Week 3: Three Early Plays. More Later

ofred · Sep 13, 2021

Hit the CCU play Friday, and 3 out of top 4, but late plays stunk. Got to stop playing Navy! YTD: 19-13, +12.25 units 4-4 on Leans.
Only won 2.7 units last week.

I have already lost a point or more on these by waiting until late Monday, but it's possible the lines get worse by tomorrow or later in week.

3.5* MSU +7 (-116) Watch out for this Michigan State offense. It's so foreign to us that MSU might have a really well balanced offense, with the defense being not what we're used to(it's decent, not great). MSU has gotten a ton of transfers, some guys back from injuries, and they will be a tough game for everyone- I think. The OL also looks much improved. Kenneth Walker ate up Northwestern, but only got 7 carries vs. FCS Youngstown. It's still early, but Walker shows great vision, patience, can cut on a dime, and runs with strength and speed. They also have a couple of go-to WRs in Reed and Nailor. The QB, Payton Thorne, beat out veteran Anthony Russo for good reason. He's not fully there yet, but nice touch on his passes, and feel for the pocket. He can also run the ball effectively. Part of this play is that Miami still seems to be an undisciplined mess. D'Eriq King saved them from an App. State upset, but for a guy off a serious injury, he is counted on to run too much. He won't last the season with his OL caving like it is. The D and special teams also are likely to get carved up by MSU. I'll give Miami the advantage of the home field, but it won't be enough. A little on the ML.

3* Pitt/ WMU- over 60 This line already jumped up 2 points, and I'll be pissed if it ends up at 58-60. I watched much of the Pitt-Tennessee game, and I tell you, Kenny Pickett was magnificent. NFL scouts had to be impressed. The Vols defense wasn't too bad either. Pickett made great decisions, moved when needed, and threw many beautiful passes. Against a weak WMU defense, Pitt should score in the 40s somewhere. But Pitt's defense wasn't that good and I expect WMU and Eleby to score a decent amount of points too. Pitt did get some sacks and a couple of fumbles vs. the Vols, but considering how awful the Tennessee QBs were, well...Eleby is another NFL prospect, who struggled vs. a tough Michigan defense, but still had 191 yards passing. They went vanilla against Illinois State, but WMU will have to open up their offense to keep up with Pitt. HC Tim Lester is pretty good offensive coach, and I expect he'll know this will be a game where a lot of points will be needed to win. WMU also has pretty good run game to make them diversified and keep Pitt from pinning their ears back on the rush.

ofred · Sep 13, 2021

3* Georgia State -4 Got burned playing them vs. UNC last week, but I think they know this week they are playing for their season. This is a team of upperclassmen, playing at home vs. a weak defensive team like Charlotte. Georgia State was kind of like this last year, bipolar. Great ups, great downs. In the game of football, which is so damn physical and grueling, a pervasive pride makes players really play with an incredible effort when you are off of 2 bad losses. Army and UNC were two teams they really weren't prepared for, but I think they can beat up on a Charlotte team that really doesn't have any glaring strength, and at 2-0, can afford a loss.

indiana · Sep 13, 2021

Fred......appreciate the early thought's buddy.......solid looking.....

great write ups......will be on these with you.......indy

ofred · Sep 13, 2021

o fred said:
3* Georgia State -4 Got burned playing them vs. UNC last week, but I think they know this week they are playing for their season. This is a team of upperclassmen, playing at home vs. a weak defensive team like Charlotte. Georgia State was kind of like this last year, bipolar. Great ups, great downs. In the game of football, which is so damn physical and grueling, a pervasive pride makes players really play with an incredible effort when you are off of 2 bad losses. Army and UNC were two teams they really weren't prepared for, but I think they can beat up on a Charlotte team that really doesn't have any glaring strength, and at 2-0, can afford a loss.

Duke rushed for 352 yards on Charlotte, at 8 ypc. Even crappy FCS Gardner-Webb ran on them for 4.1 ypc.

