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This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.
Today's Best Starting Pitchers
1. CWS - Carlos Rodon (No. 12 out of 348)
2. MIL - Freddy Peralta (No. 14)
3. OAK - Sean Manaea (No. 18)
Today's Worst Starting Pitchers
1. CLE - Logan Allen (No. 332 out of 348)
2. STL - Jake Woodford (No. 319)
3. ARI - Humberto Mejia (No. 293)
Today's Hottest Games
1. KC at CLE (82 degrees)
2. ATL at ARI (78 degrees)
3. KC at CLE (78 degrees)
Today's Coldest Games
1. BAL at PHI (71 degrees)
2. TEX at NYY (71 degrees)
3. TOR at TB (72 degrees)
THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals
· Atlanta Braves
Projected: 5.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105
· New York Yankees
Projected: 5.46 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 110
· Houston Astros
Projected: 5.45 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O + 105
THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals
· Cleveland Indians
Projected: 2.94 runs
· Baltimore Orioles
Projected: 3.37 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 105
· St. Louis Cardinals
Projected: 3.42 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O + 125
THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals
· Braves at D-Backs
Projected: 9.85 runs· Pirates at Reds
Projected: 9.80 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.0 O -120· Rangers at Yankees
Projected: 9.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O + 100
THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals
· Royals at Indians
Projected: 6.63 runs· Orioles at Phillies
Projected: 7.39 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -115· Nationals at Marlins
Projected: 7.58 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.5 O -105
GAMES OF THE DAY
Miami Marlins (63-86) vs. Washington Nationals (61-88)
O/U: 8.5 | MIA -110 | WSH -110
Jesus Luzardo (THE BAT's No. 185 SP) vs. Erick Fedde (THE BAT's No. 137 SP)
Marlins Park (No. 28 Runs | No. 29 HR | No. 16 K)
72 degrees (No. 5 coldest today)
Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)
DATA NUGGETS
· Jesus Luzardo's fastball usage (30% in 2021, 19% in 2020) has increased 11% this season
· Jesus Luzardo has been throwing a sinker (13% increase) far less often in 2021 (22% usage) than he did in 2020 (35% usage)
· Jesus Luzardo is throwing a curveball 12% more often this season (25% usage) than he did last season (13% usage)
· Erick Fedde is throwing a fastball 20% less often this season (2% usage) than he did last season (22% usage)
· Ground ball pitchers tend to perform worse against Fly ball hitters, and Erick Fedde (52% GB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today
· The Marlins are the most strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 27.7% according to THE BAT X
· According to THE BAT X, the Marlins and their 0.293 wOBA have been the No. 1 luckiest offense in 2021
· The Nationals (0.326 wOBA) have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X
BETTING INSIGHTS
· The Marlins Moneyline has steamed 10 cents as it opened at + 100 and is now -110
· The Washington Nationals Game Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 75-63 resulting in + 6.40 Units (4% ROI)
· The Miami Marlins Team Total Under has been their most profitable market this season and is 77-66 resulting in + 2.35 Units (1% ROI)
· Juan Soto's Total Bases Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+ 135/-175)
Tampa Bay Rays (92-58) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (84-65)
O/U: 8.0 | TB + 110 | TOR -130
Shane Baz (THE BAT's No. 113 SP) vs. Robbie Ray (THE BAT's No. 51 SP)
Tropicana Field (No. 29 Runs | No. 19 HR | No. 3 K)
72 degrees (No. 3 coldest today)
Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)
DATA NUGGETS
· Thus far in 2021, Robbie Ray's fastball (94.2 mph) has been nearly a full mph faster than it was last season
· Robbie Ray's fastball (2271 rpm) has lost 149 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020
· Robbie Ray is throwing a fastball 11% more often this season (60% usage) than he did last season (49% usage)
· Robbie Ray is projected to face seven opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his huge platoon split
· So far in 2021, Robbie Ray has been one of baseball's luckier starting pitchers, boasting a 2.64 ERA despite a 3.40 FIP
· The Rays (0.320 wOBA) have been the No. 4 luckiest offense in baseball this season, via THE BAT X
· The Rays have three players (Brandon Lowe, Mike Zunino, Nelson Cruz) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 6 (tie) most in MLB
· The Blue Jays (20.9 K%, via THE BAT X) have the No. 2 least strikeout-heavy projected lineup today
· The Blue Jays offense knows how to hit the ball hard; they have the No. 5 (tie) most players in MLB with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or better this year (Randal Grichuk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez)
BETTING INSIGHTS
· The Game Total has moved toward the UNDER after the Total opened at 8.5 Runs and is now 8.0 Runs
· This season the Rays Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 84-61 resulting in + 19.70 Units (10% ROI)
· The most profitable market for the Toronto Blue Jays has been their Game Total Under which is 76-64 generating + 6.45 Units (4% ROI)
· The most popular prop for the game is Robbie Ray's Strikeouts Prop which is currently priced at Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
Oakland Athletics (82-67) vs. Seattle Mariners (80-69)
O/U: 8.5 | OAK -160 | SEA + 140
Sean Manaea (THE BAT's No. 18 SP) vs. Tyler Anderson (THE BAT's No. 157 SP)
Oakland Coliseum (No. 30 Runs | No. 28 HR | No. 13 K)
72 degrees (No. 4 coldest today)
5 mph out to LF (No. 5 weakest winds today)
DATA NUGGETS
· Thus far in 2021, Sean Manaea's fastball (91.6 mph) has been 1.9 mph faster than it was last season
· Sean Manaea is throwing a fastball 54% less often this season (0% usage) than he did last season (54% usage)
· Sean Manaea's sinker usage (60% in 2021, 0% in 2020) has increased 60% this season
· Tyler Anderson (36% FB% since 2019) projects to face three Fly ball hitters today, which should play to his advantage since Fly ball pitchers perform best against Fly ball hitters
· According to THE BAT X, the Athletics and their 0.315 wOBA have been the No. 7 luckiest offense in 2021
· The Athletics have three players (Matt Chapman, Sean Murphy, Matt Olson) with a Barrel% in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 6 (tie) most in MLB
· Seattle boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Barrel% this season, No. 6 (tie) most in MLB (Kyle Seager, Luis Torrens, Mitch Haniger)
BETTING INSIGHTS
· The Athletics Moneyline has 76% of the bet tickets and 92% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle
· This season the Mariners Moneyline has been their most profitable market and is 79-68 resulting in + 22.25 Units (14% ROI)
· This season the Athletics Run Line has been their most profitable market and is 77-71 resulting in + 8.15 Units (5% ROI)
· Matt Olson's Home Runs Prop is the most popular prop for the game and is priced at Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+ 310/-560)
