July 8th MLB from Buzz Word Sports:
Colorado @ Arizona 9:35 PM EST
Arizona -185 over Colorado (5 Units)
Sometimes we get a pitching matchup that is such a mismatch that we have no choice but to hammer the favorite, even if the line is a touch higher than what we might normally play for 5 units... such is the case in tonight's game between the Diamondbacks and Rockies, as Brandon Webb's performance in his brief career makes him an exceptional play against Denny Neagle, who has been torched time and again by the Diamondbacks over the past several seasons...
Starting with Brandon Webb, his performance since reaching the majors has been just downright superb, as Webb has YET to allow more than three runs in twelve starts and one relief appearance... and considering that Webb has gone at least six innings in each and every one of his starts, we're now looking at a pitcher who has started off his major league career with twelve consecutive quality starts... it's no wonder that the Diamondbacks have won eight of his last nine starts, with such consistency on the mound leading the way... Webb even tamed the Rockies earlier this season in Coors Field, allowing just one run over seven strong innings to pick up the win... with the tables turned and these teams now facing off in Arizona (where the Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last ten games against Colorado, and 13-2 in their last fifteen home games overall), Webb looks to piece together another dominant effort...
The same cannot be expected of lefty Denny Neagle, whose last two starts against the Diamondbacks are the stuff retirements are made of... in allowing 14 runs in just five innings, Neagle has now allowed at LEAST five runs in five of his last six starts against the D'Backs, with his BEST effort in that span being a five-inning three-run performance which still pares in comparison to Webb's WORST start of the year... overall, Neagle has allowed 33 runs (30 earned) in his last 25 innings against Arizona, for a laughable 10.80 ERA... and when the entire Arizona team is batting a whopping .344 with 10 HRs and 52 RBIs in their career against Neagle (restrict the parameters to Arizona position players, and that average climbs to .356), you just know that Colorado is in for a long evening in this one... don't even blink on this one - fire away on the Diamondbacks as they cruise to a dominating win...
FINAL PREDICTION: ARIZONA 8, COLORADO 2
Philadelphia @ Montreal 7:05 PM EST
Montreal -110 over Philadelphia (4 Units)
Just when it looked like the Phillies were ready to challenge the Braves for the NL East title, their offense has once again stagnated, with the team scoring just nine total runs in their last four games, all Philadelphia losses that have dropped them to 8.5 games back in the division, with the Expos just one half game behind Philly for second place...
Montreal looks to leapfrog their way back into second with a win in tonight's contest, and with Claudio Vargas on the mound, their chances look very solid indeed... after all, Vargas has been terrific since joining the big leagues, with a 6-3 record and a 2.82 ERA on the year, highlighted by an exceptional 3-0, 1.72 mark at home and a 4-0, 2.20 ERA in night games... Vargas has gotten stronger as the year has progressed, with an exceptional 1.80 ERA over his past seven starts, including a five-inning one-run performance in Philly to start that run...
Brett Myers is another terrific young pitcher, as his first full season with the Phillies has seem him establish himself as a future star in this league... however, Myers has had one weakness as of late, and that his been his performance on the road, where he has now given up at least four runs in each of his last four starts, and a total of 18 runs in his last 24.1 innings (for a 6.66 ERA that must have Lucifer smiling)... included in those starts was a contest against the Expos where Myers allowed four runs in 6.2 innings of work...
While allowing four runs is not a horrific performance by any means, it is not the type of thing that will get the job done when your team has scored more than four runs just once in their last nine games... the Expos, on the other hand, have scored at least five runs in six of their last seven games overall, and are a very strong 6-2 in their last eight home games against the Phillies... with the home team now 6-0 in the last six contests between these teams (and 10-2 in the last twelve), we're loving the Expos at what amounts to little more than a pick 'em...
FINAL PREDICTION: MONTREAL 4, PHILADELPHIA 2
Cincinnati @ Houston 8:05 PM EST
Cincinnati +155 over Houston (4 Units)
Initially, we were ready to jump on the Houston Astros in this contest, as the Reds have had all types of problems scoring runs at Enron Field over the past couple of seasons... however, two exceptions to this case have both taken place when Tim Redding has faced the Reds, as Cincinnati has pounded Redding for five runs in each of his two career starts against them, allowing a total of ten runs in just nine innings of work... and considering that the Reds lineup is batting a whopping .429 (12 for 28) in their career against Redding, we would not be surprised in the least to see the Reds break out of their slump this evening...
Speaking of slumps, Tim Redding has fallen on hard times after starting off the season looking like a potential stud for the Astros... in his last five appearances (including four starts which all turned into Houston losses), Redding is a horrendous 0-4 with a 6.05 ERA... and with just one quality start in his last six tries, Redding is not the type of pitcher that we want to support at this bloated line...
