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Thread: Week 7 .... Look em over good

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  1. #1 Week 7 .... Look em over good 
    RX Senior Kaboom's Avatar
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    Nice 11-5 Rec Week 6

    Few Trends to look over ...... I don't play many of these unless my further breakdown of the game warrants a play

    These are my personal trends that I dig up before the season starts ....so all I have to do is wait on the dates of the games


    CFb Trends for Week 7
    10/15 at Oregon CALIFORNIA IS 10-0 UNDER (L10G) BEFORE PLAYING COLORADO
    10/15 at Oregon CALIFORNIA IS 11-1 ATS (L12G) ON ROAD AS UNDERDOG…updated thru 9/22….........2-0 Ats this year
    10/16 at Ga KENTUCKY IS 10-0 UNDER (L10G) ON ROAD IN OCTOBER
    10/16 vs Kentucky GEORGIA IS 0-8 ATS (L8G) AT HOME BEFORE PLAYING FLORIDA
    10/16 at Lsu FLORIDA IS 6-0 OVER ( 1-0 Over this year ) (L2Y) AVENGING A LOSS
    10/16 at Miss St ALABAMA IS 1-7 ATS (L8G) AFTER PLAYING Texas A&M
    10/16 at Okla TCU IS 9-1 UNDER (L10G) ON ROAD ON GRASS FIELD
    10/16 at Usf TULSA IS 12-1 ATS (L3Y) ON ROAD includes 2-0 ats this year
    10/16 at Wash UCLA IS 9-1 UNDER (L10G) BEFORE PLAYING OREGON
    10/16 at Wash St STANFORD IS 11-0 UNDER (L10G) ON ROAD IN OCTOBER.. 1-0 Under in 2021 in October
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  2. #2  
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    How does Texas respond after blowing huge lead to Rival Sooners ?

    Meanwhile OK ST 2 weeks to prepare for Horns

    Cowboys 4-1 as an Away Dog since 2018

    Early Line I'm seeing Texas - 6.5

    When up at Draft Kings

    OK St + ?????
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  3. #3  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaboom View Post
    How does Texas respond after blowing huge lead to Rival Sooners ?

    Meanwhile OK ST 2 weeks to prepare for Horns

    Cowboys 4-1 as an Away Dog since 2018

    Early Line I'm seeing Texas - 6.5

    When up at Draft Kings

    OK St + ?????

    $20 Ok St + 6 ...... 4-1 Last 5 as Road Pup
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  4. #4  
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    2021 Pythagorean Ratings through Week 6: Pythagorean accounts for points allowed, points scored, and converts that to expected wins against an average team over the course of the 12-game season.

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  5. #5  
    F me, F U vinny vegas's Avatar
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    Interesting KBoom. PYRatings…Bama all the way to 15. Wow.
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  6. #6  
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    Quote Originally Posted by vinny vegas View Post
    Interesting KBoom. PYRatings…Bama all the way to 15. Wow.
    Yep ... this is just Win Projection .... not a ranking of any type ....just an fyi bro
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  7. #7  
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    All Plays only become official before kick-off .... I wager very little so I'm able to buy-out or cancel at any time ....just an fyi

    Plays

    $10 Colo St -220 1st Q ..... Colo St ...off a huge win of San Jose St ...so this play my be a bit risky ...but I'm going for it

    Colo St has not given up a Point in the 1st quarter all year

    New Mexico did score 1st Q Points this year ... ( 7 Points ) away at # 31 Rank Def Opposing Pts.... in Utep who has played the worst strength of

    schedule this year ........ranked dead last at # 130


    New Mexico did score 1st Q Points this year ...( 14 Points ) at home vs # 116 Ranked Def Opposing Points New Mexico St ....who plays

    yet again another weak strength of schedule rank of # 128


    This weekend ...New Mexico at home faces Colo St who has not given up a 1st Q Point .... they have a Strength of Schedule

    rank # 96 ....not great ....but better than the teams New Mexico has scored 1st Q Points this year


    Play # 2

    $20 Ok St + 6 ..... likely will be just a $7 Play
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  8. #8  
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    New Mexico may be without their starting qb Wilson ?


