Week 7 .... Look em over good

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Nice 11-5 Rec Week 6

Few Trends to look over ...... I don't play many of these unless my further breakdown of the game warrants a play

These are my personal trends that I dig up before the season starts ....so all I have to do is wait on the dates of the games


CFb Trends for Week 7
10/15 at Oregon CALIFORNIA IS 10-0 UNDER (L10G) BEFORE PLAYING COLORADO
10/15 at Oregon CALIFORNIA IS 11-1 ATS (L12G) ON ROAD AS UNDERDOG…updated thru 9/22….........2-0 Ats this year
10/16 at GaKENTUCKY IS 10-0 UNDER (L10G) ON ROAD IN OCTOBER
10/16 vs Kentucky GEORGIA IS 0-8 ATS (L8G) AT HOME BEFORE PLAYING FLORIDA
10/16 at LsuFLORIDA IS 6-0 OVER ( 1-0 Over this year ) (L2Y) AVENGING A LOSS
10/16 at Miss St ALABAMA IS 1-7 ATS (L8G) AFTER PLAYING Texas A&M
10/16 at OklaTCU IS 9-1 UNDER (L10G) ON ROAD ON GRASS FIELD
10/16 at UsfTULSA IS 12-1 ATS (L3Y) ON ROAD includes 2-0 ats this year
10/16 at Wash UCLA IS 9-1 UNDER (L10G) BEFORE PLAYING OREGON
10/16 at Wash St STANFORD IS 11-0 UNDER (L10G) ON ROAD IN OCTOBER.. 1-0 Under in 2021 in October
 

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How does Texas respond after blowing huge lead to Rival Sooners ?

Meanwhile OK ST 2 weeks to prepare for Horns

Cowboys 4-1 as an Away Dog since 2018

Early Line I'm seeing Texas - 6.5

When up at Draft Kings

OK St + ?????
 

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How does Texas respond after blowing huge lead to Rival Sooners ?

Meanwhile OK ST 2 weeks to prepare for Horns

Cowboys 4-1 as an Away Dog since 2018

Early Line I'm seeing Texas - 6.5

When up at Draft Kings

OK St + ?????


$20 Ok St + 6 ...... 4-1 Last 5 as Road Pup
 

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2021 Pythagorean Ratings through Week 6: Pythagorean accounts for points allowed, points scored, and converts that to expected wins against an average team over the course of the 12-game season.

FBb_a1SXEAo8y0I
 

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All Plays only become official before kick-off .... I wager very little so I'm able to buy-out or cancel at any time ....just an fyi

Plays

$10 Colo St -220 1st Q ..... Colo St ...off a huge win of San Jose St ...so this play my be a bit risky ...but I'm going for it

Colo St has not given up a Point in the 1st quarter all year

New Mexico did score 1st Q Points this year ... ( 7 Points ) away at # 31 Rank Def Opposing Pts.... in Utep who has played the worst strength of

schedule this year ........ranked dead last at # 130


New Mexico did score 1st Q Points this year ...( 14 Points ) at home vs # 116 Ranked Def Opposing Points New Mexico St ....who plays

yet again another weak strength of schedule rank of # 128


This weekend ...New Mexico at home faces Colo St who has not given up a 1st Q Point .... they have a Strength of Schedule

rank # 96 ....not great ....but better than the teams New Mexico has scored 1st Q Points this year


Play # 2

$20 Ok St + 6 ..... likely will be just a $7 Play
 

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New Mexico may be without their starting qb Wilson ?


Wilson did not practice today.



Montes and Chavez took the majority of reps.


All three met with media after practice.


Montes has a high amount of confidence and has worked his way up to No. 2 on the depth chart since arriving in late July.


Zero Experience for any backup ?



Going against a solid defensive team in Colorado St .....



[h=3]Passing[/h]
Player#GATTCOMPC/ATTYDSYATTTDINTQBR
T. Wilson
561729957.61054674117.8
T. Hall
1042150.0520071.0
J. Flores
84111100.055000.0
A. Erickson
874100.000000.0
C. Montes
111100.000000.0


TCU


TCU coach Gary Patterson says QB Max Duggan and RB Zach Evans are both "questionable" for the OU game.


Unlv


Senior tight end Giovanni Fauolo will likely miss the rest of the season, per Arroyo. Fauolo left the game against UTSA with an apparent knee injury.




Kentucky



Stoops says 'it looks doubtful' that wide receiver Josh Ali will be able to play at Georgia
 

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New Mexico may be without their starting qb Wilson ?


Wilson did not practice today.


Montes and Chavez took the majority of reps.

All three met with media after practice.

Montes has a high amount of confidence and has worked his way up to No. 2 on the depth chart since arriving in late July.

Zero Experience for any backup ?


Going against a solid defensive team in Colorado St .....


Passing
Player#GATTCOMPC/ATTYDSYATTTDINTQBR
T. Wilson
561729957.61054674117.8
T. Hall
1042150.0520071.0
J. Flores
84111100.055000.0
A. Erickson
874100.000000.0
C. Montes
111100.000000.0


TCU


TCU coach Gary Patterson says QB Max Duggan and RB Zach Evans are both "questionable" for the OU game.


