Week 4: Follow Up?

ofred · Sep 19, 2021

After a weekend where everything went right, can I follow it up with another profitable Saturday? We'll see. I do like these first two Sunday night.

YTD: 27-15, +30.5 units. 8-1 on larger plays

4.5 NC State/ Clemson- under 47 Is Clemson going to be the ultimate under team? I betting so for now. The linemakers sometimes take a week or two to catch up to a trend. Clemson plays a much better defense in the Wolfpack this week, and it's at their place. NC State will be salivating at the chance for a chance to upset Goliath. Clemson's defense actually looks better this season. They are doing everything possible to set up their offense for some scores. But the offense looks awful so far. It's debatable about their OL. Some observers say it looks okay, Clemson fans don't think so. DJU is definitely not himself of the 2020 version. He looks uncomfortable and indecisive. I don't think playing at Carter-Finley will help his confidence. Clemson also doesn't have the dynamic run game or possibly the receivers of past years. NC State has played two easy team in USF and Furman, but vs. Miss. State, they defended well. They're tough to run on. They lost stud LB Payton Wilson to injury, but that is their deepest unit on defense and should be okay. Now Clemson will have to limit Devin Leary in the pass game, and NC State needs Leary to have a big game. NC State couldn't run on MSU, and I doubt they run on Clemson. I got to believe this total drops.

3.5* Michigan State -4 (-112) Another line that I expect to move. I thought it would open at 7, and I liked it there. Like the other game, are linemakers not believers yet that Sparty is that good? Betting on it this week. (finish later)

ofred · Sep 20, 2021

MSU -4 (continued) One of the most impressive aspects of their win at Miami was that in the broiling temperatures, in the 4th quarter, heat that they were not accustomed to, Michigan State dominated. They were not only conditioned enough to play 60 minutes with an opponent that was favored by a TD, in the heat, they played better than they had at any time this season. D'Eriq King played well, and the Spartan rushers had to chase him around all game. Yet they also pressured him relentlessly, causing him to make enough mistakes to pull away 4th quarter. MSU's RB, Kenneth Walker IV, and WRs Jalon Nailor and Jayden Reed, are getting the attention for their playmaking, but QB Payton Thorne has been instrumental and efficient. 9 TD passes, 1 TD running, and the ability to escape the rush, and show poise under pressure.

Nebraska played well and hard in their close loss to Oklahoma. Adrian Martinez had one of his best games as a QB. But Oklahoma is overrated, as evidenced by this game and their near loss to Tulane. And Nebraska still doesn't have much of a run game, and their OL is young and still a work in progress. The Nebraska special teams, especially their kicker, are having a rough time. I think the oddsmakers think that because the Nebraska defense could keep Oklahoma from scoring much, that this will happen vs. MSU. Yet coming off a game like that, where you gave everything and lost, to a top ranked team, can take something out of you. The coulda, woulda, shouldas can make a player, and coaches, delay the recovery time to prep for the next game. Now they have to go on the road and beat a very confident team, in front of a noisy crowd that will feed off of any mistakes they make. Adrian Martinez might shine again, but he is also very capable of playing to his norm- which vs. Illinois and Buffalo wasn't all that good. Against Buffalo he had two long 68 yard passes, but otherwise Nebraska didn't put that game away until the 4th qtr. And Buffalo is not the same team this year as last, losing a ton of talent to transfers and graduation. MSU will eventually get knocked off, but I don't think it'll be this week. Mel Tucker has his team looking like a Big 10 contender. This play says they are not a fluke.

ShortBusDriver7 · Sep 20, 2021

Great writeup. Also remember that Tucker has come back from two big halftime adjustments vs Frost while at CU and upset him both games. They made great halftime adjustments vs Miami too. Frost's 2nd half performances, historically, have been dismal.

ofred · Sep 20, 2021

ShortBusDriver7 said:
Great writeup. Also remember that Tucker has come back from two big halftime adjustments vs Frost while at CU and upset him both games. They made great halftime adjustments vs Miami too. Frost's 2nd half performances, historically, have been dismal.

Thank you for this. Did not know it.

