadelphia, who take DeVonta Smith, the Alabama WR who is also reunited with his college QB, Jalen Hurts.

Not often two division rivals make a trade like that; Eagles only moved up two slots, but they bypassed the Giants, who may have wanted Smith.

— Cowboys got a third round pick to drop back two slots.

— Giants traded the #11 pick to Chicago, which takes Ohio State QB Justin Fields, bad news for Andy Dalton/Nick Foles.

— Dallas finally gets to pick; they take a LB from Penn State, which means Stephen Jones made the pick, not his father, who prefers flashier choices.

— Damn, to drop back nine slots in the draft, Giants got:

— 5th round pick (164th overall) in this draft.

— Bears 4th round pick 2022.

— Bears’ first round pick in 2022.

Seems like a pretty good haul, if they connect with those picks.

— Chargers have a new coach and a young QB; they took a tackle from Northwestern; when you have a good, young QB, you make sure he is well-protected.

— Lot of trades; Jets traded with Minnesota to move up from #23 to #14- they took Alijah Vera-Tucker, a guard from USC. You draft a young QB, you make sure he is well-protected.

— Patriots take QB Mac Jones from Alabama, who was expected to go a lot higher. Belichick and Nick Saban are good friends, so this makes sense.

— With the 16th pick, Arizona Cardinals take Zaven Collins, a LB from Tulsa.

— This is the first time I can remember where the draft was held before the schedule for next year was released- that comes out May 12. Seriously, for like an hour, I put everything aside as soon as the schedule comes out.

I get my second vaccination May 14; when I get home from that, I’ll be looking online for flights and hotel rooms for my first vacation in two years. Have to pick a good NFL weekend, or maybe even two weekends; we’ll see. Football weekends in Las Vegas are lot of fun.

— Las Vegas Raiders took a tackle from Alabama; lot of Crimson Tide guys getting picked.

— Miami Dolphins are picking again; they take a defensive end from Miami FL, who apparently returned punts for his high school team. Must be a very good athlete.

Last year, only 34% of players in the NFL were guys drafted in Rounds 1-3; the GM/scouts are so important in pro football. Thats why Saturday is a very important day- you can find diamonds in the rough at the end of the draft, guys who make a big difference.

— Washington takes a LB from Kentucky; they had taken a defensive lineman in the first round the previous four years, so at least they change things up some.

Washington needs to come up with a nickname, an actual mascot. It can’t be that difficult; as a matter of fact, I’ll do it for them— Washington RedTails, honoring pilots from World War II.

They made a movie about the RedTails; they could keep everything pretty much the same, the team song, the colors, all that. Simple stuff.

— Last item of the night, then I’m off to write the baseball article; with the #20 pick, Giants take Kadarius Toney, a WR from Florida. Graphic says “inconsistent hands” always a solid quality for a receiver.

Oy.

I’ll be back tomorrow, with more of this jocularity. Guy I used to know made fun of me because I like watching the draft; it was freakin’ rude, because we all like different stuff, and that’s what makes life interesting.

CNOTES · Jul 17, 2021

Friday’s Den: Schedule notes for NFC teams

Cardinals:
— Three primetime games, all at home.
— Three of first four games are on the road.
— Their last game outdoors is Week 13,

Falcons:
— Play Jets in England in Week 6, have the early Week 6 bye
— Only prime-time game is Week 11 vs New England.
— January 2nd in Buffalo could be dicey for a dome team.

Panthers:
— Sam Darnold faces his old team (Jets) in Week 1.
— Week 3 at Houston is their only primetime game.
— Play division rival Buccaneers in weeks 16/18.

Bears:
— Their odd-numbered games are all on road, even-numbered games all at home
— Three of their four primetime games are on road.
— Play division rival Vikings in weeks 15/18.

Cowboys:
— Play three straight weeks on road, in weeks 13-15.
— Three of their last five games are NFC East road games.
— Have four primetime games, plus they play the Raiders on Thanksgiving.

Lions:
— Only primetime game is week 2 at Green Bay
— Lions visit Rams and old friend Matthew Stafford in week 7.
— Road games at Green Bay/Chicago are in September; they visit Denver in Week 14.

Packers:
— Play primetime games in weeks 2-3, have five night games overall.
— Host Detroit in Week 2, don’t visit the Lions until Week 18.
— Have only six 1:00 games; lot of national TV dates.

Rams:
— First two games are against teams with new QB’s this season.
— Jared Goff and Lions visit in Week 7
— Host Arizona in Week 4, then have Thursday game in Seattle four days later.

Vikings:
— Three of last five games are at night, including games in Chicago/Green Bay.
— Don’t play Bears until Week 15, then play ‘em again in Week 18.
— Host old friend Kevin Stefanski when Browns visit in Week 4.

Saints:
— In Weeks 12-16, play night games four weeks out of five.
— Have five primetime games, only four 4:00 games. Nine 1:00 games.
— Week 6 bye is an early one.

Giants:
— Have three primetime games, all on the road.
— Visit Washington in Week 2, don’t see them again until Week 18.
— Have consecutive December road games in Miami, Los Angeles.

Eagles:
— Five of their last six games are divisional games.
— Play consecutive weeks (12/13) in the Meadowlands, vs Giants/Jets
— Have only two primetime games.

49ers:
— Open @ Detroit/@ Philly; will they just stay east for the week?
— Host Falcons in Week 15, have Week 16 Thursday game in Nashville.
— Got good draw with their 17th game against the Bengals.

Seahawks:
— Play three of first four games on the road.
— Weeks 5-7 are all night games.
— Five of their eight road games are in domes.

Buccaneers:
— Tom Brady takes the Bucs into Foxboro in Week 4.
— Only six 1:00 games; three of them are Weeks 16-18.
— Play division rival Carolina in Weeks 16/18.

Washington:
— Weeks 14-17: Dallas/Philly/Dallas/Philly.
— Play Giants in Week 2, then not again until the season finale.
— Ron Rivera visits his old team (Carolina) in Week 11

CNOTES · Jul 17, 2021

Thursday’s Den: Quick thoughts on the 2021 NFL schedule

I’ll have more on the NFL schedule over the next few days, but here are some early thoughts on the 2021 schedule:

— NFL teams will play 17 games this season for the first time; exhibition games have been reduced to three. AFC teams get the extra home game this season.

— Regular season ends January 9th, with games in Buffalo and Cleveland. Have fun!!!

— Jets traded QB Sam Darnold to Carolina this winter; the wise guys who create the schedule created an interesting Week 1 matchup, Jets @ Carolina. Go figure, a coincidence I’m sure.

— Christmas is on a Saturday, Halloween is a Sunday this year; there are two Christmas games. Browns-Packers, Colts-Cardinals. Which casino will I be watching those games in?

— This has nothing to do with football, but Halloween weekend in Las Vegas is tremendous, take my word on that.

— Cowboys-Buccaneers is the Week 1 Thursday game, where the defending champ traditionally opens the next season at home. Home team is 15-3 SU in this game the last 18 years, 11-3-4 against the spread.

— Don’t think the NFL foresees Aaron Rodgers being traded to Denver; Broncos have one game on in prime-time, Green Bay has five.

— NFL doesn’t think much of the Patriots; only three primetime games, one of which is Tom Brady’s return to Foxboro in Week 4.

— Thanksgiving Day slate:
Bears @ Detroit, Raiders @ Dallas, Bills @ New Orleans

— Non-schedule news; Green Bay signed backup QB Blake Bortles, re-uniting him with OC Nathaniel Hackett- they worked together in Jacksonville from 2015-18.

— Division rivals Carolina/Tampa Bay have their two meetings in weeks 16/18.

— I’m totally befuddled that Rams-Lions isn’t a primetime game. Detroit got one game on in primetime, at Green Bay in Week 2. Very surprised by this, seeing how the teams swapped quarterbacks this winter. ESPN obviously didn’t want the game.

Every team got at least one primetime game; eight teams got just one.

— Four teams have the earliest byes, Week 6— Falcons, Saints, Jets, 49ers.

— Four teams have the latest byes, Week 14— Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, Eagles.

— Nine teams got the maximum five primetime games.

— Cardinals/Chargers have three prime-time games, all at home, which is odd. Giants got three primetime games, all on the road— they can’t be real happy about that.

I’ll have some notes for each team’s schedule over the next week or so; season doesn’t start until September 9, so there is plenty of time.

CNOTES · Jul 17, 2021

10) Seven NFL teams have new head coaches this season.

13 teams have new offensive coordinators, 15 have new DC’s.

9) Last two seasons, Chargers were 7-16 in games decided by 8 or fewer points; they were only 9-7 in games they led at halftime, 9-5 in games they led after three quarters, which is why they now have a new coach.

8) Since 2012, Jacksonville Jaguars are 39-105, five fewer wins than any other team (Cleveland).

There is some hope for the Jaguars; of the last seven head coaches to jump from college to the NFL, three of them made the playoffs in their first season.

7) Las Vegas Raiders have had one winning season in last 18 years; never thought I’d see them become one of the NFL’s worst franchises. Over last four years, Raiders ranked 29-30-31-28 in defensive efficiency. Not good.

6) Will having fans back in their stadium help the Minnesota Vikings?

From 2016-19, Vikings were 21-9-3 ATS at home; last year, they were 2-6 ATS.

5) Over last three years, Eagles are 10-18 ATS as a favorite, 7-11 as an underdog. Under is 17-7 in their home games, over 14-7 in their road tilts.

4) Detroit Lions were 14-34 SU last three years; they haven’t won a playoff game since 1991. Last three years, over is 21-10 in their games. Lions are 8-15-1 ATS in last 24 home games.

3) Carolina Panthers have a +12 advantage in rest days between games this season, the most any NFL team has had since 2002.

2) Cowboys play Atlanta in Week 10; figures to be an interesting game, with former Falcons coach Dan Quinn now the defensive coordinator in Dallas. Quinn went 43-42 in 5+ years as Atlanta’s coach, winning the NFC title in 2016. Falcons lost that Super Bowl, blowing 28-3 lead.

CNOTES · Jul 17, 2021

Monday’s Den: Early season trends for AFC teams

Ravens:
— Won/covered last five season openers
— Won last four season openers by combined 164-19.
— 11-5 ATS in last 16 home openers.
— Under 6-2 last eight home openers.
— Won/covered four of last five road openers.
— Over 9-4-1 last 14 road openers.

Bills:
— Home team won their last six Week 1 games.
— 9-5 ATS last 14 home openers.
— 6-2 ATS as a favorite in home openers.
— 11-8 ATS in last 19 road openers.
— Under 10-7 last 17 road openers.
— Were favored once in last 17 road openers (0-1 ATS)

Bengals:
— Started out 1-0 four of last seven years.
— Won/covered once in last five home openers.
— 3-6-1 ATS as favorite in home openers.
— Under 9-4 last 13 home openers.
— 6-1 ATS last seven road openers.
— Over 9-2 last 11 road openers.

Browns:
— 2-19-1 SU in season openers (1-1-1 last three)
— 5-4 ATS in last 9 home openers, after 1-12 stretch.
— 0-6 ATS all-time as favorite in home openers.
— Over 5-2 last seven home opener.
— 3-5-1 ATS last nine road openers.
— Last five road openers stayed under total.

Broncos:
— Lost last two home openers, both 16-14, after a 27-2 run.
— Last five home openers were decided by total of 11 points.
— 8-4 ATS last dozen home openers.
— Over 8-5-1 last 14 home openers.
— Lost last four road openers, scoring 16.8 ppg.
— 7-10 ATS last 17 road openers.

Texans:
— Lost three of last four home openers, scoring 14.5 ppg.
— 1-5 ATS last six home openers.
— Under 10-6 last 16 home openers.
— Lost five of last six road openers.
— Under 5-1 last six road openers.
— 3-1-1 all-time ATS as favorite in road openers.

Colts:
— Started out 0-1 the last seven years.
— Last five season openers went over total.
— Won last two home openers, covered 3 of last 4.
— Lost nine of last 11 road openers.
— Four of last five road openers went over.
— 4-12-2 ATS last 18 games as underdog in road openers.

Jaguars:
— Won season openers three of last four years.
— Hasn’t been favored in their home opener since 2010.
— Lost seven of last nine home openers.
— Last five home openers went over total.
— Lost 11 of last 13 road openers, but covered last four.
— Under is 12-6 in last 18 road openers.

Chiefs:
— Won last six season openers, covered last four.
— Last five years, scored 33-42-38-40-34 in Week 1.
— Won last five home openers, covered last four.
— Over 4-0-2 last six home openers.
— Won/covered six of last eight road openers.
— Over 4-2 last six road openers.

Raiders:
— Won four of last five season openers.
— Won three of last four home openers.
— 3-6 ATS last 9 tries as a favorite in home openers.
— Over 5-2 last seven home openers.
— 10-3-1 ATS last 14 road openers.
— Since 1997, they’re 1-3 ATS as a favorite in road openers.

Chargers:
— 4-6 ATS last 10 tries as a favorite in home openers.
— Lost three of last four home openers SU.
— Over 14-4 last 18 home openers.
— 6-2-1 ATS last nine road openers.
— 4-0-1 ATS last five Week 1 road games.
— 10-5-1 ATS as an underdog in road openers.

Dolphins:
— Lost four of last six season openers.
— Won/covered six of last nine home openers
— Favored in only 6 of last 17 home openers.
— Over 11-1 last dozen home openers.
— 5-12 SU in last 17 road openers (5-3 ATS last 8)
— Since 1994, under is 22-5 in their road openers (12-0 last 12)

Patriots:
— Started 1-0 in 15 of last 17 seasons.
— Won 7 of last 8 home openers (4-1 ATS last five)
— Under 7-2 last nine home openers.
— Won 7 of last 10 road openers.
— 15-9 ATS last 24 road openers.
— Over 5-2 last seven road openers.

Jets:
— Started 0-1 four of last five years.
— Since 1992, 3-10-1 ATS as favorite in home opener.
— Lost four of last five home openers SU.
— Under 3-1 last four home openers.
— 11-4 ATS in last 15 road openers.
— Over 5-2 last seven road openers.

Steelers:
— Opened on road last six years (3-2-1 SU, 2-3-1 ATS)
— Favored in 19 of last 20 home openers (W15-9, +1.5 in ’10)
— 15-3 SU last 18 home openers (0-3 ATS last three)
— Under 8-4 last dozen home openers.
— 3-1-1 SU last five road openers.
— Under is 7-1 in last eight road openers.