JBS39 · Sep 14, 2021

Thx Fred

iamhuge · Sep 14, 2021

Can we put a stop – please – on Miami once again being “the U”? This team has been living off of the faded glory of Jimmy Johnson and Larry “Let’s Do” Coker for decades now. Poor D'eriq King had given them a spark of credibility but sadly he’s not the same athlete he was prior to his injury and this team just isn’t as explosive offensively as they need to be to compete in the upper echelons of college football, at least not this year.
The fact that Bama thrashed the Canes just as badly as they beat Mercer last week isn’t too revealing, but what is more troubling is that they weren’t able to separate themselves from Appalachian State. In fact, Miami was really lucky to win that game…at home and down at halftime. What’s worse is that it’s likely that Miami lost two of their best players – RB Don Chaney Jr and LB Keontra Smith – two leg injuries in that game. Yes, Appalachian State is a good team, but they are a team that Miami is supposed to beat at home. They were really close to being an 0-2 team. A two-point win at home over an unranked opponent doesn’t justify a 6 point cushion over Sparty.
This isn’t your Sparty of last year. It’s time to believe what you see. Many of Michigan State's starters in 2021 are new additions via the hated transfer portal. Michigan State is 2-0 and they are averaging 40 points per game. Most impressive is their road win at Northwestern where they put up 38 points and over 500 yards against a team that only gave up 15 points per game last year, and played in the Big 10 championship. Even more eye popping was their 326 yards on the ground and 8.8 yards per carry in that game. You know what happens when you can run for 8.8 yards per carry on the road? You win, that’s what happens. Sparty followed that up with 272 yards rushing and 7.2 yards per carry last week against Youngstown State. Michigan State is ranked #3 in the country in yards rushing. Talk about finding a way to quiet a crowd. While the Hurricanes are capable of stopping the run, they are far from stout.
There’s no secret to what MSU will try to do on Saturday and, without Keontra Smith Miami is going to have to suck it up and take it. Their QB Thorne is the type of quarterback that Michigan State needed this year: a passer who makes good decisions and protects the football. Thorne has completed 29-of-46 passes for 458 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions this year. With this kind of running attack and a sure handed QB, the Spartans will neutralize Miami’s big play defense which emphasizes running off the field with your helmet off and posing for the camera with the turnover chain. Miami is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games, and reputation alone isn’t going to be enough for them to keep the Spartans off the scoreboard to secure a comfy victory. In fact, this is going to be a physical game that will test every inch of the Hurricanes. I am taking the points and the road dogs +6.

ofred · Sep 15, 2021

Looks like another MSU bettor dropped in to add their entire write-up in the thread. Oh well....

3* USC -8 Maybe I should have paid to get this down to 7, but I have a good feeling about this game. It was ridiculous to fire Clay Helton two games into the season. He should have been fired after the 2020 season, and according to USC fans, even before that. USC might finally have some inspiration to play to their abilities. Over the last many seasons, USC seems to play better when they are least expected to play well. Now they don't have the distraction of "Will Coach Helton get fired now?" hanging over their heads. They get to play on the road, away from the SoCal noise, and the USC players actually should play hard and well for interim coach Dante Williams. He's got that "it" factor that makes him a good recruiter, and he's close to the defensive players. And for all Helton's faults, a lot of these USC players were recruited by him and liked him as a person.

Wazzu has their own problems. They got outplayed at home vs. a pretty bad Utah State team game 1, and although they beat Portland State last week, they only out yarded them by 42 yards. Portland State has maybe the worst D in the Big Sky. HC Rolovich is being coy about the vaccine mandate. He's the highest paid employee in the state of Washington and won't man up to say whether he's vaccinated or not. Maybe he's getting tested every day? WSU lost their top WR Renard Bell to an ACL injury, and seems to be thin in the secondary. The Cougs are coming off two seasons where they got gouged defensively, and have been small up in the defensive front 7. QB Jayden DeLaura has been on and off in his 6 games with WSU. If he plays really well, USC might not cover. Mostly I like this play because I think USC will play well for their old coach... and for their new coach too. Momentous events can unify a team.

CoorsLight · Sep 15, 2021

GL Fred. Thanks for the plays

ofred · Sep 15, 2021

A couple of adjustment to earlier plays:
Michigan State now a 4*. USC now a 2.5*. A little extra juice on MSU to get the +7.

ofred · Sep 15, 2021

3* Army -20 1H (-115) This is the best line I could find. Just in case it's 27-7 or 20-0 because Army misses an extra point. My take on this is that we might be seeing even more obscene lines involving UConn in the future. Even after last week's coaching change, UConn couldn't muster anything 1st half vs. Purdue, and that was at home. Their Holy Cross loss also might point out just where this UConn team is. Holy Cross outplayed them, winning by 10, and out yarding them by 100. UConn had 262 yards vs. a FCS team that plays in one of the lowest FCS conferences and has a 25-73 record vs. FCS non-conference opponents the last 3 years. Holy Cross also lost to Merrimack, a team from the NEC Conference, and picked to finish 5th.