ShortBusDriver7 · Sep 20, 2021

https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401012729

https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401112239

ShortBusDriver7 · Sep 20, 2021

ShortBusDriver7 said:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401012729

https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401112239

clarification, Tucker was only the coach for the 2019 upset. Different coaching staff in 2018

ofred · Sep 21, 2021

Upping MSU -4 to 4.5*. Nebraska RB, Gabe Irvin out for the season. Nebraska hasn't really run the ball well anyways, but Irvin was getting most of the plays vs. better. teams. Markese Stepp had a good game vs. Fordham, but otherwise not much production. Adrian Martinez scrambles- that's the run game for them. Top WR Samari Toure, great games vs. Fordham and Buffalo. Only 64 total yards vs. Illinois and Oklahoma. No TDs, longest pass play in those two games, 16 yards. Michigan State is going to have a noisy, raucous crowd at Spartan Stadium Saturday evening. Nebraska special teams and offense will have to deal with it. Kenneth Walker leads CFB running backs in missed tackles by the defense- 20.

indiana · Sep 21, 2021

Fred......continued success with your action this week......

on MSU and NC St. U with you......appreciate the early thought's buddy.......indy

ofred · Sep 21, 2021

indiana said:
Fred......continued success with your action this week......

on MSU and NC St. U with you......appreciate the early thought's buddy.......indy

Thanks Indy. GL. Forgot to update Leans: 7-5. 2-0 on 2-2.5*. Most of my losses on 1*, which I plan to continue to keep at a minimum. Which is why this next play seems to contradict that:

1.4* Utah -14 (-115) The oddsmakers seem to be inviting bettors to take the Cougs at 14.5. Why not? Utah already has 2 losses, and really haven't played that well. The offense has been mediocre. However, QB Cam Rising nearly pulled out a victory at SD State. Kyle Whittingham hasn't announced the starter, but Rising is likely going to be the guy. He is more mobile than Charlie Brewer, and right now, he might be the more accurate passer.

A big part of this play is WSU's play this year, and some of the crap circling around coach Nick Rolovich. Rolovich looked unengaged, almost flat, as his team gave up 45 straight points to USC, a game they led at home 14-0. It was odd. It looked like he didn't want to communicate with his players or his other coaches on the sideline. Then there's his bullying of a former player, his vaccine drama, and I have a feeling his time at WSU might be short. His contract might be too expensive to buy out, but the Cougs looked awful Saturday and vs. Utah State in their 1st game. I noticed that once USC players got beyond the line of scrimmage, the tackling was poor. Also, QB Jayden DeLaura has a knee injury and is likely out or hobbled here. He depends a lot on his wheels, so that will reduce his effectiveness. His backups look like a big step down. This will be their first game on the road, and at Rice-Eccles, it'll be a challenge. It is one of the more boisterous stadiums in college ball, although it's a day game- which might tone it down a smidge. Utah is going to be a pissed off, motivated team, and I look for a semi-blowout.

ofred · Sep 21, 2021

3* Notre Dame/ Wisconsin- under 47 A game at Soldier's Field in Chicago, on grass. Sometimes, offenses take a little time to get used to a place they don't usually play, on a surface that is different than their own stadium's. Small factor. I just don't like the scoring possibilities for either of these teams. Notre Dame hasn't faced a defense nearly this good. They've given up 14 sacks in 3 games, and Jack Coan is not exactly fleet footed. Coan has been pretty good despite that, but if you look at his weaker outings 2019, they were against the better Big 10 teams. He's not a NFL prospect for a reason. ND has counted a lot on some big plays vs.Toledo, Purdue and FSU. They'll probably get one vs. Wisconsin, but maybe only one. Wisconsin might have only one true star on their defense, Jack Sanborn, but they personify team defense as well as any team in college football.

Wisconsin has their own trouble offensively. They struggled mightily vs. PSU(3.1 ypc), and even against a crappy EMU defense, they totally depended on physically dominating at the line of scrimmage and running the ball. Graham Mertz is really flailing. Observers could go down a laundry list of issues he's having, including a lack of confidence. ND is thin at LB depth, but does have 2 starters there, and is solid on the DL and in the secondary. I think the Badgers will go heavy with their run game and Chez Melusi. I also think we'll see a lot of short passes from both teams. Short passes and runs will tick a lot of time off the clock. Neither team does a lot of tempo. (continued later)

VegasKnows · Sep 21, 2021

Charlie Brewer has left Utah. No question who is QB there now.

Nice writeups!!! Agree with the Wisc/ND under. I got it Sunday at under 47.5.
Michigan St should handle Huskers. Defense is Huskers only hope.

GL o fred!!!

ofred · Sep 21, 2021

VegasKnows said:
Charlie Brewer has left Utah. No question who is QB there now.

Nice writeups!!! Agree with the Wisc/ND under. I got it Sunday at under 47.5.
Michigan St should handle Huskers. Defense is Huskers only hope.

GL o fred!!!

