A Newbie's Perspective Toward Sports Betting (long)

Hello everyone, now listen:

I think that sports betting, especially professional sports betting, is a waste of time for the bettor. For the sportsbooks, no, but for each individual bettor, it is a waste.

Anyone may as well flip a coin and base their picks on the outcome than fade any pro capper or spend countless hours researching "significant" variables toward an "edge" on any given game or games.

Are you shaking your head as you read these words? If you are, then you may need to try an look at your behavior objectively. For example:

The best of the best cappers can barely call games significantly above 50 to 55 percent (if I'm wrong, please correct me). You, bettors, are paying the bookies a few percent just to play the game.

The few percentage points you gain by spending countless hours studying possibly important variables in any game is taken away by the bookie.

It seems that the best that even the wisest cappers can do is barely cover the sportsbooks' vig while simultaneously attempting to account for immeasurable critical factors that affect each game's outcome.

ATX, a respected capper, posted that he wins overall by spreading his bets out over many many small bets each based on his own best perception of value for each bet. When he wins, he wins small; when he loses he loses small. His strategy, it seems to this newbie, is to build his skill at picking out very subtle critical nuances of multiple games, then regardless of each game's final score, he attempts to correlate factors that, to the layperson, are invisible.

Doing what is described above give the pro capper the "edge" to profit by making thousands, or tens of thousands over years, of bets and ending up in a winning position, overall.

My point is that the only way to be successful in the sports betting game is to invest 12 hours per day over several years so that the bets one makes are just good enough to earn a 1 to 2 percent profit margin over the guaranteed bookie vig and unknown, yet critical, seeming random variables.

I am saying that sports betting, unless you are willing to devote 12 hour days over a period of several years, is a SUCKER'S BET.

Personally, I want to win in this game; however, I am not a "bookie's bookie" (nor want to be one), nor do have the time to invest in tracking minute details that may or may not be important to any game and create my own personal "rolodex" of interconnected correlations that may end with me claiming a 1 to 2 percent profit over the long haul.

What should one in my position do? Should I subscribe to a pro cappers site and fade his picks? Should I fade the free picks availabe on this board and its links (by the way, the sure thing that was posted earlier today of ATL/MIA being UNDER 34 1/2 turned out to be a flop).

I'm just offering a total newbie's perspective here with dash of critical thinking. Don't take any of my comments as being necessarily negative toward offshore sports betting. In fact, I like this game a lot -- it's just that, all things considered, I honestly don't believe I win enough to make it worth my while.

interested in prodcutive comments and opinions.

Hmmm..right out of my own mouth. I have asked the same question over and over about sports betting but I only hear how successful people are - but i cannot get proof of this.
I have been enjoying the horses and have found that it has made me money overall. Sure I get whacked some days but I am learning to keep my hands in my pockets on those days and be more patient. The biggest error is trying to make a horse "FIT" into what YOU want I think.
Anyway, good question and until I am convinced , I will remain with the livestock
cheers
sds

Sun thats good stuff,sds I LOVE the ponys,I live
1 hour from Saratoga.My take is at the track I bet win and show to build money and cover the bets then the fun begins.I drop bomb bets to win huge dollars.Last bomb five years ago $680
EX. 25 times do the math I only bring 200 to the table.I'll do the same with sports build a
little then bombs away the more you biuld the
bigger the bomb.I like may chances at the track
better but I'm not betten the dinner money and
I still remenber 34 years ago I was ten I won
$15 on a 5 team parlay football card that was the first big shot fired.So I aint no wise guy
I'm just haveing fun you guys do the same.
I'm out Joe

