Sunday Service Play Thread 09/05/2021

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Tokyo Brandon? 5 games already started early...

Teddy Covers

E% B: Carolina
D%: Denver
C% New England – Miami: FIRST HALF UNDER
C% - Baltimore

Matt Severance

NOTRE DAME @ FLORIDA ST. | 09/05 | 7:30 PM EDT
FLORIDA ST. +8
ANALYSIS: OK, well I have to respond to Micah Roberts -- who, let's be clear, probably knows more about odds than I ever will. Completely disagree here. The Noles are gonna be scary good with McKenzie Milton, and the Irish have among the fewest returning starters in college football. New QB Jack Coan lost his job at Wisconsin. Not saying FSU will win but .. yeah. I'll happily take the points. Eighteen of the past 19 years an AP Top 10 wasn't ranked at end. If you watched Early Edge recently, I believe that's the Irish. Also believe Brian Kelly will be in the NFL after this year.

Micah Roberts

NOTRE DAME @ FLORIDA ST. | 09/05 | 7:30 PM EDT
NOTRE DAME -8
ANALYSIS: Florida State gets a chance for revenge after Notre Dame beat the Seminoles 42-26 last season in South Bend. On paper, Florida State coach Mike Norvell should produce much better results in his second season than last year (3-6). But I feel uneasy about the Seminoles' chances to compete due to several transfers, new recruits and no established identity. Notre Dame has nine new starters on offense, but the Irish have stability with Brian Kelly and his staff and a massive offensive line with star RB Kyren Williams back. Notre Dame to cover.

Martin Green

2022 Concacaf World Cup Qualifying

Jamaica vs. Panama (Sunday, 6 p.m. ET)

Jamaica to win -133 (one unit)
Jamaica over 1.5 goals +105 (half unit)

West Ham striker Michail Antonio should make his debut for Jamaica when it hosts Panama in Kingston on Sunday.

The Hammers forward has made a blistering start to the new Premier League season, firing in four goals and providing three assists in his first three games. He should give the Reggae Boyz some much-needed bite in attack.

Jamaica has been trying to convince Antonio to represent it for many years. He has previously been called up to the England squad, but he has never actually played a game, and he has now made himself available for Jamaica, which should give the team a boost ahead of this vital game.

Premier League Stars Return for Jamaica

Jamaica was missing several key players for its 2-1 defeat to Mexico at Estadio Azteca on Thursday due to regulations laid down by the UK government.

The UK has placed Mexico and Costa Rica on its red list. That means anyone visiting those countries must enter an extended quarantine period after returning to the UK.

English and Scottish clubs therefore refused to allow their players to represent Jamaica in its away games against Mexico and Costa Rica during this international break. It deprived the Reggae Boyz of the services of Antonio, Aston Villa's Leon Bailey, Derby's Ravel Morrison, Fulham's Bobby Decordova-Reid and Rangers' Kemar Roofe in the defeat to Mexico.

However, Jamaica is on the UK's amber list, so that means they can all represent their country on Sunday.

Jamaica came within a whisker of earning a point in Mexico City on Thursday. Shamar Nicholson cancelled out Alexis Vega's strike, and it was still 1-1 with a minute left on the clock, but then Henry Martín struck a late winner.

Mexico fully deserved the win. It had 73% of the possession, 27 shots on goal and seven on target, whereas Jamaica's only shot on target was Nicholson's goal.

However, it should be a different prospect with Antonio and Bailey in attack for this upcoming clash with Panama.

Panama Lacked Attacking Spark Against Costa Rica

We are now in the final round of qualifying for the World Cup. Eight teams are battling for three automatic qualification slots, while the fourth placed team will head into an intercontinental playoff.

Panama began the round with a drab 0-0 draw against an understrength Costa Rica on Thursday. The Costa Ricans were missing the likes of Bryan Ruiz and Joel Campbell, and Panama dominated the game, but it could not find a breakthrough.

It may struggle to deal with the pace and physicality of this Jamaican team on Sunday. It finished 1-0 to Jamaica when these teams last met. The game took place in Philadelphia in the 2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup, and a second-half penalty from Darren Mattocks settled it.

Jamaica looks a lot stronger now. This is a must-win game for the Reggae Boyz, as they will be missing all their UK-based stars once again for the following match against Costa Rica.

