Early NBA Forecasts for February 9, 2004
-william foote
Boston @ Cleveland - 4:00 PM PST - Boston comes into this game fresh off a 110-80 blasting of the Sixers at Wachovia this past Saturday. The win snapped a season high six game straight up losing streak and improved the Celtics to 12-12 SU and 14-10 ATS on the road. Overall for the season, the Green and White are just 23-29 SU and 23-28-1 ATS. Despite their recent win, the Celts are playing miserable basketball right now, sitting at 3-10 SU and 4-8-1 ATS their last thirteen overall. Note that Boston is just 14-20-1 ATS vs. Eastern Conference opposition, but a decent 6-4 ATS on the road vs. teams with a losing record. Cleveland is in off being pasted 106-88 at Gund courtesy of the Wizards, putting them at a perfect 0-3 both SU and ATS their last three games overall. The Cavs are now 19-32 SU and 23-27-1 ATS for the season, as well as 13-11 SU and 12-12 ATS at home. Take note of where this line falls as Cleveland is just 2-5 ATS priced as a favorite of -3 or more, but a perfect 5-0 ATS priced as chalk of -2.5 or less. Note also that the Cavs are a dismal 7-14 ATS vs. teams with a losing record this season, including a 4-6 ATS mark at home vs. teams with a sub .500-record. The Celtics have won 13 consecutive meetings with the Cavaliers, who have not posted a victory in the series since November 4, 2000. Note also that Boston has won 11 straight visits to Cleveland. The Celts are now 8-3 ATS their last eleven vs. the Cavs, 4-1 ATS their last five visits to Gund and a perfect 3-0 ATS vs. Cleveland on the season. When all is said and done, we would only consider the Celtics in this contest. They are very decent on the road and have absolutely dominated this opponent. Early Prediction: Boston 91 - Cleveland 89
Dallas @ Atlanta - 4:30 PM PST - Dallas comes into this game at 32-18 SU and 20-30 ATS overall. This spread mark happens to be the second worst in the entire NBA behind only Orlando. On the road, the Mavs are just 10-14 SU and a disastrous 7-17 ATS for the season. The Mavericks are 3-6 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record and 8-22 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. Really and truly, we could be here all day citing awful against the spread numbers for Dallas. The point is they are overvalued in virtually every capacity. Atlanta comes into this game at 17-35 SU and 22-29-1 ATS overall, as well as 10-16 SU and 12-13-1 ATS at home. The Hawks are a decent 3-2 both SU and ATS their last five games overall and are a very nice 8-5 ATS at home vs. teams with a winning record. Note, however, that the Orange Birds are an ugly 6-15 ATS vs. Western Conference opposition this year. Dallas and Atlanta have not faced one another yet this season, but the Mavs have absolutely crushed the Birds in recent years. In fact, Dallas is a perfect 9-0 both SU and ATS the past nine series meetings. And each of the past six meetings have seen the Mavericks win by 9 or more points. Note also that the Mavs offense is hitting on all cylinders right now, having scored 106+ points in nine of their last eleven games. All in all, we would only consider Dallas tonight. The Hawks do not match up well vs. the Western Conference and the Mavs have owned this series. Early Prediction: Dallas 109 - Atlanta 99
Memphis @ Denver - 6:00 PM PST - Memphis was in Minnesota last night and is an astonishing 8-3-1 ATS on zero rest this season. Heading into that contest, the Grizzlies were 28-20 SU and 27-20-1 ATS for the season. Away from Graceland, the Grizzlies were 10-14 SU and 11-11-2 ATS. Memphis is just 4-8 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record, but a solid 10-4 ATS priced as a pup of +5 or less this season. Denver was at Sacramento last night and is just 6-9 ATS on zero days rest. Heading into Sunday, the Nuggets were 29-22 SU and 27-24 ATS overall. At home, Denver is a solid 19-8 SU and 16-11 ATS. Note also that the Nuggets are 11-5 ATS at home vs. teams with a winning record. Memphis and Denver have faced off twice this season, one time at each venue, and the home team is a perfect 2-0 both SU and ATS in those meetings. Dating back further, the host is a perfect 4-0 ATS the past four meetings and a perfect 8-0 SU the past eight meetings. We will need to review each team's results from last night before making a final decision here, but at press we have a slight lean to the home standing Nuggets. Early Prediction: Denver 101 - Memphis 95