Jimmy Haynes' numbers on the year might be ugly enough to convince most to go with the Astros, but take a snapshot of his performance over the past couple of months, and you'd be surprised to learn that Haynes has actually been pitching quite well since bottoming out at the beginning of the year... in fact, not only has Haynes allowed three runs or less in six of his last eight starts overall, but he has given up just four earned runs in his last 18.1 innings, a performance that has given Haynes a 1.96 ERA in that timeframe... Haynes has been especially solid on the road, giving up just three earned runs in his last 17 road innings for a 1.59 ERA...
Similar to how Haynes has turned around his 2003 season, his recent performances against the Astros help to make up for dismal showings earlier in his career... for while Haynes is just 1-5 with a 6.50 ERA in nine career starts against the Astros, his last four performances have been superb, as Haynes has allowed just six runs in 21.2 innings against Houston (for a 2.49 ERA), and Cincinnati has been able to take three of those four contests, with the sole defeat coming by a final score of 2-1...
Appearances can be deceiving when comparing Tim Redding (4-8, 4.07 ERA) to Jimmy Haynes (1-8, 5.75 ERA) on their entire 2003 totals... however, when comparing these pitchers over the past month or so, Jimmy Haynes' 1.96 ERA over his past three starts downright ridicules Redding's 6.05 ERA in his last four games... toss in the fact that Haynes has experienced recent success against the Astros, while Redding has been nothing but disappointing against the Reds, and we have a very strong underdog play this evening on the Reds...
FINAL PREDICTION: CINCINNATI 6, HOUSTON 3
OTHER PLAYS (no analysis):
Kansas City @ Anaheim 10:05 PM EST
Anaheim -175 over Kansas City (1 Unit)
Anaheim/Kansas City Under 9.5 (3.5 Units)
Tampa Bay @ Oakland 10:05 PM EST
Oakland -1.5 runs (-160) over Tampa Bay (3 Units)
Minnesota @ Texas 8:05 PM EST
Texas +100 over Minnesota (2 Units)
Los Angeles @ San Diego 10:05 PM EST
San Diego -120 over Los Angeles (2 Units)
Boston @ Toronto 7:05 PM EST
Toronto -145 over Boston (1 Unit)
White Sox @ Detroit 7:05 PM EST
Detroit +180 over White Sox (1 Unit)
Baltimore @ Seattle 10:05 PM EST
Seattle -220 over Baltimore (1 Unit)
Thanks for reading and best of luck!
Colorado @ Arizona 9:35 PM EST
Arizona -185 over Colorado (5 Units)
Sometimes we get a pitching matchup that is such a mismatch that we have no choice but to hammer the favorite, even if the line is a touch higher than what we might normally play for 5 units... such is the case in tonight's game between the Diamondbacks and Rockies, as Brandon Webb's performance in his brief career makes him an exceptional play against Denny Neagle, who has been torched time and again by the Diamondbacks over the past several seasons...
Starting with Brandon Webb, his performance since reaching the majors has been just downright superb, as Webb has YET to allow more than three runs in twelve starts and one relief appearance... and considering that Webb has gone at least six innings in each and every one of his starts, we're now looking at a pitcher who has started off his major league career with twelve consecutive quality starts... it's no wonder that the Diamondbacks have won eight of his last nine starts, with such consistency on the mound leading the way... Webb even tamed the Rockies earlier this season in Coors Field, allowing just one run over seven strong innings to pick up the win... with the tables turned and these teams now facing off in Arizona (where the Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last ten games against Colorado, and 13-2 in their last fifteen home games overall), Webb looks to piece together another dominant effort...
The same cannot be expected of lefty Denny Neagle, whose last two starts against the Diamondbacks are the stuff retirements are made of... in allowing 14 runs in just five innings, Neagle has now allowed at LEAST five runs in five of his last six starts against the D'Backs, with his BEST effort in that span being a five-inning three-run performance which still pares in comparison to Webb's WORST start of the year... overall, Neagle has allowed 33 runs (30 earned) in his last 25 innings against Arizona, for a laughable 10.80 ERA... and when the entire Arizona team is batting a whopping .344 with 10 HRs and 52 RBIs in their career against Neagle (restrict the parameters to Arizona position players, and that average climbs to .356), you just know that Colorado is in for a long evening in this one... don't even blink on this one - fire away on the Diamondbacks as they cruise to a dominating win...
FINAL PREDICTION: ARIZONA 8, COLORADO 2
Philadelphia @ Montreal 7:05 PM EST
Montreal -110 over Philadelphia (4 Units)
Just when it looked like the Phillies were ready to challenge the Braves for the NL East title, their offense has once again stagnated, with the team scoring just nine total runs in their last four games, all Philadelphia losses that have dropped them to 8.5 games back in the division, with the Expos just one half game behind Philly for second place...