UConn is missing two key WRs to injuries, and has to somehow prepare in a week for Army's offense. Much better defenses have a hard time with that. (finish the write-up later)

ofred · Sep 15, 2021

o fred said:
3* Army -20 1H (-115) This is the best line I could find. Just in case it's 27-7 or 20-0 because Army misses an extra point. My take on this is that we might be seeing even more obscene lines involving UConn in the future. Even after last week's coaching change, UConn couldn't muster anything 1st half vs. Purdue, and that was at home. Their Holy Cross loss also might point out just where this UConn team is. Holy Cross outplayed them, winning by 10, and out yarding them by 100. UConn had 262 yards vs. a FCS team that plays in one of the lowest FCS conferences and has a 25-73 record vs. FCS non-conference opponents the last 3 years. Holy Cross also lost to Merrimack, a team from the NEC Conference, and picked to finish 5th.

UConn is missing two key WRs to injuries, and has to somehow prepare in a week for Army's offense. Much better defenses have a hard time with that. (finish the write-up later)

Army has crushed their first two opponents first half, and if not for an incredible 4th quarter performance by WKU's QB Bailey Zappe, would be easily 2-0 ATS. (You'll be hearing more about Zappe in the future). Army also is working extra hard in practice this week due to mistakes and missed tackles from last week's near disaster meltdown to WKU. I think they'll come out full bore this game with little sympathy for a pathetic UConn team. My only concerns are a fluke score by UConn or that Army eats so much time with their long time-consuming drives. They can pass the ball a little better, and I expect some of their runs to be long ones, so maybe nothing of big concern. A little on the -34 too.

ofred · Sep 15, 2021

2.5* UC -3 (-130) Maybe regretfully (probably not) I'll jump aboard the train of bettors to take UC. The line started at -1.5, crossed the 3 to 3.5, stalled, and is now at 4 at many places. So obvious sharp money along with all of us public bettors. UC's best game last year might have been their only loss- the 3 point Peach Bowl loss to Georgia. Is Luke Fickell the best coach win college football? Perhaps. Is he the best at getting the most out of his talent by coaching them up? And does UC personify "team" when you watch them play? Fickell has already turned down some Power 5 jobs, which must endear him to his players. Not many Group of 5 coaches would do that. Maybe he'll take one after this season, maybe not. USC should be begging.

UC was good at 11-3 in 2019, but still lost two games at the end to Memphis. Last year, they beat 16th ranked SMU on the road, along with Tulsa and UCF. Desmond Ridder has gone from a decently well regarded "college-type" QB to a legit middle round NFL prospect. They have another very good defense, especially on the DL and in the secondary. Another reason I like this play is that Indiana is coming off a 6-2 season in which they depended so much on Michael Penix playing beyond sensational for 3-4 games. He finally got injured, another ACL...and the 3rd season ending injury. It's too early to tell where he is at. He played terribly at Iowa, only passed for 68 yards vs. Idaho, but observers think he looks less mobile, less sure of himself(one of his greatest strengths usually), and his passing mechanics aren't right. They pounded Idaho, but mostly with scores off blocked punts, punt returns, a turnover and short fields from an inept Idaho offense. Stephen Carr finally had a good game at RB, maybe his first since 2019. I saw him at USC multiple times, and he transferred because he was 3rd string this year. Indiana still has a pretty good defense, and they are at home, but I wonder if the offense is just going to be a semi-mess this year and when will Penix get dinged up or seriously hurt. UC was off their game 1H vs. Murray State last week before massacring them 2H . Probably looking ahead to this much anticipated game vs. a Big 10 team, with a hyped up QB, and just across the state line. Take Fickell.

FORGETABOUTIT · Sep 16, 2021

o fred said:
3* Army -20 1H (-115) This is the best line I could find. Just in case it's 27-7 or 20-0 because Army misses an extra point. My take on this is that we might be seeing even more obscene lines involving UConn in the future. Even after last week's coaching change, UConn couldn't muster anything 1st half vs. Purdue, and that was at home. Their Holy Cross loss also might point out just where this UConn team is. Holy Cross outplayed them, winning by 10, and out yarding them by 100. UConn had 262 yards vs. a FCS team that plays in one of the lowest FCS conferences and has a 25-73 record vs. FCS non-conference opponents the last 3 years. Holy Cross also lost to Merrimack, a team from the NEC Conference, and picked to finish 5th.

UConn is missing two key WRs to injuries, and has to somehow prepare in a week for Army's offense. Much better defenses have a hard time with that. (finish the write-up later)

My guy just made this Saturday’s 1st half lines available and his line is Army -28.5 for 1st half, so additional players must be out for UConn since you posted. Great job of getting on that one early! Best of luck to you.

ofred · Sep 16, 2021

FORGETABOUTIT said:
My guy just made this Saturday’s 1st half lines available and his line is Army -28.5 for 1st half, so additional players must be out for UConn since you posted. Great job of getting on that one early! Best of luck to you.