Titans:
— Lost SU last three times they opened season at home.
— 2-5 SU last seven home openers (2-7 ATS last nine)
— Under 6-3 last nine home openers.
— Won 7 of last 8 road openers SU
— Since 2007, 9-1 ATS as underdog in road opener.
— Over 3-1 last four road openers.

CNOTES · Jul 17, 2021

Tuesday’s Den: Week 1-2 trends for NFC teams

Cardinals:
— 1-3-1 in last five Week 1 games.
— 0-4-1 in last five home openers.
— Under 7-2 last nine home openers.
— 10-3 ATS last 13 road openers.
— 1-4 SU last five road openers.
— Under 10-5 last 15 road openers.

Falcons:
— 1-4 in last five Week 1 games.
— 17-5 ATS in last 22 home openers.
— Since 2004, 8-1 ATS as a favorite in HO’s.
— Over 4-1 last five home openers.
— Lost last three road openers.
— 5-12 ATS last 17 road openers (under 13-4).

Panthers:
— Host Sam Darnold’s old team (Jets) in Week 1.
— Last 2 years, lost 30-27/34-30 at home in Week 1.
— 6-11-1 ATS last 18 home openers.
— Under 16-6-1 last 23 home openers.
— 4-8 ATS last dozen road openers.
— Over 4-1 last five road openers.

Bears:
— 1-6 in last seven Week 1 games.
— 2-5 SU/ATS last seven home openers.
— Under 4-0 last four home openers.
— 4-6 last ten road openers.
— 2-4 ATS last six road openers.
— Under 16-5 last 21 road openers.

Cowboys:
— Under 5-2 last seven Week 1 games.
— Won last four home openers, scoring 35-40 points in last two.
— Over 8-6 last 14 home openers.
— Lost three of last four road openers.
— 10-4 ATS last 14 games as an underdog in road openers.
— Under 6-3 last nine road openers.

Lions:
— Last ten season openers went over the total.
— 0-2-1 SU last three season openers (favored in all 3)
— Lost four of last six home openers.
— Over 8-3 last 11 home openers.
— 3-6 ATS last nine road openers.
— Five of last six road openers went over.

Packers:
— Won last six season openers (5-1 ATS)
— Over 7-3 last ten season openers.
— Won 8 in row, 13 of last 14 home openers (11-3 ATS)
— Under 3-1 last four home openers.
— Won/covered last four Week 1 road games.
— Over 12-3 last 15 road openers.

Rams:
— Under McVay, Rams are 4-0 SU in Week 1.
— Won/covered last six home openers.
— Under is 4-1 in last five home openers.
— Under McVay, Rams are 4-0 in road openers, covering last three
— Last four road openers, Rams scored 41-33-30-37 points.
— Over is 3-1 in last four road openers.

Vikings:
— This is first time in 5 years they open on road.
— Won/covered four of last five Week 1 games.
— Won/covered five of last six home openers.
— Under is 6-1 in last seven home openers.
— 0-3-1 SU, 0-4 ATS last four road openers.
— Under 12-5 last 17 road openers.

Giants:
— Started nine of last ten seasons 0-1.
— 1-8 SU, 0-9 ATS last nine home openers.
— Scored 14.2 ppg in last five home openers.
— Under 7-0 last seven home openers.
— Lost 9 of last 11 road openers (3-7-1 ATS)
— Under 4-1 last five road openers.

Saints:
— Lost five of last seven season openers.
— 1-5 ATS in last six home openers.
— Last 3 years, scored 40-30-34 points in home opener.
— Last five home openers went over total.
— 3-12 ATS in last 15 road openers.
— Over 9-4 last 13 road openers.

Eagles:
— Won four of last five season openers.
— Won four of last five home openers.
— Won 5 of last 7 Week 1 games on road.
— Despite that, are 3-9 ATS in last 12 home openers.
— Lost last 3 road openers, giving up 27-24-27 points.
— Over 7-4-1 last dozen road openers.

49ers:
— Won 8 of last 10 season openers.
— Under 6-1 last seven season openers.
— Won 7 of last 10 home openers (0-4 ATS last four)
— Under 6-1 last seven home openers.
— Last 2 years, won road opener 31-17/31-13.
— Under 7-4-1 last dozen road openers.

Seahawks:
— Split last six season openers SU.
— Won 17 of last 18 home openers (14-4 ATS)
— Under 16-3-1 last 20 home openers.
— Won last 2 road openers 28-26/38-25, after losing 11 of previous 12.
— 3-12-1 ATS in last 16 road openers.
— Over 5-2 last seven road openers.

Buccaneers:
— Won three of last four Week 1 games.
— Four of last five Week 1 games went over.
— Won/covered three of last four home openers.
— Scored 27+ points in four of last five home openers.
— 7-4 ATS in last 11 road openers.
— Over 4-1 in last five road openers.

Washington:
— Covered last three Week 1 games.
— 1-4 ATS in last five home openers as a dog.
— 2-7 SU in last nine home openers.
— Over 7-3 last ten home openers.
— Covered four of last five road openers.
— Over is 8-4 in last dozen road openers.

CNOTES · Jul 18, 2021

5) Brandon Staley is the new head coach of the Chargers; five years ago, he was the defensive coordinator at John Carroll U, a D-3 program in Ohio. Life moves fast…….

4) Last three years, New Jersey Jets are 5-19 SU on road, 8-16 ATS; last two years, Jets are 0-4 ATS as a favorite. This year they have a new coach and they figure to be starting a rookie QB, so it could be another long year, but at least one that could build to a positive future.

3) Vikings play their home games in a dome now, but their last two road games this year are at Chicago December 20, at Green Bay January 2nd, both night games. Brilliant scheduling.

2) When Jacksonville Jaguars visit Seattle on Halloween, Seahawks’ last two OC’s will be in the visitors’ coaching booth. Brian Schottenheimer, Darren Bevell both work for the Jaguars now; do they have any special insight into defending Russell Wilson?

CNOTES · Jul 22, 2021

Thursday’s Den: First draft of my Week 1 NFL article

Dallas @ Tampa Bay
— Last 4 years, Cowboys are 5-9-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Dallas lost three of last four road openers SU.
— Cowboys are 10-4 ATS last 14 games as a dog in road openers.
— Under is 6-3 in their last nine road openers.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven Week 1 games.

— Defending Super Bowl champs are ATS in Week 1 the next year.
— Tampa Bay was 3-2-1 ATS LY as a home favorite.
— Buccaneers won three of last four Week 1 games.
— Bucs won/covered three of last four home openers.
— Tampa scored 27+ points in four of last five home openers.
— Four of their last five Week 1 games went over.

— Dallas won 7 of last 8 series games.
— Cowboys lost 3 of last 5 visits here, scoring 6-0-7 points in losses.
— Favorites are 5-2 ATS in last seven series games.

****************************

Sunday games

Pittsburgh @ Buffalo
— Steelers opened on road last six years (3-2-1 SU, 2-3-1 ATS)
— Steelers are 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as road underdogs.
— Pittsburgh is 3-1-1 SU last five road openers.
— Under is 7-1 in their last eight road openers.

— Bills are 11-6 ATS in last 17 games as home favorites.
— Home team won their last six Week 1 games.
— Bills are 9-5 ATS last 14 home openers.
— Buffalo is 6-2 ATS as a favorite in home openers.

— Crowd should be mixed for this game; tough day for security guards.
— Bills beat Pittsburgh last two years, after losing previous six meetings.
— Steelers gained only 224 yards, lost 26-15 here LY; Buffalo scored on pick-6.
— Pittsburgh won four of last five visits to Orchard Park.

NJ Jets @ Carolina
— Jets have new coach, new QB.
— Jets started 0-1 four of last five years.
— Last five years, Gang Green is 10-22-2 ATS as road dogs.
— Jets are 11-4 ATS in last 15 road openers.
— Over 5-2 last seven road openers.

— Last 2 years, Panthers lost 30-27/34-30 at home in Week 1.
— Last 5 years, Carolina is 10-16 ATS as a home favorite.
— Panthers are 6-11-1 ATS last in 18 home openers.
— Under 16-6-1 last 23 home openers.

— Sam Darnold played 3 years for the Jets, going 13-25 as their QB.
— Panthers are 3-2 in last five series games, scoring 30+ in all three wins.
— Jets lost 30-20/30-3 in last two visits to Charlotte.

Philadelphia @ Atlanta
— New coach; 2nd-year QB started four games (1-3) LY.
— Eagles won four of last five season openers.
— Last 5 years, Eagles are 12-13 ATS as road underdogs.
— Philly won 5 of last 7 Week 1 games on road.
— Over 7-4-1 in their last dozen road openers.

— New coach, new GM for Atlanta.
— Last 5 years, Falcons are 15-18 ATS as home favorites.
— Falcons lost four of last five Week 1 games.
— Atlanta is 17-5 ATS in last 22 home openers.
— Since 2004, Falcons are 8-1 ATS as a favorite in HO’s.
— Over is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five home openers.

— Eagles are 11-5 in last 16 series games.
— Philly lost last three visits here, by 4-2-4 points.
— For what its worth, Matt Ryan is from Philadelphia

Minnesota @ Cincinnati
— Last three years, Vikings are 6-3 ATS as road favorites.
— Minnesota won/covered four of last five Week 1 games.
— Vikings are 0-3-1 SU, 0-4 ATS last four road openers.
— This is first time in 5 years Vikings open on road.
— Under 12-5 in their last 17 road openers.

— Cincinnati started out 1-0 four of last seven years.
— Bengals are 8-7-1 ATS last 16 games as home dogs.
— Cincy won/covered once in last five home openers.
— Bengals are 3-6-1 ATS as favorite in home openers.
— Under is 9-4 in their last 13 home openers.

— Coach Zimmer was Bengals’ DC from 2008-13.
— Home side won last four series games.
— Vikings lost last two visits here, 42-14/37-8.

San Francisco @ Detroit
— Last 2 years, 49ers won road opener 31-17/31-13.
— 49ers won 8 of last 10 season openers.
— Niners are 5-3 ATS last eight games as road favorite.
— Under 6-1 last seven season openers.
— Under 7-4-1 last dozen road openers.

— New coach, new GM, new QB for Lions.
— Pretty sure Detroit will try hard to run ball a lot.
— 0-2-1 SU last three season openers (favored in all 3)
— Lost four of last six home openers.
— Over 8-3 last 11 home openers.
— Lions’ last ten season openers went over the total.

— 49ers won 8 of last 9 series games.
— Favorites are 4-0-1 ATS in last five series games.
— Niners won 2 of last 3 visits here, losing 32-15 in last visit, in 2015.

Arizona @ Tennessee
— Arizona is 1-3-1 SU in last five Week 1 games.
— Cardinals lost 4 of last 5 road openers SU, but covered 10 of last 13.
— Last 2 years, Arizona is 6-3-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Under 10-5 last 15 road openers.

— Tennessee lost SU last three times they opened season at home.
— Titans are 2-5 SU last seven home openers (2-7 ATS last nine)
— Last five years, Tennessee is 14-11-2 ATS as home favorites.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine home openers.

— Arizona won three of last four series games.
— Titans lost last meeting 12-7 in desert in 2017.
— Redbirds split last two visits here; Tennessee gained 460-531 TY, though.

Seattle @ Indianapolis
— Seahawks split last six season openers SU.
— Seattle is 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games as road underdogs.
— Seattle won last 2 road openers 28-26/38-25, after losing 11 of previous 12.
— Seahawks are 3-12-1 ATS in last 16 road openers.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven road openers.

— Colts started out 0-1 the last seven years.
— First game for Carson Wentz as a Colt.
— Last three years, Indy is 9-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Won last two home openers, covered 3 of last 4.
— Last five season openers went over total.

— Colts won three of last five series games.
— Seattle lost 34-28/34-17 in last two visits here.
— Seahawks won last meeting 46-18 at home, in 2017.

LA Chargers @ Washington
— New coach, new OC for Chargers.
— Bolts are 8-4-2 ATS last 14 games as road favorites.
— Chargers are 4-0-1 ATS last five Week 1 road games.
— Bolts are 6-2-1 ATS last nine road openers
— Bolts are 10-5-1 ATS as underdogs in road openers.

— QB Fitzpatrick gets to start for another NFL team.
— Washington is 4-7 ATS in last 11 games as home underdogs.
— Washington covered last three Week 1 games.
— Washington is 1-4 ATS in last five home openers as a dog.
— Washington is 2-7 SU in last nine home openers.
— Over is 7-3 in their last ten home openers.

— Chargers won four of last five series games.
— Bolts split last two visits here, losing last visit, in 2013.

Jacksonville @ Houston
— First NFL game for Urban Meyer figures to be interesting.
— Jaguars won season openers three of last four years.
— Last 3 years, Jacksonville is 8-12-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Jaguars lost 11 of last 13 road openers, but covered last four.
— Under is 12-6 in their last 18 road openers.

— HC Culley is also new head coach; he’s never been a coordinator.
— Texans are 9-14-1 ATS last 24 games as home favorites.
— Texans lost three of last four home openers, scoring 14.5 ppg.
— Houston is 1-5 ATS in last six home openers.
— Under 10-6 in their last 16 home openers.

— Texans won last six series games.
— Jaguars are 6-3 ATS in last nine visits to Houston.
— Two guys who have never been NFL head coaches before.

Cleveland @ Kansas City
— Browns are 2-19-1 SU in season openers (1-1-1 last three)
— Last 5 years, Cleveland is 12-19-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Browns are 3-5-1 ATS last nine road openers.
— Last five road openers stayed under total.

— Chiefs won last six season openers, covered last four.
— Last five years, they scored 33-42-38-40-34 in Week 1.
— Last four years, Chiefs are 20-14 ATS as home favorites.
— KC won last five home openers, covered last four.
— Over 4-0-2 in their last six home openers.

— Chiefs beat Cleveland 22-17 here in LY’s playoffs (led 19-3 at half).
— Chiefs won last four series games, three by 6 or fewer points.
— Browns covered last four visits to Arrowhead.