Montreal looks to leapfrog their way back into second with a win in tonight's contest, and with Claudio Vargas on the mound, their chances look very solid indeed... after all, Vargas has been terrific since joining the big leagues, with a 6-3 record and a 2.82 ERA on the year, highlighted by an exceptional 3-0, 1.72 mark at home and a 4-0, 2.20 ERA in night games... Vargas has gotten stronger as the year has progressed, with an exceptional 1.80 ERA over his past seven starts, including a five-inning one-run performance in Philly to start that run...
Brett Myers is another terrific young pitcher, as his first full season with the Phillies has seem him establish himself as a future star in this league... however, Myers has had one weakness as of late, and that his been his performance on the road, where he has now given up at least four runs in each of his last four starts, and a total of 18 runs in his last 24.1 innings (for a 6.66 ERA that must have Lucifer smiling)... included in those starts was a contest against the Expos where Myers allowed four runs in 6.2 innings of work...
While allowing four runs is not a horrific performance by any means, it is not the type of thing that will get the job done when your team has scored more than four runs just once in their last nine games... the Expos, on the other hand, have scored at least five runs in six of their last seven games overall, and are a very strong 6-2 in their last eight home games against the Phillies... with the home team now 6-0 in the last six contests between these teams (and 10-2 in the last twelve), we're loving the Expos at what amounts to little more than a pick 'em...
FINAL PREDICTION: MONTREAL 4, PHILADELPHIA 2
Cincinnati @ Houston 8:05 PM EST
Cincinnati +155 over Houston (4 Units)
Initially, we were ready to jump on the Houston Astros in this contest, as the Reds have had all types of problems scoring runs at Enron Field over the past couple of seasons... however, two exceptions to this case have both taken place when Tim Redding has faced the Reds, as Cincinnati has pounded Redding for five runs in each of his two career starts against them, allowing a total of ten runs in just nine innings of work... and considering that the Reds lineup is batting a whopping .429 (12 for 28) in their career against Redding, we would not be surprised in the least to see the Reds break out of their slump this evening...
Speaking of slumps, Tim Redding has fallen on hard times after starting off the season looking like a potential stud for the Astros... in his last five appearances (including four starts which all turned into Houston losses), Redding is a horrendous 0-4 with a 6.05 ERA... and with just one quality start in his last six tries, Redding is not the type of pitcher that we want to support at this bloated line...
Jimmy Haynes' numbers on the year might be ugly enough to convince most to go with the Astros, but take a snapshot of his performance over the past couple of months, and you'd be surprised to learn that Haynes has actually been pitching quite well since bottoming out at the beginning of the year... in fact, not only has Haynes allowed three runs or less in six of his last eight starts overall, but he has given up just four earned runs in his last 18.1 innings, a performance that has given Haynes a 1.96 ERA in that timeframe... Haynes has been especially solid on the road, giving up just three earned runs in his last 17 road innings for a 1.59 ERA...
Similar to how Haynes has turned around his 2003 season, his recent performances against the Astros help to make up for dismal showings earlier in his career... for while Haynes is just 1-5 with a 6.50 ERA in nine career starts against the Astros, his last four performances have been superb, as Haynes has allowed just six runs in 21.2 innings against Houston (for a 2.49 ERA), and Cincinnati has been able to take three of those four contests, with the sole defeat coming by a final score of 2-1...
Appearances can be deceiving when comparing Tim Redding (4-8, 4.07 ERA) to Jimmy Haynes (1-8, 5.75 ERA) on their entire 2003 totals... however, when comparing these pitchers over the past month or so, Jimmy Haynes' 1.96 ERA over his past three starts downright ridicules Redding's 6.05 ERA in his last four games... toss in the fact that Haynes has experienced recent success against the Astros, while Redding has been nothing but disappointing against the Reds, and we have a very strong underdog play this evening on the Reds...
FINAL PREDICTION: CINCINNATI 6, HOUSTON 3
OTHER PLAYS (no analysis):
Kansas City @ Anaheim 10:05 PM EST
Anaheim -175 over Kansas City (1 Unit)
Anaheim/Kansas City Under 9.5 (3.5 Units)
Tampa Bay @ Oakland 10:05 PM EST
Oakland -1.5 runs (-160) over Tampa Bay (3 Units)
Minnesota @ Texas 8:05 PM EST
Texas +100 over Minnesota (2 Units)
Los Angeles @ San Diego 10:05 PM EST
San Diego -120 over Los Angeles (2 Units)
Boston @ Toronto 7:05 PM EST
Toronto -145 over Boston (1 Unit)
White Sox @ Detroit 7:05 PM EST
Detroit +180 over White Sox (1 Unit)
Baltimore @ Seattle 10:05 PM EST
Seattle -220 over Baltimore (1 Unit)
Thanks for reading and best of luck!
