IOWA -12.5 purdue
Some handicappers spend their entire lives looking for a betting opportunity that is just too good to pass up. On the order of discovering Plutonium by accident, the holy grail of sports betting is the rubber band game. What is the rubber band game? It’s when you take an entire wad of cash out of your pocket, wrap a rubber band around it and then bounce it at the betting window. You don’t even care about what the exact amount of money is wrapped by that rubber band, because you know you’ll be getting it back twice in a little over 3 hours.
So in week 7 of college football, we have a rubber band game. Everyone is blowing the Hawkeyes this season because they love to see this team win. They play great defense and their fans are beyond compare. This is a rubber band game, not because Iowa is very good – which they are. It’s a rubber band game because Purdue is overrated. When they played lousy teams, they won. When they played decent teams, they lost. They still haven’t played a great team. This week they will.
Iowa leads the nation in ball hawking on defense. To throw the ball against them is risking turnovers. They have 16 picks this year so far. The Boilermakers have scored 13 points in each of their last three games, against Notre Dame, Illinois and Minnesota. To think that they will secure more than 1 touchdown on Saturday is a fantasy. Purdue has not been able to effectively establish a consistent running game this season. They have only averaged 2.8 yards per carry and their best RB, Horvath, is out. Do you know what happens when you can’t run the ball on the road? You lose. It’s going to be 3 and out city for the Boilermakers and, though Plummer is an excellent QB, he will be facing many third and longs trying to sustain drives.
One of the big factors in liking Iowa for this game is the fact that they do have a bye next week. So even with the emotional victory over Penn State last week, they will be able to stay focused on Purdue. Think of it this way, if Penn State was home and laying 12.5 points to Purdue, would anyone have a problem laying those points? I think not. Iowa definitely has the offense to cover this spread. The two teams that they played that our similar to Purdue in strength (Indiana and Maryland), the Hawkeyes defeated by 28 and 37 points respectively.
Purdue has receiver David Bell. He’s phenomenal. Iowa lost their best corner, Riley Moss. That’s what is keeping this line from going to 20 points. Iowa will step up with Matt Hankins covering Bell as he has allowed only one first down in 229 coverage snaps. If the Hawkeyes can’t cover Bell, I am going to be all faceful. But Bell missed the Illinois game because he was all concussed. Likely getting rocked a couple of times by the Iowa headhunters will give him alligator arms.
In fact, other than Bell, Purdue looks like a MASH unit:
0/14/21 CB Cory Trice Knee is out for season
10/14/21 RB Ja'Quez Cross Personal is OUT Saturday vs Iowa
10/13/21 WR Mershawn Rice Foot is out for season
10/13/21 WR Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen Undisclosed is out for season
10/12/21 TE Payne Durham Concussion is upgraded to probable Saturday vs Iowa
10/06/21 DT Branson Deen Concussion is "?" Saturday vs Iowa
10/06/21 S Damarcus Mitchell Undisclosed is "?" Saturday vs Iowa
Once Purdue gets behind, it will be evident that they can’t catch up. Very demoralizing. At the end of the day, this game is all about the Iowa defense, which has held opposing teams to only 13 points per game. When you combine that with facing and offense that can’t run the ball, you’re left with a home team that will win easily. We’re looking at a 27-10 final score where the backdoor cover doesn’t even come close to being a factor. Iowa is my rubber band game for my 2021 Vegas trip.