San Antonio @ Houston - 6:30 PM PST - San Antonio will be playing their fourth straight road game tonight and is a perfect 3-0 both SU and ATS their previous three. They are in off a fantastic 102-94 win at Arco vs. the Kings on Friday night; putting them at 4-0 SU their last four games overall. For the season, the Spurs are 34-18 SU and 29-22-1 ATS. Away from the SBC Center, they are 16-11 both SU and ATS. SA is 20-13 ATS off a SU win, 15-12 ATS vs. Western Conference opposition and 7-4 ATS priced as a favorite of -4.5 or less. Houston is in off an 86-77 win at Atlanta and is now 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS their last three. Dating back a bit further, however, the Rockets are just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS. This streak puts Houston at 29-21 SU and 25-25 ATS overall, as well as 16-7 SU and 11-12 ATS at home for the season. As noted on numerous occasions, Jeff Van Gundy's team fairs extremely well vs. the Eastern Conference and also vs. lower echelon opponents. Matched up vs. the West, however, his team is a back breaking 9-17 ATS. In addition, they are 4-8 ATS vs. division opponents and just 5-7 ATS at home vs. teams with a losing record. San Antonio and Houston have faced off twice this season, once at each venue, and the Spurs are a perfect 2-0 both SU and ATS in those meetings. Dating back further, San Antonio is 4-0 both SU and ATS the past four meetings. In the end, we will strongly consider the red-hot visitor this evening. They have a boatload of technical support and more importantly are the much stronger team. Early Prediction: San Antonio 85 - Houston 78
-william foote
Boston @ Cleveland - 4:00 PM PST - Boston comes into this game fresh off a 110-80 blasting of the Sixers at Wachovia this past Saturday. The win snapped a season high six game straight up losing streak and improved the Celtics to 12-12 SU and 14-10 ATS on the road. Overall for the season, the Green and White are just 23-29 SU and 23-28-1 ATS. Despite their recent win, the Celts are playing miserable basketball right now, sitting at 3-10 SU and 4-8-1 ATS their last thirteen overall. Note that Boston is just 14-20-1 ATS vs. Eastern Conference opposition, but a decent 6-4 ATS on the road vs. teams with a losing record. Cleveland is in off being pasted 106-88 at Gund courtesy of the Wizards, putting them at a perfect 0-3 both SU and ATS their last three games overall. The Cavs are now 19-32 SU and 23-27-1 ATS for the season, as well as 13-11 SU and 12-12 ATS at home. Take note of where this line falls as Cleveland is just 2-5 ATS priced as a favorite of -3 or more, but a perfect 5-0 ATS priced as chalk of -2.5 or less. Note also that the Cavs are a dismal 7-14 ATS vs. teams with a losing record this season, including a 4-6 ATS mark at home vs. teams with a sub .500-record. The Celtics have won 13 consecutive meetings with the Cavaliers, who have not posted a victory in the series since November 4, 2000. Note also that Boston has won 11 straight visits to Cleveland. The Celts are now 8-3 ATS their last eleven vs. the Cavs, 4-1 ATS their last five visits to Gund and a perfect 3-0 ATS vs. Cleveland on the season. When all is said and done, we would only consider the Celtics in this contest. They are very decent on the road and have absolutely dominated this opponent. Early Prediction: Boston 91 - Cleveland 89