Unlv


Senior tight end Giovanni Fauolo will likely miss the rest of the season, per Arroyo. Fauolo left the game against UTSA with an apparent knee injury.


Kentucky


Stoops says 'it looks doubtful' that wide receiver Josh Ali will be able to play at Georgia

Wilson, a Kentucky transfer, went out of Saturday night’s 31-7 loss to then-No. 25-ranked San Diego State (5-0, 1-0) during the fourth quarter. He came off the field with his non-throwing elbow dislocated and it took three trainers to pop it back into place, UNM coach Danny Gonzales said.

Gonzales is hopeful Wilson will be healthy enough to play against Colorado State on Saturday, but if Wilson’s elbow swells or if it becomes severe, Gonzales will most likely determine the starter between Chavez, freshman CJ Montes and redshirt junior Trae Hall, who was recently converted to wide receiver and started in the slot in place of Mannie Logan-Greene (chest).
 

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Weird mFing line of the week
Clemson averaging under 14 ppg(4 games) against teams not SC St
Now favored against Syracusr by 14 on the road lol
Either this is a printing money bet or sucker of all time
Syracuse has not been bad either
But Clemson has yet to cover which scares me a bit
 

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Weird mFing line of the week
Clemson averaging under 14 ppg(4 games) against teams not SC St
Now favored against Syracusr by 14 on the road lol
Either this is a printing money bet or sucker of all time
Syracuse has not been bad either
But Clemson has yet to cover which scares me a bit


I hear ya X

We keep waiting for the old Clemson teams to turn up ?

This weekend should be no different ...regardless of Public being on Clemson a bit

A stay away for me

but lean Under in game only 1st H
 

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CM

JaCorey Sullivan WR Top TD guy with ( 6 ) and Troy Brown ( 4th in tackles with 17 ) are both out for CMU's game against Toledo

CM Receivers


[h=3]Receiving[/h]
Player#GRECYDSAVGTD
D. Dixon 663250115.75
J. Sullivan 1152436615.36
K. Pimpleton 8862634313.21
J. Wilson 8351618311.41
L. Nichols 76181307.21
R. Simmons 05710615.10
M. Bailey 26544210.50
D. Bracy 2334013.30
L. Gumms 27333010.00
M. Lukes 964266.50
K. Collins 811177.00
K. Brewer III 842166.00
J. Tafelski 231155.00
H. Buczkowski 443133.01
D. Stepney 243111.00


CM on Defense

[h=3]Defense[/h]
Player#GINTINTYDSTDSacksTKATKFRFFPDEF
G. Kreski 4615002714000
D. Reed 56120012111004
A. McCoy 3600001910013
T. Brown 8600001712013
D. Kent 1961000164004
D. McNary 2540000114004
T. Hairston 1360003108000
T. Incoom 960001105000
A. Siddiq 346000197000
K. Moretti 2250001911010
D. Hill 65000082002
R. Sturkey 373000063000
J. Whiteside 4540000.564000
G. Douglas 1760000511100
J. Bristol 1060000511000
T. Jones 295000056100
K. Gwilly 335000044000
R. Bowens III 73000042001
T. Brown 5940001.545000
J. Whiteside 794000244000
J. Williams 534000043000
L. Johnson 113000034000
N. Apsey 321000010000
T. Woods Jr. 562000011000
M. Heldman 973000012000
F. Sanchez II 143000012000
C. Gildersleeve Jr. 411000003000
Q. Lee 991000001000
C. Spann 151000002000
 

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CFB Spreads/Totals that moved 3 points or more off the Circa World Openers went 20-15-1 vs the opening line and 18-18 vs the closing line last week. 3+ point moves YTD: Vs Open 107-61-2 (63.7%) Vs Close 87-82-1 (51.5%)



So .... do we play Mo ...to break the streak ............or Texas A/M to continue the streak ???????? ...................Missouri has failed to cover the spread in 9 STRAIGHT games by an average of 11.6 ppg!



2021 College Football (so far): Favorites are 326-97 straight up. Underdogs are 215-199-9 ATS. Home teams are 279-132 straight up. Away teams are 202-200-9 ATS. Unders are 220-198-5. If you bet every underdog on the money line you are -1.22 units vs consensus closing line.
 

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All posted plays do not become plays until kickoff ....they are all leans .....so I can change plays via lines if needed

$5 Under 24 1st H Ken / Ga

$5 Tol - 3 - 155


$7 Rutgers ML - 130

$7 Nc St ML - 155

$7 Ball St ML - 120


$10 Tex A/M - 7 - 140

$10 Colo St ML - 220 1st Q

$10 Ok St + 6


$25 Colo St - 9 - 130
 

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PLAY AGAINST any college football road favorite off a win
who allows more than 30 points per game

and more than 4 yards per rush
if they surrendered 60-plus points
combined in its last two games.

53-84-4 ATS mark for these teams since 1980.


If these teams take on a foe
that allows less than 30 points per
game, they fall to 14-35-1 ATS,
including 11-29-1 ATS if the host
has managed to win 8 or more of its
previous 28 home games.


If these affairs occur
before Game Seven of the season,
the teams practically fall off the
map, going 3-20-1 ATS.



Play against Ole Miss


My Play ( who I liked before this trend )


$10 Tenn + 3

also adding

$7 Pitt ML

$10 Neb ML
 

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