****************G-Man's Week 7 NFL Perceptions / Selections.***************

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Thursday Oct 21st.

Denver VS Cleveland.

The whole world knows Baker is out according to reports. Cleveland has both Running backs listed out as well. Keenum is the starter for Cleveland.

This is the "Time Of The Season"(Zombies) to separate games played against winners and losers and evaluate those outcomes.
This game is a perfect example, because both teams have fallen recently.

These are some of the many things I look at when capping if I have time. So here goes.

Public perception is moving the line because of the injuries to Cleveland. Another reason may be that Denver has won 12 of the last 13 SU against the Browns. Nuff said about all that.

Early line posted was Browns -6. which was posted on Sunday Night at roughly 7 PM. This was AFTER the Browns were blown out by Arizona.
My point here is that Odds Makers already knew the Browns had no running game when they posted that line. Day by day the line dropped. Bakers was ruled out on Wednesday. The line is now 1.5 and will likely settle at -1.

There are two ways to assume line-movement after it is posted. No matter what the reasons are injuries etc., the movement is caused by betting action day-by-day or its moved because the original line was intentionally wrong and way off with intent.

Intent is done with already knowing what the reaction is going to be BEFORE the line is posted. Its done purposely with the advanced knowledge of the Public Betting Habits that establish nearly every line posted.
In this game it was intentional.

WHY? Because if there was no injuries - Cleveland would be at least a 10 point favorite and would cover that number. Here is why Im making that statement.
Cleveland was healthy for about 3 games on both sides of the ball. The defense had 2 games at full strength with starters. The offense had 3 games with the O-line in-tack and both Running Backs healthy at the same time.

Here we are now with all kinds of injuries. Denver is also hurting, but no one is paying attention. Bridgewater is playing with a bad ankle, that likely has caused him to throw Int's last week.
The Denver Defense has lost its 2 top linebackers. Offensively they aren't setting the world on firs on offense at all. They haven't all year. They're a 20 point offense at best, with their starters playing. Denver defense is NOT an 18pt per game defense at all. And now with major losses on defense - they would be lucky to hold any team to 27 or less.


Cleveland when healthy is a 30 point offense or more. Against a bad defensive team, they would be easily a 35-42 point offense. Now with injuries the odds say - they may only out score Denver by 1 point. That means that the public is thinking a close game - maybe 21-20 or less, based on a 1 point line.

Finally, if we had just ONE team that was at full strength, then any line posted would likely be more accurate. With two teams full of injuries that makes the TRUE odds exactly the same as if they were both healthy.

So if that was the case for this game -Cleveland would be favored by 8-10 and many would be drawn to Denver. They are still going with Denver, if you believe that the line dropping, is evidence of that. Some other posters here assume that to be the case.

What ever losses there are on the Denver defense, means that the Browns should be able to score near their average, because adequate replacement with Keenum reduces the challenge for him knowing he will have time that he wouldn't have if that Defense was at full strength. The same can be said for Bridgewater as well.

But if Cleveland has Clowny and Garrett back along with one starting DB, the Browns defense should play close to the true capacity for this game on a short week.

Advantage on both sides of the ball are still in favor of Cleveland, But the public doesnt think so, and thats why the Line has dropped.

Denver has scored over 20 points against teams that had no offense and no defense. They never reached that scoring level in the other games. For this game they are depleted which wont help them reach 20 again.

Cleveland and Keenum can still hit at least 28 points on a broken Denver defense that has little to defend with on a short week.

Play. Browns -ML -125.


 

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G/man.....BOL fwith your play tonight buddy......indy

I got this play from the "Sports Almanac"...LOL,

BOL Indy. Thanks.
 

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GL! I’m on them ATS. If they’re gonna win this game? It’s by 3+.

Fun Fact! History between these 2. Broncos are 24-6 vs Browns. Browns time to shine. Lost last one.
 

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G/man.....BOL fwith your play tonight buddy......indy

Thanks Indy.

I got this play from the "Sports Almanac"...LOL,

BOL Indy. Thanks.



Great write up and good luck tonight
Appreciate the feedback

GL! I’m on them ATS. If they’re gonna win this game? It’s by 3+.

You were right on with the 3 points+ win.
Yeah. The could have walked in for the last TD which could have been win by 10 points. They chose to kill the clock.

Fun Fact! History between these 2. Broncos are 24-6 vs Browns. Browns time to shine. Lost last one.
Keenum is 1-0 lifetime now against Denver. ...LOL

Followed along

Great call

Thx
Thanks Vinny.
 

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Sunday.


1pm
Cincinnati ++6.5 over Baltimore.
Better overall defense for Cincy allowing only 19 its per game. . SU win looks possible with Cincy pass defense being the better advantage.

Miami +1.5 over Atlanta.
Phins are back with Tago at QB

New England -7.over Jets.
Pats defense should keep Jets under 20 today.

NY Giants +3 over Carolina.
Panthers are noting like the last 2 teams the Giants faced.
NY wins this SU with Jones at QB.

Tennessee +5.5 (-140). over KC.
Chiefs still have the worst defense of any team with a winning record.

4pm
Philly +2 over Raiders.
Eagles are th best team with 1 win in the NFL. They are only being out scored by 2 points per game on the entire season. Thats impressive when you see that those games were against Atlanta, Tampa, Dallas, KC and SF. SU road win possible.

Tampa -11 over Chicago.
tampa defense should be back to normal today against a soft offense with Fields at QB. Bears do play top level defense but Brady should have enough even without Antonio Brown and Gronk.
 

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:toast:
 

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great job today
 

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GL with the action

11 is quite a lucky number but I like most of those

Like what I’m seeing. Lots of wins

great job today

Nice work

Thanks to all you guys. Appreciate the feedback.

Sunday Nighter.

San Fran -2.5 (-140) over the Colts.

The Niners played 2 weeks ago against Arizona and lost 17-10. They played with backup QB Lance and still managed to stay in the game against the great Arizona defense.
San Fran has starter Garappolo back for this game and should prevail as long as the defense can hold Wentz down.

Wentz did well against the Ravens but we now know that Baltimore isn't as good as everyone thinks and the Bengals showed that today.

The two weeks off for SF, gave them a chance to get well and should play their best game of the year tonight.

Go Joe Montana!

Play SF. Buy the point.

 

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Seattle +5.5 over New Orleans.
Second straight game the Seahawks re 5 point underdogs. Public must think that losing in Pittsburgh was indicator that they are done without Russel Wilson.
Saints are playing well defensively and one of the best teams in the league, But the offense is a different story IMO with James Winston, as far as im concerned.
He is the King of bad throws and too many interceptions.
Furthermore the Saints haven't played any winning teams except for Green Bay in week one when the Packers had a terrible day and imploded to a 38-3 loss to N.O. They have no business being favored at all in Seahawk Sea.

I believe that Geno Smith can win this and with his second start, he will likely be better than in Pittsburgh which was a decent game there.
Im backing the Seahawks again with the points.

Play Seattle +5.5
 

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