Dallas @ Atlanta - 4:30 PM PST - Dallas comes into this game at 32-18 SU and 20-30 ATS overall. This spread mark happens to be the second worst in the entire NBA behind only Orlando. On the road, the Mavs are just 10-14 SU and a disastrous 7-17 ATS for the season. The Mavericks are 3-6 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record and 8-22 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. Really and truly, we could be here all day citing awful against the spread numbers for Dallas. The point is they are overvalued in virtually every capacity. Atlanta comes into this game at 17-35 SU and 22-29-1 ATS overall, as well as 10-16 SU and 12-13-1 ATS at home. The Hawks are a decent 3-2 both SU and ATS their last five games overall and are a very nice 8-5 ATS at home vs. teams with a winning record. Note, however, that the Orange Birds are an ugly 6-15 ATS vs. Western Conference opposition this year. Dallas and Atlanta have not faced one another yet this season, but the Mavs have absolutely crushed the Birds in recent years. In fact, Dallas is a perfect 9-0 both SU and ATS the past nine series meetings. And each of the past six meetings have seen the Mavericks win by 9 or more points. Note also that the Mavs offense is hitting on all cylinders right now, having scored 106+ points in nine of their last eleven games. All in all, we would only consider Dallas tonight. The Hawks do not match up well vs. the Western Conference and the Mavs have owned this series. Early Prediction: Dallas 109 - Atlanta 99
Memphis @ Denver - 6:00 PM PST - Memphis was in Minnesota last night and is an astonishing 8-3-1 ATS on zero rest this season. Heading into that contest, the Grizzlies were 28-20 SU and 27-20-1 ATS for the season. Away from Graceland, the Grizzlies were 10-14 SU and 11-11-2 ATS. Memphis is just 4-8 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record, but a solid 10-4 ATS priced as a pup of +5 or less this season. Denver was at Sacramento last night and is just 6-9 ATS on zero days rest. Heading into Sunday, the Nuggets were 29-22 SU and 27-24 ATS overall. At home, Denver is a solid 19-8 SU and 16-11 ATS. Note also that the Nuggets are 11-5 ATS at home vs. teams with a winning record. Memphis and Denver have faced off twice this season, one time at each venue, and the home team is a perfect 2-0 both SU and ATS in those meetings. Dating back further, the host is a perfect 4-0 ATS the past four meetings and a perfect 8-0 SU the past eight meetings. We will need to review each team's results from last night before making a final decision here, but at press we have a slight lean to the home standing Nuggets. Early Prediction: Denver 101 - Memphis 95
San Antonio @ Houston - 6:30 PM PST - San Antonio will be playing their fourth straight road game tonight and is a perfect 3-0 both SU and ATS their previous three. They are in off a fantastic 102-94 win at Arco vs. the Kings on Friday night; putting them at 4-0 SU their last four games overall. For the season, the Spurs are 34-18 SU and 29-22-1 ATS. Away from the SBC Center, they are 16-11 both SU and ATS. SA is 20-13 ATS off a SU win, 15-12 ATS vs. Western Conference opposition and 7-4 ATS priced as a favorite of -4.5 or less. Houston is in off an 86-77 win at Atlanta and is now 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS their last three. Dating back a bit further, however, the Rockets are just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS. This streak puts Houston at 29-21 SU and 25-25 ATS overall, as well as 16-7 SU and 11-12 ATS at home for the season. As noted on numerous occasions, Jeff Van Gundy's team fairs extremely well vs. the Eastern Conference and also vs. lower echelon opponents. Matched up vs. the West, however, his team is a back breaking 9-17 ATS. In addition, they are 4-8 ATS vs. division opponents and just 5-7 ATS at home vs. teams with a losing record. San Antonio and Houston have faced off twice this season, once at each venue, and the Spurs are a perfect 2-0 both SU and ATS in those meetings. Dating back further, San Antonio is 4-0 both SU and ATS the past four meetings. In the end, we will strongly consider the red-hot visitor this evening. They have a boatload of technical support and more importantly are the much stronger team. Early Prediction: San Antonio 85 - Houston 78