Miami @ New England
— Since 1994, under is 22-5 in Miami’s road openers (12-0 last 12)
— Dolphins lost four of last six season openers.
— Dolphins are 8-4 ATS in last dozen games as road underdogs.
— Miami is 5-12 SU in last 17 road openers (5-3 ATS last 8)

— Patriots started 1-0 in 15 of last 17 seasons.
— New England won 7 of last 8 home openers (4-1 ATS last five)
— Last five years, Patriots are 27-15-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Under 7-2 last nine home openers.

— These teams split their season series the last four years.
— New England covered first meeting the last six years.
— Dolphins lost 11 of last 12 visits to Foxboro (1-8 ATS last nine).

Green Bay @ New Orleans
— Green Bay won last six season openers (5-1 ATS)
— Packers are 5-3 ATS in last eight games as road underdogs.
— Green Bay won/covered last four Week 1 road games.
— Over is 12-3 in their last 15 road openers.

— Saints have new QB for first time since 2005.
— Last 3 years, Saints are 10-14 ATS as home favorites.
— New Orleans lost five of last seven season openers.
— Saints are 1-5 ATS in last six home openers.
— Last 3 years, scored 40-30-34 points in home opener.
— Saints lost five of last seven season openers.

— Teams split last eight series games.
— Packers won 37-20 here LY, their first win in last four visits to Superdome.

Denver @ NY Giants
— Denver lost last four road openers, scoring 16.8 ppg.
— Last 5 years, Broncos are 18-22 ATS on the road.
— Broncos are 7-10 ATS last 17 road openers.

— Giants started nine of last ten seasons 0-1.
— Last four years, Giants are 9-22-1 ATS at home.
— Big Blue is 1-8 SU, 0-9 ATS last nine home openers.
— Giants scored 14.2 ppg in last five home openers.
— Under 7-0 in their last seven home openers.

— Denver won three of last five series games.
— Broncos split last two series games played here.

Chicago @ LA Rams
— Chicago is 1-6 in last seven Week 1 games.
— Bears are 2-4 ATS last six road openers.
— Last five years, Chicago is 10-16-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Bears are 4-6 SU in last ten road openers.
— Under 16-5 in their last 21 road openers.

— First game for Stafford as Rams’ QB, after 12 years in Detroit.
— Rams also have a new defensive coordinator.
— Under McVay, Rams are 4-0 SU in Week 1.
— Rams won/covered last six home openers.
— Under McVay, LA is 14-12-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Under is 4-1 in last five home openers.

— First game with fans at SoFi Stadium.
— Bears won six of last nine series games, but lost 24-10 here LY.
— Chicago’s only TD in that game was scored by the defense.
— Bears lost three of last four road series games, losing by 14-10-21 points.

Baltimore @ Las Vegas
— Baltimore won/covered last five season openers
— Ravens won/covered four of last five road openers.
— Baltimore is 12-5-1 ATS in last 18 games as road favorites.
— Over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 road openers.

— Las Vegas won four of last five season openers.
— Raiders won three of last four home openers.
— Last three years, Raiders are 7-7 ATS as home underdogs.
— Las Vegas is 3-5 ATS in last eight tries as a dog in HO’s.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.

— First game with fans at Allegiant Stadium.
— Ravens won six of last eight series games.
— Ravens split last four trips to Oakland; this is their first visit to Las Vegas.
— Underdogs won three of last four series games SU. [/SIZE]

CNOTES · Jul 25, 2021

Sunday’s Den: Random NFL trends…….

NFL trends that may come in handy, later this year:

13) Vikings are 0-7 ATS in last 7 Monday night road games.
— Minnesota covered six of last seven games vs Detroit.
— Vikings are 0-6 ATS vs opponent coming off a bye.

12) Last three years, Giants are 18-6 ATS on road.
— Giants are 11-1 ATS as a road underdog of less than 7 points.
— Giants are 4-14 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog.

11) Jets are 0-6 ATS in last six games vs Miami.
— Last four years, Jets are 11-21-1 ATS on the road.

10) Dolphins are 6-10-1 ATS the week after playing New England.

9) Patriots covered five of last seven games against the Jets.
— New England is 8-1 ATS the week after playing the Jets.

8) Last three years, Eagles are 5-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Philly is 2-5 ATS in last seven games vs Dallas.

7) Pittsburgh started 11-0 LY, then lost five of last six games.
— Steelers had 56 sacks last year (most)
— Steelers allowed 14 sacks last year (least)

6) Last four years, 49ers are 5-13-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— 49ers covered once in their last six games with Arizona.

5) Seattle is 10-2-1 ATS in last 13 games with San Francisco.
— Seahawks are 9-2-2 ATS in last 13 games in Eastern time zone.

4) Tampa Bay is 2-9 ATS in last 11 Thursday games.
— Last four years, Buccaneers are 8-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.

3) It has been 16 years since the NFC East champ repeated the next season; Washington win the division last year.

2) Washington is 0-7 ATS in last seven Monday home games.
— Washington is 0-5 ATS the week after playing the Eagles.

1) Tennessee is 31-21 SU under Vrabel, but was outgained all three years.
— Last three years, Titans are 6-9-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Tennessee is 2-11 ATS the week after a Monday night game.

CNOTES · Jul 31, 2021

San Francisco 49ers 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Healthy Niners Offering Nice Betting Value

The 49ers were crushed by injuries last season, headlined by star DE Nick Bosa. His health is one of the keys to San Fran's return to prominence in 2021 and he seems to be right on schedule — but should you bet on him and the Niners this year?

No NFL team was more snake-bitten last year than the San Francisco 49ers. And it wasn’t just plight during a pandemic season either. The Niners were cursed with almost 162 games lost to ailments — without counting COVID-19.

Those injury issues make San Francisco the toughest team to peg down for the 2021 NFL season, coming off a 6-10 SU record and 7-9 ATS count. On paper, this is a deep and talented team in the deepest and most talented division. Is that enough for Niners bettors?

Here is our 2021 San Francisco 49ers NFL betting preview.

San Francisco 49ers futures odds
Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +1,400
To Win Conference +600
To Win Division +200
Season Win Total O/U 10.5 (Under -120)
To Make Playoffs Yes -160/No +140
Best futures bet: Make playoffs – Yes (-160)

As you can see from the above futures, bookies are giving plenty of respect to the Niners in 2021. But, with Kyle Shanahan’s injury track record and San Francisco’s QB situation (which is the worst among top contenders), it’s tough tying up money on this team for an entire season.

The playoff prop allows for wiggle room on the 49ers who, given their projected win total, should at least finish second in the NFC West. And that should be enough to make the tournament in 2021.

San Francisco 49ers betting overview

What will win bets: Defense

New defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans inherits a stop unit that ranked No. 6 overall in Football Outsiders DVOA. While that group did benefit from a run-heavy offense chewing up clock, the Niners were stingy versus the pass (allowing only 6.2 yards per pass attempt). They’ll benefit from Ryans’ more aggressive game plan, after registering only 30 sacks in 2020, but the health of DEs Nick Bosa and Dee Ford is the lynchpin.

What will lose bets: Quarterback
The Niners have a top-tier offensive line and plenty of rubber to burn in the ground game, but what happens when San Francisco has to pass the ball?

Of all the elite NFC contenders, San Francisco has the shakiest situation under center. Jimmy Garoppolo’s ripcord has a hair-trigger and FCS prodigy Trey Lance could be thrown into the deep end early on. That may be a big ask for a team giving the points most Sundays.

More Covers NFL betting analysis

Arizona Cardinals betting preview
Los Angeles Rams betting preview
Seattle Seahawks betting preview
The must-bet NFL games of 2021

San Francisco 49ers game-by-game odds

The 49ers are point spread favorites in 13 of their 17 games in 2021, and the potential to be the chalk in 15 outings with one pick’em and a Week 3 battle versus the Packers currently off the board. Kyle Shanahan is just 7-18-1 ATS as a favorite since taking over the head coach role in 2017. Woof.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 @ Detroit -7.5 46

2 @ Philadelphia -4 46

3 vs Green Bay OTB OTB

4 vs Seattle -3.5 46.5

5 @ Arizona PK 46.5

6 BYE

7 vs Indianapolis -4.5 46.5

8 @ Chicago -4 44.5

9 vs Arizona -5.5 47

10 vs L.A. Rams -3 45.5

11 @ Jacksonville -4 45.5

12 vs Minnesota -6.5 46.5

13 @ Seattle +1.5 45.5

14 @ Cincinnati -3.5 46

15 vs Atlanta -7.5 47.5

16 @ Tennessee -1 47

17 vs Houston -13.5 46

18 @ L.A. Rams +3 44.5

Early season forecast

The opening three weeks sets up San Francisco for a solid start to the season — at least in the win/loss column. Covering those spreads could be a tougher task.

The Niners open 2021 with back-to-back 1 p.m. ET (10 a.m. PT) road games. First up: a trip to Motown to face the Lions as 7.5-point favorites in Week 1. That half-point hook is sticking out like a sore thumb for a team working in two new coordinators. Under Shanahan, the 49ers are a dismal 1-7-1 ATS when giving a touchdown or more.

Week 2 sends San Francisco to the East Coast to face Philadelphia. Depending on how the Aaron Rodgers situation shakes down in Green Bay, this second straight road stop could be a lookahead to the Packers in Week 3. The 4-point spread is a bit of a dead number, so expect some hefty line movement based on Week 1 knee jerks.

The line for the Niners’ home opener versus the Cheeseheads on Sunday Night Football is currently OTB due to the Rodgers/Davante Adams drama in Wisconsin. If those talents are in green and yellow come September 26, this one would have San Francisco as a home underdog (early lines had 49ers +5). Shanahan is 3-1 ATS (2-2 SU) versus the Packers in his time in San Fran but 0-4 ATS (2-2 SU) in home openers since 2017.

Spot bet
Week 16: @ Tennessee -1

Music City could be a sour note for the Niners, who will not only be playing on a short week for this Thursday nighter — but it will also be the team’s third road game in four weeks.

San Francisco has back-to-back away stints at Seattle and Cincinnati before hosting Atlanta at home in Week 15 (always an emotional matchup for Shanahan), then turning around for a mid-week matchup with the Titans.

Shanahan’s 49ers are 10-6 ATS versus the AFC but who knows how much of this injury-plagued roster will still be active by the time December 23 rolls around.

Totals tip

When it comes to setting totals in the modern NFL era, the 49ers are a bit of a throwback. The tallest Over/Under in the Niners’ current lookahead lines tops out at 47.5 points for a Week 15 homestand facing the Falcons.

The San Francisco defense will be sound, and the playbook will still lean heavily on the ground game — especially early on if Lance gets the nod. That said, the Niners do have capable receiving threats in WRs Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and TE George Kittle. There could be a pivot to Over results once this offense finds its form.

Star power props: Nick Bosa, DE
Player prop Odds to win
Defensive Player of the Year +1,200
Comeback Player of the Year +800
Sack total 9.5 (Over -120)
Best prop: Over 9.5 sacks (-120)

The elephant in the locker room is the strength of Bosa’s knee after missing 2020 with a torn ACL. It seems his recovery is on schedule as teams enter camp, but his durability and explosiveness are in question.

Bosa was the lifeblood of this 49ers stop unit as a rookie in 2019, recording nine sacks and causing chaos at the line. Defensive architect Robert Saleh is gone to New York but new DC DeMeco Ryans is looking to dial up the intensity to 11 and getting other bodies back on the D-line is vital to Bosa’s success.

If anything, Bosa will have plenty of chances to collect the heads of QBs in divisional games alone. NFC West foes are going to be throwing — a lot — and Bosa could eclipse this sack total in those six matchups alone.

Trend to know

Pay attention to the point spread when betting the 49ers’ totals. We mentioned Shanahan’s piss-poor record as a regular-season favorite since 2017 (7-18-1 ATS), but the Niners are also 17-8-1 Over/Under in those games (68 percent Overs).

When getting the points, San Francisco is 16-22 O/U (58 percent Unders). The 49ers are currently underdogs in just two games (with a pick’em at Arizona and OTB vs Green Bay).

Games with San Francisco as an underdog

Week 13: @ Seahawks +1.5, 45.5
Week 18: @ Rams +3, 44.5

Where can I bet on the NFL?
You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.

CNOTES · Jul 31, 2021

Arizona Cardinals 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Third Times A Charm For Kliff and Kyler?

Year 3 of the Kingsbury/Kyler marriage again shows lots of promise, but with a greater focus on passing — and less of Murray running — what are the best ways to bet Arizona? Find out in our Cardinals 2021 season betting preview.

The promise of the Arizona Cardinals is part of the reason why the NFC West is the NFL’s best division. The Cardinals have an exciting young core on the field — and on the sideline — and anchored that potential with veteran additions on both sides of the ball in 2021.

That experience is much needed after Arizona drifted off course in the second half of the 2020 campaign, starting the season 5-2 SU and ATS before burning bettors like the desert sun with a 2-7 ATS finish (3-6 SU).

Here’s our 2021 Arizona Cardinals NFL betting preview.

Arizona Cardinals futures odds
Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +3,200
To Win Conference +1,600
To Win Division +550
Season Win Total 8.5 (O +130/U -160)
Best futures bet: Over 8.5 wins (+130)

Outside of the NFC West (Arizona was 2-4 SU in divisional games last year), the Cardinals slate isn’t too prickly and ranks 13th in strength of schedule. They match up with the AFC South in non-conference competition and play some of the tougher non-divisional matchups at home (Minnesota, Green Bay, Indianapolis). On top of the matchup with the Packers, Arizona also plays Houston: two teams whose star quarterbacks could be MIA by the time those games roll around. The oddsmakers have the Cards as favorites in nine games with one pick'em on the board.

What will win bets: Passing game

We enter Year 3 under coach Kliff Kingsbury and the third season for QB Kyler Murray. The cupboard is loaded with offensive options, most notably the receiving corps. DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, A.J. Green (if healthy), and rookie WR Rondale Moore will thrive in the up-tempo 10 personnel playbook and Arizona will score — a lot.

What will lose bets: Running game

Besides Lamar Jackson’s record-setting running, no quarterback rushed for more yards than Murray in 2020. That’s not a good thing and Murray knows it, stating he would like to run less. Protecting Murray from punishment and keeping pass rushes honest falls on Arizona’s ground game, which replaces the departed (and underrated) Kenyan Drake with the versatile-yet-fragile James Conner.