Antonio will be keen to make an impact on his debut, and Jamaica should have enough pace, flair and power in attack to get the three points

Alan Scozzari Sport

GOY B Wager
Spain LaLiga2
Zaragoza 0 +0,5 -114

Andrew McInnis

4% - Notre Dame at Florida State
Total Under 55.5 (-110)

Micah Roberts

NASCAR

1 #24 William Byron (15-1) -- This is much more than a hunch because he drives for the best team (Hendrick Motorsports), possesses the best equipment and has a bright future in the sport. But, yeah, it's still a hunch. He hasn't won at Darlington in any series, but I told myself after each of the last two races there that he was a driver that displayed the ability to respect "The Lady in Black" while also getting sneaky-fast finishes when she turned away. Byron was fifth in this race last season and fourth on the track in May. He knows how it works. Jeff Gordon found out how it works early on, as did Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin and, eventually, Kevin Harvick. Byron has what it takes to win at Darlington.

2 #11 Denny Hamlin (5-1) -- "The Lady in Black" has had a crush on him since he started. He knows how to handle her in both series. He has three Cup Series wins (2010, 2017, 2020), 10 top-five finishes and 598 laps led, but his excellence on her is probably better explained in the Xfinity Series, in which he hardly ever races but recorded five wins at Darlington from 2006-17. Hamlin saves his tires better than anyone and doesn't lose as much speed as others in long green-flag runs. He posted seven wins last year but none in 2021. This is a great look for him to get his first win. Shop around for better prices than what Caesars is offering.

3 #5 Kyle Larson (11-4) -- He leads all active drivers with a sixth-place average finish in his seven starts at Darlington, which includes a runner-up in May. He also was runner-up in his previous race there in 2019 and finished third in 2018. He's led 500 laps and should have won the 2018 race after winning the first two stages and leading 284 laps. Larson has a better car now, and recorded three wins in his last six while using the low downforce package. He's a strong favorite, but shop around for the best price.

4 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (9-2) -- He's been stuck on three victories since winning at Darlington on May 9. He's a two-time winner there and has averaged an 11th-place finish while leading 692 laps. I like Truex, but not at Caesars Sportsbook's price.

5 #18 Kyle Busch (11-2) -- He won at Darlington in 2008, when they had only one race per season and had eliminated the famous tradition of the Southern 500 on Labor Day weekend. It's back now, but Busch still hasn't won it yet. He has just one win in 19 starts there, six top-fives and 725 laps led. He's averaged a 10th-place finish. Neither of his two wins in 2021 has come with this week's package.

6 #9 Chase Elliott (10-1) -- He won an Xfinity Series race at Darlington in 2014, and he's come close to a victory in the Cup Series, but it hasn't happened yet. He was seventh in May and was fourth in the first race last season. Elliott posted both his 2021 wins using this week's race package, and he's part of a Hendrick team that should have a great day.

7 #22 Joey Logano (15-1) -- I've already made my bet on him, even though he's never won a Cup Series race at Darlington, but he did win a 2012 Xfinity Series race there. He was 13th in May and has four top-fives in 15 starts on the track. I like him this week because of his performance all season with the 750-horsepower package. It's what he's used to grab all eight of his top-fives and only victory (Bristol Dirt Race) of the year.

8 #48 Alex Bowman (20-1) -- His best finish at Darlington was the first of three races last season in which he was runner-up, and then he was sixth in this race. He was 17th there in May. Since his win at Dover in May, Bowman hasn't had a top-five finish using this week's package, a span of seven races. He still has Hendrick race equipment, which makes him capable of winning.

9 #20 Christopher Bell (30-1) -- Four Cup Series starts at Darlington have produced a 20th-place average finish. It's a tough place for most young drivers, but he'll have a car capable of racing for the win like his JGR teammates, and he's been really good in the low downforce package - which includes his only win on the Daytona Road Course.

10 #12 Ryan Blaney (22-1) -- He's gathered more Darlington Stripes than good races there, averaging a 19th-place finish in nine starts. He gets high marks for top-fives in two of his last three races using the 750-HP package. Blaney will be riding the momentum from his Daytona Superspeedway win last week.

11 #2 Brad Keselowski (15-1) -- He's averaged an 11th-place finish in 15 Cup Series starts at Darlington, including his only win in 2018, five top-fives and 384 laps led. He has found the front in nine of his last 10 races there.