Check with another book. I only see a slight move.

FORGETABOUTIT · Sep 16, 2021

o fred said:
Check with another book. I only see a slight move.

my fault… I was looking at the 1st half total number, not the spread. Thanks

ofred · Sep 16, 2021

1* Maryland -7 Illinois had an inspirational win game one vs. Nebraska. Coach Bielema got his boys psyched up enough, Nebraska made plenty of mistakes, and it was a good way for them to start their season. Now, they are back to being Illinois. Same crappy defense, can't stop the run, QB problems, Mike Epstein injured again, etc. I held back on this because Bielema really is the right guy to turn this program around, they're at home, maybe another inspirational win? Maryland might just be too good to make that true. With a team like Maryland, they could be on the verge of breaking out, and if healthy, winning 8-9 games. The offense is loaded, with WRs that could be the 2nd best of the Big 10. They showed some of that last season. Even the OL looks much improved. Maryland's opening win vs. WVU had an odd score. They only won by 6, but out yarded WVU by 170 yards, and were +4 in TOs. Looks like wasted opportunities. Maryland also looks better on the defensive side, holding WVU to 325 yards and 2.3 ypc. Illinois might get a few scores, but they can't keep up. The 7 might be the best number you'll get with no extra juice. On the high side of a 1*.

ofred · Sep 17, 2021

1* Georgia -31
1* Georgia -18 Both of these plays have a little extra juice over 110. By week 3 most seasons, there are a few blowout games. I try to find 1 or 2 that look good. Army was one, this is the other. Georgia's defense might actually be better than any they've had in the past, maybe up there with Alabama. You can make a case that a defense this strong is also an offensive weapon. Turnovers, short fields, discouraged opponents... Georgia already has 34 QB hurries in just two games(one vs. Clemson, one vs. UAB, who is a one of the better teams in their conf.). And Pro Football Focus has graded the South Carolina OL as the worst of 12 in the SEC so far. Coach Beamer took issue with that, even after complimenting PFF on their analytics. Doesn't he also have better things to do than make statements to the press about such things? Like keeping Zeb Noland, a fairly immobile QB, from getting killed. I know this is a huge line, especially since JT Daniels and Stetson Bennett are dinged up. They and Carson Beck are all taking reps this week. Any of them will do. I thought about the under 47, but what if SC gets beat 51-7, when even the Georgia subs keep the beating going. Kirby Smart has done it before. And because even a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while, SC could score here. Any 7 they put up can endanger this play, so keep it sane.

ofred · Sep 17, 2021

1* PSU/ Auburn- under 52.5 Haven't been too good on the 1* plays, but I can't resist. Auburn has slaughtered two creampuffs so far, two really bad teams. This might be their first game since 2019 in front of a large hostile crowd. And the PSU crowd can get loud. Bo Nix has played so-so on the road, and with the noise, and increased intensity of a game after 2 easy wins at home...I think Auburn runs the ball a lot. Now that Gus is gone, the super up-tempo offense is also gone. Auburn also will have to deal with a defense that is a huge step up from their earlier games. PSU might have had success offensively vs. Ball State, but their offense really struggled vs. Wisconsin. Auburn's defense is still a ? mark, but indications early are that it should be improved from last season. I just don't see Sean Clifford as much better than average. He moves well, but his accuracy passing on the run can be poor. Too many turnovers, sometimes gets in a funk over a bad play. PSU will sometimes play up tempo, but Auburn's defense and coaching is used to it. They practiced the last many years against their own up temp offense, and others in the SEC. Grass field might also slow things down.

ofred · Sep 17, 2021

Leans:
Virginia +8 My favorite of the leans. Their offense is difficult to prepare for, and I still think UNC is overrated.
UAB -13 They will want to wipe out the taste of their thrashing at Georgia. UAB is much better vs. teams like UNT. UNT has a Swiss cheese defense, and are lacking at the QB position.
La. Tech +11 SMU on the road, and LT might actually have a much better than expected offense.

Still waiting for the FCS lines to come out.

ofred · Sep 18, 2021

Maryland can move the ball down the field , but can't finish for the TD. Final game. 3-0 on FCS games.

Lean: Oregon St/ Idaho- under 63.5 Wet and windy in Corvallis. Idaho has a decent defense, but offensively not good. With the PAC 12 schedule coming up, I expect OSU to stay vanilla, and run a lot. Especially if they get a large lead 2H. The Beavers are not a deep team and can ill afford injuries.