Arizona Cardinals game-by-game odds

According to the lookahead lines, 10 of Arizona’s 17 games have spreads of a field goal or less. Arizona is 6-9 ATS (6-8-1 SU) when set between -3 and +3 in the two years under Kingsbury.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 @ Tennessee +3.5 51

2 vs Minnesota -3 49.5

3 @ Jacksonville -2.5 49

4 @ L.A. Rams +4.5 49

5 vs San Francisco PK 46.5

6 @ Cleveland +4.5 50

7 vs Houston -10.5 49

8 vs Green Bay -3 49

9 @ San Francisco +5.5 47

10 vs Carolina -6 49.5

11 @ Seattle +3.5 50.5

12 BYE

13 @ Chicago -1.5 46

14 vs L.A. Rams +2.5 48

15 @ Detroit -6.5 47

16 vs Indianapolis -1 50

17 @ Dallas +2.5 52

18 vs Seattle -2 49

Early season forecast

The Cardinals were a last-second field goal from Detroit away from a 3-0 start last September and have a solid shot at winning the first three games of 2021.

They opened as 2.5-point underdogs in Tennessee for Week 1 and that spread ticked up to Titans -3 with their addition of Julio Jones. This 1 p.m. ET kickoff will be a contrast in tempos, with Arizona’s no-huddle putting the Tennessee defense on its heels and the Titans plodding run game trying to chew up clock and ice Murray & Co. on the sideline.

Week 2 is the home opener, with the Vikings coming to town for a 4:05 p.m. ET start. The Cardinals are giving a field goal to Minnesota, which is playing its second straight road game. Arizona is 8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS, and 4-7 O/U in home openers since 2010.

A cross-country trip to Jacksonville for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff is on the Week 3 docket. Bookies have the Cards pegged as 2.5-point road chalk. Arizona could get caught looking ahead to Week 4’s collision with L.A. However, Kingsbury is 3-1 ATS on the road versus AFC foes since 2019.

2021 NFL Win Totals
NFL
2021 NFL Win Totals

By: Jared Hochman

Spot bet
Week 4 – at Los Angeles Rams (+4.5)
This first taste of the 2021 Rams — and new QB Matt Stafford — comes in a tricky schedule spot for the Cardinals, who will be playing their second straight away game and third road stop in four weeks to open the season. Plus Arizona went 0-2 SU and ATS versus Rams last season.

Totals tip
The Cardinals were one of the best Under bets in football last season, going 5-11 Over/Under — including five straight Under winners to start the schedule. A disruptive pass rush and solid secondary can take credit for those results.

However, lockdown corner Patrick Peterson is gone and Arizona is hoping to squeeze out whatever is left from defensive veterans Malcolm Butler and J.J Watt. This season, oddsmakers have set five of Arizona's games with sub-49 totals. The Cards are 6-9 O/U in games with totals of 48.5 points or less under Kingsbury.

Star power props: Kyler Murray, QB
Player prop Odds to win
MVP +1,200
Passing leader +4,100
Passing yards total 4,150.5 (O -115/U -115)
Best prop: Passing Leader (+4,100)

Murray finished with 3,971 passing yards last year (13th) and played the second half of the season with a bum shoulder, while the offensive line allowed 17 sacks in the final eight games after giving up only 10 in the opening eight outings.

Kingsbury’s 10 personnel sets (four WRs) and no-huddle attack want Murray throwing more and running less, and with a bevy of reliable targets, the former Heisman winner should climb the passing charts quickly. His top target, DeAndre Hopkins, is the favorite to lead the league in receiving yards at +750, so it only makes sense that Murray should challenge for the passing title as well.

2021 NFL Divisional Odds
NFL
2021 NFL Divisional Odds

By: Chris Toman

Trend to know
Arizona is 3-9 SU and 4-6-2 ATS versus NFC West rivals since Kingsbury took over as head coach in 2019.

Divisional games

Week 4: +4.5 at Rams
Week 5: PK vs 49ers
Week 9: +5.5 at 49ers
Week 11: +3.5 at Seahawks
Week 14: +2.5 vs Rams
Week 18: -2 vs Seahawks

Where can I bet on the NFL?
You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.

CNOTES · Jul 31, 2021

Los Angeles Rams 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Sean McVay Has A Shiny New Toy

It's Super Bowl or bust for the Rams, who still have an elite defense but have finally added an elite QB in Matthew Stafford. L.A. is sitting at +600 to win the NFC — is that our favorite Rams prop? Find out in our Los Angeles season betting preview.

The Los Angeles Rams wasted no time getting their ducks in a row for the 2021 NFL season, trading for veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford in March.

After a Big Game appearance in 2019-20 and watching poor QB play soil the league’s best defense last year, enough was enough for head coach Sean McVay. Jared Goff is gone and it’s Super Bowl or bust for an L.A. team that finished 10-6 SU and 9-7 ATS, second in the NFC West, and was bounced in the Divisional Round.

We present our 2021 Los Angeles Rams NFL betting preview.

Los Angeles Rams futures odds
Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +1,200
To Win Conference +600
To Win Division +200
Season Win Total O/U 10.5 (Under -120)
Best futures bet: NFC Conference champs (+600)

Los Angeles has a great shot at getting back to the Super Bowl, which just so happens to be played in SoFi Stadium this year. Besides the Bucs (+225), the rest of the Rams’ conference competition have fatal flaws (like the Packers pissing Aaron Rodgers off).

If you’re feeling feisty and holding on to memories of that monster Monday nighter from 2018, a Chiefs-Rams Big Game battle is paying +2,600. If anything, that flyer might set up a nice hedge opportunity come Championship Sunday.

Los Angeles Rams betting overview

What will win bets: Defense

The Rams’ vaunted defense lost some cogs up front this offseason but will still be among the league’s elite stop units. Los Angeles finished No. 4 in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders and caused plenty of chaos with 53 sacks in 2020. The defense allowed only 7.2 points per second half, which sets the table for Stafford’s late-game heroics to come through for bettors.

What will lose bets: Rushing game

The offseason injury to RB Cam Akers is a tough blow. Granted, with Stafford under center L.A. won’t be running as much and there’s still plenty of time to bring in another body to share handoffs with Darrell Henderson Jr.

But with some changes on the offensive line, McVay needs a capable ground game to keep defenses guessing, avoid constant heat on Stafford and give that rocket arm time to load and fire.

Los Angeles Rams game-by-game odds

The Rams are point spread favorites in 13 of their 17 games in 2021 (with one pick’em), and despite having the 10th-toughest strength of schedule this year are dealing a season win total of 10.5 O/U. Five of those games as the chalk come on the road, where McVay is 13-10 ATS when giving the points as a visitor.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 vs Chicago -7 44.5

2 @ Indianapolis +1.5 49.5

3 vs Tampa Bay -1 49.5

4 vs Arizona -4.5 49

5 @ Seattle PK 48

6 @ N.Y. Giants -3.5 45.5

7 vs Detroit -12 46

8 @ Houston -8.5 47

9 vs Tennessee -5.5 49.5

10 @ San Francisco +3 45.5

11 BYE

12 @ Green Bay -1 45.5

13 vs Jacksonville -9.5 47

14 @ Arizona -2.5 48

15 vs Seattle -4 48

16 @ Minnesota -2.5 48

17 @ Baltimore +3 42.5

18 vs San Francisco -3 44.5

Early season forecast

The season starts on Sunday Night Football when the Bears come to town in Week 1. The Rams are touchdown favorites with their sack attack setting sights on either Andy Dalton, Nick Foles, or rookie passer Justin Fields — hence the low total. That 44.5-point number lines up fine for McVay and crew, who are 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS in games with sub-45 Over/Under totals.

A trip to Indianapolis is on the Week 2 agenda, pitting Los Angeles’ pass rush against the Colts drum-tight offensive line. The Rams, who are catching 1.5 points as visitors, have only been road underdogs a dozen times since McVay took over in 2017, going 8-4 ATS in those contests.

Week 3 gives us one of the most anticipated matchups of the entire season and a possible NFC Championship Game preview. Los Angeles is a slight 1-point favorite at home, marking the only game the Bucs are listed as underdogs in 2021. The Rams edged Tampa Bay 27-24 as 4-point road underdogs last year, in one of Tom Brady’s worst games (26/48, 216 yards, 2 TDS, 2 INTs). If you’re betting L.A. in this one, you may also want to grab its NFC title futures as well because this outcome will have a dramatic impact on those odds.

Spot bet

Week 6: @ N.Y. Giants -3.5

A nasty triple-decker sandwich spot awaits the Rams in the Meadowlands in mid-October. Los Angeles is not only ripe for a letdown after a Thursday night showdown in Seattle in Week 5 but could also get caught looking ahead to the Stafford/Goff revenge game versus Detroit in Week 7. On top of those situational spots, this is a 1 p.m. ET kickoff on the East Coast — 10 a.m. PT back in La-La Land.

Totals tip

The Rams finished 4-12 Over/Under in the regular season last year and had four sub-45 totals, staying below in each of those games. That said, Goff was the QB and the Rams had the seventh most run-heavy playbook in the league, chewing up 31:39 in average TOP (5th).

Despite McVay’s offensive prowess and Stafford’s big arm, Los Angeles doesn’t have a single total above 50 points, according to the current 2021 lookahead lines (three totals of 49.5). It does have three totals below 45 points and with Akers’ injury thinning the rushing corp, the defensive line losing some bite, and McVay excited to have a new toy under center, don’t expect another 75 percent run from Rams’ Unders.

Star power props: Matthew Stafford, QB
Player prop Odds to win
MVP +1,700
Passing leader +1,400
Passing yards total 4,550.5 (O/U -112)
Best prop: Under 4,550.5 yards (-112)

Stafford posted 4,084 yards through the air last year in a Lions offense that passed on 63 percent of its snaps and was often playing from behind, leaving no choice but to toss it.

McVay has more faith in Stafford than Goff, so expect L.A.’s air yards to stretch, but this is a very good L.A. team that will be protecting leads in the second half. And with a defense that can singlehandedly win games, no longer is the win/loss load all on Stafford’s mighty right arm like it was in Detroit. He’ll have a great year... but not this great.

Trend to know

Los Angeles is 16-8 SU and 16-7-1 ATS (69%) versus NFC foes the past two seasons but 3-5 SU and ATS versus the AFC in that same time frame.

AFC games in 2021

Week 2: +1.5 at Colts
Week 8: -8.5 at Texans
Week 9: -5.5 vs Titans
Week 13: -9.5 vs Jaguars
Week 17: +3 at Ravens

Where can I bet on the NFL?

You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.

CNOTES · Jul 31, 2021

Seattle Seahawks 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Can the Seahawks Overcome Their Identity Crisis?

The Seahawks have been among the NFL's most consistent teams, but with tension simmering between Russell Wilson and the team, and question marks on defense, is this the year they slide into mediocrity? Find out in our Seattle season betting preview.

The Seattle Seahawks have been the gatekeepers of the NFC West for some time now and added another divisional crown last year, finishing with a 12-4 SU record but an 8-8 mark against the spread.

Seven of those 2020 victories came via a touchdown or less and that drama is something Seahawks bettors are accustomed to, with 16 of the team’s 23 wins over the past two seasons coming by seven or fewer points. Will those thrilling wins turn to heartbreaking losses with the rest of the division getting better?

Check out our 2021 Seattle Seahawks NFL betting preview.

Seattle Seahawks futures odds
Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +3,000
To Win Conference +1,500
To Win Division +275
Season Win Total O/U 9.5 (Over -130)
Best futures bet: Under 9.5 wins (+110)

According to bookmakers, the Seahawks are point spread favorites in only nine games this season (with one pick’em on the board) and three of those spreads are at a field goal or less. For all the hype around the infamous “12s” inside Lumen Field, Seattle has been a better road team since Russell Wilson showed up (42-28-1 SU away as of 2012). But the 2021 slate, which ranks T-11th in SOS, has many of the Seahawks’ toughest matchups away from the Emerald City.

What will win bets: Passing game
Wanna keep Russ happy? Keep him clean and keep him busy. That’s the plan laid out by new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who will institute more play-action and utilize Wilson’s mobility and mind-blowing accuracy when throwing on the run. Receiver DK Metcalf exploded in Year 2 in the pros and will see even more touches if Pete Carroll can take his damn hands off the wheel.

What will lose bets: Defense
Seattle’s stop unit gave up 30.4 points per game in the first eight outings of the season then suddenly slammed the door in the second half of the schedule, allowing a mere 16 points per contest. I’m calling bullshit. Here are the QBs the Seahawks faced in those final eight games: Jared Goff x2, Kyler Murray (injured shoulder), Carson Wentz, Colt McCoy, Sam Darnold, Dwayne Haskins, and C.J. Beathard. Little was done to improve this defensive group this offseason. Seattle backers will curse them. Over bettors should send them a fruit basket.

Seattle Seahawks game-by-game odds
It’s wild to think Seattle is a point spread favorite only once in the first six games of the season (with a pick’em in there). Things could snowball quickly if the Seahawks get off to a rough start. They play three of their first four on the road and four of six away from home to start the year. All that Wilson drama from back in the winter could come bubbling to the surface if the losses start stacking up.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 @ Indianapolis +3 52

2 vs Tennessee -3.5 49.5

3 @ Minnesota +1.5 48

4 @ San Francisco +3.5 46.5

5 vs L.A. Rams PK 48

6 @ Pittsburgh +2.5 48

7 vs New Orleans -3 48

8 vs Jacksonville -7.5 48

9 BYE

10 @ Green Bay +3 49.5

11 vs Arizona -3.5 50.5

12 @ Washington -2.5 46.5

13 vs San Francisco -1.5 45.5

14 @ Houston -7 48.5

15 @ L.A. Rams +4 48

16 vs Chicago -5.5 45

17 vs Detroit -9.5 45

18 @ Arizona +2 49

Early season forecast

The 2021 opener finds Seattle inside the fast track at Lucas Oil Stadium, getting 2.5 points from the Colts in this 1 p.m. ET Week 1 start. This total is a lofty 52 points, and the Seahawks are an incredible 15-2 Over/Under in non-conference road games since Wilson became QB1 in 2012. That said, you have a Seahawks offense working in a new coordinator and Indy breaking in a new QB in Carson Wentz.

Week 2 is the return of the “12s” to Lumen Field after being locked out during the pandemic-stricken 2020 campaign. Seattle is giving 3.5 points to the visiting Titans and is 16-2 SU (11-7 ATS) at home versus non-conference foes since 2012. Seattle hasn’t lost a home opener in that span, going 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS.