12 #1 Kurt Busch (40-1) -- In 27 Cup Series starts at Darlington, he has only four top-fives and a 16th-place average finish. He's led 365 laps over his career on the 1.336-mile layout. He'll be driving Michael Jordan's No. 45 Toyota next season, joining Bubba Wallace's No. 23.

13 #8 Tyler Reddick (40-1) -- He drives like someone that has had success at Darlington because he's not all over the place. He saves his tires by running the same smooth lines every lap, and usually does so while running the high line. He'll get another Darlington Stripe on his right side, a badge of honor of sorts.

14 #4 Kevin Harvick (15-2) -- He and "The Lady in Black" have gotten along very well, especially in the 10 races since he joined SHR in 2014, when he won the first of three. He was ninth or better in all 10 races, with a win last September to begin the playoffs and another in May 2020, which was the first race back after the COVID-19 shutdown. Harvick was sixth at Darlington this season and leads all active drivers in top-five finishes (11), top-10s (16) and laps led (792) there. He hasn't been very good with the 750-HP package, recording only one top-five in 14 starts. He posted nine wins last year but none in 2021.

15 #6 Ryan Newman (300-1) -- His 10th-place in May was his first top-10 since finishing seventh in 2017. He recorded all seven of his top-fives at Darlington in his first 13 starts there. He has a 12.2 average finish and 339 laps led in 25 starts on the track.

16 #21 Matt DiBenedetto (60-1) -- He has a 20th-place average finish in nine Cup Series starts at Darlington, with a best of eighth in 2019, and was ninth last season.

17 #17 Chris Buescher (300-1) -- In eight Cup Series starts at Darlington, he has an 18th-place average finish but posted his career-best of ninth place in May. It's one of Roush Fenway Racing's better runs of the season.

18 #14 Chase Briscoe (300-1) -- He gets consideration this week due to high odds. running well of late, driving an SHR Ford and, maybe best of all, his win at Darlington in the Xfinity Series last season. He gets the track with the quirky corners on each side and the abrasiveness of the asphalt. In his first Cup Series start there in May, he finished 11th.

19 #10 Aric Almirola (75-1) -- The last time the series was on an oval with the 750-HP package was at New Hampshire in late July, and he won after leading 25 laps. Stewart-Haas Racing has improved drastically. The track itself has been tough on Almirola, as he's averaged an 18th-place finish in 12 Cup Series starts.

20 #42 Ross Chastain (100-1) -- After three Cup Series finishes of 28th or worse at Darlington, he came in a career-best 15th on May 9 and even led his first laps (10). The low downforce package has been his most consistent in the second half of the season.

Elite Sports Picks

Milwaukee (Burnes) -1.5 runs -115 over St. Louis (Lester)

Insider Sports Report
D* Seattle (Flexen) -145 over Arizona (Gilbert)
Range: -130 to -170
C* Chicago White Sox (Cease)/Kansas City (Singer) UNDER 9
Range: 9.5 to 8.5
C* Notre Dame/Florida St. UNDER 56 (NCAAF)
Range: 58 to 54

National Sports Service
E* Atlanta (Morton) -1.5 runs -115 over Colorado (Gomber)
C* Florida St. +7 over Notre Dame (NCAAF)

Primetime Sports Picks
D Unit --> Chicago Cubs (Davies) -145 over Pittsburgh (Crowe)
C Unit --> Chicago White Sox (Cease)/Kansas City (Singer) UNDER 9
C Unit --> Notre Dame -7 over Florida St. (NCAAF)

Top Rank Sports Picks
D★ Tampa Bay (Patino) -1.5 runs -110 over Minnesota (Jax)
C★ Notre Dame/Florida St. OVER 56 (NCAAF)

dubaibets asia

EUROPE: World Cup – Qualification
Bulgaria – Lithuania
Bulgaria -1
Odds : 1.95

H&H Sports

CFB
Triple Dime - Notre Dame -6.5 [-120]

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White Sox ML

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VegasEliteSports


Redsox -1.5(lock of the week)
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Both GUARANTEED LOCKS!

Wise guy sports


500 Dime | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers ML & New York Yankees ML (2 Team Parlay)

1,000 Dime | MLB | Under 8 1/2 (Whitesox/Royals)

2,000 Dime | MLB | Cincinnati Reds -1 1/2

3,000 Dime | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers -1 1/2

4,000 Dime | CFB | Under 55 1/2 (Florida State/Notre Dame)

5,000 Dime | CFB | Notre Dame -7

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