Sun...nice post welcome to the RX good luck on your plays

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Anyway, good question and until I am convinced , I will remain with the livestock
cheers
sds <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

thanks for the input, sds.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>My take is at the track I bet win and show to build money and cover the bets then the fun begins.I drop bomb bets to win huge dollars.Last bomb five years ago $680
EX. 25 times do the math I only bring 200 to the table.I'll do the same with sports build a
little then bombs away the more you biuld the
bigger the bomb. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I gotta admit, I LOL when I read "..the more you build, the bigger the bomb". Interesting system you have there, xoxojoe. If I read right, you made 17 large 5 years ago. That means that since 1998 all of your "bombs away" bets didn't go as planned, or did you not accumate enough in the last 5 years to "rop a bomb"? I like your method either way.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Sun...nice post welcome to the RX good luck on your plays<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Thanks for the welcome, Dante. I expected a harsh response to my original post. You see, I was calling the entire system and ways of thinking you are enwrapped in into question. You say "good luck on your plays" without addressing any points I brought up. However, I do accept your opinion, because you're 1000 times more experienced that I, in these matter. I'll assume that the doubts I raised seem commonplace, even unimportant, to you because having doubts is part of the nature of the beast in this game. anyway, thanks for the insight. peace.

Sun beast, I think your beating yourself up a little. Working 12 hours a day to eak out a 1% profit does suck.. The thing you have going is you don't have to bet. When you do bet, look at moneylines, lots of value there. If you do like a play, but can't find a good value on the ml (based off of the spread, not all ml's are the same) pass.. I do like the "fade the pro's" idea though, will keep that in the back of my head.

Very good write up

Welcome to the Rx.
I hope you find everything you need..
good luck with you plays

if there is anythig I can do to help you let me know

thanks,
Angelle

SUN LOL AWAY!!!!
nothing two zeros close to that.But the bomb bay
doors have opened!!And it takes less then 20 min. to fly over!

First off hello to everybody.
I would like to comment on TheSunIsTheBeast's closing comment "I honestly don't believe I win enough to make it worth my while."

Sir, if you win more than you lose you are one of only a very small % of bettors who does so.
To win, whatever small amount, over an extended period of time is reward enough IMO. If you gauge whether this activity is rewarding or not by taking a dollars per hour approach, you may be in the wrong business/hobby.

I Think professional handicappers are like proffessional athletes in that they are rare. Sure any over-weight, knee brace wearing chucker can hit a 3 pointer in a local pick-up game but can they compete with an Alan Iverson or a Kobe Bryant? No. Any body can pick a winner or two but can they do it on a consistent basis and clear a nice profit? Not many, but it can be done. Just because I can't make a 360 degree tomahawk jam off an alley-oop pass doesn't mean there aren't guys that can. And that's why they get paid so much is because what they do is rare compared to the general population. I see the professional sports bettor as the same thing, he or she is rare and you won't find them talking trash at some web site just like you won't find Shaq trash talking at some pick-up game in Compton. To make a good living at this you have to be the best of the best and have all the skills; money management, discipline, knowlege of the games, patience, intelligence dilligence and a large bankroll. Hell if you had all these attributes you would be successfull in alot of fields. Somebody's winning out there or why else would these books be going belly up and why is Vegas trying to ease out of the Sports betting buisness all together? They don't want the buisness of the true pro so that tells you they exist and if you are a pro the last thing you want is for people to know it.
Yeah it's a tough game but I think if you have the right skills you can win.

I gotta agree with Sun here. So many people lose at this "sport" that bookies can make a tidy profit even when they reduce their juice below the usual 110/100. There are many more ways to lose than there are to win.

First, good money management is a requirement, and my guess is that bad management is more common than good. Even if I could pick 99% winners, I'd still be certain to lose everything eventually if I bet my entire bankroll every time.

Second, gambling is highly addictive, just like alcohol or drugs. I'd no more recommend gambling as recreation than I'd recommend cocaine. I'm trying to look at my own gambling objectively enough to be aware of any addiction that might develop.

And finally, even if you make it over these hurdles, you still have to beat your opponent. Your opponent is the average bettor, because the line-makers will move the line as necessary to get half the action on each side. The sum off all bets determines where the line moves. The line-makers just follow the average bettor's decisions.

It's theoretically possible to beat the average bettor. It's similar to a professional poker player who frequents public card rooms. Even though the house takes a cut of each pot, the professional can theoretically beat the average player often enough to offset this house cut.

But this is very difficult. Losing poker players tend to go away, and winners grow larger and stick around. Soon you find yourself playing against other winning poker players. The "average player" is now just as good as you are. How are you gonna make money now?

WELCOME all to the RX nice to have you newbees here...good luck!