A trip to Minnesota awaits the Seahawks in Week 3, where bookies have set them as slight road underdogs. Seattle is a remarkable 17-8-2 ATS as a road dog in Wilson’s tenure as the No. 1 passer but a road trip to San Francisco in Week 4 could set the stage for a lookahead versus the Vikings.

Spot bet

Week 8 vs Jacksonville -7.5

There are a few things that make this a dangerous spot for the Seahawks:

1. Based on the slog that is the first seven games of the schedule, Seattle could be in bad shape and looking ahead to a much-needed bye in Week 9.

2. The Jags have plenty of inside intel on their Week 8 foes, with four former Seattle assistants on Urban Meyer’s staff, including former offensive coordinators Darrell Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer.

3. The Seahawks are on a short week and a possible letdown spot after a Monday Night Football shootout with the Saints in Week 7.

4. That half-point hook on the touchdown spread could just be enough to burn Seattle bettors. And we’re well aware of how the Seahawks love them some one-score games.

Totals tip

The identity crisis that was the Seahawks’ 2020 season manifested itself into some wild swings in Over/Under results. Seattle went 6-2 O/U in the first half of the calendar and 1-7 O/U in the back half of the schedule.

Books are bracing for a pile of points, with a couple of 50-plus numbers showing up in the lookahead totals and three others at 49 or 49.5. If the playbook goes pass-heavy like Wilson wants and the defense stinks as bad as I think it will, those numbers will be on the rise.

Star power props: DK Metcalf, WR
Player prop Odds to win
MVP +12,500
Receiving leader +1,100
Receiving yards total 1,350.5 (Over -130)
Best prop: Over 1,350.5 receiving yards (-130)

Metcalf mashed his way to 1,303 receiving yards in 2020 but when the Seahawks’ offense had the power pulled, so did DK’s big-play production. He was on pace for over 1,500 yards in the first eight games (788 total yards on 43 catches) but mustered just 515 yards despite catching only three fewer balls in the second half of the season.

With Waldron looking to push the tempo with the pass game – a hard break from Carroll’s run-heavy philosophies – Metcalf will see an uptick in targets. Even with teams throwing extra bodies at him, the 6-foot-4 freak of nature will eclipse this modest player prop.

Trend to know

The Seahawks are 8-2 ATS as divisional road underdogs since 2012 and catch points at L.A., San Francisco and Arizona this season.

Divisional road games

Week 4 @ San Francisco +3.5
Week 15 @ L.A. Rams +4
Week 18 @ Arizona +2

Where can I bet on the NFL?

You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.

CNOTES · Jul 31, 2021

Las Vegas Raiders 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Vegas Is Bullish On It's Hometown Team

Derek Carr and Las Vegas have the weapons to again be a lethal passing attack. But with a weak defense and a likely bigger emphasis on the run game, is that aerial attack — and the Raiders overall — something you should be betting on to succeed?

The Las Vegas Raiders get a second chance at a first impression in 2021 after watching the pandemic dull the excitement of their first season in Sin City. With fans in the stands, you can be sure the bulk of those butts are betting on games, so get ready for some random roars when a particular prop hits.

Cirque du Soleil isn’t the only high-flying show in town, with Vegas possessing one of the top passing games in the NFL. But can the defense do enough for Raiders Nation to cash in?

Here’s our 2021 Las Vegas NFL betting preview.

Las Vegas Raiders futures odds
Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +6,000
To Win Conference +3,000
To Win Division +1,600
To Make Playoffs Yes +330/No -400
Season Win Total O/U 7.5 (Under -130)
Best futures bet: Over 7.5 wins (+110)

Scouring the schedule, you can squeeze eight wins out of the Raiders, who finished 8-8 SU in a COVID-stricken 16-game 2020 season. While they play back-to-back home games just once (Week 10 and Week 11) they only travel to the East Coast for 1 p.m. ET starts twice (Steelers and Giants) and have just two other 1 p.m. kickoffs (Kansas City and Indianapolis) on the slate.

With the Chargers in a major coaching transition and the Broncos’ QB questions stacking up, the window is open for Jon Gruden’s group to slide up in the AFC West. The Raiders picked up a win in Arrowhead and lost to the Chiefs by four points at home last year, proving they can trade punches with the two-time conference champs. “Vegas” may not have faith in Vegas — but I do.

What will win bets: Offense

Derek Carr takes a lot of shit, but just look at the numbers he and this offense put up. Carr finished 10th in passer rating in 2020 with 4,103 yards and 27 touchdown passes, to only nine interceptions, in a playbook that threw less than 56 percent of the time... but still scored over 27 points per game.

The receiving corps is loaded with talent, including second-year WR Henry Ruggs III, burner John Brown, Hunter Renfrow, and breakout TE Darren Waller. Complementing that air attack is running backs Josh Jacobs and underrated pickup Kenyan Drake. The offensive line is a big project after a mass exile of starters but this blocking unit played through the plague last year, plugging in new bodies almost every week.

What will lose bets: Defense

Bringing in Gus Bradley as defensive coordinator is a good start, but Las Vegas has a long way to go with this stop unit. The Raiders ranked 28th in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders in 2020 and allowed nearly 30 points per game.

Bradley’s schemes protect against home run plays, but don’t cause much chaos up front and are going to take some time to meld. Gruden may feel like he has to protect this unit by grinding out the ground game and dominating possession, which takes touches away from the Raiders’ real strength (passing). It’s a vicious cycle.

Las Vegas Raiders game-by-game odds
Bookies aren’t buying into the Silver and Black in 2021, with Las Vegas a point spread favorite in only six of 17 games this year, with a pick’em in place for Week 3 versus Miami. The Raiders were handed the seventh toughest schedule, according to SOS, and close out the year with five foes all with win total projections of nine games or more (three of those matchups coming on the road).

Home-field advantage is always a tough nut to quantify (is it really worth three points to the spread?) and may not exist in Vegas, with opposing fans more than happy to travel to Sin City for some fun and football. Will the “Vegas flu” balance this out? We’ve seen road teams struggle against the NHL’s Golden Knights at times, possibly succumbing to the delectable distractions of Vegas.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 vs Baltimore +4 51

2 @ Pittsburgh +5.5 49

3 vs Miami PK 46.5

4 @ L.A. Chargers +4 49.5

5 vs Chicago -3.5 46.5

6 @ Denver +3.5 47

7 vs Philadelphia -3.5 48.5

8 BYE

9 @ N.Y. Giants +1.5 47.5

10 vs Kansas City +7.5 53.5

11 vs Cincinnati -4.5 50

12 @ Dallas +5.5 53

13 vs Washington -2.5 47.5

14 @ Kansas City +10.5 53

15 @ Cleveland +6.5 50

16 vs Denver -2.5 47

17 @ Indianapolis +6 49.5

18 vs L.A. Chargers -1.5 48.5

Early season forecast

A retooled offensive line and a new defensive coordinator will be tested hard in the opening games of 2021, with Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Miami on deck: three teams with solid defenses and capable offensive attacks.

The Death Star will be rocking for a Monday Night Football opener in Week 1, giving the Raiders the Vegas debut they deserve. This line opened Raiders +6.5 but has trimmed considerably since going up in the spring, now sitting at +4. Las Vegas was a solid bet when getting four or more points in 2020, finishing 3-1 ATS in those contests.

The AFC North tour continues when Vegas crosses the country to play the Steelers in Week 2 for a 1 p.m. ET start. Those early kickoffs were a thorn in the side of this franchise when it was in Oakland, going 1-7 ATS in 1 p.m. starts between 2017 and 2019. However, last year the Vegas Raiders were 3-3 ATS in those situations and are currently catching +5.5 in Pittsburgh. Depending on how Week 1 rolls out, this line could climb to +6 or higher, so wait it out if you like the visitor.

Miami makes its way West in this battle of the two best party cities in the U.S. (sorry Nashville). The Dolphins edged the Raiders 26-25 with a last-second field goal in Week 16 of last year, but Vegas covered as a 2-point home dog. The 46.5-point total is tied as the lowest Over/Under on the 2021 board for Las Vegas, which didn’t face a number this low in 2020. However, the Oakland Raiders went 15-11-1 O/U against sub-47 totals between 2014 and 2019 (since Carr was QB1).

Spot bet

Week 11 @ N.Y. Giants +1.5

We’ve already mentioned the franchise’s follies when it comes to 1 p.m. ET kickoffs (4-10 ATS since 2017) and the Raiders face another early cross-country kickoff in Week 11, traveling to the Meadowlands in November (pretty much the exact opposite of Las Vegas).

This game comes on the heels of a bye week, which isn’t great for Gruden who is 0-3 ATS following a bye in his second go-around with the Raiders. Piling on to this situational sandwich is a massive lookahead spot with rivals Kansas City coming to town for a Sunday nighter in Week 12.

Totals tip

Las Vegas was the top Over bet in the NFL in 2020, posting a 12-3-1 O/U count thanks to a 10th-ranked scoring offense and piss-poor defense. Things will likely stay the same for the Raiders, as the makeup of the 2021 squad is similar.

That said, bookies are padding the numbers for Vegas’ totals. There are only two totals of sub-47 on the board and five of 50-plus, according to the current lookahead lines. The Silver and Black were 8-2-1 O/U against totals of 50 or more last season.

It may not be so cut and dry when capping the Raiders totals in 2021. The offense could stall because of the o-line shakeup and the defense under Bradley should improve (can’t get much worse), which could trickle down in varying Over/Under results.

Star power props: Derek Carr, QB
Player prop Odds to win
MVP +6,000
Passing leader +2,800
Passing Yards total 4,075.5 (Over -115)
Passing TD Total 25.5 (Under -130)
Best prop: Under 4,075 yards passing (-115)

This prop total is calling for a slight decline in Carr’s production after he posted 4,103 yards passing in 2020. But playing the Under is by no means a knock on Carr, who has pretty much been at this number the past three seasons.

The reason I lean Under here is that the running game could see substantial work if the defense needs protection — and it will early on. With a two-headed beast of Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas can hold on to the football and minimize the exposure of the stop unit. Obviously, that takes the football out of Carr’s hands.

Trend to know

In their first year in Sin City, the Raiders went 5-0-1 Over/Under in games pegged as home underdogs, and since 2014 — when Carr came aboard — this franchise is 20-11-1 O/U when set as a home pup (64.5 percent Overs). Las Vegas is getting the points in two home games in 2021.

Raiders totals as home underdogs

Week 1: vs. Ravens 51
Week 10:vs. Kansas City 53.5

CNOTES · Jul 31, 2021

Kansas City Chiefs 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Back and Better Than Before

Kansas City has been to back-to-back Super Bowls but will enter the 2021 season with a chip after its Big Game loss in February. What can slow down these Chiefs — if anything? Check out our betting preview for the Kansas City Chiefs.

What’s more motivating than defending a Super Bowl title? How about avenging a Super Bowl loss? The Kansas City Chiefs suffered only three defeats in 2020, unfortunately, one of those Ls was served up by Tampa Bay on Super Sunday.

We’ve seen Big Game losers go bust in the following season, but Kansas City has plenty of Pedialyte and greasy breakfasts – in the form of elite talent and top-notch coaching – to avoid the Super Bowl hangover. That’s evidenced by the mountain of points KC is dishing out to foes almost every week.

Here’s our 2021 Kansas City Chiefs NFL betting preview.

Kansas City Chiefs futures odds

Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +500
To Win Conference +250
To Win Division -250
To Make Playoffs Yes -900 / No +600
Season Win Total O/U 12.5 (Over -110)
Best futures bet: Win AFC Championship +250

A third straight AFC title in is the work for Kansas City. Outside of the Bills and Ravens, no one really comes close to the Chiefs in the conference and all the other serious Super Bowl contenders are in the NFC. On top of that, the road to the Super Bowl likely goes through Arrowhead in late January.

If you’re looking for a little more bang for your futures buck, look to the Super Bowl matchups odds. I’m high on Kansas City and the L.A. Rams, which would pay +2,600 if they clashed inside SoFi Stadium on Super Bowl Sunday.

What will win bets: Offense

The reason why the Chiefs are massive chalk in most games is also your best shot of covering those piles of points. It’s madness to think Patrick Mahomes is only entering Year 4 as the starter and Canton is already getting his measurements for a gold jacket.

Around Mahomes is an embarrassing amount of game-breaking talent, including sophomore Swiss Army Knife Clyde Edwards-Helaire. And the one glaring weakness from 2020 – the offensive line – has been retooled and is now projected to be one of the best in the league.

What will lose bets: Complacency

After two straight Super Bowl appearances, the regular season is starting to feel like a formality to the Chiefs, who are the biggest division favorites in the AFC. We’ve seen this group go on extended cold streaks for bettors, most notably at the end of the year when spreads inflate to match the public appeal and the mind starts to drift to the postseason. Kansas City is 7-12-2 ATS from Week 10 onward over the past three campaigns, including a 1-7 ATS mark to close out 2020. As good as KC is, there’s a tipping point with those lofty spreads.

Kansas City Chiefs game-by-game odds
The Chiefs are point spread favorites in 15 of 17 games right now, with a pick’em at Baltimore in Week 2 and the Week 9 showdown with the Packers off the board (it’s likely KC will be slight chalk in that one). Their 2021 slate ranks T-11 in terms of strength of schedule.

Kansas City faces an average spread of -6.75 and if you drop the -3 at Denver in Week 18 (obviously padding against the Chiefs resting starters ahead of the playoffs), that average climbs to a cool touchdown. But as good as the Chiefs are, they’re just 9-12-1 ATS as favorites of a TD or more – something that occurs nine times in 2021.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 vs Cleveland -6.5 53.5

2 @ Baltimore PK 51.5

3 vs L.A. Chargers -7.5 52.5

4 @ Philadelphia -8 50.5

5 vs Buffalo -4.5 54.5

6 @ Washington -6.5 50.5

7 @ Tennessee -4.5 54.5

8 vs N.Y. Giants -10 49

9 vs Green Bay OTB OTB

10 @ Las Vegas -7.5 53.5

11 vs Dallas -7.5 55

12 BYE

13 vs Denver -9.5 50

14 vs Las Vegas -10.5 53

15 @ L.A. Chargers -6.5 52

16 vs Pittsburgh -8.5 50

17 @ Cincinnati -7.5 49.5

18 @ Denver -3 45.5

Early season forecast

The Chiefs have three solid matchups right out of the gate, which should help tell us if Mahomes & Co. are on a revenge tour or still stinging from that Super Bowl spanking.