Brewer is not making himself at all attractive as an NFL prospect, both by quitting on his new team or by his performance. He'll end up at a Group of 5 team or in the FCS.

ofred · Sep 21, 2021

o fred said:
3* Notre Dame/ Wisconsin- under 47 A game at Soldier's Field in Chicago, on grass. Sometimes, offenses take a little time to get used to a place they don't usually play, on a surface that is different than their own stadium's. Small factor. I just don't like the scoring possibilities for either of these teams. Notre Dame hasn't faced a defense nearly this good. They've given up 14 sacks in 3 games, and Jack Coan is not exactly fleet footed. Coan has been pretty good despite that, but if you look at his weaker outings 2019, they were against the better Big 10 teams. He's not a NFL prospect for a reason. ND has counted a lot on some big plays vs.Toledo, Purdue and FSU. They'll probably get one vs. Wisconsin, but maybe only one. Wisconsin might have only one true star on their defense, Jack Sanborn, but they personify team defense as well as any team in college football.

Wisconsin has their own trouble offensively. They struggled mightily vs. PSU(3.1 ypc), and even against a crappy EMU defense, they totally depended on physically dominating at the line of scrimmage and running the ball. Graham Mertz is really flailing. Observers could go down a laundry list of issues he's having, including a lack of confidence. ND is thin at LB depth, but does have 2 starters there, and is solid on the DL and in the secondary. I think the Badgers will go heavy with their run game and Chez Melusi. I also think we'll see a lot of short passes from both teams. Short passes and runs will tick a lot of time off the clock. Neither team does a lot of tempo. (continued later)

I can see a similar game like Wisconsin had with Penn State, where Wisconsin runs often, maintaining control over time of possession. However, they've had problems scoring in the red zone, and Mertz has had a hard time converting 3rd downs with completed passes. Wisconsin only scored 37 TOTAL points last four Big Ten games of 2020(3 in OT). Intensely competitive game where even field goals become valuable commodities.

919 · Sep 22, 2021

Too many concussions for Brewer

Kaboom · Sep 22, 2021

Best Capper on the Site ....appreciate the write-ups Fred ...

super knowledge of these teams ....

BOL !

Recon792 · Sep 22, 2021

Thanks fred

Ilovetobet · Sep 22, 2021

Thanks Fred

ofred · Sep 22, 2021

Leans: (Less than a 1*)

App. St/ Marshall- under 59.5 These two played last season to a 17-7 score. App. State is a run heavy team and with Chase Brice being the QB, and being turnover prone, they are less likely to have him throw into coverage or on medium or long passes. Marshall gave up a ton of passing yards to ECU and Holton Ahlers, but App. State is not that kind of team to be slinging it all over. They'll want to control the time of possession on the ground in a home game where Marshall's offense will have to deal with crowd noise. The Mountaineers' offense looked good vs. Elon and a weak ECU defense, but struggled vs. Miami. App. State also might have the best defense in the Sun Belt. They were good last season and return almost everyone. Marshall QB Grant Wells started hot last season, but then tailed off badly 2/3 of the way through the year. This play says that both QBs regress a bit due to the better competition.

Syracuse +6.5 Liberty seemingly is an offensive dynamo under Malik Willis. But going back to last year, they have played an easy schedule. Like this year, Campbell, ODU and Troy with a young, new QB. All of their cumulative offensive stats should have an asterisk. I don't think they'll have a cakewalk here at all. Syracuse has good run game, a solid defense, and a lot less injuries than last season. Those talented freshmen are now a year older and more experienced. Willis is a force, but he does have a tendency to stare down his primary receiver, and in 2020, his poorest games were vs.ACC opponents. Syracuse will need to get some production out of their QBs, and really game plan for Willis to limit his effectiveness. This will be Liberty's toughest game so far, and on the road.

mrbruce · Sep 22, 2021

bol fred

ofred · Sep 22, 2021

3* Army -4.5 1H Deja Vu all over again, as Yogi Berra once said. Betting Army and MSU two weeks in a row seems like the wrong thing to do, but I think both teams are still undervalued by the oddsmakers. Bettors moved this from -7 to -8.5, so why can't I lay some $. It's kind of an odd situation for Miami, OH anyways. Right before conference play, where they should compete well in the MAC, on the road playing an offense they really can't prepare for in practice...at least, that well. The Redhawk players are probably thinking, "Who scheduled this game right before conference play?" WKU came back with a backdoor cover vs. Army, but that was after Army built a large lead. That might happen here too, although I think Army covers the 8.5 too. Army's defense has been surprisingly good the last 2 seasons. They did get torched a bit vs. Bailey Zappe(WKU), but overall, they are pretty good. Miami QB Brett Gabbert is at about 53% accuracy, and in my mind, he's a bit overrated. They also don't run the ball all that well. Miami gave Minnesota a close game, got slaughtered by UC, and beat FCS creampuff, Long Island 42-7. Army has been a great 1H team, and at home will be psyched to go 4-0.

Week 4: Follow Up?

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