    Wilson did not practice today.



    Montes and Chavez took the majority of reps.


    All three met with media after practice.


    Montes has a high amount of confidence and has worked his way up to No. 2 on the depth chart since arriving in late July.


    Zero Experience for any backup ?



    Going against a solid defensive team in Colorado St .....





    TCU


    TCU coach Gary Patterson says QB Max Duggan and RB Zach Evans are both "questionable" for the OU game.


    Unlv


    Senior tight end Giovanni Fauolo will likely miss the rest of the season, per Arroyo. Fauolo left the game against UTSA with an apparent knee injury.




    Kentucky



    Stoops says 'it looks doubtful' that wide receiver Josh Ali will be able to play at Georgia
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  9. #9  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaboom View Post
    New Mexico may be without their starting qb Wilson ?


    Wilson did not practice today.


    Montes and Chavez took the majority of reps.

    All three met with media after practice.

    Montes has a high amount of confidence and has worked his way up to No. 2 on the depth chart since arriving in late July.

    Zero Experience for any backup ?


    Going against a solid defensive team in Colorado St .....




    TCU


    TCU coach Gary Patterson says QB Max Duggan and RB Zach Evans are both "questionable" for the OU game.


    Unlv


    Senior tight end Giovanni Fauolo will likely miss the rest of the season, per Arroyo. Fauolo left the game against UTSA with an apparent knee injury.


    Kentucky


    Stoops says 'it looks doubtful' that wide receiver Josh Ali will be able to play at Georgia
    Wilson, a Kentucky transfer, went out of Saturday night’s 31-7 loss to then-No. 25-ranked San Diego State (5-0, 1-0) during the fourth quarter. He came off the field with his non-throwing elbow dislocated and it took three trainers to pop it back into place, UNM coach Danny Gonzales said.

    Gonzales is hopeful Wilson will be healthy enough to play against Colorado State on Saturday, but if Wilson’s elbow swells or if it becomes severe, Gonzales will most likely determine the starter between Chavez, freshman CJ Montes and redshirt junior Trae Hall, who was recently converted to wide receiver and started in the slot in place of Mannie Logan-Greene (chest).
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  10. #10  
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    Clem ... shipley out
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  11. #11  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaboom View Post


    Play # 2

    $20 Ok St + 6 ..... likely will be just a $7 Play
    Since 2010, Oklahoma State has won five of six games in Austin, a trend that illustrated Texas’ slide in the Big 12.
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  12. #12  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biggins View Post
    Since 2010, Oklahoma State has won five of six games in Austin, a trend that illustrated Texas’ slide in the Big 12.

    Hope that holds up this week ...thx bud
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  13. #13  
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    Stanford WR Humphreys Out

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  14. #14  
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    Weird mFing line of the week
    Clemson averaging under 14 ppg(4 games) against teams not SC St
    Now favored against Syracusr by 14 on the road lol
    Either this is a printing money bet or sucker of all time
    Syracuse has not been bad either
    But Clemson has yet to cover which scares me a bit
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  15. #15  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exploited17 View Post
    Weird mFing line of the week
    Clemson averaging under 14 ppg(4 games) against teams not SC St
    Now favored against Syracusr by 14 on the road lol
    Either this is a printing money bet or sucker of all time
    Syracuse has not been bad either
    But Clemson has yet to cover which scares me a bit

    I hear ya X

    We keep waiting for the old Clemson teams to turn up ?

    This weekend should be no different ...regardless of Public being on Clemson a bit

    A stay away for me

    but lean Under in game only 1st H
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  16. #16  
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    CM

    JaCorey Sullivan WR Top TD guy with ( 6 ) and Troy Brown ( 4th in tackles with 17 ) are both out for CMU's game against Toledo

    CM Receivers




    CM on Defense

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  17. #17  
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    CFB Spreads/Totals that moved 3 points or more off the Circa World Openers went 20-15-1 vs the opening line and 18-18 vs the closing line last week. 3+ point moves YTD: Vs Open 107-61-2 (63.7%) Vs Close 87-82-1 (51.5%)



    So .... do we play Mo ...to break the streak ............or Texas A/M to continue the streak ???????? ...................Missouri has failed to cover the spread in 9 STRAIGHT games by an average of 11.6 ppg!