Week 1 is a rewind of the AFC Divisional Round, hosting the Browns as 6.5-point favorites after this spread jumped as much as a full point from -5.5. Cleveland lost 22-17 to Kansas City last January, after clawing back from a 19-3 hole, to the dismay of Chiefs bettors who laid 7.5 points. The Chiefs have won and covered in four straight home openers going back to 2017 but Super Bowl losers are just 9-12 SU and 5-16 ATS in Week 1 of the following season. Hmmmmm...

One of the most anticipated games of the entire 2021 schedule holds court in Week 2 when Kansas City visits Baltimore. The Chiefs went into M&T Bank Stadium and dished out a 34-20 ransack of the Ravens last September as 3.5-point road underdogs. This line is calling for a close contest, currently sitting pick’em, which could make KC backers nervous if it moves toward the visitors. The Chiefs were 9-0 SU but just 1-8 ATS in one-score games last year.

The Chiefs kickoff divisional play back home versus the L.A. Chargers in Week 3, giving the touchdown with a nasty half-point hook in a potential letdown spot after that clash with Baltimore. The Bolts are always live road dogs and Kansas City is 4-2 SU but just 2-3-1 ATS versus Los Angeles since Mahomes got the starting job.

Spot bet

Week 13: vs Denver (-9.5)

Betting Andy Reid off the bye week has lost a little steam but this process still holds a 19-3 SU record and 14-8 ATS count since Reid took over the head coaching role in Philadelphia back in 1999. The Chiefs have a bye in Week 12 which has Andy backers laying the lumber against the Broncos in Week 13. Books have KC pegged as 9.5-point home chalk to Denver for this 1 p.m. ET start. This game is part of a four-week span that sees the Chiefs stay in Arrowhead for three straight games.

Totals tip

The 2021 lookahead lines see 13 of the Chiefs’ games with totals of 50 points or more (likely 14 when that Green Bay line comes back out). The highest among them is a 55-point peak versus Dallas in Week 11 – currently the tallest Over/Under for the entire 2021 season.

Kansas City went 8-8 O/U in 2020 and is 30-25-1 O/U since 2018. You would think with all those big spreads, a Chiefs-Over same-game parlay would be a popular pick. And if you fell into that most public of public plays, you’d be doing your bookie a favor. Kansas City is 4-9 Over/Under when pegged as a double-digit favorite while going 5-7-1 ATS in those outings since 2018.

Star power props: Patrick Mahomes QB

Player prop Odds to win
MVP +450
Passing leader +275
Passing yards total 5,100.5 yards (Over -120)
Passing TD total 39.5 (Under -130)
Best prop: Over 39.5 passing TDs (Over -110)

Besides the ample home run hitters at Mahomes’ disposal, the most vital part to this prop going Over is the new offensive line. Last season, Mahomes was hurried 64 times (sixth-most), sacked 22 times, and was forced to scramble on 40 snaps designed as a pass (also sixth). He finished the season with 38 touchdown passes in 15 games. This is Andy Reid’s offense so the pass attempts are coming and Mahomes should have plenty of time and clean air to find those playmakers downfield.

Trend to know

We called out the Chiefs for slowing down in the back end of the schedule, however, this team does get off to strong starts each season. Kansas City is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games in September, making the most of those spreads before the public pumps them up later on.

September games

Week 1: vs. Cleveland -6.5
Week 2: @ Baltimore PK
Week 3: vs. L.A. Chargers -7.5

CNOTES · Jul 31, 2021

Denver Broncos 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Books Love the Broncos D, but Will the Offense Hold Them Back?

The Denver Broncos are healthy and should have a lethal defense once again. But with the QB position still a question mark, is this a team you can bet on — especially considering Denver is currently favored in nine games this year?

As the old saying goes, “If you have two quarterbacks, then you don’t have any.” While the rest of the AFC West are locked into their starting QBs, the Denver Broncos are on the fence between young Drew Lock and veteran ATS ATM Teddy Bridgewater.

Broncos bettors may be hoping for Teddy B, who’s an incredible 36-14 ATS all-time as a starter, but Denver needs more than Bridgewater to bring home the bacon. All eyes are on Vic Fangio’s defense, which should return to its spot among the league’s elite stop units.

Check out our 2021 Denver Broncos NFL betting preview.

Denver Broncos futures odds

Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +3,000
To Win Conference +1,500
To Win Division +700
To Make Playoffs Yes +145/No -165
Season Win Total O/U 9 (Under -120)
Best futures bet: No playoffs (-165)

Denver has had trouble versus the AFC West (see below) and while its schedule ranks 24th in terms of SOS, there aren’t many layups on the calendar. The Broncos play on the East Coast three times in the first five weeks and close the year with five of their final seven contest against divisional rivals — a stretch that will make or break those playoff hopes.

The 2021 season win totals say the Broncos are playing for third in the AFC West (KC 12.5, L.A. 9.5) and will be in a dog fight for the seventh and final ticket to the tournament with the likes of Tennessee, Miami, New England, and Pittsburgh.

What will win bets: Pass Defense

Injuries ripped Denver’s defense apart at the seams in 2020. The pass rush was inconsistent, but still posted 42 sacks, and there was no danger element to this unit, recording a mere 16 takeaways. Despite that, the Broncos still finished 13th in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders (albeit 25th against the run).

Pass rushers Bradley Chubb and Von Miller are nightmare material for opposing QBs — when healthy — and the secondary improved greatly by drafting Patrick Surtain II and signing Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller.

What will lose bets: Quarterbacks

Broncos fans were holding out hope that Aaron Rodgers or Deshaun Watson would climb the mountain in 2021. For now, they’re left with Lock and Bridgewater. Those aren’t horrible options, but they aren’t covering the spread on their own — despite what Bridgewater’s insane ATS record says.

Lock is as raw as Eddie Murphy in a purple leather suit and could reel it in during Year 2 under Pat Shurmur but was ranked 31st out of 34 NFL QBs by The Athletic due to his wild inconsistency. As for Bridgewater, he’s the example of consistent: consistently adequate. He’s banking on the Broncos defense to win games and avoiding any pressure on his aging frame to make big plays.

Denver Broncos game-by-game odds

Denver is giving the points in nine of its 17 games in 2021, including being pegged as the chalk in three straight outings to start the season — twice as a road favorite. That’s a wild swing for Vic Fangio’s squad, which closed as an underdog in every game in 2020 (9-7 ATS).

The Broncos’ schedule is backloaded with AFC West rivals, playing five of their six divisional games after the Week 11 bye. Under Fangio, Denver is just 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS versus AFC West rivals, including a 1-5 SU count and 2-4 ATS in road divisional dances.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 @ N.Y. Giants -1 42.5

2 @ Jacksonville -1.5 43.5

3 vs N.Y. Jets -5.5 42.5

4 vs Baltimore +3.5 45

5 @ Pittsburgh +4.5 45

6 vs Las Vegas -3.5 47

7 @ Cleveland +7 44.5

8 vs Washington -3 43

9 @ Dallas +4.5 47

10 vs Philadelphia -5.5 45.5

11 BYE

12 vs L.A. Chargers -2.5 45.5

13 @ Kansas City +9.5 50

14 vs Detroit -7.5 43.5

15 vs Cincinnati -5.5 45

16 @ Las Vegas +2.5 47

17 @ L.A. Chargers +3 45

18 vs Kansas City +3 45.5

Early season forecast

The Broncos stop unit feasts on some weaker quarterbacks in the opening three weeks of 2021, which sets them up for a strong start despite playing back-to-back roadies out East to kick off the campaign.

The season opens in the Meadowlands against the Giants, with Denver dealing one point to the host side for a 4:25 p.m. ET start. Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur should have some inside intel on the G-Men, given he was their OC for two seasons before coming to Denver. This line opened New York -1 but with the Rodgers rumors bubbling up this summer, early bettors tried to get out ahead of a potential blockbuster deal and action on the Broncos swung the spread over the fence.

Denver stays coastal for a Week 2 venture down to Jacksonville, laying another slim spread as road chalk. The Broncos defense gets its first taste of No. 1-overall pick Trevor Lawrence in this 1 p.m. ET start. In two years under Fangio, this team is 7-3 ATS in non-divisional road games (4-6 SU) but was never the favorite in those away contests.

One of my favorite long-term trends with teeth is back on the board in Week 3 for the Broncos’ first home game. Denver is a desirable 18-3 SU and 13-4-4 ATS in home openers since 2000. The narrative is there: opponents aren’t quite in game shape this early into the season and must go up to Mile High and play in the energy-sapping thin air. The Jets are catching 5.5 points in this tough spot, coming off matchups with Buffalo and Tampa Bay — and likely starting a rookie QB in Zach Wilson.

Spot bet

Week 7 @ Cleveland +7

That Week 3 home opener is one hell of a spot for Broncos backers. But when it comes to possible play-against situational capping, circle the Thursday Night Football date in Cleveland in Week 7. This will be Denver’s fourth road trip in the first seven weeks and is played on a short turnaround. In contrast, this meeting is the middle of three straight home stands for the Browns.

Totals tip

Denver wrapped 2020 with an even 8-8 Over/Under clip but sided with the Under in five of its final eight games. The 2021 totals are calling for plenty of low-scoring finishes, as outside of a 50-point number at Kansas City in Week 13, the remainder of the Broncos’ O/U totals are at 47 points or less with bookies giving this defense its due.

Vic Fangio’s stop unit has done right by Under backers against AFC West opponents, posting a 4-8 Over/Under record in divisional contests since 2019. This trend isn’t only reserved to this current coaching staff either, as Denver is 13-21-2 O/U in divisional contests since 2015 — a 62 percent Under payday.

Star power props: Jerry Jeudy, WR
Player prop Odds to win
Receiving Yards Leader +6,600
Receiving Yards Total 920.5 (Over -115)
Receptions Total 68.5 (Over -115)
Receiving TD Total 4.5 (Over -150)
Best prop: Under 68.5 receptions (-115)

Jeudy had a solid rookie campaign, considering the quality of company throwing him the football. He snagged 52 balls on 113 targets but also got dinged for 12 drops — second-most in the NFL.

He instantly became Denver’s top target when Courtland Sutton went down with an ACL tear in Week 2. Sutton is back for 2021 and was a beast in 2019 (72 receptions/1,112 yards), which will take away plenty of Jeudy’s touches. Mix in a possible game of musical chairs at QB and a lack of chemistry and timing could plague this passing game.

Trend to know

As mentioned, the Broncos haven’t been pegged as favorites much since Fangio took over in 2019. In fact, Denver is 2-3 ATS as the chalk in that span. Expectations are higher in 2021, as books have the Broncos giving points in nine games.

That could be an issue.

Denver has had a devil of a time covering as a fave for a while now, boasting a 16-25-3 ATS record (39%) in those spots since 2015. Even in a place like Empower Field at Mile High, with its built-in home-field advantage of thin air and cold weather, the Broncos are just 8-15-3 ATS (35%) as home favorites over the past six seasons.

Denver is laying points in seven home stands this year.

Games with Broncos as home favorites in 2021

Week 3: -3.5 vs. Jets
Week 6: -3.5 vs. Raiders
Week 8: -3 vs. Washington
Week 10: -5.5 vs. Eagles
Week 12: -2.5 vs. Chargers
Week 14: -7.5 vs. Lions
Week 15: -5.5 vs. Bengals

CNOTES · Jul 31, 2021

Denver Broncos 2021 NFL Betting Preview: Books Love the Broncos D, but Will the Offense Hold Them Back?

The Denver Broncos are healthy and should have a lethal defense once again. But with the QB position still a question mark, is this a team you can bet on — especially considering Denver is currently favored in nine games this year?

As the old saying goes, “If you have two quarterbacks, then you don’t have any.” While the rest of the AFC West are locked into their starting QBs, the Denver Broncos are on the fence between young Drew Lock and veteran ATS ATM Teddy Bridgewater.

Broncos bettors may be hoping for Teddy B, who’s an incredible 36-14 ATS all-time as a starter, but Denver needs more than Bridgewater to bring home the bacon. All eyes are on Vic Fangio’s defense, which should return to its spot among the league’s elite stop units.

Check out our 2021 Denver Broncos NFL betting preview.

Denver Broncos futures odds

Futures Bet Odds
Super Bowl +3,000
To Win Conference +1,500
To Win Division +700
To Make Playoffs Yes +145/No -165
Season Win Total O/U 9 (Under -120)
Best futures bet: No playoffs (-165)

Denver has had trouble versus the AFC West (see below) and while its schedule ranks 24th in terms of SOS, there aren’t many layups on the calendar. The Broncos play on the East Coast three times in the first five weeks and close the year with five of their final seven contest against divisional rivals — a stretch that will make or break those playoff hopes.

The 2021 season win totals say the Broncos are playing for third in the AFC West (KC 12.5, L.A. 9.5) and will be in a dog fight for the seventh and final ticket to the tournament with the likes of Tennessee, Miami, New England, and Pittsburgh.

What will win bets: Pass Defense

Injuries ripped Denver’s defense apart at the seams in 2020. The pass rush was inconsistent, but still posted 42 sacks, and there was no danger element to this unit, recording a mere 16 takeaways. Despite that, the Broncos still finished 13th in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders (albeit 25th against the run).

Pass rushers Bradley Chubb and Von Miller are nightmare material for opposing QBs — when healthy — and the secondary improved greatly by drafting Patrick Surtain II and signing Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller.

What will lose bets: Quarterbacks

Broncos fans were holding out hope that Aaron Rodgers or Deshaun Watson would climb the mountain in 2021. For now, they’re left with Lock and Bridgewater. Those aren’t horrible options, but they aren’t covering the spread on their own — despite what Bridgewater’s insane ATS record says.

Lock is as raw as Eddie Murphy in a purple leather suit and could reel it in during Year 2 under Pat Shurmur but was ranked 31st out of 34 NFL QBs by The Athletic due to his wild inconsistency. As for Bridgewater, he’s the example of consistent: consistently adequate. He’s banking on the Broncos defense to win games and avoiding any pressure on his aging frame to make big plays.

Denver Broncos game-by-game odds

Denver is giving the points in nine of its 17 games in 2021, including being pegged as the chalk in three straight outings to start the season — twice as a road favorite. That’s a wild swing for Vic Fangio’s squad, which closed as an underdog in every game in 2020 (9-7 ATS).

The Broncos’ schedule is backloaded with AFC West rivals, playing five of their six divisional games after the Week 11 bye. Under Fangio, Denver is just 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS versus AFC West rivals, including a 1-5 SU count and 2-4 ATS in road divisional dances.

Week Opponent Spread Total

1 @ N.Y. Giants -1 42.5

2 @ Jacksonville -1.5 43.5

3 vs N.Y. Jets -5.5 42.5

4 vs Baltimore +3.5 45

5 @ Pittsburgh +4.5 45

6 vs Las Vegas -3.5 47

7 @ Cleveland +7 44.5

8 vs Washington -3 43

9 @ Dallas +4.5 47

10 vs Philadelphia -5.5 45.5

11 BYE

12 vs L.A. Chargers -2.5 45.5

13 @ Kansas City +9.5 50

14 vs Detroit -7.5 43.5

15 vs Cincinnati -5.5 45

16 @ Las Vegas +2.5 47

17 @ L.A. Chargers +3 45

18 vs Kansas City +3 45.5

Early season forecast

I’m predicting a pricky start to the season for Los Angeles, based on its competition and time needed to adapt to the overhaul in both offensive and defensive playbooks.

Week 1 will be a test for Lombardi and Herbert, crossing the country for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT) in DC. The Football Team is a disruptive defense that ranked third in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders and created all kinds of chaos with 23 takeaways and 47 sacks in 2020. This game opened a pick’em but early play on L.A. has the Chargers as high as -1.5. The Bolts are 6-1-2 ATS in their last nine season openers going back to their time in San Diego.

The home opener should be one of the more entertaining games in Week 2 — if this 52-point total has any say — with the Cowboys coming to town. This will be the Chargers’ second straight non-conference game to start 2021. Los Angeles is 10-6 ATS versus NFC foes the past four years but just 4-4 ATS at home in those non-con contests.

The real season begins for the Bolts in Week 3, venturing to Arrowhead to play the Chiefs. Bookies are spotting the Chargers 7.5 points in Kansas City — a role Bolts bettors love. Since moving to L.A., this team is 11-5-3 ATS as a road underdog in the regular season. What’s more: Going back to 2000, this franchise is 21-11-7 ATS as a road dog visiting a divisional opponent (3-1-2 ATS since moving to L.A. 2017).

Spot bet

Week 8 vs New England -2.5

I’m not a big believer in revenge spots when it comes to pro sports, but the Bolts have a bone to pick with the Patriots after eating a 45-0 shit sandwich at home in Week 13 of last year. Not only is Herbert looking to redeem himself (26/53, 209 yards, 2 INT) but this matchup comes after the Chargers’ bye in Week 7. That’s two weeks to fine-tune those new playbooks and stew on last year’s ass waxing. I love the home side under the field goal.

Totals tip

The Chargers finished with a 9-7 Over/Under count in 2020 but was a noticeable 6-2 O/U in the role of visitor. Los Angeles scored more than four points extra per road game, which was enough to top the total on most road trips.

While both units are under new coordinators and undergoing massive changes, the defense could have the leg up on the offense — especially with Staley’s defensive chops coming over from the Rams and a healthy Derwin James at safety. The scoring attack could stall as Herbert & Co. adjust and the Bolts have some of their higher totals of the year at the front of the schedule. That opens up Under value for games in September and October.

Star power props: Justin Herbert, QB
Player prop Odds to win
MVP +2,000
Passing leader +1,000
Passing yards total 4,675 (Under -140)
Best prop: Under 4,675.5 yards passing (-140)

In 15 games last season, Herbert let if fly for 4,336 yards. Had he started in Week 1 instead of Tyrod Taylor, the then-rookie might have sniffed this passing yards total for 2021. Herbert’s first year was record-setting, which puts the bar high for his sophomore effort. But opponents now have a full season worth of tape on the youngster and he’s got to learn a brand new system: a system originally orchestrated for an all-time great. We’ve seen other standout QBs regress in their second year in the pros — and the same fate awaits Herbert.

Trend to know

We mentioned the L.A. Chargers’ resolve as road underdogs, going 11-5-3 ATS in regular season games when getting the points away from home. The Bolts are also 5-2-2 ATS when getting a field goal or less on the road. Currently, two games fall into that category but more of those short lines could swing over the fence if L.A. gets off to a rough start.

Road games between +3 and +1

Week 12: @ Broncos +2.5
Week 18: @ Raiders +1.5

CNOTES · Jul 31, 2021

The Must-Bet NFL Games of the 2021 Season

It's never too soon to start thinking about NFL betting. Jason Logan runs through each week of the 2021 schedule, giving his best angles and edges for the must-bet games of the NFL season.

It’s the beginning of summer, so naturally, savvy sports bettors are starting to think about the fall and beyond. And that means betting on the NFL.

The 2021 NFL schedule dropped back in May and many sportsbooks followed suit with spreads and Over/Under totals for every single game on the slate, from Week 1 to the shiny new Week 18.

I’m combing through those matchups and calling out the must-bet NFL games for each week on the calendar. Some of those are big-time games between Super Bowl contenders and other contests present some unique NFL betting edges that take advantage of the lookahead lines.

The new campaign kicks off on September 9, so with no time to spare, here are my must-bet NFL games for 2021, as well as each week’s honorable mention.

Week 1
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-2.5, 50.5)
As of this minute, Aaron Rodgers is still the Packers' starting quarterback, but all signs this summer point to him either opting out of the season or forcing Green Bay to deal him elsewhere. And because of that uncertainty, this spread has moved from Saints -1.5 to -2.5. But what about the total?

The Over/Under is sitting at 50.5 points despite the Saints wishing Drew Brees all the best in retirement and the Packers possibly left with a QB making his first NFL start on the road in Week 1 or… Blake Bortles. I don’t like tying up money for long periods but I’ve already bet the Under in this opener, banking on it being a messy game.

Honorable mention

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, 52)
Being that this is season opener on Thursday night, and it not only includes my Cowboys but the Super Bowl champion Buccaneers, we can’t ignore our first taste of real NFL betting action since Brady & Co. partied with Lombardi.

And, of course, we love the Week 1 trend around reigning Super Bowl champs, who are 14-6-1 ATS in their season opener since 2000. That’s a 70 percent winner right there. If you’re buying into that trend as well as Brady and the Bucs, you might want to bet this now since it’s below the touchdown.

Week 2
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (Pick, 51.5)
You know it’s going to be a hell of a game when the spread is sitting pick’em. Depending on where you bet, this Sunday Night Football showdown is being dealt between -110 flat and Kansas City -1.

This primetime matchup will hold a ton of parlay liability for bookies and the knee-jerk reactions from Week 1 could swing this spread, depending on how K.C. and Baltimore do in their openers. The Chiefs thumped the Ravens 34-20 in Week 3 of last year, shutting down Lamar Jackson to just 180 total yards of offense.

Honorable mention

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 49.5)
With Julio in tow, the Titans come to Seattle in Week 2 where the infamous 12th Man will make its return to Lumen Field after going dark due to COVID-19 last season. The Seahawks are not only 16-2 SU (11-7 ATS) at home versus non-conference opponents since Russell Wilson took over under center, but Seattle has never lost a home opener in that span, going 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS since 2012.

Week 3
New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-5.5, 42.5)
And speaking of holding your own in home openers, the Broncos are one of the best long-term bets in those spots, going back to 2000. Denver is 18-3 SU and 13-4-4 ATS in those previous 21 home openers. I love this trend because it has a narrative that makes sense: teams aren’t in full game shape this early into the season and must climb the mountain to play the Broncos in the thin air of Mile High.

This year’s unlucky contestant is the New York Jets, who have one of the toughest opening slates with the Bills and Bucs ahead of this trip to Denver. The Jets not only have a rookie head coach in Robert Salah but could have a rookie QB in Zach Wilson going up against Vic Fangio’s vaunted defense in Week 3. New York will likely be 0-2 coming into this game, so you may want to buy the Broncos now under the key number of -6. Oh, and maybe Aaron Rodgers shows up. Who knows?

Honorable mention

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-1, 49.5)
Interesting game. Interesting spread. Interesting trend. Depending on how Matt Stafford fits into Sean McVay’s system, this could be an NFC title game preview. It’s also one of the rare spots on the schedule in which the Bucs are catching the points. On top of all that, defending Super Bowl winners are just 13-23 ATS (20-16 SU) in their first road game of the season since 1985. That’s a lot to digest ahead of this September 26 contest.

Week 4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots (+3.5, 49)
This is like watching your ex enter the bar, and who’s that on their arm? Oh, it’s Vince Lombardi. Bill Belichick may have the emotional range of a tire iron but deep down inside that craggy ice cave of a heart, you know he’s a little hurt after watching Tom Brady win the Big Game with the Bucs.

Brady vs. Belichick will put butts in the seats but betting the Under will put dollars in your wallet on Sunday night. Tampa Bay boasts a championship-caliber defense and the Pats get back plenty of key members of the stop unit who opted to sit out the 2020 campaign. Belichick is also the owner of the world’s biggest Tom Brady film collection.

Honorable mention

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 47)
Since revenge and reunions are the common themes of Week 4, how about a recall to the 2020 CFP Championship Game? The last two No. 1 overall picks go head-to-head in Week 4 when Trevor Lawrence and the Jags visit Joe Burrow and the Bengals on Thursday Night Football.

Burrow roasted Lawrence’s Clemson team in that national title game, finding WR Ja’Marr Chase for 221 yards and two touchdowns. And what do you know? Chase was Cincinnati’s top choice in this year’s draft. As an LSU fan, this TNF clash brings back great memories.

Week 5
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 54.5)
This AFC Championship Game rematch is the crown jewel of Week 5, earning the big stage of Sunday Night Football. Kansas City knocked off Buffalo 39-24 in that conference title game in January, covering as a field-goal fave and easily going Over the 55-point total.

This primetime game is the lone homestand for the Chiefs between Week 4 and Week 7, and Arrowhead will be rocking, with well-oiled (and vaccinated) fans in the stands. Kansas City is 11-6 ATS in home primetime games since 2000 and hasn’t been this short a favorite at Arrowhead in the regular season since giving 3.5 points to Houston in Week 6 of the 2019 season.

Honorable mention

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (Pick’em, 48)
Russell Wilson had better make sure his mouthguard is up to snuff for this Thursday night run-in with the rival L.A. Rams. Los Angeles’ defense has been one of the few stop units able to contain Wilson. He posted a QB rating of just 74.1 with one TD, two INTs, and 11 sacks taken in two regular season meetings with L.A., then lost 30-20 to the Rams in the Wild Card Round, eating another five sacks in that playoff loss. If the Seahawks want to keep Russ happy, keep him upright.

Week 6
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5, 49)
The Chargers are a sleeper in the AFC with all eyes on the maturation of QB Justin Herbert. This mid-October trip to Baltimore for an early 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT) serves as a litmus test for the Bolts, who went 5-3 ATS on the road in 2020.

The Chargers have been a dependable road bet since moving to La-La Land in 2017, especially when getting more than a field goal from the oddsmakers, boasting a 6-3-1 ATS mark as road underdogs of +3.5 or more.

However, in true Chargers faceplant fashion, the Bolts are 3-7 SU in those contests and seven of those matchups were one-score games. So maybe steer clear of L.A.’s moneyline in this Week 6 matchup. It will be interesting if new head coach Brandon Staley can break that bad habit of losing close games.

Honorable mention

Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5, 45.5)
The NFL returns to the UK in 2021 as does the wake-and-rake 9:30 a.m. ET kickoffs. Nothing goes better with NFL betting than scrambled eggs, crispy bacon and a stiff cup of joe. This matchup also gives us a rematch of Tua Tagovailoa vs. Trevor Lawrence, who headlined the 2019 CFP National Championship. This trip across the pond is a tough schedule spot for the Fins, who will be playing their second straight away game and third in four weeks when they take the pitch at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Week 7
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-12, 46)
By the looks of that chunky point spread, this isn’t going to be a good game. But it’s the intrigue around the two quarterbacks – Jared Goff and Matt Stafford – facing their former teams that draws our attention. Rams coach Sean McVay knows Goff better than any QB in the league while Detroit rookie head coach Dan Campbell doesn’t have the same level of intel on Stafford.

The Lions also allowed 41 sacks in 2020 and face an L.A. pass rush that finished second in the NFL with 53 QB kills on the season. Will McVay and Stafford run it up on his former club? McVay is 6-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite since picking up the Rams’ reigns in 2017.

Honorable mention

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+4.5, 54.5)
The last time these AFC heavyweights clashed, the Titans were coughing up a 10-point lead in the second quarter of the 2020 AFC Championship Game, falling victim to another classic Patrick Mahomes comeback. The Chiefs will be playing their third road game in four weeks when they come to Music City in Week 7, while Tennessee is on a short week after hosting Buffalo that Monday night – a result that will have a huge influence on this spread.

Week 8
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 48)
This is a scrub of a game, likely featuring a rookie quarterback getting his first taste of Seattle’s 12th Man, and Wilson's previous two offensive coordinators returning on the opposite sideline. But I circle it for the rare trend tied into Jacksonville in Week 8. The Jaguars are coming off a bye week after playing Miami in London in Week 6 - a situation that once produced a 16-3-3 ATS streak.

However, this unique trend imploded in 2019. Teams coming off a bye after playing a UK game went 0-8 ATS that season. Due to the pandemic, the NFL canceled all of its international contests in 2020 but does have two London games on the board in 2021. The Dolphins strangely don’t get a bye following the Week 6 UK game, but the Jets and Falcons do after matching up at Hotspur Stadium in Week 5. Do what you want with this info...

Honorable mention

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-2, 49.5)
This “Halloween Night Spooktacular” could be a battle of two of the top teams in the NFC or, knowing the Cowboys and Vikings, maybe not. All I know is that I’ll be parked on my couch, “checking” my kids' Trick-or-Treat haul for poison candy. My Over/Under on Reese Cups consumed is pretty much on par with the 49.5-point total. Minnesota topped the number in seven of its eight home stands last season and is 11-5 O/U in its last 16 games inside U.S. Bank Stadium.