    2021 College Football (so far): Favorites are 326-97 straight up. Underdogs are 215-199-9 ATS. Home teams are 279-132 straight up. Away teams are 202-200-9 ATS. Unders are 220-198-5. If you bet every underdog on the money line you are -1.22 units vs consensus closing line.
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  18. #18  
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    All posted plays do not become plays until kickoff ....they are all leans .....so I can change plays via lines if needed

    $5 Under 24 1st H Ken / Ga

    $5 Tol - 3 - 155


    $7 Rutgers ML - 130

    $7 Nc St ML - 155

    $7 Ball St ML - 120


    $10 Tex A/M - 7 - 140

    $10 Colo St ML - 220 1st Q

    $10 Ok St + 6


    $25 Colo St - 9 - 130
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  19. #19  
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  20. #20  
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    PLAY AGAINST any college football road favorite off a win
    who allows more than 30 points per game

    and more than 4 yards per rush
    if they surrendered 60-plus points
    combined in its last two games.

    53-84-4 ATS mark for these teams since 1980.


    If these teams take on a foe
    that allows less than 30 points per
    game, they fall to 14-35-1 ATS,
    including 11-29-1 ATS if the host
    has managed to win 8 or more of its
    previous 28 home games.


    If these affairs occur
    before Game Seven of the season,
    the teams practically fall off the
    map, going 3-20-1 ATS.



    Play against Ole Miss


    My Play ( who I liked before this trend )


    $10 Tenn + 3

    also adding

    $7 Pitt ML

    $10 Neb ML
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  21. #21  
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    Arizona St


    14-4 ATS with revenge against an opponent coming off a SU
    underdog win, including 10-0 ATS against foes who allow 23
    or more points per game.


    $7 Arizona St + 2 - 140



    Other Trends of note



    Purdue ....8-0 as conf dogs 4 > pts...



    Game Six teams are at their best playing with the added
    benefi t of a week of rest, going 12-7 SU and 15-4 ATS. That should
    be music to the ears for Kansas State and Utah State.
    Better yet, put them at home and they respond with aplomb,
    going 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS. It’s where the Wildcats anticipate
    benefi ting from home-cooking this week. And by matching them
    up against .600 or fewer opponents, their chances of winning
    improves dramatically as the teams have gone 7-0 SUATS in this
    role.


    That applies to Chris Klieman’s Kansas Sate crew.
    So if you’re looking to put a Deep Six ‘Play Against’ team on your
    ticket this Saturday, look no further than playing against Iowa
    State and UNLV this weekend. It’s a scenario that’s simply too
    good to pass up.



    K ST lost 45-0 at Iowa St last year



    Play ... $5 K ST + 7 - 120





    Alabama head coach Nick Saban is 6-5 SU
    and 2-9 ATS during the regular season in his
    career when coming off his fi rst loss of the year
    and facing a .500 or greater opponent,
    including 0-5 ATS with the Crimson Tide.





    Memphis with Cinci game on deck



    Memphis is 0-6 ATS failure as conference chalk of 7 or more points.



    Memphis won 10-7 last year at Navy but were outgained



    Memphis ranked # 118 Total Defense ...but have same exact def rush att per yard 4.0



    as last year's team ....hmmmm



    Navy 1-4 in a must win for a minor shot at a bowl





    Can u possibly back Mia Fla this weekend ?



    College football teams in Game Six of the season
    in their first away game are 19-8 SUATS in conference play
    since 2005, including 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS.





    Army info... on fence here ... Wiscy has Iowa on deck ?



    Military teams are 14-6 ATS as
    dogs against Big Ten opposition, including 9-1 ATS when the Big Boys
    are coming off a win.





    Colo St is .....7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven contests in Series





    TAMU is 7-0 ATS in the last seven as conference road favorites





    Toledo is 7-2 ATS on
    the road when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 5-0 ATS when
    installed as a favorite........ I Played Toledo ML ... play em





    Uab feeds on weaker foes going 13-3 SUATS dating back to 2018,
    including 11-1 ATS when favored in these games.