Week 9
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5, 49.5)
Yes, I know Green Bay plays Kansas City in Week 9. But baring a change of heart from Aaron Rodgers, that game is a dud. And do we really care about Carolina facing former QB Cam Newton? The Patriots will be on to Mac Jones by the midway mark of the schedule anyways.

This non-conference clash on Sunday Night Football is pretty sexy and should new faces like Matthew Stafford and Julio Jones work out, there’s a surplus of firepower on the field for both sides. Tennessee has a new offensive coordinator in Todd Downing, who will have to navigate Aaron Donald and L.A.’s pass rush. Luckily, he can lean on Derrick Henry to keep the Rams honest and Ryan Tannehill clean.

Honorable mention

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants (-1.5, 47.5)
If you like your spot bets, and God knows I do, the Raiders find themselves in a middle of a situational sandwich in Week 9. Las Vegas has to travel across the country to play a 1 p.m. ET start in the Meadowlands – a scenario that plagued this team when it was in Oakland. Those Raiders were 1-7 ATS in 1 p.m. starts between 2017 and 2019, however, the Sin City Silver and Black were 3-3 ATS in early kickoffs last year. Adding to this tricky kickoff is a possible lookahead spot to a homestand with Kansas City in Week 10.

Week 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team (+6.5, 50.5)
The Ryan Fitzpatrick Bowl in Week 10 is promising plenty of points, despite these two stop units ranking No. 3 and No. 5 respectively in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders last year. That said, Washington and Tampa Bay collided in the Wild Card Round last winter, with the Bucs taking a 31-23 win but the WFT covering as 10-point home pups.

Fitzpatrick is the leader in the clubhouse for the starting QB job in DC entering camp and he does have an underrated receiving corps lined up. That can be good and bad. It’s all or nothing with Fitz, who threw 13 INTs in 15 games with the Dolphins last year. He faces a title-winning defense that picked up 25 takeaways in 2020, including 15 interceptions.

Honorable mention

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3, 49.5)
This is potentially the most entertaining game of the year – if Rodgers sticks around Wisconsin for one more season. Between him and Russell Wilson, the Over/Under on Hail Mary TD bombs is set at 2.5. But you can’t help but notice bookies playing it safe with that sub-50 total. The Packers had only six games with closing totals of less than 50 points last year and went 5-1 O/U in those games.

Week 11
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 55)
This looks to be the highest Over/Under for the entire 2021 NFL season, according to the early lookahead lines. If Dak Prescott stays healthy for the Cowboys, blowing through this double nickel shouldn’t be an issue.

Dallas was an Over bettor’s dream before Dak’s gruesome injury in Week 5 last season, topping totals of 53, 56.5, and 58 points between Week 2 and Week 4. Part of that was the explosive passing game of America’s Team and part of it was a piss poor Dallas defense. Both should be in attendance at Arrowhead Stadium for this Week 11 gem.

Honorable mention

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 48)
The Sunday nighter in Week 11 could hold heavy playoff implications with both the Bolts and Steelers competing for division crowns or at least a Wild Card ticket. Can the ghost of Ben Roethlisberger survive this deep into the season? Pittsburgh fans hope so with the team going 10-6 SU and ATS as road underdogs of less than the field goal since Big Ben took over under center so many moons ago.

Week 12
Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5, 53)
Turkey. Stuffing. Pumpkin pie. Betting against the Cowboys. Fading America’s Team on Thanksgiving has become a beloved tradition, with Dallas going just 1-9 ATS on Turkey Day the past 10 seasons.

This year, the Cowboys welcome Vegas to Jerry’s World on the holiday which also happens to be their lone homestand in a five-game string from November 21 to December 19. Dallas is coming off a road game at Arrowhead and has just four days before this Thursday matinee in Week 12, which also boasts a lofty total at 53 points.

Honorable mention

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 46.5)
A classic AFC North rivalry between the former Browns and the current Browns on Sunday Night Football. Cleveland caught a 38-6 ass waxing the last time it showed up in M&T Bank Stadium and has been a bad bet on the road in divisional games. The Browns were 0-3 ATS visiting AFC North rivals last season and own a dismal 6-12 ATS mark in divisional road stops since 2015.

Week 13
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+4, 46)
Unlucky Week 13 has a few highlights but we’re looking into this NFC North matchup, with the Vikings playing their second straight road game and their fourth away outing in five weeks. That stretch features two trips to California, including a visit to San Francisco in Week 12 before hopping a plane to Detroit. Hopefully the Vikes are collecting frequent-flyer miles.

The Vikings could also get caught looking ahead to a home game versus Pittsburgh just four days later on Thursday Night Football in Week 14. The Lions are more than likely going to be god awful this year, with a win total of just five, but I’m always on the hunt for feisty underdogs at home.

Honorable mention

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (+1.5, 46)
I’m pretty high on Arizona entering Year 3 under Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray, but this trip to the Windy City in December could be a shock to the system for the desert-dwelling Cardinals, if the bitter Midwest winter shows up. Arizona is coming off a bye in Week 12, but the Bears enjoy a mini bye after playing on Thursday the previous week.

Week 14
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 53.5)

A potential Super Bowl preview in place for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. Josh Allen’s big arm and ability to wheel-and-deal will get tested by an aggressive Bucs pass rush and ball-hawking secondary. This is the shortest we find Tampa Bay at home in 2021 after it went 6-3 ATS inside Raymond James Stadium all of last year.

Tom Brady was a Bills killer in his time with New England and owns a career 32-3 SU record versus Buffalo, boasting a sterling 97.9 QB rating along with 70 touchdown passes and 25 interceptions in those meetings.

Honorable mention

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 46.5)
Didn’t we just mention this game? In a funky scheduling quirk, the Browns actually play back-to-back games against the Ravens with a Week 13 bye in between. So that’s three straight weeks of film study and prep focused solely on Baltimore. The Ravens, on the other hand, have a trip to Pittsburgh between battles with the Browns, and Week 14 will be the team’s third road game in four weeks.

Week 15
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-4, 48)
This NFC West war will more than likely swing the postseason pendulum in the conference, with both teams expected to contend for the playoffs. And even if one is on the outside looking in, they would love nothing more than to play spoiler in this Week 15 showdown.

As long as Russell Wilson has time on the clock and DK Metcalf clowning defensive backs, Seattle has a shot. The Seahawks are 17-8-2 ATS as road dogs since Wilson was the starter and are 8-2 ATS as divisional road pups.

Honorable mention

Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 49)
Oh, the weather outside could be frightful for this December 18 date in Orchard Park. Another frightful thought is the potential sandwich spot facing Buffalo, with the Panthers (and former AFC East rival Sam Darnold) placed between road trips to Tampa Bay in Week 14 and New England in Week 16. All the busted tables in upstate New York may not be able to cover this hefty spread.

Week 16
San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans (+1, 47)
One of the biggest mysteries entering the 2021 NFL season is the San Francisco 49ers. Will this team pick up where it left off before being ravaged by injuries last year? Or is the QB controversy between Jimmy Garoppolo and rookie Trey Lance going to consume this once-promising team?

Despite this game being the Niners’ third road trip in December, bookies are giving San Francisco the benefit of the doubt with this lookahead line, setting Tennessee as a slight home underdog in Week 16. The Titans are just 9-27 SU and 14-21-1 ATS when catching points at home since 2010.

Honorable mention

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (-5, 48)
The NFC East could be a log jam again in 2021 and this classic rivalry on Sunday Night Football could shakedown as a must-win game for one of these teams. That’s never a great scenario for the Cowboys, who have consistently stubbed their toe in these pressure spots. Washington football fans may want to give themselves a late Xmas present and take the points with the Football Team.

Week 17
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-5.5, 43.5)
We all know Bill Belichick feeds on the souls of rookie quarterbacks, going 20-5 SU against first-year passers since 2000. But what happens when the Hoodie is also starting a rookie QB? That could be the case if Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones square off in this 1 p.m. ET kickoff in Week 17.

This January 2 contest in Gillette Stadium will be a contrasting environment compared to the Florida sun and marks the third road game in four weeks for the Jaguars, who could just be counting down the days until the end of the season at this point. New England, on the other hand, may still be jockeying for position in a competitive AFC East.

Honorable mention

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Pick’em, 43.5)
So much bad blood on the table and a weighted game on Monday night with potential playoff implications. This is a tough spot for Pittsburgh, which runs the gauntlet to cap the campaign with a road trip to Kansas City in Week 16 and a matchup in Baltimore in Week 18. This is a pretty low total for today’s NFL standards, but the Steelers are 15-22-1 O/U in divisional matchups since 2015 (59 percent Unders).

Week 18
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+6, 49)
Holy shit, you read all the way to Week 18. Good stuff, thanks for sticking around. The NFL’s extra week will be packed with all shades of silliness on January 9, much like Week 17 used to be. You’ll have teams battling for playoff spots, teams resting their starters in prep for the postseason, and in the case of the Texans, you’ll have teams in full-on tank mode.

Houston has the shortest season win total of the 2021 NFL campaign, sitting at 4.5 wins, and lord knows what this roster will look at in the final week of the slate (Deshaun? No Deshaun?). Given those projections and the absolute buffoonery of this franchise, you can feel secure knowing the Texans will be tanking for the No. 1 pick – especially after going without a first-round selection the past two seasons. Tennessee, which will be in the playoff picture, is a steal at less than a TD right now.

Honorable mention

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+3, 45.5)
The last time these classic rivals clashed in Mile High, Kansas City was a touchdown road favorite. There are a couple of angles playing into this somewhat head-scratching spread: 1. The Chiefs are likely locked into a high playoff seed and resting bodies in Week 18. 2. Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback of the Broncos and has them vying for a postseason ticket of their own. 3. Deshaun Watson is the quarterback of the Broncos and has them vying for a postseason ticket of their own.

Michelangelo · Aug 2, 2021

Nice job, CNOTES.

Thanks.

CNOTES · Aug 3, 2021

Tuesday’s Den: Trends for NFC trends…..

Arizona Cardinals:
— Last made playoffs in 2015
— 1-3-1 SU in last five season openers.
— Since 2015, they’re 9-18 ATS as home favorites.
— Since 2018, they’re 10-6-2 ATS as road underdogs.

Atlanta Falcons:
— Last 3 years, they’re 18-30 SU
— Lost last 3 openers by 6-16-13 points.
— Since 2015, they’re 20-27 ATS coming off a loss.
— Since 2017, they’re 2-7 ATS as road favorites.

Carolina Panthers:
— They went 17-2 in 2015, lost Super Bowl, are 34-47 since then.
— Since 2012, they’re 7-16-1 ATS as road favorites, 34-16 as road dogs.
— Last two years, Carolina is 4-11-1 ATS at home.
— Last four years, over is 20-12 in Panther home games.

Chicago Bears:
— Bears haven’t won a playoff game (0-2) since 2010.
— Chicago lost six of last seven season openers.
— Last two years, they’re 4-10-1 ATS off a loss.
— Last four years, under is 21-11 in their home games.

Dallas Cowboys:
— Over last 20 years, Dallas is 4-7 in playoff games.
— Last three years, Cowboys are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs.
— Last three years, over is 16-8 in their home games.
— Last 3 years, they’re 2-8 ATS as favorite of 3 or fewer points.

Detroit Lions:
— Last three years, they’re 14-33-1 SU, minus-20 in turnovers.
— Which is why they have a new GM, coach, QB.
— Last three years, they’re 7-15-1 ATS at home.
— Last two years, Lions are 6-13-2 ATS coming off a loss.
— Since 2014, they’re 9-19-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or fewer points.

Green Bay Packers
— Last two years, they’re 26-6 SU, with +24 turnover ratio.
— Packers are 30-18-2 ATS in last 50 games as a home favorite.
— Since 2015, under is their home games.
— Last nine years, they’re 14-21-1 ATS on artificial turf.

Los Angeles Rams
— McVay is 43-21 SU in four years with the Rams.
— 10 years before that, Rams were 46-113 SU.
— Last two years, under is 13-3 in their home games.
— Rams won/covered last four season openers.
— McVay’s first 2 years, Rams were +19 in turnovers; last two years, minus-3.

Minnesota Vikings:
— Did not having fans matter? Over was 7-1 in their home games LY; from 2016-19, under was 20-10-2 in Viking home games.
— Zimmer is 26-16-1 ATS as home favorite, despite going 1-6 LY.
— Last three years, they’re 8-15-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2014, they’re 17-9 ATS as favorites of 3 or fewer points.

New Orleans Saints
— Last time Drew Brees wasn’t the Saints’ QB? 2005 (Aaron Brooks)
— Last 4 years, Saints were 49-15 SU (+39 in turnovers, 3-4 in playoffs)
— Since 2014, over is 36-20 in the Superdome.
— Since 2015, they’re 20-9-1 ATS coming off a loss.

New Jersey Giants
— Last four years, Giants are 18-46 SU.
— Giants won Super Bowl in 2011; since then, they’re 0-1 in playoffs.
— Last 3 years, they’re 4-14 ATS as home underdogs, 16-4 as road dogs.
— Since 2016, under is 24-16 in their home games.

Philadelphia Eagles:
— Eagles won eight of last ten season openers.
— Last three years, they’re 5-13 ATS as home favorites.
— Since 2016, under is 28-12 in Philly home games.
— Last three years, they’re 8-16 ATS coming off a loss.

San Francisco 49ers
— 49ers made playoffs once in last seven years.
— Last three years, they’re 4-12-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Last two years, they’re 9-3 ATS as an underdog.
— Last four years, they’re 11-5 ATS vs AFC teams.

Seattle Seahawks
— Finished over .500 last nine years (9-7 in playoff games)
— Since 2012, underdogs are 17-6-3 ATS in their NFC West road games.
— Since 2011, they’re 31-16-4 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last 3 years, they’re 11-5-3 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
— Bucs were +8 in turnovers LY; previous two years, they were minus-31.
— Last four years, over is 23-9 in their road games.
— Since 2017, Bucs are 10-2-1 ATS as home dogs, 6-11-4 as road dogs.
— Bucs won Super Bowl in 2002 and last year; the 17 years in between, they were 0-2 in playoff games.

Washington
— Last 20 years, they’re 1-5 in playoffs; the win was in 2005.
— Last three years, they’re 12-8-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last three years, they’re 11-5 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2015, they’re 26-15-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.