    Payback is a bitch ... as in 2019 S Miss won at Uab 37-2



    Play .... $15 Uab - 14 - 135





    Purdue is one of only 10 teams in the nation that have out gained
    every opponent they’ve faced this season, and besides a 5-1 spread
    record on the road versus conference revenge (plus 5-2 ATS with
    rest), they have covered 3 of the last four meetings in this series.

    Brohm is also 20-9 ATS as a dog, including 8-0 ATS when coming off
    a loss, so get out your crayons and color them dangerous.


    Hawkeyes, are 1-4 ATS at home with Big Ten revenge
    (lost to Purdue 24-20 in last season’s lid-lifter).

    Ferentz is 2-7-1 ATS as a favorite in conference games after defeating
    an undefeated foe, including 0-4-1 ATS at home, as well as
    0-4-1 ATS versus winning opponents.



    My Play ... $10 Pur 1st H + 7





    All posted plays do not become plays until kickoff ....they are all leans

    .....so I can change plays via lines if needed

    $5 Under 24 1st H Ken / Ga

    $5 Tol - 3 - 155


    $7 Rutgers ML - 130

    $7 Nc St ML - 155

    $7 Ball St ML - 120 ....... on fence ...may toss ?


    $7 Arizona St + 2 - 140

    $7 Pitt ML -200


    $10 Tex A/M - 7 - 140

    $10 Colo St ML - 220 1st Q

    $10 Ok St + 6


    $10 Tenn + 3

    $10 Neb ML

    $10 Pur + 7 1st H


    $15 Uab - 14 - 135


    $25 Colo St - 9 - 130
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  22. #22  
    RX Semi-God indiana's Avatar
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    K/Boom........appreciate the solid info and thought's buddy....

    BOL with all your action this weekend......indy
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  23. #23  
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    Quote Originally Posted by indiana View Post
    K/Boom........appreciate the solid info and thought's buddy....

    BOL with all your action this weekend......indy

    You got it Indy ............BOL bro !!
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  24. #24  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaboom View Post
    Nice 11-5 Rec Week 6

    Few Trends to look over ...... I don't play many of these unless my further breakdown of the game warrants a play

    These are my personal trends that I dig up before the season starts ....so all I have to do is wait on the dates of the games


    CFb Trends for Week 7
    10/15 at Oregon CALIFORNIA IS 10-0 UNDER (L10G) BEFORE PLAYING COLORADO
    10/15 at Oregon CALIFORNIA IS 11-1 ATS (L12G) ON ROAD AS UNDERDOG…updated thru 9/22….........2-0 Ats this year
    10/16 at Ga KENTUCKY IS 10-0 UNDER (L10G) ON ROAD IN OCTOBER
    10/16 vs Kentucky GEORGIA IS 0-8 ATS (L8G) AT HOME BEFORE PLAYING FLORIDA
    10/16 at Lsu FLORIDA IS 6-0 OVER ( 1-0 Over this year ) (L2Y) AVENGING A LOSS
    10/16 at Miss St ALABAMA IS 1-7 ATS (L8G) AFTER PLAYING Texas A&M
    10/16 at Okla TCU IS 9-1 UNDER (L10G) ON ROAD ON GRASS FIELD
    10/16 at Usf TULSA IS 12-1 ATS (L3Y) ON ROAD includes 2-0 ats this year
    10/16 at Wash UCLA IS 9-1 UNDER (L10G) BEFORE PLAYING OREGON
    10/16 at Wash St STANFORD IS 11-0 UNDER (L10G) ON ROAD IN OCTOBER.. 1-0 Under in 2021 in October
    WOW, some crazy ass trends for sure!
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  25. #25  
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    South Alabama just came back out in full uniforms, and Kareem Walker is NOT dressed out. Had planned to give it a go in warm-ups, but I guess he could not.

    Leading rusher


    Linebacker Shawn Jennings not dressed out. Wearing a boot on his right ankle. Tight end Trent Tyre also not dressed out.
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